January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

[jaxjagman]

Euro already looks better than last evening,it also did the same the night before,where its at right now

 

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z JAN24
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
THU 12Z 24-JAN                  27.5    20.6    30007   0.00    0.00     100    
THU 18Z 24-JAN  36.2    27.5    36.5    21.1    29005   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 00Z 25-JAN  40.4    34.2    34.0    23.7    29005   0.00    0.00      33    
FRI 06Z 25-JAN  34.0    28.8    28.6    21.0    32007   0.00    0.00      33    
FRI 12Z 25-JAN  28.6    18.1    17.9     2.4    33006   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 18Z 25-JAN  27.3    16.3    27.6     4.2    30002   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 00Z 26-JAN  31.8    25.3    25.4    11.4    19004   0.00    0.00      93    
SAT 06Z 26-JAN  27.6    24.7    27.6    10.1    21005   0.00    0.00      97    
SAT 12Z 26-JAN  29.6    26.1    26.0    15.4    23005   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 18Z 26-JAN  41.8    25.5    42.1    23.1    24005   0.00    0.00      14    
SUN 00Z 27-JAN  44.4    35.7    35.5    25.9    19006   0.00    0.00       1    
SUN 06Z 27-JAN  35.7    33.4    33.9    28.8    20008   0.00    0.00      54    
SUN 12Z 27-JAN  35.0    33.7    33.7    32.2    20006   0.00    0.00      98    
SUN 18Z 27-JAN  48.1    33.4    48.3    35.9    22006   0.00    0.00      92    
MON 00Z 28-JAN  49.2    39.7    39.5    38.0    25004   0.05    0.00      31    
MON 06Z 28-JAN  39.5    33.3    35.1    34.2    29003   0.00    0.00      53    
MON 12Z 28-JAN  35.2    29.9    31.1    30.7    16004   0.00    0.00      86    
MON 18Z 28-JAN  51.8    30.9    52.1    38.1    20009   0.00    0.00      71    
TUE 00Z 29-JAN  55.0    47.6    47.5    37.4    20007   0.00    0.00      93    
TUE 06Z 29-JAN  47.5    43.6    43.7    37.4    23005   0.00    0.00      99    
TUE 12Z 29-JAN  43.8    23.5    23.2    17.1    33011   0.17    0.14     100   

[jaxjagman]

Stopped at .23,last night Euro only showed .09,better than nothing if it's right

[weathertree4u]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

So yeah, Euro just said hold my beer. Will post when it runs out far enough for a gif. 

Bring it!

[jaxjagman]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA    LAT=  35.03 LON=  -85.20 ELE=   689

                                            12Z JAN24
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
THU 12Z 24-JAN                  31.4    29.0    30007   0.00    0.00      98    
THU 18Z 24-JAN  36.5    30.5    36.8    21.7    31006   0.00    0.00       3    
FRI 00Z 25-JAN  41.3    34.5    34.4    23.2    29006   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 06Z 25-JAN  34.4    30.4    30.5    22.9    30004   0.00    0.00      46    
FRI 12Z 25-JAN  30.5    25.2    25.1    19.6    33006   0.00    0.00      16    
FRI 18Z 25-JAN  33.9    23.9    34.1     9.0    30003   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 00Z 26-JAN  37.3    29.6    29.3    12.8    28005   0.00    0.00       6    
SAT 06Z 26-JAN  29.6    25.2    25.9    13.2    22004   0.00    0.00      60    
SAT 12Z 26-JAN  26.9    24.2    26.9    15.0    24003   0.00    0.00      92    
SAT 18Z 26-JAN  42.0    26.8    42.3    23.1    27005   0.00    0.00      62    
SUN 00Z 27-JAN  44.4    35.7    35.3    24.7    20004   0.00    0.00      10    
SUN 06Z 27-JAN  35.4    29.9    29.9    25.9    20004   0.00    0.00       1    
SUN 12Z 27-JAN  30.3    29.2    30.1    26.9    19005   0.00    0.00      97    
SUN 18Z 27-JAN  46.1    30.1    46.3    33.1    21005   0.00    0.00      97    
MON 00Z 28-JAN  48.5    40.3    40.1    38.0    23005   0.02    0.00      32    
MON 06Z 28-JAN  40.1    33.1    33.8    33.5    20004   0.00    0.00      61    
MON 12Z 28-JAN  35.8    32.0    35.5    35.2    16003   0.00    0.00      96    
MON 18Z 28-JAN  50.4    35.3    50.8    39.1    20006   0.00    0.00      17    
TUE 00Z 29-JAN  54.7    45.8    45.6    36.9    20006   0.00    0.00      26    
TUE 06Z 29-JAN  45.7    42.1    42.8    39.7    18006   0.00    0.00      93    
TUE 12Z 29-JAN  43.9    42.2    42.7    41.8    21005   0.01    0.00     100    
TUE 18Z 29-JAN  43.1    24.3    24.2    14.6    32010   0.23    0.17      93    
WED 00Z 30-JAN  26.6    21.3    21.2     6.9    31008   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 06Z 30-JAN  21.2    16.9    16.8     3.8    24004   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 12Z 30-JAN  18.9    16.8    18.5     6.0    28006   0.00    0.00       0 

