January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

[weathertree4u]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I agree in most cases unless there is a big, verified 1040+ Arctic high pressing southward.  In the case of the northwest jog, strong coastal lows are often under-modeled and often strengthen during the last few runs.  In doing so, they many times pull northwest of model trajectories.  Another cause for the northwest jog is modeling overestimating the push of cold into the south.  The boundary will sometimes set up northwest of projections, and the storm rises it.  In either case, was just commenting on how crazy the Euro run was.  Not really a commenting on the track or even if those would verify.  Was just a fun run.  Also, it may very well be that a strong signal is present.  

Well, either way that it goes, we have alot more to track this year than last!

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Well, either way that it goes, we have alot more to track this year than last!

Thankfully, that appears to be the case!  We can probably thank a very active southern branch for that.  Last winter, the La Nina dry spell kicked-in, and we couldn't by a drop or a flake at times.  We were also in a pattern where we would have long warm-ups coupled with moisture and long cold spells coupled with dry weather.    I think we are in a decent precip pattern for the foreseeable future regardless of temps.  

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro Weeklies are interesting.  They are derived from the warmer of the two Euro runs today, 0z.  The EPS at 12z was a favorable break(speaking as someone who likes winter wx in the East) from the past several runs.   2m temps remained cold for every, single week on average.   The 500 pattern is another story.  It does indeed have the 500 pattern where heights build to the south and BN heights retreat to the north, but its 2m temps are still BN here.  The trough then builds underneath.  Believe me when I say there is plenty to talk about with this run...Hopefully, @nrgjeff will pipe in.  Looks like the pattern reloads in mid-February vs breaking.  It does not back down on its -NAO(see isotherm's referenced post above).  Precip is normal to slightly AN.  I will refrain from adding more(unless there are questions) so that Jeff has time to comment if he wishes.  I am interested in his take or @Mr Bob's as well...

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z EPS raises some questions about the Weeklies run overnight regarding AN heights(consistently shown on the EPS for several run, excluding 12z yesterday) in the East.  The operational itself looks very good.  Looks like the Pacific pattern breaks down.  Probably going to have to depend on a -NAO to save us which doesn't always work even when it does appear, especially without a western ridge.  Need the couplet.  So, we will see.   I am not in any camp right now regarding the LR...I hope a cold February will verify.  If I get time, I will write-up some Feb ideas during the next week.  Fairly ho-hum 0z suite of operational models as well.  We will see if 12z is the same.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I know the Euro weekly snowfall products haven't been the most reliable (maybe an understatement), but yesterday's run seemed to me to be by far the best statewide this winter. Does it guarantee an epic finish to winter or piles of snow at the Wal-Mart so high, me-maw will think the end times are nigh?       No. 

But I think it suggests that there are more things that could go right in the next 6 weeks than we've seen so far. 

I counted 34/50 that show a way all or part of the state could get a nice storm or storms. And at this point, I think we could all get behind that. 

[PowellVolz]

What a quagmire


.

[Carvers Gap]

The -NAO has been forecast to go negative for several weeks and is "reluctant"(personification I know...) to do so.  And then I remember...the QBO has turned positive.  I have no idea if it is causal or if it is a symptom of something greater that hinders -NAOs, and it flipped during late fall.  It is currently positive and likey heading more positive.   That is something that I will continue to tuck away as a note regarding that index.  I think ultimately, the anomalous(active) MJO is the likely culprit.  After reading some of the other subform material, I even wonder if we are in true El Nino territory.  The precip pattern certainly fits the Nino pattern as does the lack of sun(happy to see it today!) for the past few months.  However, the SOI does not fit El Nino climatology.  So, I think there are things working against El Nino climatology.  In some ways, this winter has some La Nada characteristics.  If I had to name three ENSO states that deliver iffy chances at winter to downright hostile chances, they would be in this order(worst named first):  Strong La Nina, strong El Nino, and La Nada.  We need the ENSO state to be weak to slightly moderate in either direction IMHO.  I am not sure that we have that right now.  I am also reminded that weak El Nino winters(this winter has some aforementioned characteristics) require such patience.  I have seen some El Nino winters with absolutely nothing in terms of winter right up until February, sometimes even mid-February. There have been El Nino years where I was gearing up for spring when winter finally arrived.   I am also reminded that when we are having to talk about the SOI, MJO, Weeklies(during the middle of our best climatology), and QBO...we are likely swimming upstream.  Do I still think we see some snow?  Yep.  Do I still think temps will be base cold?  Less sure, but yep.  Are we going to have to wait?  Yep.   But with the cold lurking in Canada and an active southern, jet...one has to think that those get in sync at some point.  But if we don't get a -NAO w a Pacific that is less than favorable...going to be tough sledding until that -NAO finally gets its act together.  In about four weeks, the clock starts ticking very quickly towards spring in valley locations.

