January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Yeah I think other than the possibilities with Jan. 3-5 storm, it may be punting time for the first half of Jan. Masiello said yesterday 10-15 days minimum until the current convective mess in the Maritime Continent breaks down.  What does that have to do with us? Current MJO is helping aim the Pacific firehose right into our faces and I'd be willing to bet it has something to do with the Nina-esque SOI, too. Eric Webb pointed out yesterday that while the Northern SPV was weakening, the Southern SPV was dying its annual death.  These two polar warmings have cooled the lower tropical stratosphere and may have helped create a favorable environment for convection. It was our luck that this coincided with the MJO heading into bad phases for our region, so that may help explain why it is so amped.  Maybe a case of the strat. being not quite so helpful in the short term?  Until all this worked out fully (i.e. MJO gets to moving and some stability for more than a day or two with the PV split and percolation down to the troposphere) I think there will be mucho uncertainty, flip-flopping, and much of it looking bad in the long run. But hey, who wants to be in the bull's eye at 30 days? Not me. Then you also have to hope the bad pattern doesn't linger longer than that. Pattern changes always take little longer than they seem they will at first.  20 days for clarity with maybe some nice looks showing up in the mid to long range earlier.

At this point I think we need to root for the Pacific jet to get straightened out. For us, whether it be bowling ball upper lows, Arctic outbreaks, clippers, or a majestic phased bomb coming out of the Gulf, it all starts with the Pacific pushing energy toward us, or allowing Highs to drop in. Pretty much every time the Pac jet retracts this winter we've had a shot, whether they were long shots that failed, or the one big hit for some.  That jet has got to retract and become more favorable for sending cold air toward us to meet the energy under us. The energy under us has never been a problem this year, and I see signs of the Pac jet changing in the long range. Disregarding everything else (probably at my own peril) the end of the EPS runs has lately been showing the Aleutian trough developing. Classic Nino. Now, I know it was showing that earlier and it never materialized, so why should it now? Remember the discussion from Dec. when there was talk of the dreaded "pig" (Gulf of Alaska trough) showing up? That backed off a bit and it seemed for a time that we might have only a week or so in mid/late December of AN temps. Well, I think the piggy was delayed but not denied and it makes sense given the Nina SOI and where the MJO was heading at that time. Now I think the Aleutian Low is in the same position. It's coming, but struggling to get here. Heck I think it has even occasionally tried to set up, but the Pac jet just keeps that energy moving on toward N. America. Let's get the upstream fixed and then see what happens. 

What's to stop this being another 94/95 or any of the other bad analogues? I don't know and I suppose it could very well be, but much wiser weather minds than mine didn't think so in their early predictions, so I'll use them as a crutch for now.

Hey, maybe we get the best of both worlds, a front loaded Nina sort of hit (Dec 10), then a back loaded Nino last week of Jan - first or second week of March? I like Carver's fishing analogy for where we're at right now. 

TL;DR: Let's get the MJO into 8-1-2 and see what happens. The origin of the word patience is the latin verb patior: suffer. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I'll add one more thought and then try to leave it for a while. Last year we talked about the atmosphere being "hungover" after the SSW. I think right now a good analogy might be that the atmosphere has a viral cold (MJO influenced Pac jet).

Things were looking good in Dec. Weeklies (Euro's at least, CFS not so much) looked brilliant and we had a good shot in early Dec. But viruses usually come on quickly. Just like a human, out of the blue, there's that tickle in your throat or stuffiness in your head (the AK trough). You feel good otherwise, maybe it'll pass. Sometimes it does, hey maybe it was just an allergy. Slowly though, you come to realize it's a cold. And it gets worse (MJO stall and Pac jet). You're not so hard up that you have to stop working, but it just makes you feel miserable. What did it feel like to be well again?  Once it sets in, it's a slow step-by-step process to get better. There are days where there seems to be no progress(these are big systemic processes happening with the MJO and Strat). No antibiotics for a virus, you just have to let it run its course. But one day you wake up and realize things are substantially better and before you know it, you forget what it was like to be sick. 

I think there will come a day soon when we'll look back and feel the same way. Hey, in the meantime we have Jan 3-5 to track!

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I'll add one more thought and then try to leave it for a while. Last year we talked about the atmosphere being "hungover" after the SSW. I think right now a good analogy might be that the atmosphere has a viral cold (MJO influenced Pac jet).

