Daniel Boone Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Mid section has had a great Winter and looks to continue, even if we do get in on it. On 1/16/2019 at 8:33 AM, nrgjeff said: ECWMF does seem to want to dig the weekend system a little longer, which would put West Tenn and of course Kentucky in play for snow. Couple storms this year the ECWMF beat the NAM in short range (30-36 hr) in the Midwest. Will it translate South? MJO wants influence later next week, but I tend to believe the strong blocking signals will outweigh. Looks like a mild interlude between arctic systems is likely. It might be 1-2 days. A West first arctic dump might give us 3-4 mild days. Still from the upper latitudes pattern I infer it comes east. Pretty safe call really. Still looks like a true arctic outbreak Jan 26-30. Very end of the EPS has it easing up slightly, but one expects some ebb and flow. I expect more cold in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 It some how manages to snow fairly heavily all around the South except for the Southern Eastern Valley/NE Georgia area. At the 240 mark another southern system is effecting the whole forum with snow and it's pointed at those areas. It seems like here in Chattanooga we miss out on snow a lot when the board gets snow. I realize this is just a model but it seems pretty accurate for past storms. On a side note, when the forecast busts in our favor we end up overproducing by a big amount. Hopefully if this storm develops we can all get a nice dumping. Sent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 The NAM is not onboard with the midweek system. I’m afraid the FV3 is on a lonely island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Nice little system coming through on the 12z GFS on the 28th-29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 5 hours ago, TellicoWx said: 00z GEFS mean was about as nice as you could ask for in the south: That is awesome. Need something to actually develop and start laying it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: All the 6z GEFS members: E15 cracks me up. We throw around the words historic a lot. That would definitely go down in the record books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Will any of you all be looking to the skies tonight? A lunar eclipse with the coolest name ever is occurring! The Super Blood Wolf Moon is going to happen tonight from roughly 10 PM to 2 AM peaking just after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 2 hours ago, 1234snow said: The NAM is not onboard with the midweek system. I’m afraid the FV3 is on a lonely island. I don't know, we still have the Euro and the NAM looks kinda similar at 500mb with the energy. Euro: NAM The Euro gives some in the forum a chance: The way things have been trending, would not be surprised at all though if the trailing wave really amps up and gets w. TN and KY more than eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 At this time it looks like the next two weeks have the potential to be very active in terms of storms tracking through the Tennessee valley. Eventually cold air is going to be in place for someone across the forum (maybe all) as these storms track through our area. I believe Carver said it earlier but I will echo it. Someone is likely going to see some of the White stuff we all dream about during these last weeks of January. Last year we had storms that came within 3-4 days of one another when we had our artic blast. It would be pretty cool if that same scenario happens this year, and it looks likely given how the models seem to be an agreement about multiple pieces of energy passing through our are over the next 10 days. Fingers crossed that we can get a statewide event out of them. Overall though, it will be exciting to possibly have systems to actually track in the short term instead of having to look out past 10 days. Everyone get your lucky mojo out so we can reel in a big dawg snow soon!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 The all important Euro Kuchera snow maps for KY and middle/ west TN: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: I don't know, we still have the Euro and the NAM looks kinda similar at 500mb with the energy. Euro: NAM The Euro gives some in the forum a chance: The way things have been trending, would not be surprised at all though if the trailing wave really amps up and gets w. TN and KY more than eastern areas. Seems like the euro is a little faster bringing the precip in versus the FV3 being slower and having the precip arriving at a more favorable time for snow (overnight timeframe). I wouldn’t worry much about the Nam at 84hrs but that’s just me. I hope the FV3 is right though, lol. Either way I agree though that it will be an interesting system to watch pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, AMZ8990 said: I wouldn’t worry much about the Nam at 84hrs but that’s just me Fair enough, but if the Euro an NAM are in agreement... Given how this is likely to trend last minute, you may be sitting pretty @AMZ8990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Fair enough, but if the Euro an NAM are in agreement... Given how this is likely to trend last minute, you may be sitting pretty @AMZ8990 I hope so man!!! They sure have a similar look on those maps you posted so maybe there on to something. That would be an awesome midweek surprise. I just wonder how long it’s gonna take for that cold air to filter in is my biggest question. It seems like the highs on Wednesday have continually been dropped down each run so maybe that’s a good sign. A few days back it was looking like 58-60 for a high and Now the high is modeled at 51 I believe. How soon can that cold front