[nrgjeff]

Yes the Pacific is not lined up classic El Nino. For one thing the maritime continent (Indonesia) has a ton of convection; and, that's a warm signal. However another huge mass of convection is out in the central tropical Pacific. It is more El Nino. Gap is noted on the Dateline, which would be our coldest phase of the MJO. Following up from Carvers above; MJO has traits of strong Nina and strong Nino (east). For snow we really need some more subtle convection and over the Dateline instead.

SSW might have been the only thing that saved us from another warm debacle. Possible that when Alaska relaxes somewhat, the -NAO could take over. Could be a real struggle to reel it in though. Again like Carvers said, this -NAO keeps being pushed back. Could very well be fighting the rising QBO. Kind of like fighting poor NFL officiating, Oops, I'm off-topic. 

I think next week the full latitude trough dumps serious cold into the South, including us. Everybody is tired of false hope, but next week is a good broad weather pattern. Just need to gin up a system on the southern stream. ECMWF sees something, but of course can't decide what to do with it. GFS is cold chasing rain, boo.

Following week should stay cold going into early Feb. Then I'm buying the warm interlude second week of Feb. Could come in faster. The transition is another chance at winter precip. Just pattern recognition; I'm not looking at any particular forecast. Once in a while the WAA translates into snow if the whole column can stay below freezing.

Weeklies both have more cold the second half of Feb. However climo starts getting warmer in a hurry. I think we have plenty to hope for between now and about 5-8 Feb.

[Carvers Gap]

As I look at the pattern over the next couple of weeks...many of the big runs are forming a slp on a frontal boundary that sags into the GOM.  I was reminded by another wx hobby person that fronts that stall in the GOM can form waves along those fronts that are difficult to model.  There are a 2-3 of those fronts off the top of my head between now and the end of next week that have potential.  If any of those front leave a piece of energy behind in the GOM or the southwest...then we are in business.  And let us not forget that sometimes models that have decent storms will lose them...only to have them come back.  I am strongly of the opinion that the parade of storms is not going to let up.  Now, can we get cold and storms in sync?  Not sure.  But beware of tranquil weather patterns.  Not sure we have had one since early November or October.

[jaxjagman]

Yeah,count me in

 