Things were looking good in Dec. Weeklies (Euro's at least, CFS not so much) looked brilliant and we had a good shot in early Dec. But viruses usually come on quickly. Just like a human, out of the blue, there's that tickle in your throat or stuffiness in your head (the AK trough). You feel good otherwise, maybe it'll pass. Sometimes it does, hey maybe it was just an allergy. Slowly though, you come to realize it's a cold. And it gets worse (MJO stall and Pac jet). You're not so hard up that you have to stop working, but it just makes you feel miserable. What did it feel like to be well again?  Once it sets in, it's a slow step-by-step process to get better. There are days where there seems to be no progress(these are big systemic processes happening with the MJO and Strat). No antibiotics for a virus, you just have to let it run its course. But one day you wake up and realize things are substantially better and before you know it, you forget what it was like to be sick. 

I think there will come a day soon when we'll look back and feel the same way. Hey, in the meantime we have Jan 3-5 to track!

One heck of an analogy and explanation brother! Kudos ! I would weigh in but, no need to as I don't think anyone could detail it better in an easy to understand,  ingenious way ! MJO clearly ruling the roost now. Of course, other than God. 

[Carvers Gap]

Agree w/ @PowellVolz.  Very little support for the Monday run of the Weeklies.  At this point is an outlier.  I am waiting until the last minute before finalizing my ideas for January temps.  I was leaning a bit BN after Thursday's Weeklies.  I am likely reverting back to my original idea before winter began.(Before winter began, I had December temps as slightly AN, January as normalish, and Feb as BN...the overall winter as normal in terms of temps and slightly AN for snow).  As a word of caution, the late October and early November LR wx models were toasty with their depictions of November and then subsequently missed the eastern trough amplification that led to significant cold for most of the forum area.  One has to wonder if a similar repeat of that flip will occur - what happens in November, the winter will remember as they saying goes.  There have been some great winters that did not start until late January.  Now, if in two weeks the cold has been pushed back again, this time into February...time to regroup.  As Jeff mentioned at the end of the December thread, it is never a good sign that the cold is being pushed back.  I was definitely excited to see the Weeklies run on Monday, but have never really bought into the BN idea for the entire winter - I think I had us as finishing around normal for temps.  My main reasoning is that warm periods during winter these days tend to be very strong and can erase BN departures.   I think I even posted the 94-95 analog at one point that was a dud.  There have been times that I have wavered, but generally if something looks to good to be true...it likely is.  However, I can't really complain.  I have seen a 11.5" snowfall already IMBY in early December which is a true rarity.  That said, it would be excellent for others along the I-40 corridor to see some snow as well.  All of that said, I have said from the get-go that IMHO that this winter could be a backloaded year for cold and snow - and that those types of winters are not my favorite because of how long it takes for them to evolve.  I have no changes to that...again, if in two weeks things have not changed I will be concerned that we are headed to the 94-95 analog.  But honestly, this year is its own analog.  Crazy strat split possible, MJO not coupled w the El Nino, SOI positive when it should have been negative, etc.  But if November taught me anything, it is to be patient as models work things out.  (As donsutherland noted, there are several factors that are likely causing current modeling to flip around.)  I remember showing John a warm GEFS and/or EPS map during early November, and next thing I know...the models had flipped colder for mid November and kept pushing back the warmth into December.  One idea that has verified unfortunately is that when those extreme BN heights showed up over AK in modeling for mid-December, that pattern has been very difficult to uproot in reality.  That turned out to be a pattern reversal instead of a relaxation.  I generally give patterns 4-6 weeks of run time.  The end of January should see a change based on that timeline and Nino climatology w the transition possibly beginning during week 3.  What makes the January temp call tough, is that if/when this pattern flips there are some really good seasonal drivers waiting in the wings w the strongest card being that weak El Nino's are infamous in starting late.  So, let's say if the first two weeks are AN, week three is normal w the fourth week being strongly BN...that last week could erase most of those AN temps.  I still think the temps for this winter will end-up being near normal...that seemed like a pretty warm idea prior to winter.  Now it might be a bit too cold.  

I will note that one thing that is great about this sub-forum is the respect that members have for others and that folks don't complain when a pattern turns against whatever wx they were hoping for.  And I think this is also a place where we can kick ideas around and risk being wrong.  The only way to get better is by taking risks....  I think this sub-forum has gained some respect for being steady.  

