January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

[jaxjagman]

[weathertree4u]

21 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Definite ice threat on the Euro long range,probably take it with a grain of salt at this range tho

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z JAN20
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
SUN 12Z 20-JAN  -3.4   -10.3     126       0    34010           0.00            
SUN 18Z 20-JAN  -2.3    -9.7     126       0    34009           0.00            
MON 00Z 21-JAN  -3.7   -10.9     126       0    34007           0.00            
MON 06Z 21-JAN  -5.6   -11.5     125       0    04006           0.01            
MON 12Z 21-JAN  -7.6    -8.2     125       0    05005           0.00            
MON 18Z 21-JAN  -1.3    -4.6     127       0    07005           0.00            
TUE 00Z 22-JAN  -1.9    -0.5     129    1953    08005           0.00            
TUE 06Z 22-JAN  -3.0     3.3     130    7349    14006           0.00            
TUE 12Z 22-JAN  -0.7     2.7     130    8513    17009           0.00            
TUE 18Z 22-JAN   7.2     2.0     131   10458    17012           0.00            
WED 00Z 23-JAN   7.7     4.9     133   10593    16013           0.00            
WED 06Z 23-JAN   8.9     6.7     134    9252    17015           0.00            
WED 12Z 23-JAN  10.0     7.8     134    9162    18016           0.12            
WED 18Z 23-JAN   8.4     5.0     134    8325    31007           0.47            
THU 00Z 24-JAN   1.9     2.2     131    7679    33007           0.65            
THU 06Z 24-JAN  -2.1    -4.3     127       0    32007           0.15            
THU 12Z 24-JAN  -4.7    -6.2     126       0    30006           0.00            
THU 18Z 24-JAN   1.2    -6.3     128      91    28006           0.00            
FRI 00Z 25-JAN   0.4    -7.4     129    1197    27006           0.00            
FRI 06Z 25-JAN  -2.3    -9.9     126       0    31010           0.00            
FRI 12Z 25-JAN -10.3   -11.6     124       0    32007           0.00            
FRI 18Z 25-JAN  -3.3    -6.3     126       0    24001           0.00            
SAT 00Z 26-JAN  -3.1    -3.0     128       0    17006           0.00            
SAT 06Z 26-JAN  -1.5    -1.7     129       0    20006           0.00            
SAT 12Z 26-JAN  -0.6    -4.8     129       0    20007           0.00            
SAT 18Z 26-JAN   1.7    -5.1     129     512    22003           0.03            
SUN 00Z 27-JAN  -0.1    -6.5     128     132    36003           0.14            
SUN 06Z 27-JAN  -4.5    -7.7     127       0    34007           0.07            
SUN 12Z 27-JAN  -9.3    -7.3     126       0    35006           0.03            
SUN 18Z 27-JAN  -2.3    -6.8     127       0    35007           0.00            
MON 00Z 28-JAN  -5.0    -6.7     127       0    34005           0.00            
MON 06Z 28-JAN  -7.3    -4.2     128       0    33004           0.00            
MON 12Z 28-JAN  -8.5    -4.2     128       0    19003           0.00            
MON 18Z 28-JAN   3.0    -0.7     130    1700    19004           0.00            
TUE 00Z 29-JAN   1.9     4.2     132    7089    17007           0.00            
TUE 06Z 29-JAN   2.4     6.0     133    6839    19008           0.00            
TUE 12Z 29-JAN   3.3     4.3     133    6028    19007           0.01            
TUE 18Z 29-JAN   7.4     4.5     133    6332    20007           0.08            
WED 00Z 30-JAN   4.7     4.1     133    6906    32004           0.18            
WED 06Z 30-JAN  -2.5     1.7     129    7491    34007           0.36            
WED 12Z 30-JAN  -6.9    -0.1     127    4986    35009           0.28            

 

Numbers do not look good but I am almost 100% sure that, like the real, real cold, it is an apparition and will change in the next run!

[John1122]

GFS and NAM are similar again midweek. Both pop a low that rides up the front east of the Apps, the NAM just doesn't really produce much precipitation with it back into our area, still it's mostly happening beyond hour 60 on the NAM, so the end of it's range. The GFS isn't as juicy as it was at 18z but still has the event unfolding with ice in central/western  areas and 1-3 inches of snow around the Plateau and west.

[Bango]

0z Cmc a return to the freakish cold and snow pattern through 240.  

[jaxjagman]

Euro shows an omega into the GOA and even the BS long range,REALLY could be a decent pattern,but you really would like the PNA to cooperate some

 

[TellicoWx]

0z EPS and GEFS means:

[TellicoWx]

The only downside in the EPS and GEFS is they seem to be keeping everything in the 7-15 day timeframe, need to start seeing those move forward in time. Both means really don't have much if anything until day 7/8 on these runs.