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z JAN22
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
TUE 12Z 22-JAN                  32.1    12.6    16010   0.00    0.00       5    
TUE 18Z 22-JAN  47.9    31.4    48.2    16.3    17012   0.00    0.00      10    
WED 00Z 23-JAN  50.7    43.5    44.1    34.4    16011   0.00    0.00      99    
WED 06Z 23-JAN  44.6    43.3    44.6    40.6    16013   0.01    0.00      91    
WED 12Z 23-JAN  49.2    44.5    49.2    45.9    17016   0.01    0.00      85    
WED 18Z 23-JAN  55.6    49.2    54.7    53.4    19011   0.13    0.00     100    
THU 00Z 24-JAN  55.2    40.8    40.5    40.3    33007   0.85    0.00     100    
THU 06Z 24-JAN  40.5    29.1    29.0    25.5    32008   0.17    0.03      84    
THU 12Z 24-JAN  29.0    22.8    22.7    18.5    30005   0.00    0.00      21    
THU 18Z 24-JAN  37.0    21.9    37.4    21.3    27004   0.00    0.00      22    
FRI 00Z 25-JAN  41.9    34.8    34.6    23.9    27006   0.00    0.00      10    
FRI 06Z 25-JAN  34.6    27.3    27.1    17.4    33008   0.00    0.00      56    
FRI 12Z 25-JAN  27.1    16.5    16.3     3.1    34005   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 18Z 25-JAN  26.8    15.5    27.1     0.4    32003   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 00Z 26-JAN  30.8    24.4    24.8     8.8    18004   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 06Z 26-JAN  28.3    23.4    28.4     8.5    21005   0.00    0.00      94    
SAT 12Z 26-JAN  29.6    26.8    26.8    11.1    23006   0.00    0.00      95    
SAT 18Z 26-JAN  39.6    26.6    39.8    21.1    29005   0.00    0.00      92    
SUN 00Z 27-JAN  41.3    32.6    32.6    23.6    33004   0.00    0.00      93    
SUN 06Z 27-JAN  33.1    27.2    27.9    22.0    17003   0.00    0.00      63    
SUN 12Z 27-JAN  31.0    27.8    30.0    24.4    19004   0.00    0.00      83    
SUN 18Z 27-JAN  48.9    29.4    49.2    33.8    22009   0.00    0.00      21    
MON 00Z 28-JAN  51.4    42.0    41.8    33.4    22006   0.00    0.00      16    
MON 06Z 28-JAN  41.8    38.5    38.5    33.8    19006   0.00    0.00      48    
MON 12Z 28-JAN  38.8    35.5    35.4    33.8    19007   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 18Z 28-JAN  54.6    35.4    54.9    39.6    21011   0.00    0.00      77    
TUE 00Z 29-JAN  57.5    48.9    48.7    38.1    19007   0.00    0.00      81    
TUE 06Z 29-JAN  48.8    38.0    37.4    36.5    34010   0.08    0.00     100    
TUE 12Z 29-JAN  37.4    20.9    20.7    14.4    34009   0.21    0.20     100    
TUE 18Z 29-JAN  20.7    16.5    17.3     6.5    32009   0.16    0.16      99    
WED 00Z 30-JAN  20.1    15.9    15.7     3.6    31008   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 06Z 30-JAN  15.7     8.1     7.9    -5.3    31005   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 12Z 30-JAN   9.2    -1.7     4.1   -10.6    24005   0.00    0.00      73    
WED 18Z 30-JAN  26.3     2.3    26.8     3.6    20007   0.00    0.00      69    
THU 00Z 31-JAN  35.3    26.8    33.1    16.3    21011   0.00    0.00       0    
THU 06Z 31-JAN  33.1    32.5    32.6    21.2    21011   0.00    0.00      94    
THU 12Z 31-JAN  32.9    30.7    30.6    23.5    21007   0.00    0.00      98    
THU 18Z 31-JAN  37.9    30.0    37.9    30.8    23006   0.00    0.00     100    
FRI 00Z 01-FEB  38.9    30.2    29.9    27.2    01007   0.07    0.03     100    
FRI 06Z 01-FEB  29.8    19.3    19.1    15.8    36009   0.40    0.40     100    
FRI 12Z 01-FEB  19.1    11.8    11.6     6.5    36009   0.15    0.15      52  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Full Euro run for your viewing pleasure. What will it show in 12 hours though? 

 

To be fair, I do like the arctic front idea since it has been around pretty consistently, and have to think that if it verified, like all other systems it would end up with more moisture. 

[weathertree4u]

10 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Full Euro run for your viewing pleasure. What will it show in 12 hours though? 

 

To be fair, I do like the arctic front idea since it has been around pretty consistently, and have to think that if it verified, like all other systems it would end up with more moisture. 

That looks nice. When is that bigger storm?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, weathertree4u said:

When is that bigger storm?