Lastly, I did give the 12z EPS a look. Still warm, but with significant changes over the Davis Straits...not sure if that feature would become a -NAO or connect to the eastern ridge and become a WAR.  FTR, I look at 5 day means during the d10-15 range vs just looking at one day.  That 5 day mean has changed over that region.  Might be a precursor to blocking and a retrograding pattern...or it could accentuate the ridge over NA.

[Carvers Gap]

One other piece of information is that the SOI has dropped to +6.64.  One thing that Sutherland mentions as well is that the SOI likely falls to negative once the MJO rotates into phases 7 and 8(paraphrasing...hopefully I didn't butcher that).  A falling SOI is a good thing.  Hopefully it continues that trend.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

 

[PowellVolz]

Carvers Gap I believe said the other day and I agreed with him then that it’s not a positive sign when the pattern flip or cold air coming sets up but stays 2 weeks away on the mods. This happened a few years ago and it wasn’t until late in the season that it actually planned out but by then climo was working against us. Still a long way to go though.

 

 

.

 

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Carvers Gap I believe said the other day and I agreed with him then that it’s not a positive sign when the pattern flip or cold air coming sets up but stays 2 weeks away on the mods. This happened a few years ago and it wasn’t until late in the season that it actually planned out but by then climo was working against us. Still a long way to go though.

Yep.  And the thing now is that the cold is not even on LR modeling ensembles other than the Weeklies.  I kind of roll w Sutherland right now that the wx models are juggling so much stuff, that the actual outcomes are not being modeled well.  But like you said, the first half of January doesn't look great.  I would be really surprised if that changed despite so many variables being uncertain.  I "think" Nino climatology will finally win out, but like you say this is never a given.  Some winters can be duds in terms of temps.  I still think we get a good run, but likely after halftime.

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

13 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Still a long way to go though.

100% agree. 

On a more near term note, I'm glad this system for tomorrow night is looking less wet. My yard at least needs to dry out a bit before the next one comes up.

The NAM is now looking like the Euro and UK for the Jan 3rd storm. More consolidated with the energy as it ejects out of the  Southwest. Almost a spring like bowling ball upper low. 

43 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

But honestly, this year is its own analog.

Yep.

On this note have you seen some people talking about ENSO lag in the atmosphere? I don't think there's been any research specifically aimed at that, but interesting concept.  And speaking of analogues if and only if this winter turns out to be a dud, there will be some big names who I bet will be rethinking how they use analogues for future forecasts. Examples: Earthlight (John Homenuk), Isotherm, D. Sutherland. I've also seen some people mention that 1981-2010 period was just colder than we are now and so shouldn't be used in analogues any longer, but they could be overreacting. I also don't mean to sound like I'm criticizing the big names above because I'm not. I didn't make a seasonal forecast, so I feel like I have a right to say anything bad about theirs. Just crazy if it turns out so, because they are so usually spot on. To be fair to them though, they haven't jumped ship yet. 

On the other hand the Masiello seems to think this cycle we're in was somewhat predictable (note he has offered more explanation on the SSW bit). As I understand it he's talking about the physics principles behind the amped Pac jet. 

 

but as usual once I think I have something he says figured out, he ups the ante. 

One thing I'll mention (and I kinda hate to, but might as well lay all the cards out on the table) is that I think there may be a second warming of the strat, after the current one and split. GFS and Euro show it. Doesn't mean it will happen, but worth mentioning. I REALLY REALLY hope that doesn't lead to more cooling in the tropics and gets us stuck back where we are again, but I think it is a possibility since there seems to be a connection to strat. warming and the MJO regions 4-5-6. On the other hand, maybe the MJO gets out of 6, makes it into 7 and then 8-1-2 and then some of that cooling keeps it there. That would be nice!

Really didn't mean to write all that...

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Really interesting conversation in the NE forum regarding the Euro and EPS and 00z/ 12z runs. Implication, at least I think, is that the 12z runs do better with convection so are better runs regarding how they handle MJO mess, but not totally clear to me if that is what they are saying (you do have to wade through some other sorts of posts to get at the good model discussion). If that is the case though, I wish we got the Euro weeklies from the 12z EPS instead of 0z runs.