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS    LAT=  35.82 LON=  -83.98 ELE=   981

                                            12Z JAN24
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
THU 12Z 24-JAN                  34.6    33.7    30006   0.00    0.00     100    
THU 18Z 24-JAN  34.6    30.5    31.9    22.8    30005   0.01    0.01      97    
FRI 00Z 25-JAN  36.7    30.7    31.2    20.4    26004   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 06Z 25-JAN  31.7    27.6    27.6    21.2    24004   0.00    0.00      18    
FRI 12Z 25-JAN  27.9    24.6    24.5    19.1    27005   0.00    0.00      58    
FRI 18Z 25-JAN  31.9    23.4    32.0    10.6    26003   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 00Z 26-JAN  33.9    26.6    26.6    12.4    19004   0.00    0.00      45    
SAT 06Z 26-JAN  27.3    23.6    24.6     9.9    22004   0.00    0.00      81    
SAT 12Z 26-JAN  26.3    24.2    25.6     9.4    21005   0.00    0.00      84    
SAT 18Z 26-JAN  38.8    25.6    39.0    19.9    25007   0.00    0.00      19    
SUN 00Z 27-JAN  41.5    33.3    33.1    21.6    19004   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 06Z 27-JAN  33.1    29.5    29.8    21.7    20005   0.00    0.00       5    
SUN 12Z 27-JAN  30.1    28.9    29.5    24.6    19004   0.00    0.00      69    
SUN 18Z 27-JAN  46.2    29.2    46.3    32.1    23008   0.00    0.00      64    
MON 00Z 28-JAN  47.0    38.3    38.0    31.9    22005   0.00    0.00      63    
MON 06Z 28-JAN  38.7    35.3    35.8    34.7    22005   0.01    0.00      93    
MON 12Z 28-JAN  36.2    33.8    34.9    34.0    20003   0.00    0.00      81    
MON 18Z 28-JAN  49.0    34.8    49.3    36.7    22007   0.00    0.00      48    
TUE 00Z 29-JAN  53.0    44.0    43.9    34.2    20006   0.00    0.00      53    
TUE 06Z 29-JAN  44.0    41.7    42.5    38.1    21005   0.00    0.00      97    
TUE 12Z 29-JAN  44.3    41.8    43.4    40.3    20007   0.01    0.00     100    
TUE 18Z 29-JAN  44.1    24.2    23.9    19.0    30007   0.40    0.29     100    
WED 00Z 30-JAN  23.9    18.9    18.9     8.5    29007   0.07    0.07      24    
WED 06Z 30-JAN  18.8     4.2     6.5    -4.2    22004   0.00    0.00       1   

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI    LAT=  36.47 LON=  -82.40 ELE=  1519