take hold is gonna be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Well, you got nothing between you and the arctic except the Plains (unlike we eastern valley folk who have the plateau), so hopefully it comes screaming in! Meanwhile Euro looks fun at 500mb next weekend. Let's see where that goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Moderate snow in Mobile AL at hour 174, gotta be a good sign for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 I'm ready for a NW trend on this one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Well, you got nothing between you and the arctic except the Plains (unlike we eastern valley folk who have the plateau), so hopefully it comes screaming in! Meanwhile Euro looks fun at 500mb next weekend. Let's see where that goes. Great point, that’s one of the few bonuses I get on my side of the state! I agree about next weekend, looks very promising at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Stole this from MA forum: Individual GEFS members for next weekend storm: Seriously though, how many look have we had this winter that were nice hits at 7 days, only to trend to rain? Maybe wrong here, but I like being on the NW fringe at 7 days. Still a ways to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Stole this from MA forum: Individual GEFS members for next weekend storm: Seriously though, how many look have we had this winter that were nice hits at 7 days, only to trend to rain? Maybe wrong here, but I like being on the NW fringe at 7 days. Still a ways to go though. Last year seemed like the most fantasy 7-10 day storms in one season I’ve ever seen. This year says hold my beer. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 I know we have been talking about storms...pretty impressive cold around d9-10 of the EPS. Actually, very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I know we have been talking about storms...pretty impressive cold around d9-10 of the EPS. Actually, very impressive. Like how impressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: Like how impressive? Severe cold over the Lakes extending into TN. Trough lifts out shortly after and then goes warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2019 Author Share Posted January 20, 2019 The FV3 is finally beginning to blink on it's big snow totals mid week. It still has a lot of them but not as much or as widespread as the last few runs. It has more ice though. Not sure why it's so insistent on developing the wave on the front when the others aren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 12z GEFS mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Looks like the 18Z GFS is catching on to the ZR idea midweek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2019 Author Share Posted January 20, 2019 25 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: Looks like the 18Z GFS is catching on to the ZR idea midweek It's very close to the FV3 all of a sudden with both snow and zr potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, John1122 said: It's very close to the FV3 all of a sudden with both snow and zr potential. yea, that is what is making me uneasy. Guess I will need to make sure that the wood burning stove is good to go tomorrow. Rather have it and not need that need it and not have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Definite ice threat on the Euro long range,probably take it with a grain of salt at this range tho ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z JAN20 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 12Z 20-JAN -3.4 -10.3 126 0 34010 0.00 SUN 18Z 20-JAN -2.3 -9.7 126 0 34009 0.00 MON 00Z 21-JAN -3.7 -10.9 126 0 34007 0.00 MON 06Z 21-JAN -5.6 -11.5 125 0 04006 0.01 MON 12Z 21-JAN -7.6 -8.2 125 0 05005 0.00 MON 18Z 21-JAN -1.3 -4.6 127 0 07005 0.00 TUE 00Z 22-JAN -1.9 -0.5 129 1953 08005 0.00 TUE 06Z 22-JAN -3.0 3.3 130 7349 14006 0.00 TUE 12Z 22-JAN -0.7 2.7 130 8513 17009 0.00 TUE 18Z 22-JAN 7.2 2.0 131 10458 17012 0.00 WED 00Z 23-JAN 7.7 4.9 133 10593 16013 0.00 WED 06Z 23-JAN 8.9 6.7 134 9252 17015 0.00 WED 12Z 23-JAN 10.0 7.8 134 9162 18016 0.12 WED 18Z 23-JAN 8.4 5.0 134 8325 31007 0.47 THU 00Z 24-JAN 1.9 2.2 131 7679 33007 0.65 THU 06Z 24-JAN -2.1 -4.3 127 0 32007 0.15 THU 12Z 24-JAN -4.7 -6.2 126 0 30006 0.00 THU 18Z 24-JAN 1.2 -6.3 128 91 28006 0.00 FRI 00Z 25-JAN 0.4 -7.4 129 1197 27006 0.00 FRI 06Z 25-JAN -2.3 -9.9 126 0 31010 0.00 FRI 12Z 25-JAN -10.3 -11.6 124 0 32007 0.00 FRI 18Z 25-JAN -3.3 -6.3 126 0 24001 0.00 SAT 00Z 26-JAN -3.1 -3.0 128 0 17006 0.00 SAT 06Z 26-JAN -1.5 -1.7 129 0 20006 0.00 SAT 12Z 26-JAN -0.6 -4.8 129 0 20007 0.00 SAT 18Z 26-JAN 1.7 -5.1 129 512 22003 0.03 SUN 00Z 27-JAN -0.1 -6.5 128 132 36003 0.14 SUN 06Z 27-JAN -4.5 -7.7 127 0 34007 0.07 SUN 12Z 27-JAN -9.3 -7.3 126 0 35006 0.03 SUN 18Z 27-JAN -2.3 -6.8 127 0 35007 0.00 MON 00Z 28-JAN -5.0 -6.7 127 0 34005 0.00 MON 06Z 28-JAN -7.3 -4.2 128 0 33004 0.00 MON 12Z 28-JAN -8.5 -4.2 128 0 19003 0.00 MON 18Z 28-JAN 3.0 -0.7 130 1700 19004 0.00 TUE 00Z 29-JAN 1.9 4.2 132 7089 17007 0.00 TUE 06Z 29-JAN 2.4 6.0 133 6839 19008 0.00 TUE 12Z 29-JAN 3.3 4.3 133 6028 19007 0.01 TUE 18Z 29-JAN 7.4 4.5 133 6332 20007 0.08 WED 00Z 30-JAN 4.7 4.1 133 6906 32004 0.18 WED 06Z 30-JAN -2.5 1.7 129 7491 34007 0.36 WED 12Z 30-JAN -6.9 -0.1 127 4986 35009 0.28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 It's at the very end of it's range and probably not quite handling it properly yet, but the 18z NAM took a small step towards the GFS/FV3 solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 I suspect alot of volatility upcoming with the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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