Not bad progression overall for 12z, considering how things have been:

 

Should also mention it was noted that the Fv3 wouldn't be replacing the GFS until maybe Feb. now because of the shutdown. 

[jaxjagman]

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS/GEFS combo shows fairly noticeable improvement.  We have seen this before as a mirage, so let's see if it holds.  The FV3 if it is extrapolated would likely have followed suit.  If one toggles the 48hr pressure change trends, the teleconnection areas(AK, Greenland, eastern NA, EPO) depict good trends.  

Take a look @jaxjagman's graphic above.  I have no idea how/if the strat splits.  But that is stratospheric warming at the highest levels of the atmosphere (10mb).  Jax, I am assuming that is today's observation?  It will be interesting to see if this impacts the troposphere.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Found this earlier today, but thought maybe people were burnt out on the strat stuff. 

Looks like this one is one of the warmest on record:

 

[jaxjagman]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 18z GFS/GEFS combo shows fairly noticeable improvement.  We have seen this before as a mirage, so let's see if it holds.  The FV3 if it is extrapolated would likely have followed suit.  If one toggles the 48hr pressure change trends, the teleconnection areas(AK, Greenland, eastern NA, EPO) depict good trends.  

Take a look @jaxjagman's graphic above.  I have no idea how/if the strat splits.  But that is stratospheric warming at the highest levels of the atmosphere (10mb).  Jax, I am assuming that is today's observation?  It will be interesting to see if this impacts the troposphere.  

Yes sir,some significant warming  shown by today's JMA

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, jaxjagman said:

Yes sir,some significant warming  shown by today's JMA

Good catch.  That might explain, in part, some of the trends on the 12z and now 18z modeling.  That was a pretty significant change....I mean it may be a blip which I realize.  JB just posted that the teleconnection indices moved fairly significantly as well.  

[jaxjagman]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Found this earlier today, but thought maybe people were burnt out on the strat stuff. 

Looks like this one is one of the warmest on record:

 

Thanks for this.I was wondering how strong that was compared to recent years.It was even stronger than last year

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Found this earlier today, but thought maybe people were burnt out on the strat stuff. 

Looks like this one is one of the warmest on record:

 

Strat is the only game in town right now.  LOL.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, jaxjagman said:

It was even stronger than last year

Look at the graphic I put in Banter. It looks substantially stouter than last year's at several levels.

 

[jaxjagman]

6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Found this earlier today, but thought maybe people were burnt out on the strat stuff. 

Looks like this one is one of the warmest on record:

 

Never get burned out on Strat stuff,it's all related

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here is the strat graphic: 

Still not sure why they are using the Julian calendar...

[jaxjagman]

11 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Here is the strat graphic: 

Still not sure why they are using the Julian calendar...

That's some significant warming comparing to the split last year

[Holston_River_Rambler]

What's even crazier is that it wants to do it again in 10 days:

 

[Carvers Gap]

Ah, yeah.  I see now.  I deleted that other post.  Definitely strong warming compared to last year, especially at the upper levels of the stratosphere.  I think we want to see it work its way down to the lower levels, which it may very well do.  

And yes, Butler was talking w someone on Twitter about how this might be two events that will actually count as one.   The stratosphere is going to get hammered for a few weeks it appears.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

Here is a very good article on whether this stratospheric split will impact the troposphere and couple with it(dSSW) or not couple with it which would impact the troposphere less(nSSW).  This might also explain why several models went cold as they picked up on the displacement/split, and the subsequently backed-off as the split was questionable in the type(paraphrasing the author, Simon Lee).  I noticed that Lee tweeted this AM that this will indeed likely be a split and not just a displacement.  Makes me wonder if this is now likely to couple w the troposphere.  I think he also noted on Twitter that the configuration will be the opposite of the hemispheric configuration of last February regarding daughter vortices - but that could have been someone else that stated that.

Article:  https://simonleewx.com/2018/12/27/not-all-ssws-were-created-equal/

Tweet:

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

More stratospheric fun: here is a late breaking thread with almost everyone I've seen involved in the strat. discussion and may start to explain some of the trouble models have been having with this seemingly rare "wave 3" event. 

 

[weathertree4u]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

More stratospheric fun: here is a late breaking thread with almost everyone I've seen involved in the strat. discussion and may start to explain some of the trouble models have been having with this seemingly rare "wave 3" event. 