                                            12Z JAN24
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
THU 12Z 24-JAN                  41.3    40.6    29009   0.00    0.00     100    
THU 18Z 24-JAN  41.4    31.0    31.2    24.7    28008   0.12    0.05     100    
FRI 00Z 25-JAN  31.9    27.3    27.2    18.9    26005   0.00    0.00       2    
FRI 06Z 25-JAN  27.2    24.4    24.3    17.5    26005   0.00    0.00      44    
FRI 12Z 25-JAN  26.3    24.3    25.8    19.6    27008   0.00    0.00      74    
FRI 18Z 25-JAN  30.5    23.7    30.6     5.0    27007   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 00Z 26-JAN  32.3    25.2    25.0    10.6    24005   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 06Z 26-JAN  25.1    22.2    22.8     9.0    22004   0.00    0.00      85    
SAT 12Z 26-JAN  23.7    22.2    22.2     6.9    22004   0.00    0.00      61    
SAT 18Z 26-JAN  36.5    22.2    36.7     9.4    24008   0.00    0.00      14    
SUN 00Z 27-JAN  38.4    29.4    29.3    18.2    21006   0.00    0.00       1    
SUN 06Z 27-JAN  29.4    26.6    27.0    17.8    18004   0.00    0.00       1    
SUN 12Z 27-JAN  27.3    25.1    25.3    17.6    14004   0.00    0.00      90    
SUN 18Z 27-JAN  44.8    25.2    44.8    26.7    24009   0.01    0.01      87    
MON 00Z 28-JAN  44.8    33.0    33.1    29.7    21003   0.01    0.00      19    
MON 06Z 28-JAN  33.9    30.7    32.6    31.4    24005   0.03    0.01      94    
MON 12Z 28-JAN  34.4    32.3    33.8    33.5    23004   0.02    0.01      94    
MON 18Z 28-JAN  43.8    33.2    44.1    33.7    23005   0.00    0.00      55    
TUE 00Z 29-JAN  49.2    38.7    38.2    31.5    15006   0.00    0.00      55    
TUE 06Z 29-JAN  38.8    36.9    38.7    34.3    17006   0.00    0.00      98    
TUE 12Z 29-JAN  40.0    38.7    39.8    36.4    17006   0.00    0.00      98    
TUE 18Z 29-JAN  44.2    32.2    32.6    30.3    28010   0.13    0.04     100    
WED 00Z 30-JAN  32.6    17.8    17.7     6.6    29010   0.22    0.22      99    
WED 06Z 30-JAN  17.8     9.7     9.6    -6.0    28008   0.00    0.00       0  

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CSV    LAT=  35.95 LON=  -85.08 ELE=  1880

                                            12Z JAN24
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
THU 12Z 24-JAN                  26.5    24.0    30009   0.00    0.00     100    
THU 18Z 24-JAN  32.8    24.9    33.1    17.6    30008   0.00    0.00       1    
FRI 00Z 25-JAN  36.7    29.9    29.7    20.0    28006   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 06Z 25-JAN  29.7    27.2    27.2    21.3    30007   0.00    0.00      38    
FRI 12Z 25-JAN  27.2    18.1    17.9     3.0    31008   0.00    0.00       2    
FRI 18Z 25-JAN  29.8    16.1    30.0    -1.4    29004   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 00Z 26-JAN  31.8    24.1    24.0     6.8    27004   0.00    0.00      93    
SAT 06Z 26-JAN  25.1    22.0    24.8     4.7    24006   0.00    0.00      92    
SAT 12Z 26-JAN  26.8    24.7    26.3    11.1    24006   0.00    0.00      13    
SAT 18Z 26-JAN  38.5    24.5    38.7    18.2    26007   0.00    0.00       1    
SUN 00Z 27-JAN  40.3    31.5    31.4    21.3    20006   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 06Z 27-JAN  31.4    29.7    29.8    23.7    21007   0.00    0.00      26    
SUN 12Z 27-JAN  31.1    29.4    30.7    27.8    20006   0.00    0.00      91    
SUN 18Z 27-JAN  45.0    30.7    45.2    34.5    23007   0.01    0.01      94    
MON 00Z 28-JAN  45.3    36.9    36.8    33.7    21006   0.02    0.00      44    
MON 06Z 28-JAN  36.9    33.2    33.1    32.8    22004   0.02    0.00      91    
MON 12Z 28-JAN  35.4    32.6    34.0    33.4    20005   0.00    0.00      23    
MON 18Z 28-JAN  47.5    32.1    47.8    36.9    20008   0.00    0.00      77    
TUE 00Z 29-JAN  50.1    42.9    42.7    34.7    19008   0.00    0.00      77    
TUE 06Z 29-JAN  43.1    40.3    40.4    36.4    20008   0.00    0.00      96    
TUE 12Z 29-JAN  41.3    34.8    33.9    32.4    32009   0.02    0.00     100    
TUE 18Z 29-JAN  33.9    18.1    18.4     8.4    31011   0.19    0.19      99    
WED 00Z 30-JAN  20.9    17.0    16.9     2.0    30009   0.00    0.00       1    
WED 06Z 30-JAN  16.9    12.8    12.9    -5.0    29006   0.00    0.00      63    
WED 12Z 30-JAN  14.5    12.6    13.2     1.7    28007   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 18Z 30-JAN  25.5    12.8    25.7    -9.1    26009   0.00    0.00       6   