[weathertree4u]

6 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

The only downside in the EPS and GEFS is they seem to be keeping everything in the 7-15 day timeframe, need to start seeing those move forward in time. Both means really don't have much if anything until day 7/8 on these runs.

My thoughts exactly!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Still a fairly high spread on the Euro for the midweek system, at a relatively short lead time:

Weekend system looks decent on the EPS for 7 days. I especially like that many of the individual members develop the low further north in the Gulf 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

For you AL and MS folks,

wouldn't put too much stock in it this far out, but amazing to see nonetheless and within 7 days for y'all. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Convection still looks like it is trying to progress through the eastern hemisphere.

 

For people who are wondering what this map is, basically greens = convection; orangeish reds? = less convection

ECMWF must look fairly similar based on its projected path in RMM its plots. Hopefully we get it into the W. Hemisphere as soon as possible. I would expect the SOI to look rough until it gets east of the dateline. Giant blobs of convection and tropical cyclones can't be good for the MSLP in Darwin. 

I wonder what it is about the Maritime Continent area that is making the convection favor that area this year? Differences in sea surface temps (SSTs) usually help the convection, so that is why we normally like Ninos. The typical tropical convection configuration created by typical Nino surface temps in the Pac, favors the split flow, PNA ridging, etc...   

Apparently Typhoon Tip in the NE forum posted that even though we have what looks like Nino, overall sea surface temps are so warm in the Pac, it's a wash. If that's the case, Lord help us if we get a big La Nina since you'd think that would just exacerbate the Nina effects. maybe that's what happened last year with the mega amped MJO phases last Feb. I know many people on here already know this, but for maybe lurkers and people who are like: "Why the bleepity, bleep does convection in the Pacific matter?", here are 2 illustrations showing how SSTs impact convection (Image 1, La Nina SSTs and associated convection; image 2, El Nino SSTs and associated convection) :

 

These "Walker Cell" circulations impact "Hadley cells" and, as I understand it, these Hadley cells help determine the jet structure in the Pacific, two images that show how these Hadley cells impact winds in the atmosphere (image one shows local impacts with MJO convection, image 2 shows the global connection) :

 

Now, what would be nice is if someone in the area gets a nice snow storm this weekend, despite all this. As John pointed out a few pages back, other factors can overcome the above problems. 

Like Bob Ross, the Euro believes. 

 

 

[tnweathernut]

Thanks Holston.  Shows a lot of potential on the OP's this morning for the next 10 days or so. 

Ensembles aside (not like they have been nailing the LR anyway)......... who knows where we go after that, but the FV3 shows how we could stay in a good pattern well into February.  Instead of retrograding the ridging that develops over the Aleutians and popping a mid America ridge, it gets shoved into the AO domain, connects over the top with ridging in the NAO region and keeps the PV south of it in Canada. 

Meanwhile, renewed troughing in the Aleutians pops another west coast ridge that eventually surges into the EPO region with energy underneath in the southern jet and impulses also in the northern stream diving into NA. 

It's probably as "weenie" as anything has looked in the long range in several days, even though it likely has little skill beyond day 5.    

 

[Carvers Gap]

To add to tnweathenut's thoughts...the 0z EPS has broken a bit(from the last few runs) from the AN heights that they showed developing underneath retreating and retrograding cold late in its run.  It begins to place the trough back in the East.  Looking forward to the 12z run and to the Weeklies' progression with that new and recently persistent feature(ridging over the SE) present during days 12-15.  Also noted, temps during that time frame have only shown moderation vs a flip at the surface.  The 500 pattern is question mark for now.

[Carvers Gap]

Just kicking around the various subforms and models...I am slightly more than mildly interested for the Sunday-Wednesday time frame next week.  Plenty of variations on the modeling, and many have a wintery outcome over some portion of the forum area.

[Carvers Gap]

So, long range modeling aside, beginning next Sunday through the end of that week...that looks like a really good window.  I don't think that is modeling kicking things down the road.  That time frame has looked fairly good for some time.  The slight moderation in temps for tomorrow and Weds has been a consistent feature w what follows being progressively more interesting. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

CIPS analogue for the GEFS at 168 hours. Mean COOP snowfall for similar 500mb patterns. Average of top 5 analogues from each GEFS member:

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Pretty amazing to watch the differing solutions for Sunday to Weds on the 12z suite so far.  They are handling each sw differently.  Not unexpected at this range, but I will have to lean on low placements on the ensembles in order to get a general idea of possibilities. 

