January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

[Kentucky]

13 minutes ago, Icy Hot said:

Comma head dissipates 

Yeah, kinda figured that was the likely outcome. Always is, never would load past 33 for me

[John1122]

Small scale shifts on 00z with the midweek storm. North Central  TN and South Central Ky fare best this run. Then a potent clipper swings by and pretty much drops moderate snow accumulations almost forum wide.

It will almost have to be warmer than last run, but so far it's pretty similar to 18z through 210 hours.

[John1122]

If we see a giant H in the mid-west that brought the ice box, it's going to come later on this run than 18z. Unlikely to see the crazy snow or crazy snow amounts this time. Still probably looking at a solid 3-8 inches for most of the forum area through 240. There will be a lot of shifts with synoptic features, but as MRX said in their statement from this morning, the cold is coming and snow will be possible. How much and where TBD.

[John1122]

Yep, huge huge huge difference from 18 to 0z.  Hilarious even. There's a 51 degree difference in temps in Indiana from 18z to 0z at 240. 30+ degree differences here.

[Bango]

Oh canada! Out through 240, canadian is a thing of beauty statewide.  Canadian is what i thought the 0z would look more like....that is, a continuation of the great earlier runs from with wall to wall events

[jaxjagman]

damn,look at the 2m's

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z JAN18
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
FRI 12Z 18-JAN                  41.6    41.0    03005   0.00    0.00     100    
FRI 18Z 18-JAN  45.1    41.2    45.2    41.1    07003   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 00Z 19-JAN  49.1    45.2    46.3    43.2    07003   0.00    0.00      93    
SAT 06Z 19-JAN  46.7    44.5    46.4    45.0    15008   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 12Z 19-JAN  50.8    46.4    50.8    50.3    17011   0.24    0.00     100    
SAT 18Z 19-JAN  56.5    50.8    56.6    56.0    18010   0.59    0.00      93    
SUN 00Z 20-JAN  59.9    50.6    49.9    48.9    29008   0.18    0.00      81    
SUN 06Z 20-JAN  49.9    29.9    29.7    23.9    33014   0.08    0.05     100    
SUN 12Z 20-JAN  29.7    23.3    23.2    13.4    34012   0.00    0.00      42    
SUN 18Z 20-JAN  29.1    22.5    29.2    13.2    33009   0.00    0.00      93    
MON 00Z 21-JAN  30.9    27.1    27.0    13.7    35006   0.00    0.00      70    