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=   285

                                            12Z JAN24
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
THU 12Z 24-JAN                  24.1    20.5    30004   0.00    0.00       0    
THU 18Z 24-JAN  38.9    23.7    39.3    25.4    27005   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 00Z 25-JAN  44.8    36.3    36.6    28.8    28005   0.00    0.00      52    
FRI 06Z 25-JAN  37.8    31.8    31.6    20.8    35008   0.00    0.00       8    
FRI 12Z 25-JAN  31.6    22.5    22.4    11.9    00007   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 18Z 25-JAN  31.2    20.7    31.5    14.7    33002   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 00Z 26-JAN  35.7    29.6    29.5    17.8    23004   0.00    0.00      90    
SAT 06Z 26-JAN  31.3    28.7    31.3    19.2    21005   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 12Z 26-JAN  32.4    28.5    28.4    23.3    20004   0.00    0.00      11    
SAT 18Z 26-JAN  46.9    27.8    47.2    30.5    22006   0.00    0.00       9    
SUN 00Z 27-JAN  49.8    42.7    42.5    33.4    19007   0.00    0.00       1    
SUN 06Z 27-JAN  42.5    40.5    40.7    35.9    21009   0.00    0.00      94    
SUN 12Z 27-JAN  40.7    37.5    37.4    35.3    23003   0.00    0.00     100    
SUN 18Z 27-JAN  50.6    37.1    50.8    38.6    24006   0.00    0.00       2    
MON 00Z 28-JAN  53.2    45.9    45.8    37.8    26004   0.01    0.00      41    
MON 06Z 28-JAN  45.8    35.1    34.9    32.2    01004   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 12Z 28-JAN  34.9    31.5    33.3    30.9    17005   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 18Z 28-JAN  54.3    33.3    54.5    36.0    20011   0.00    0.00      87    
TUE 00Z 29-JAN  56.5    48.0    47.7    39.5    20005   0.00    0.00      95    
TUE 06Z 29-JAN  48.8    36.0    35.2    34.2    34014   0.08    0.01     100    
TUE 12Z 29-JAN  35.2    18.1    18.0     3.5    33014   0.16    0.16      49    
TUE 18Z 29-JAN  24.2    16.1    24.5     6.4    32011   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 00Z 30-JAN  30.3    24.2    24.3    11.0    27005   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 06Z 30-JAN  26.5    23.5    26.1    14.8    25006   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 12Z 30-JAN  26.1    22.0    21.9     9.8    06004   0.00    0.00      85    
WED 18Z 30-JAN  33.8    21.4    34.3    11.8    18002   0.00    0.00      88    
THU 00Z 31-JAN  39.5    32.2    32.2    25.2    18006   0.00    0.00       0  

 

 

[EastKnox]

Noticed the Euro has is a little slower than the GFS.  CrankyWeatherGuy mentioned the Rex block in the pacific potentially causing timing issues with models.  It looks like this piece of energy rides over the top of that split. I'll be curious to see what timing adjustments might happen as this feature erodes.

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

7 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Bring it!

After looking at it maybe it was more like hold my Zima. 

 

 

 

[weathertree4u]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

After looking at it maybe it was more like hold my Zima. 

 

 

 

Ok, so looks like at least advisory level 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

850s look balmy:

 

 

[Mrwolf1972]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

After looking at it maybe it was more like hold my Zima. 

 

 

 

I'll take it tired of all the rain and only flurries all winter so far.

[weathertree4u]

Just now, weathertree4u said:

Ok, so looks like at least advisory level 

Would guess temps tank with snow on ground 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Sure I'm excited, but still a long time to go.  But better than it being stuck at day 7. 