[Carvers Gap]

But if forced to choose out of selfish reasons, the 12z CMC will suffice.  LOL.  2 storms.

[Carvers Gap]

One final note before the Euro rolls, I do think with potential for a big coastal(referencing comments on multiple subforums and JB) event early next week...the LR after that will be in flux until that potential storm rolls through.

[AMZ8990]

The Nam has joined the FV3 in showing wintry precip on Wednesday night in west tn.  I’m a little intrigued now!!

[Carvers Gap]

Isotherm has updated his winter forecast, and does a thorough job addressing how the NAO will finally go negative(and why it has not been consistent until now).

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

But if forced to choose out of selfish reasons, the 12z CMC will suffice.  LOL.  2 storms.

Canadian solution was pretty incredible! Back to 2 pieces of the TPV swinging down and causing storms. 

[Carvers Gap]

Wild, wild run of the 12z Euro.  Snow into New Orleans and the Panhandle w the second storm.  Both storms take a NNE trajectory.  Models seem to be understandably having trouble knowing which piece of energy to accentuate.  Loaded pattern.  The Euro had most of the energy east of us.  That said, that run depended on how the first storm set the Arctic boundary.  The second storm ran it.  All kinds of funs stuff to work into that conversation including spacing.  Plenty of meat left on that bone.  LOL.

[BullCityWx]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Wild, wild run of the 12z Euro.  Snow into New Orleans and the Panhandle w the second storm.  Both storms take a NNE trajectory.  Models seem to be understandably having trouble knowing which piece of energy to accentuate.  Loaded pattern.  The Euro had most of the energy east of us.  That said, that run depended on how the first storm set the Arctic boundary.  The second storm ran it.  All kinds of funs stuff to work into that conversation including spacing.  Plenty of meat left on that bone.  LOL.

Seriously, 5" into PCB with it almost being the biggest snowstorm in New Orleans history and thats just the start. As depicted, thats january 2000 levels of snow in eastern NC. 

I am pulling for all of us to get in the action though. 

[tnweathernut]

3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Seriously, 5" into PCB with it almost being the biggest snowstorm in New Orleans history and thats just the start. As depicted, thats january 2000 levels of snow in eastern NC. 

I am pulling for all of us to get in the action though. 

You could tell at 500 that trailing piece of energy was going to produce.  Such a unique setup to send snow that far south.  I'm not ready to write that first storm (offshore) off until we see how the midweek system plays out.  As for the trailing piece and the lead piece of energy, plenty of time to watch.  As Carver's hinted, that time period is pretty loaded. 

Also of note, 500 doesn't look half bad at day 10 on the Euro or any OP for that matter.  Perhaps we start working out of some of the less than desirable looks in the LR before they ever have a chance to advance our way over the coming 3-4 weeks?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

And there we go, what we've been looking for:

 

Lower heights sliding to the Aleutians and a ridge building in the gulf of Alaska. 

[tnweathernut]

Yep, that's what I was looking for too.  It could easily go the other direction, but the OP's have been giving hints that we remain mostly favorable for opportunity the next couple of weeks.  The look across the OP spectrum and ensemble spectrum at day 10 is a VERY good one at 12z.

[ShawnEastTN]

Wild, wild run of the 12z Euro.  Snow into New Orleans and the Panhandle w the second storm.  Both storms take a NNE trajectory.  Models seem to be understandably having trouble knowing which piece of energy to accentuate.  Loaded pattern.  The Euro had most of the energy east of us.  That said, that run depended on how the first storm set the Arctic boundary.  The second storm ran it.  All kinds of funs stuff to work into that conversation including spacing.  Plenty of meat left on that bone.  LOL.

Technically I prefer at this stage the precip show south and east of us. How many times over the years models show a massive accumulation over the forum area only for it to shift North and West plastering Kentucky for example in the final few days and blanking us.

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[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro Weeklies, 500 mb 5 days averages, 850 temp 5 days averages: 

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Technically I prefer at this stage the precip show south and east of us. How many times over the years models show a massive accumulation over the forum area only for it to shift North and West plastering Kentucky for example in the final few days and blanking us.

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I agree in most cases unless there is a big, verified 1040+ Arctic high pressing southward.  In the case of the northwest jog, strong coastal lows are often under-modeled and often strengthen during the last few runs.  In doing so, they many times pull northwest of model trajectories.  Another cause for the northwest jog is modeling overestimating the push of cold into the south.  The boundary will sometimes set up northwest of projections, and the storm rises it.  In either case, was just commenting on how crazy the Euro run was.  Not really a commenting on the track or even if those would verify.  Was just a fun run.  Also, it may very well be that a strong signal is present.