In the ever illusive 8-10 day window.

[weathertree4u]

34 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

In the ever illusive 8-10 day window.

What are temps associated with that snowpack?

[Wurbus]

55 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

What are temps associated with that snowpack?

It's at the end of the run and still cloudy and/or snowing a little.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Isotherm with another update....I like the last sentence of this paragraph:

The low amplitude phase 7 MJO z500 composite for February yields a hemispheric structure not too dissimilar from the EPS and GEFS, with fairly robust -AO and -NAO blocking, and an Aleutian low signal. The latter is what we'll see improve as we move forward in my opinion; namely, the predilection for improvements in the PNA domain. The low height signal currently progged in British Columbia should retrograde quickly to the Aleutians, operating under the assumption the tropical forcing behaves as anticipated, which it should.

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

@weathertree4u

Upstream vodka cold returning. Windchill map for full effect: 

 

0z awaits:

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

GFS looks better for next Tuesday.Euro has all snow here qpf's .36".GFS has mixing issue IP/SN,but still a decent thump for most of us.Still eternity away.

[Carvers Gap]

Some very nice trends on the 6z GEFS and 0z GEPS for days 10-15.  Let's see if those looks can make it through another suite.  Also, the 0z EPS is similar.  I think it was isotherm that said that the trough over BC would retrograde into the Aleutians and pop another western ridge.  Looking like a pretty good call at this time.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

EPS is back to the AK ridging, Aleutian troughing.

ninja'd by Carvers

 

[Carvers Gap]

I think our next hope right now rests in this Arctic front on roughly Tuesday or in the decreasing outside chance that something amplifies.  I still would not be surprised to see a somewhat stormy pattern be "rediscovered" on the models.  Not likely, but I wouldn't be shocked either.  With the -NAO delayed and the Pacific temporarily(we hope) breaking down, the trough will likely exit, and then a new trough will form later over the East(see my post above for reasoning).  We really have to hope that the retrograding trough motors into the Aleutians.  If it does, I think our next and last window is Feb14ish through the end of the month.  If that trough delays, it will be very difficult to have a sustained winter pattern of any sort. I am working on a February forecast right now.  I do agree with the warmup/moderation that Jeff mentioned(think that was the second week?).  The Weeklies(weekly temp averages) don't have that, but they certainly hinted that it might be.  That is a tough week to lose, because things really begin to work against us by the end of the month.  I only have a lean right now vs actually making a forecast.  Like for the January ideas, I probably won't put anything out until next week...Interestingly, the pattern is still fairly rainy and cloudy.  I think precip is a constant.  Right now, the cold and precip are not in sync with the exclusion of next Tuesday.  IMHO, the backloaded winter idea rests squarely on a -NAO forming.  If it does not form or is even delayed any further than it already has been, going to be tough to slow systems down enough from a timing standpoint and confluence will not be stable.  I am surprised that on Jan 23rd, that we have so little to track.  That is not a good sign.  Hopefully, that changes soon.

[nrgjeff]

February fork in the road. Looks cold rest of Jan. Mild for a few days maybe 5-10 Feb. What next? Start spring like 2018 or reload like 2015. Most of us probably hope the latter. Indonesia convection is a disturbing warm signal.  However central Pac convection is retrograding toward that Dateline sweet spot for cold here. 

Finally, and I'm not sure what to make of it, a cold front reached the Philippines. Not unheard of. We can get some through the Caribbean this side of the marble. My question/hope is if the Asia cold overwhelms that Indonesia warm signal. Jet stream could block connection. Or the risk is that the convection actually enhances the whole pineapple express. Models are apparently struggling just as we humans are. Time will tell. I'm really split 50/50.

Housekeeping note: Might want to rename this thread or start Feb. If all goes well with an active Feb. maybe new thread. Cheers!

[tnweathernut]

42 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

February fork in the road. Looks cold rest of Jan. Mild for a few days maybe 5-10 Feb. What next? Start spring like 2018 or reload like 2015. Most of us probably hope the latter. Indonesia convection is a disturbing warm signal.  However central Pac convection is retrograding toward that Dateline sweet spot for cold here. 