[HSVWx]

47 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

You know, I think the cold likely resulted in part from one of those parent vortices from the strat split earlier this month.  I haven't looked closely.  It may very well be from across the pole in some part as that is likely how Canada reloaded.  The reason it gets really cold is the snowpack to our north and some models even have light amounts over us.  This is a very cold air mass coming

Thank you T for that your insight my friend 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Fun new toy at new website, blend of the GEFS, EPS, and GEPS means at 500 mb:

 

[jaxjagman]

3 minutes ago, HSVWx said:

Thank you T for that your insight my friend 

I put the wrong soundings in for you,put hun not hsv

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: HSV    LAT=  34.65 LON=  -86.77 ELE=   643

                                            12Z JAN24
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
THU 12Z 24-JAN                  28.3    22.1    31008   0.00    0.00      92    
THU 18Z 24-JAN  36.8    27.2    37.1    21.6    31005   0.00    0.00       1    
FRI 00Z 25-JAN  41.4    35.7    35.5    23.8    28005   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 06Z 25-JAN  35.5    30.9    30.9    24.9    30006   0.00    0.00      20    
FRI 12Z 25-JAN  31.1    25.7    25.6    19.9    35006   0.00    0.00       2    
FRI 18Z 25-JAN  34.2    24.3    34.4    12.7    33003   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 00Z 26-JAN  37.3    29.6    29.7    18.3    30002   0.00    0.00       7    
SAT 06Z 26-JAN  30.7    25.8    27.2    17.4    20005   0.00    0.00       4    
SAT 12Z 26-JAN  29.2    26.2    29.1    18.3    25003   0.00    0.00      73    
SAT 18Z 26-JAN  43.6    28.8    43.8    25.2    26004   0.00    0.00      89    
SUN 00Z 27-JAN  45.2    37.1    36.8    29.3    19006   0.00    0.00      14    
SUN 06Z 27-JAN  36.8    33.0    33.0    28.2    20006   0.00    0.00      25    
SUN 12Z 27-JAN  34.0    32.7    34.0    29.2    19006   0.00    0.00      98    
SUN 18Z 27-JAN  49.2    34.0    49.4    35.6    21007   0.00    0.00      98    
MON 00Z 28-JAN  50.4    41.9    41.6    38.2    21005   0.03    0.00      28    
MON 06Z 28-JAN  41.6    35.6    36.9    36.1    20005   0.00    0.00      43    
MON 12Z 28-JAN  39.1    36.4    38.2    37.4    17005   0.00    0.00      52    
MON 18Z 28-JAN  53.5    37.0    53.7    39.2    21007   0.00    0.00      21    
TUE 00Z 29-JAN  55.5    47.1    46.9    37.8    19007   0.00    0.00      69    
TUE 06Z 29-JAN  47.0    43.7    43.8    38.2    20007   0.00    0.00      94    
TUE 12Z 29-JAN  44.7    36.2    35.5    32.4    33011   0.04    0.02     100    
TUE 18Z 29-JAN  35.5    22.7    24.8    11.9    32012   0.24    0.24      59    
WED 00Z 30-JAN  27.2    22.4    22.2     7.5    31007   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 06Z 30-JAN  22.2    14.7    15.3     4.8    24005   0.00    0.00       0    

[Daniel Boone]

33 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

That area is fairly complex as well.  It is possible that the elevations have been smoothed a bit much as well.  Just guessing.  I know in this area, that happens.  We will see 12" of snow on Roan Mountain and 2-3" of snow here...what that really means is no snow in the valley.  I do think models have higher definition than they used to...but I bet the elevations over there are getting smoothed out or they have the map wrong.  Let us know if you find out anything.  Interesting.  It might apply here as well.

I'm seeing into now. As it stands, the Lee County Airport Station west of Jonesville is down and has been since last summer.  So, Temps are being projected by models from topograhical smoothed elevation plots and closest Stations. The plots are basically smoothed more on some than others, as is evident. Also, Downsloping is a little overdone as spillover upslope snow survives into the western Valley sections and then disappear further east. Also, there is a somewhat upslope flow from the ssw that is never modeled of which affects precip totals as well. Snowfall reports come from my data and probably the Pennington gap water plant, of which is a terribly location as it is 1 mile south of town right on the banks of Powell river at a much lower elevation than most of the county. Also, that station has a proven history of the workers there reporting erroneous data. 

