January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Dont take this the wrong way, but what does that mean? What happened to the really cold air we were seeing modeled yesterday. 

No problem and no offense taken at all.  Cold air and plenty of it is still there.  If the you looked at temps only, you would think the trough was in the East on the 18z GEFS post 300 hours.  At 500 (300+ hours) the trough shifts West but temps don’t drop here.  The surface pattern remains cold while the pattern aloft is different.  The EPS and GEPS are plenty cold.  I think models are very likely trying to break down what will be a verify as a very stubborn high latitude block.  

[weathertree4u]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

No problem and no offense taken at all.  Cold air and plenty of it is still there.  If the you looked at temps only, you would think the trough was in the East on the 18z GEFS post 300 hours.  At 500 (300+ hours) the trough shifts West but temps don’t drop here.  The surface pattern remains cold while the pattern aloft is different.  The EPS and GEPS are plenty cold.  I think models are very likely trying to break down what will be a verify as a very stubborn high latitude block.  

All right, that makes more sense to me, thank you!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

3 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Dont take this the wrong way, but what does that mean?

He can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think he's talking about a 500 mb pattern: 

that would normally look like it has a SE ridge/ developing eastern ridge (we might expect warmer than average), but looking at the temp anomalies:

there seems to be some cold air hanging around. (Although I would say the 850s don't look quite as good):

9 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

What happened to the really cold air we were seeing modeled yesterday.

As much as I enjoyed that, it was the product of a very peculiar and specific set up that dropped the TPV into the CONUS. If that were to be modeled again, or actually happen, it will return. Heck, it could be back at 0z tonight or 18z tomorrow because to be honest, we are talking about 10 day + modeling.  

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, weathertree4u said:

All right, that makes more sense to me, thank you!

I looked this up on Google so hope this is correct...500mb is at about 20,000’.  The surface temps are at 2m.  So the pattern at 20,000’ is not the same as it is at 6’ which, while not rare, can be a bit unusual but very cold air will often be very difficult to root out.  

[Carvers Gap]

FTR, I do think the GEFS is likely way to quick in breaking down the pattern...just something to watch.  Like I mentioned earlier, the Weeklies control run built cold over the NW for a few days and the trough was then forced back into the SE.  

[TellicoWx]

18z GEFS mean looks alot better than last couple runs for the entire state.

 

 

[HSVWx]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

No problem posting your area,i'll include you next time

Thank you Sir, much appreciated my friend!

[tnweathernut]

Just now, TellicoWx said:

18z GEFS mean looks alot better than last couple runs for the entire state.

 

 

For the mid-week event or in the long range?

[TellicoWx]

Just now, tnweathernut said:

For the mid-week event or in the long range?

For the entire run...2" line extends down into central MS/AL. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here is a snow map of happiness and love:

 

[PowellVolz]

Anyone else watching the radar in west Tennessee?


.

[jaxjagman]

36 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Here is a snow map of happiness(blue) and love(purple):

 

Fixed it for you

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Anyone else watching the radar in west Tennessee

If Stovepipe's parents still live in Paris, looks like they are doing pretty well! 

Looks like @The unknown might be going to get an inch or so too!

I'm pulling for all. 

Must be a pretty strong frontal passage when that last line comes through. 

[Drummer230]

10 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Anyone else watching the radar in west Tennessee?


.

I am! Some flurries here so far. 

[PowellVolz]

I am! Some flurries here so far. 

Where?


.

[PowellVolz]

If Stovepipe's parents still live in Paris, looks like they are doing pretty well! 
Looks like [mention=16853]The unknown[/mention] might be going to get an inch or so too!
I'm pulling for all. 
Must be a pretty strong frontal passage when that last line comes through. 

Radar looks better than I expected. Friend in Jackson says ground is white and it’s really coming down. 28 degrees already.


.

[BNAwx]

Hoping the back-end precip doesn’t fizzle out before it reaches Nashville.  The last HRR I looked at (few hours old) looked decent for perhaps a dusting...maybe more if we’re lucky enough to get under a heavier band.  Down to 37 now...

[Holston_River_Rambler]

3k NAM 0z

 

[John1122]

The comma may reach Nashville before it starts dying. I'd say most people west of the Plateau along and north of 40 at least get a white ground. 

[BNAwx]

Starting to get some light snow east side of Nashville.

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, TellicoWx said:

18z GEFS mean looks alot better than last couple runs for the entire state.

Ditto on that comment.  It was about as good a run as one can get at this latitude.  If anyone has the attachment space, feel free to post the 16d total.  Starting to see some consistency in terms of big ensemble runs showing up roughly 2/3 of the time.  Also, thanks to everyone out west for providing updates on the snow.  

[Carvers Gap]

TRI is at +6.7 for the month so far...that number has been cut in half over the past week or so.  I think there is a pretty decent chance that number gets taken back to neutral or even slightly BN.  Should be really interesting to watch as the last few days of the month may be very cold - not to mention the next few days as well.  Minus a few warm days next week, looks like we are now going to enter a base cold pattern.

[Carvers Gap]

Out to 186 on the 0z GFS...pretty cold run going and great set-up so far at 500 that would bring very cold air into the Upper South.

[Drummer230]

2 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

Where?


.

Sorry! Clarksville. Ground is white, probably about .5” so far and it’s coming down pretty good right now. 

[Carvers Gap]

Another note...I think maybe what is going on in the LR might be related to storms firing in the Indian Ocean.  Per JB, those storms signaled the big December warm-up.  He noted that they are supposed to settle down this time incrementally over the next 2-3 weeks.  IDK...seems like later in the season should mute that.  JB also noted this might signal a second stat warm.  So, we might be seeing high latitude blocking fight off the affects of the IO convection, and that might be why we are seeing the cold bank against the Rockies on some runs.  Food for thought.  

[Carvers Gap]

...And a pretty nice run(statewide) of the 0z CMC and ends on a great note at 500.  Looks like three possible events for the forum area...depends on your back yard's location.

[Bango]

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

...And a pretty nice run(statewide) of the 0z CMC and ends on a great note at 500.  Looks like three possible events for the forum area...depends on your back yard's location.

Selfishly, i would love a blend of the cmc and gfs storm track (tri) for the next system

[Carvers Gap]

One thing to remember as we deal with microclimates that seem to get less snow than surrounding areas during winter wx events...remember our ancestors moved to these various microclimates because the wx wasn’t as bad as surrounding areas.  These mini-banana belts often see less extremes.  Pretty smart folks.  

[Bango]

Fv3 continues to show johns glacier (mid tn to plateau into ky.  Its been pretty consistent over the last few runs it seems. Would be beyond epic for you guys

[weathertree4u]

1 hour ago, Drummer230 said:

Sorry! Clarksville. Ground is white, probably about .5” so far and it’s coming down pretty good right now. 

Basically same conditions here in Cottontown.