 

So, are we talking eventual cold or eventual 1985 vodka cold?

[John1122]

This is the November/December 84 into early 85 major SSW that dislodged the PV and wiped out a +AO/+NAO pattern that was blisteringly warm the last 3 weeks of December. The effects were felt pretty quickly, within 10-14 days, with the peak of the effects from January 15th-25th roughly. It was a two wave event as well, the PV was perturbed with the first wave and split in the second. At the time these were record warm temps into January at 10mb.

 

[beavis1729]

Nice discussion in here, all.

Ironically, I just mentioned January 1985 in the Lakes/OV banter thread.

Obviously grasping at straws...but does anyone think that an outcome similar to 1984-85 is remotely possible?

That winter had an unacceptably warm December in the Midwest, but then things snapped around the new year. 

As an example: Chicago (ORD) only had 3.4" of snow for the season through December 30th, with a max seasonal snow depth of 1"...along with a ridiculous high/low temp of 69F/49F on 12/28/1984.  Then, from December 31st through February 14th, about 35" of snow fell...and the temp dropped to -27F on 1/20/1985...still the all-time record low at ORD.  From February 1st-9th, each day had a low temp of 3F or colder.  This 45-day period was about 8 degrees below normal, with snow cover the entire time...maxing at 15" depth on February 14th.  Then, winter ended abruptly after that.

Interesting...

[John1122]

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Nice discussion in here, all.

Ironically, I just mentioned January 1985 in the Lakes/OV banter thread.

Obviously grasping at straws...but does anyone think that an outcome similar to 1984-85 is remotely possible?

That winter had an unacceptably warm December in the Midwest, but then things snapped around the new year. 

As an example: Chicago (ORD) only had 3.4" of snow for the season through December 30th, with a max seasonal snow depth of 1"...along with a ridiculous high/low temp of 69F/49F on 12/28/1984.  Then, from December 31st through February 14th, about 35" of snow fell...and the temp dropped to -27F on 1/20/1985...still the all-time record low at ORD.  From February 1st-9th, each day had a low temp of 3F or colder.  This 45-day period was about 8 degrees below normal, with snow cover the entire time...maxing at 15" depth on February 14th.  Then, winter ended abruptly after that.

Interesting...

 

Last year after the split things got frigid here for a month. If we had gotten the split in December or January with any snowcover below 0 would have been easily on the table. As it was, snow was falling here in late March and even April.

 

1985 is rare territory. I was at -28 degrees on the 21st. The other coldest day of my life was -20 on February 4th 1996. -10 isn't uncommon here but once you start looking at -20 type temps they aren't terribly common at all. Probably an every 50 years type event.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

8 hours ago, weathertree4u said:

9 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

So, are we talking eventual cold or eventual 1985 vodka cold?

I really don't know. The next 15 days looks rough, so might as well look at the strat. Even the Jan 3rd event that looked promising for western areas has now turned into an April like upper low with more rain. Like I said earlier yesterday I think it looks colder by 20 days, but could be wrong. The MJO has been wild and a person in the SE forum was arguing that in addition to everything else, a solar flare from a coronal hole was increasing solar winds and aiding the stall of the MJO in the bad phases.  Until we can get the MJO to phases 8-1-2 and the strat to settle down, I think it's going to be bad. We have the storm track of a Nina, with the moisture and active southern jet of a Nino, and all the arctic air in Siberia. At this point I just want to dry out for a week. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The trend is your friend?

Yeah yeah, I know it's just the GEFS and probably won't get things just right, but I don't think ensemble means are meant to be diagnostic of specifics. They're more useful for trends. And that's what we need right now. We have all the specifics rain we need in the short term. Remembered Carver's suggested 5 day averages and the 6z GEFS's trends there look nice for now. Wait you might say, what about the 0z EPS? Yeah, it looks bad. But for now, I'm going with the Mets in the NE forum's idea that it has some problem with diurnal tropical convection and is doing a bad job with the MJO so far.  We'll see if the 12z EPS looks better. Well, better is a relative term give how it's dealing with the MJO. But I do see some similarities between this and the 12z (yesterday) EPS I posted earlier in this thread. Retrograding -NAO, attempt at a -AO, and slow retraction of the Pac jet. Maybe the GEFS isn't right, but if it is doing a better job dealing with the movement of the convection that is sustaining the Pac jet, maybe it's hints are useful.