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Daniel Boone said:

I'm seeing into now. As it stands, the Lee County Airport Station west of Jonesville is down and has been since last summer.  So, Temps are being projected by models from topograhical smoothed elevation plots and closest Stations. The plots are basically smoothed more on some than others, as is evident. Also, Downsloping is a little overdone as spillover upslope snow survives into the western Valley sections and then disappear further east. Also, there is a somewhat upslope flow from the ssw that is never modeled of which affects precip totals as well. Snowfall reports come from my data and probably the Pennington gap water plant, of which is a terribly location as it is 1 mile south of town right on the banks of Powell river at a much lower elevation than most of the county. Also, that station has a proven history of the workers there reporting erroneous data. 

Billings, MT, has similar issues.  Their airport is up on the Rims(basically at the top of a canyon wall).  I think one of the offices for NWS(or the weather station) is on the Yellowstone River in town.  Their reports can be very different from each other, and not entirely indicative of the weather in town which is in between the two.  Agree...sometimes weather stations sitting right on the river can have less snow and are a bit warmer in this area. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

This isn't exactly what I was talking about @Daniel Boone, but the Euro does try to push the valley warm nose into SE Lee county: 

 

 

[HSVWx]

20 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

I put the wrong soundings in for you,put hun not hsv

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: HSV    LAT=  34.65 LON=  -86.77 ELE=   643

                                            12Z JAN24
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
THU 12Z 24-JAN                  28.3    22.1    31008   0.00    0.00      92    
THU 18Z 24-JAN  36.8    27.2    37.1    21.6    31005   0.00    0.00       1    
FRI 00Z 25-JAN  41.4    35.7    35.5    23.8    28005   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 06Z 25-JAN  35.5    30.9    30.9    24.9    30006   0.00    0.00      20    
FRI 12Z 25-JAN  31.1    25.7    25.6    19.9    35006   0.00    0.00       2    
FRI 18Z 25-JAN  34.2    24.3    34.4    12.7    33003   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 00Z 26-JAN  37.3    29.6    29.7    18.3    30002   0.00    0.00       7    
SAT 06Z 26-JAN  30.7    25.8    27.2    17.4    20005   0.00    0.00       4    
SAT 12Z 26-JAN  29.2    26.2    29.1    18.3    25003   0.00    0.00      73    
SAT 18Z 26-JAN  43.6    28.8    43.8    25.2    26004   0.00    0.00      89    
SUN 00Z 27-JAN  45.2    37.1    36.8    29.3    19006   0.00    0.00      14    
SUN 06Z 27-JAN  36.8    33.0    33.0    28.2    20006   0.00    0.00      25    
SUN 12Z 27-JAN  34.0    32.7    34.0    29.2    19006   0.00    0.00      98    
SUN 18Z 27-JAN  49.2    34.0    49.4    35.6    21007   0.00    0.00      98    
MON 00Z 28-JAN  50.4    41.9    41.6    38.2    21005   0.03    0.00      28    
MON 06Z 28-JAN  41.6    35.6    36.9    36.1    20005   0.00    0.00      43    
MON 12Z 28-JAN  39.1    36.4    38.2    37.4    17005   0.00    0.00      52    
MON 18Z 28-JAN  53.5    37.0    53.7    39.2    21007   0.00    0.00      21    
TUE 00Z 29-JAN  55.5    47.1    46.9    37.8    19007   0.00    0.00      69    
TUE 06Z 29-JAN  47.0    43.7    43.8    38.2    20007   0.00    0.00      94    
TUE 12Z 29-JAN  44.7    36.2    35.5    32.4    33011   0.04    0.02     100    
TUE 18Z 29-JAN  35.5    22.7    24.8    11.9    32012   0.24    0.24      59    
WED 00Z 30-JAN  27.2    22.4    22.2     7.5    31007   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 06Z 30-JAN  22.2    14.7    15.3     4.8    24005   0.00    0.00       0    

Hey thank you JaxJag! Much appreciated!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The GEFS look pretty good for the mid week system:

 

Some misses, but some good hits too:

 

[HSVWx]

27 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

I put the wrong soundings in for you,put hun not hsv

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: HSV    LAT=  34.65 LON=  -86.77 ELE=   643

