January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

[Kentucky]

 

[WinterWonderland]

John, I recall the February 1996 storm well.  I have never seen it snow so hard in my life.  We received about 22 inches here in Anderson County and because of the long term cold, it lasted a while.  There were also a few more snows shortly after that.  It pretty much shut our town down.  The blizzard of '93 was cool with it's thundersnow, but the memorable one for me was the '96 event because of the sustained cold and snowpacked roads. Great sledding for days!!

Also, I remember before the storm hit that the prediction was for inches of ice, not snow.  Thank God that didn't happen.  Started as sleet for a bit then an all snow, BEAUTIFUL storm!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

@Kentucky

FROM: JKL

A quick glance at the 12z ECMWF shows a harsh dive into bitter
winter conditions for next week - as well as significant snow for
a good portion of the CWA Thursday and over next weekend. Should
this solution pan out this could turn out to be one of the
harshest and snowiest mid winter pattern for eastern Kentucky on
record.

[Kentucky]

11 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

@Kentucky

FROM: JKL

A quick glance at the 12z ECMWF shows a harsh dive into bitter
winter conditions for next week - as well as significant snow for
a good portion of the CWA Thursday and over next weekend. Should
this solution pan out this could turn out to be one of the
harshest and snowiest mid winter pattern for eastern Kentucky on
record.

great find, don't see that from jkl often...

[John1122]

5 minutes ago, WinterWonderland said:

John, I recall the February 1996 storm well.  I have never seen it snow so hard in my life.  We received about 22 inches here in Anderson County and because of the long term cold, it lasted a while.  There were also a few more snows shortly after that.  It pretty much shut our town down.  The blizzard of '93 was cool with it's thundersnow, but the memorable one for me was the '96 event because of the sustained cold and snowpacked roads. Great sledding for days!!

Also, I remember before the storm hit that the prediction was for inches of ice, not snow.  Thank God that didn't happen.  Started as sleet for a bit then an all snow, BEAUTIFUL storm!

It was a great event, we had 20s for highs in advance of the storm. I was working on Douglas Lake at the time and can still remember driving home from work on a bright sunny day, cold, but blue skies, when the winter storm warnings went up. The next evening it started snowing and snowed at about 1-2 inches per hour for the next 12 hours. There was an especially heavy swath from Roane/Anderson/North Knox/Union/Jefferson of 18-24 inches. One of the guys I worked with was from Maynardville and he got 20 inches. 

That his on February 2nd. February 4th it was -20 here. So as you said, the snow stuck around for a while. That winter was just epic. There were snow piles here into March. 

[1234snow]

I’ll share a few different graphics from the 12z Euro.

850 mb temps got to a rare -30 degrees C at the end of the run. -35 values as you get into Ohio Valley



Also pushing 8” of QPF in southern areas. Widespread AN precip across Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

[John1122]

GFS ratio'd snow for Wednesday. Crippling ice possible too. There could also be significant sleet in Central areas of Tennessee as well that aren't on either of these maps.

[Kentucky]

I'll take it, would be more than we've had all winter

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I remember in the old days mets on the Weather Channel would talk about "the Motherlode" coming out of Canada.

18z GFS agreed with 12z Euro, but is a little different in how it gets us there. I know it's a ways out there, but wow:

TRI makes it to -22 at 6z Jan 30th. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

On 12/30/2018 at 10:24 PM, weathertree4u said:

eventual 1985 vodka cold?

I said I didn't know at the time. I do now. Vodka cold it is. 

[AMZ8990]

23 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I remember in the old days mets on the Weather Chanel would talk about "the Motherlode" coming out of Canada.

18z GFS agreed with 12z Euro, but is a little different in how it gets us there. I know it's a ways out there, but wow:

TRI makes it to -22 at 6z Jan 30th. 

  Eric Webb says “this is about the coldest Planetary-Scale pattern you can ask for”.  He was referring to the tail end of January into early February.  I don’t even follow the guy but I found it interesting when I read it in another forum.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

@Kentucky I hope this pattern will wipe out some of the bad breaks you've had with warm noses the past few years. 

[John1122]

This would be history making. Polar vortex is in Southern Ohio. These temps are noon/1pm.

[Kentucky]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

@Kentucky I hope this pattern will wipe out some of the bad breaks you've had with warm noses the past few years. 

Yeah, it's been a brutal run here. It's always something, either warm nose or energy transfers. Hoping we can all cash in next week 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Fv3 Kuchera ratio'd combined with temps is going to be a model run for the decade for TN. 

Fv3 is cold biased and it's the Fv3, but Lord have mercy. When it finishes, I will post it. 

 

[AMZ8990]

18 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Fv3 Kuchera ratio'd combined with temps is going to be a model run for the decade for TN. 

Fv3 is cold biased and it's the Fv3, but Lord have mercy. When it finishes, I will post it. 

 

Definitely a big time run!  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Got tired of waiting for the whole run, but there was one storm left and cold to go:

 

Basically the entire state is at One foot. Apologies on the resolution of the images

 

[1234snow]

18z FV3 was wave after wave of snow and cold in the long range.

[Kasper]

6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Got tired of waiting for the whole run, but there was one storm left and cold to go:

 

Basically the entire state is at One foot. Apologies on the resolution of the images

She’s a Beaut Clarke.

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, Kasper said:

She’s a Beaut Clarke.

Yes.

 

Yes she is. 

[Kentucky]

I'd like to see the snow maps on this. Appears 18z run is not to kind to the eastern forum, but hard to tell

[BlunderStorm]

25 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Got tired of waiting for the whole run, but there was one storm left and cold to go:

 

Basically the entire state is at One foot. Apologies on the resolution of the images

 

Everyone wins with the FV3! No one is left out haha.

[tnweathernut]

I have often wondered what it would be like to literally fatigue tracking winter systems.  If today’s model runs are any indication, we might be about to head down that road.......

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

@Kentucky

 

To me, these TROWAL ish comma head set ups are basically a watch and see

 

[ShawnEastTN]

I am extremely excited, and hopeful but there is a part of me that begins to worry about storm track suppression if we can't get something at the start of the cold intrusion especially with it being so insanely strong. We seem to score at the start of an outbreak and when it begins to retreat so I'm hopeful we can get our break.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Ok, so saw the Wind Chill posted in the SE forum for Boone based on 18z GFS. Decided to try and figure it out for White Rocks (ridge above Ewing, VA); date, Jan 29.

temp at 925mb, -29 F; wind, 15 knots

wind chill = -46.8 F

Not saying that will verify, but just impressed that it is even on the table. 

Looked like Roane Mt would be  -53 wind chill or so at that time period. 

[BlunderStorm]

If this holds in the modeling I feel we may need to make a new combined topic for both the arctic outbreak and potential storms.  Leading up to it I'm not sure if This Sunday's storm qualifies for a thread but I think wednesday-thursday will warrant one if it's still significant by Sunday.

[Kentucky]

 

00z HRRR, thru 33

[Icy Hot]

1 minute ago, Kentucky said:

 

00z HRRR, thru 33

Comma head dissipates 

[tnweathernut]

4 minutes ago, Kentucky said:

 

00z HRRR, thru 33

Keeps hope alive for you guys in middle and west TN.  Hope you get in on some snow, good luck!