Finally, and I'm not sure what to make of it, a cold front reached the Philippines. Not unheard of. We can get some through the Caribbean this side of the marble. My question/hope is if the Asia cold overwhelms that Indonesia warm signal. Jet stream could block connection. Or the risk is that the convection actually enhances the whole pineapple express. Models are apparently struggling just as we humans are. Time will tell. I'm really split 50/50.

Housekeeping note: Might want to rename this thread or start Feb. If all goes well with an active Feb. maybe new thread. Cheers!

Good post by you and Carver's.  We don't usually do well with tossup situations, but at least we have a chance regarding the pattern evolution.   I am probably in the minority, but I feel good about the direction we are heading.  You have to think something will pop in the 5-10 range with the cold around.  If it does, and we realize a widespread winter system we will probably all feel better about whatever happens in February and what many in here hope will be a short duration relax in the cold.

Regarding the bolded, I think renaming to add February would be a great idea.  Maybe the mojo of a new thread title would help? haha

[AMZ8990]

Just now, tnweathernut said:

Good post by you and Carver's.  We don't usually do well with tossup situations, but at least we have a chance regarding the pattern evolution.   I am probably in the minority, but I feel good about the direction we are heading.  You have to think something will pop in the 5-10 range with the cold around.  If it does, and we realize a widespread winter system we will probably all feel better about whatever happens in February and what many in here hope will be a short duration relax in the cold.

Regarding the bolded, I think renaming to add February would be a great idea.  Maybe the mojo of a new thread title would help? haha

Went ahead and started a February winter thread, hopefully it brings good snow mojo to us all! Lol

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z ICON does not look half bad.  I mean it is not over the top...but a couple of chances early next week.

[Carvers Gap]

The MSLP and 500 maps are pretty interesting if you can toggle between them. There are huge highs coming south repetitively on the GFS.  Very cold run.  If you looked only at the 500, you would think it was warm under it.  Nope.  Be sure to look at the MSLP maps...some 1044 highs in MN around d10 w subzero stuff in Kentucky and single digits across the north forum area.

[Carvers Gap]

I have been watching the d10-15, because I would really like to see some extended winter.  That said, what the models are spitting out inside of d10 is crazy.  The first is the 12z GFS actual surface temp map(not departures).  The second is the 0z Euro departure maps.   There are -61 departures over the Plains on the Euro op.  We saw this(temp extremes on models) a few days ago.  It would take only one coastal of any variety to send that stuff south.  One would think a storm might right that boundary at some point.  

 

[Blue Ridge]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I have been watching the d10-15, because I would really like to see some extended winter.  That said, what the models are spitting out inside of d10 is crazy.  The first is the 12z GFS actual surface temp map(not departures).  The second is the 0z Euro departure maps.   There are -61 departures over the Plains on the Euro op.  We saw this a few days ago.  It would take only one coastal of any variety to send that stuff south.

 

Just for kicks and giggles...

Average low in Fort Dodge, IA (approx. dead center of the -48 anomaly area on the Euro) is 8.2. -61 departure equates to -52.8. 

[Icy Hot]

13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I have been watching the d10-15, because I would really like to see some extended winter.  That said, what the models are spitting out inside of d10 is crazy.  The first is the 12z GFS actual surface temp map(not departures).  The second is the 0z Euro departure maps.   There are -61 departures over the Plains on the Euro op.  We saw this(temp extremes on models) a few days ago.  It would take only one coastal of any variety to send that stuff south.  One would think a storm might right that boundary at some point.  

I try to remain optimistic but as Mack says, "these are always 7-10 days away."

 

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, Icy Hot said:

I try to remain optimistic but as Mack says, "these are always 7-10 days away."

That cold snap is in the d7-8 range.  We will see if it moves up.  I suspect it will.  Not being optimistic or pessimistic with that post...just sharing some cold maps.