MON 06Z 21-JAN  27.0    21.2    21.1     6.5    04005   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 12Z 21-JAN  21.2    18.9    18.9     4.7    05005   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 18Z 21-JAN  30.5    18.7    30.8     5.7    07004   0.00    0.00      89    
TUE 00Z 22-JAN  34.1    28.1    28.2    11.1    09005   0.00    0.00      78    
TUE 06Z 22-JAN  28.5    26.6    27.4    10.0    15007   0.00    0.00      43    
TUE 12Z 22-JAN  32.0    27.3    31.9    19.3    17010   0.00    0.00      65    
TUE 18Z 22-JAN  44.5    31.9    44.8    26.4    17012   0.00    0.00      97    
WED 00Z 23-JAN  46.5    44.5    46.2    34.2    17012   0.00    0.00     100    
WED 06Z 23-JAN  47.8    45.9    47.9    43.1    18014   0.04    0.00      99    
WED 12Z 23-JAN  50.0    47.7    49.8    46.6    18014   0.06    0.00     100    
WED 18Z 23-JAN  55.1    49.3    54.7    51.6    20007   0.22    0.00     100    
THU 00Z 24-JAN  54.7    41.4    41.2    41.0    34007   0.23    0.00     100    
THU 06Z 24-JAN  41.2    36.8    36.9    36.7    01007   0.37    0.00     100    
THU 12Z 24-JAN  37.0    36.4    36.4    36.1    00007   0.16    0.00     100    
THU 18Z 24-JAN  36.6    35.1    35.0    34.7    34011   0.68    0.00     100    
FRI 00Z 25-JAN  35.2    31.9    31.8    28.1    31011   0.60    0.29      97    
FRI 06Z 25-JAN  31.9    28.0    28.2    22.1    31007   0.01    0.01      98    
FRI 12Z 25-JAN  28.4    23.1    23.0    15.3    32007   0.00    0.00      68    
FRI 18Z 25-JAN  27.1    21.1    27.4    11.5    34002   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 00Z 26-JAN  31.2    25.3    25.9    13.4    07003   0.00    0.00      99    
SAT 06Z 26-JAN  27.3    21.7    25.7    15.2    15004   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 12Z 26-JAN  32.5    25.3    32.6    24.8    18007   0.01    0.01     100    
SAT 18Z 26-JAN  35.5    32.6    35.2    33.2    20006   0.17    0.14     100    
SUN 00Z 27-JAN  35.9    22.8    22.4    18.2    34012   0.34    0.29     100    
SUN 06Z 27-JAN  22.4     6.2     5.8    -3.9    32013   0.31    0.31      99    
SUN 12Z 27-JAN   5.8    -6.6    -6.8   -14.8    32008   0.01    0.01      34    
SUN 18Z 27-JAN  -1.4    -8.7    -1.2   -16.8    28010   0.00    0.00      94    
MON 00Z 28-JAN   0.5    -2.4    -2.2   -15.3    28009   0.00    0.00       5    
MON 06Z 28-JAN  -2.2    -9.0    -9.1   -15.8    27006   0.00    0.00       3    
MON 12Z 28-JAN  -9.1   -12.8   -12.9   -18.6    26005   0.00    0.00       8  

[jaxjagman]

I use to find record temps easily using intellicast but they merged with weather underground yesterday so things are different,annoying

 

https://feedback.weather.com/customer/portal/articles/2966752-intellicast-merges-with-weather-underground?b_id=17298

[John1122]

Great run of the Canadian as noted.  It's still snowing almost forum wide at 240 when this ends. 

 

[John1122]

Even though it evolved differently in the post 200hrs time frame, the GFS arrived here under 200hrs 

[jaxjagman]

Euro shows the trough going -ve tilt and pulls that LP back into the lakes into Southern Canada,this acts as a 50/50 which would help the cold  get down to the Valley.If it's right is another thing

[John1122]

The FV3 builds a glacier west of the Plateau up through Kentucky. The midweek system just plasters that area on there. 

[HSVWx]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

damn,look at the 2m's

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z JAN18
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
FRI 12Z 18-JAN                  41.6    41.0    03005   0.00    0.00     100    
FRI 18Z 18-JAN  45.1    41.2    45.2    41.1    07003   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 00Z 19-JAN  49.1    45.2    46.3    43.2    07003   0.00    0.00      93    
SAT 06Z 19-JAN  46.7    44.5    46.4    45.0    15008   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 12Z 19-JAN  50.8    46.4    50.8    50.3    17011   0.24    0.00     100    
SAT 18Z 19-JAN  56.5    50.8    56.6    56.0    18010   0.59    0.00      93    
SUN 00Z 20-JAN  59.9    50.6    49.9    48.9    29008   0.18    0.00      81    
SUN 06Z 20-JAN  49.9    29.9    29.7    23.9    33014   0.08    0.05     100    
SUN 12Z 20-JAN  29.7    23.3    23.2    13.4    34012   0.00    0.00      42    
SUN 18Z 20-JAN  29.1    22.5    29.2    13.2    33009   0.00    0.00      93    
MON 00Z 21-JAN  30.9    27.1    27.0    13.7    35006   0.00    0.00      70    
MON 06Z 21-JAN  27.0    21.2    21.1     6.5    04005   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 12Z 21-JAN  21.2    18.9    18.9     4.7    05005   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 18Z 21-JAN  30.5    18.7    30.8     5.7    07004   0.00    0.00      89    
TUE 00Z 22-JAN  34.1    28.1    28.2    11.1    09005   0.00    0.00      78    
TUE 06Z 22-JAN  28.5    26.6    27.4    10.0    15007   0.00    0.00      43    
TUE 12Z 22-JAN  32.0    27.3    31.9    19.3    17010   0.00    0.00      65    
TUE 18Z 22-JAN  44.5    31.9    44.8    26.4    17012   0.00    0.00      97    
WED 00Z 23-JAN  46.5    44.5    46.2    34.2    17012   0.00    0.00     100    
WED 06Z 23-JAN  47.8    45.9    47.9    43.1    18014   0.04    0.00      99    
WED 12Z 23-JAN  50.0    47.7    49.8    46.6    18014   0.06    0.00     100    
WED 18Z 23-JAN  55.1    49.3    54.7    51.6    20007   0.22    0.00     100    
THU 00Z 24-JAN  54.7    41.4    41.2    41.0    34007   0.23    0.00     100    
THU 06Z 24-JAN  41.2    36.8    36.9    36.7    01007   0.37    0.00     100    
THU 12Z 24-JAN  37.0    36.4    36.4    36.1    00007   0.16    0.00     100    
THU 18Z 24-JAN  36.6    35.1    35.0    34.7    34011   0.68    0.00     100    
FRI 00Z 25-JAN  35.2    31.9    31.8    28.1    31011   0.60    0.29      97    
FRI 06Z 25-JAN  31.9    28.0    28.2    22.1    31007   0.01    0.01      98    
FRI 12Z 25-JAN  28.4    23.1    23.0    15.3    32007   0.00    0.00      68    
FRI 18Z 25-JAN  27.1    21.1    27.4    11.5    34002   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 00Z 26-JAN  31.2    25.3    25.9    13.4    07003   0.00    0.00      99    
SAT 06Z 26-JAN  27.3    21.7    25.7    15.2    15004   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 12Z 26-JAN  32.5    25.3    32.6    24.8    18007   0.01    0.01     100    
SAT 18Z 26-JAN  35.5    32.6    35.2    33.2    20006   0.17    0.14     100    
SUN 00Z 27-JAN  35.9    22.8    22.4    18.2    34012   0.34    0.29     100    
SUN 06Z 27-JAN  22.4     6.2     5.8    -3.9    32013   0.31    0.31      99    
SUN 12Z 27-JAN   5.8    -6.6    -6.8   -14.8    32008   0.01    0.01      34    
SUN 18Z 27-JAN  -1.4    -8.7    -1.2   -16.8    28010   0.00    0.00      94    
MON 00Z 28-JAN   0.5    -2.4    -2.2   -15.3    28009   0.00    0.00       5    
MON 06Z 28-JAN  -2.2    -9.0    -9.1   -15.8    27006   0.00    0.00       3    
MON 12Z 28-JAN  -9.1   -12.8   -12.9   -18.6    26005   0.00    0.00       8  

What link can I find this at please?
Tim

[jaxjagman]

18 minutes ago, HSVWx said:

What link can I find this at please?
Tim

It's on accu pro

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

You can see what a subtle change will do in the pattern

[weathertree4u]

2 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

damn,look at the 2m's

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z JAN18
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
FRI 12Z 18-JAN                  41.6    41.0    03005   0.00    0.00     100    
FRI 18Z 18-JAN  45.1    41.2    45.2    41.1    07003   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 00Z 19-JAN  49.1    45.2    46.3    43.2    07003   0.00    0.00      93    
SAT 06Z 19-JAN  46.7    44.5    46.4    45.0    15008   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 12Z 19-JAN  50.8    46.4    50.8    50.3    17011   0.24    0.00     100    
SAT 18Z 19-JAN  56.5    50.8    56.6    56.0    18010   0.59    0.00      93    
SUN 00Z 20-JAN  59.9    50.6    49.9    48.9    29008   0.18    0.00      81    
SUN 06Z 20-JAN  49.9    29.9    29.7    23.9    33014   0.08    0.05     100    
SUN 12Z 20-JAN  29.7    23.3    23.2    13.4    34012   0.00    0.00      42    
SUN 18Z 20-JAN  29.1    22.5    29.2    13.2    33009   0.00    0.00      93    
MON 00Z 21-JAN  30.9    27.1    27.0    13.7    35006   0.00    0.00      70    
MON 06Z 21-JAN  27.0    21.2    21.1     6.5    04005   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 12Z 21-JAN  21.2    18.9    18.9     4.7    05005   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 18Z 21-JAN  30.5    18.7    30.8     5.7    07004   0.00    0.00      89    
TUE 00Z 22-JAN  34.1    28.1    28.2    11.1    09005   0.00    0.00      78    
TUE 06Z 22-JAN  28.5    26.6    27.4    10.0    15007   0.00    0.00      43    
TUE 12Z 22-JAN  32.0    27.3    31.9    19.3    17010   0.00    0.00      65    
TUE 18Z 22-JAN  44.5    31.9    44.8    26.4    17012   0.00    0.00      97    
WED 00Z 23-JAN  46.5    44.5    46.2    34.2    17012   0.00    0.00     100    
WED 06Z 23-JAN  47.8    45.9    47.9    43.1    18014   0.04    0.00      99    
WED 12Z 23-JAN  50.0    47.7    49.8    46.6    18014   0.06    0.00     100    
WED 18Z 23-JAN  55.1    49.3    54.7    51.6    20007   0.22    0.00     100    
THU 00Z 24-JAN  54.7    41.4    41.2    41.0    34007   0.23    0.00     100    
THU 06Z 24-JAN  41.2    36.8    36.9    36.7    01007   0.37    0.00     100    
THU 12Z 24-JAN  37.0    36.4    36.4    36.1    00007   0.16    0.00     100    
THU 18Z 24-JAN  36.6    35.1    35.0    34.7    34011   0.68    0.00     100    
FRI 00Z 25-JAN  35.2    31.9    31.8    28.1    31011   0.60    0.29      97    
FRI 06Z 25-JAN  31.9    28.0    28.2    22.1    31007   0.01    0.01      98    
FRI 12Z 25-JAN  28.4    23.1    23.0    15.3    32007   0.00    0.00      68    
FRI 18Z 25-JAN  27.1    21.1    27.4    11.5    34002   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 00Z 26-JAN  31.2    25.3    25.9    13.4    07003   0.00    0.00      99    
SAT 06Z 26-JAN  27.3    21.7    25.7    15.2    15004   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 12Z 26-JAN  32.5    25.3    32.6    24.8    18007   0.01    0.01     100    
SAT 18Z 26-JAN  35.5    32.6    35.2    33.2    20006   0.17    0.14     100    
SUN 00Z 27-JAN  35.9    22.8    22.4    18.2    34012   0.34    0.29     100    
SUN 06Z 27-JAN  22.4     6.2     5.8    -3.9    32013   0.31    0.31      99    
SUN 12Z 27-JAN   5.8    -6.6    -6.8   -14.8    32008   0.01    0.01      34    
SUN 18Z 27-JAN  -1.4    -8.7    -1.2   -16.8    28010   0.00    0.00      94    
MON 00Z 28-JAN   0.5    -2.4    -2.2   -15.3    28009   0.00    0.00       5    
MON 06Z 28-JAN  -2.2    -9.0    -9.1   -15.8    27006   0.00    0.00       3    
MON 12Z 28-JAN  -9.1   -12.8   -12.9   -18.6    26005   0.00    0.00       8  

What is that at the surface?

[jaxjagman]

11 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

What is that at the surface?

Nothing like tonight from this afternoon

[weathertree4u]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Nothing like tonight from this afternoon

Ok, I had interpreted the post as something worse than or colder than the afternoon run of the model but you are saying it is warmer. 

[John1122]

Edit: Never mind, was apparently looking at the 18z again.

Still lots of frozen precip depicted on the 06z run. Just not the super cold again but still well below normal.

[weathertree4u]

11 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The 06z went back to what the 18z depicted for the most part. A whole lot of frozen precip in the form of ice/sleet and snow, and record cold. Through 240 a lot of frozen falls, and it continues on after 240 though the end of the run. Some -10s and -20s show up in the region as well.

I must have the incorrect url for the euro - I thought it ran just twice a day

[John1122]

Just now, weathertree4u said:

I must have the incorrect url for the euro - I thought it ran just twice a day

It was the GFS I was looking at but somehow loaded the 18z run instead of the 06z run and thought at first it had bounced back to record cold.

But the Euro does run 4x a day now, it just runs it's full length at 0z and 12z and runs out to around 90 or 120 hours on its 18z and 06z runs. 

[weathertree4u]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

It was the GFS I was looking at but somehow loaded the 18z run instead of the 06z run and thought at first it had bounced back to record cold.

But the Euro does run 4x a day now, it just runs it's full length at 0z and 12z and runs out to around 90 or 120 hours on its 18z and 06z runs. 

The GFS seems to be bouncing around not sure that I put allot of weight in it anymore really

[John1122]

The GFS is probably about where we want it, temp wise, at 06. Cold enough for frozen but not so cold we'd have to do Alaskan level prep for daily living.

[weathertree4u]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

The GFS is probably about where we want it, temp wise, at 06. Cold enough for frozen but not so cold we'd have to do Alaskan level prep for daily living.

True enough!

[John1122]

Just now, weathertree4u said:

The GFS seems to be bouncing around not sure that I put allot of weight in it anymore really

Honestly, the Euro is too. Right now, it's even harder than normal to put much stock in when/where individual systems will come along on any model. They are hopefully pretty close on the pattern but the 0z op GFS took a big jump on that too, but the 0z run didn't have much support from it's ensembles, so I can see why it looks much more favorable for frozen this run vs that huge rainer all the way to southern Michigan at 0z.

[weathertree4u]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Honestly, the Euro is too. Right now, it's even harder than normal to put much stock in when/where individual systems will come along on any model. They are hopefully pretty close on the pattern but the 0z op GFS took a big jump on that too, but the 0z run didn't have much support from it's ensembles, so I can see why it looks much more favorable for frozen this run vs that huge rainer all the way to southern Michigan at 0z.

Will be interested to see what the GFS-FV3 and the Euro have to say today. Wonder that if we get another icebox run of the Euro today at noon?

[John1122]

Most of this snow comes from a system later, but the mid week system is a big ice producer this run from the Plateau and west. Sleet in central areas where the cold is deeper, to freezing rain along the plateau. The frozen line would probably be further south and east, the models very often struggle with Arctic air pushing into the area and try and keep it bottled up too far west.

 

 

 

[weathertree4u]

Just now, John1122 said:

Most of this snow comes from a system later, but the mid week system is a big ice producer this run from the Plateau and west. Sleet in central areas where the cold is deeper, to freezing rain along the plateau. The frozen line would probably be further south and east, the models very often struggle with Arctic air pushing into the area and try and keep it bottled up too far west.

 

 

 

With the pattern we are in, no one needs an ice storm; cant imagine being without power for an extended time with temps possibly lurking near or below zero. 

[John1122]

Just now, weathertree4u said:

Will be interested to see what the GFS-FV3 and the Euro have to say today. Wonder that if we get another icebox run of the Euro today at noon?

I can't imagine it will be quite as cold as yesterdays runs. I'm not sure what data the models were fed for them to come to such a similar outcome. Models are usually going to be a little more off from each other than the Euro/GFS were at that range. OP runs can produce some extremes and after day 5-6 looking at the ensembles will usually work better for seeing the pattern at 500.

[John1122]

3 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

With the pattern we are in, no one needs an ice storm; cant imagine being without power for an extended time with temps possibly lurking near or below zero. 

Ice is pretty common during these situations, and middle Tennessee is usually a prime area for it when Arctic air undercuts precip. The front stalls just on the other side of the mountains and a wave rides up it.  Sub freezing surface temps undercut the precip from the Plateau and west as it rides up the front. Once the low gets north of the area, it pulls a little more cold air into the eastern sections and changes precip over to light snow.

Each model is handling it differently. The FV3 just crushes middle Tennessee with frozen. The GFS less so but still significant icing with sleet and snow on top of it. The Euro at 0z was much warmer for it as it didn't really have the Arctic air nearly as strongly undercutting the precip and was generally a rain event. The Canadian was colder than the Euro and was about middle ground between the GFS/FV3 and the Euro. It stalled the front on the Apps an the low rides up generally over East Tennessee. So everything was warmer but still with some frozen. 

Once the system starting today finishes, we should get better ideas what to look towards on Wednesday. Then that system will effect the next one coming a few days later and so on. Small changes in each results in big model swings at range.