                                            12Z JAN24
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
THU 12Z 24-JAN                  28.3    22.1    31008   0.00    0.00      92    
THU 18Z 24-JAN  36.8    27.2    37.1    21.6    31005   0.00    0.00       1    
FRI 00Z 25-JAN  41.4    35.7    35.5    23.8    28005   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 06Z 25-JAN  35.5    30.9    30.9    24.9    30006   0.00    0.00      20    
FRI 12Z 25-JAN  31.1    25.7    25.6    19.9    35006   0.00    0.00       2    
FRI 18Z 25-JAN  34.2    24.3    34.4    12.7    33003   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 00Z 26-JAN  37.3    29.6    29.7    18.3    30002   0.00    0.00       7    
SAT 06Z 26-JAN  30.7    25.8    27.2    17.4    20005   0.00    0.00       4    
SAT 12Z 26-JAN  29.2    26.2    29.1    18.3    25003   0.00    0.00      73    
SAT 18Z 26-JAN  43.6    28.8    43.8    25.2    26004   0.00    0.00      89    
SUN 00Z 27-JAN  45.2    37.1    36.8    29.3    19006   0.00    0.00      14    
SUN 06Z 27-JAN  36.8    33.0    33.0    28.2    20006   0.00    0.00      25    
SUN 12Z 27-JAN  34.0    32.7    34.0    29.2    19006   0.00    0.00      98    
SUN 18Z 27-JAN  49.2    34.0    49.4    35.6    21007   0.00    0.00      98    
MON 00Z 28-JAN  50.4    41.9    41.6    38.2    21005   0.03    0.00      28    
MON 06Z 28-JAN  41.6    35.6    36.9    36.1    20005   0.00    0.00      43    
MON 12Z 28-JAN  39.1    36.4    38.2    37.4    17005   0.00    0.00      52    
MON 18Z 28-JAN  53.5    37.0    53.7    39.2    21007   0.00    0.00      21    
TUE 00Z 29-JAN  55.5    47.1    46.9    37.8    19007   0.00    0.00      69    
TUE 06Z 29-JAN  47.0    43.7    43.8    38.2    20007   0.00    0.00      94    
TUE 12Z 29-JAN  44.7    36.2    35.5    32.4    33011   0.04    0.02     100    
TUE 18Z 29-JAN  35.5    22.7    24.8    11.9    32012   0.24    0.24      59    
WED 00Z 30-JAN  27.2    22.4    22.2     7.5    31007   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 06Z 30-JAN  22.2    14.7    15.3     4.8    24005   0.00    0.00       0    

Thank you very much!!!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

EPS still looks cold towards the end of the month. 

 

[John1122]

The UKIE looked good except for a snow hole in NE Tn and up the east side of the Plateau from Chattanooga to Anderson County. Plateau and West get a pretty good event, 3-5 inches all the way from the Plateau to the Mississippi river, down into Northern Alabama/Mississippi. The Eastern areas get 2-4 as well other than the two mentioned snowholes. But those are probably overdone. 

Last night the UKIE snow map looked amazingly like the 12z Euro from today, curious to see how much the Euro reflects that same map again tonight. 

[John1122]

EPS is 2-4 inches for the entire forum region except Chattanooga, where the average is closer to an inch.

[Bango]

Meh looking 18z gfs, maybe east tn squeezed out an inch in 384 hrs.  Rest of the state nothing

[weathertree4u]

8 minutes ago, Bango said:

Meh looking 18z gfs, maybe east tn squeezed out an inch in 384 hrs.  Rest of the state nothing

Looks like a bum run to me honestly, could be wrong.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

GEFS a little more auspicious than the Op:

 

[tnweathernut]

Good to see the ensembles held serve.  FV3 gives Louisiana 2-6” statewide, but whiffs the TN Valley.  I’d run with the Euro and UK at this stage.  They are both pretty good at 5 days, although with the craziness in modeling lately it’s hard to put a ton of faith in any model beyond 48-72 hours.

[John1122]

At this point we are in a 2 days out and closer mode regarding models. They've been pretty awful with these systems from more than a couple days away. This type of set up is also more borderline than most. 

[TellicoWx]

Euro is slowly shifting and clustering the low further south. Cluster has went from Buffalo to Dc in past 24 hrs, something to keep and eye on.

[TellicoWx]

Yesterday at 12z: