John1122 Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 3k NAM is very aggressive for wave one still per the 06z run. At 0z the area of heavy snow was over NW Tn. Will have to see if other models begin to see this level of action or if it's just the 3k towards the end of it's range being a little too aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 37 minutes ago, John1122 said: 3k NAM is very aggressive for wave one still per the 06z run. At 0z the area of heavy snow was over NW Tn. Will have to see if other models begin to see this level of action or if it's just the 3k towards the end of it's range being a little too aggressive. Things that make you go hmm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 There are times I wish they offered a "wow" reaction here. That's what I'd give to John's posts above! I woke up for a rare midnight post and saw that someone had posted the 0z UKMET in the MA forum and thought, hmmm, I bet the Euro will be nice. What an awesome run! Ratio'd map John mentioned: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6z GEFS mean on of the best I've seen: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Storm cells looked good for one overnight run. Today CAMs are lined out for Saturday. Snow this weekend looks like mainly a Kentucky story, plus the usual higher elevations. Clearing Sunday night should allow viewing the lunar eclipse. Middle of next week could be more interesting along I-40 and I-81 from northern Middle Tenn to TRI. Euro has that back piece of energy riding up the front. For CHA that set-up is a non-starter; but, it works points north and east. GFS can't decide. ECMWF might lose it a run or two. However it shows up more times than not. Little early to fish out the back piece of energy on Pacific satellite; still, those systems already include multiple chunks of energy. It could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Clearing Sunday I was thinking about starting a a thread for when we would see the sun again (or the moon for that matter) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I was thinking about starting a a thread for when we would see the sun again (or the moon for that matter) lolI think this medium/long range thread is appropriate for the sun forecast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I think this medium/long range thread is appropriate for the sun forecast We got our one week of sun and dry, now we have to pay 3-fold. It just seemed like that first system earlier in the week dropped the cloud deck and there was no recovery. Hopefully this more dynamic system this weekend and give us a clean sweep and scour out some of the low level moisture. Maybe 2 days with sun early next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Fascinating midday runs, esp the 2nd storm for middle tennessee. Looks like the fv3 wants the track further west than gfs and last nights euro, which hurts east tn but helps middle tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GEFS looks outstanding going forward. Lots of cold and some interesting looks in regards to blocking in the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, AMZ8990 said: GEFS looks outstanding going forward. Lots of cold and some interesting looks in regards to blocking in the next few weeks. I agree, the evolution at 500 is a crazy one not often seen in wintertime. I think we are about to get very busy in the tracking department the next several weeks, regardless of the system next mid-week. Speaking of the mid-week system, i do believe the chances are better than average someone in west, middle, or east TN sees accumulating snow from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, tnweathernut said: I agree, the evolution at 500 is a crazy one not often seen in wintertime. I think we are about to get very busy in the tracking department the next several weeks, regardless of the system next mid-week. Speaking of the mid-week system, i do believe the chances are better than average someone in west, middle, or east TN sees accumulating snow from it. I hope so, it would be an epic time to track stuff given what’s potentially on the table. I agree with you on the mid week system. 12zFV3 spit out huge totals statewide at 12z. CMC kept it more of a West tn to middle tn storm. I’m anxious to see how the models trend over the next 2 days. It will also be nice to see how the models did forecasting the temps for Saturday nights cool down, I think that will help is get a gauge of which model is leading the way in predicting this upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The 12z Euro seems to go negative tilt in SE TX. The trailing piece of energy consolidates and runs the apps from what it appears. I think this will be a good run for snow for middle TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Oh yeah, just saw the precip and as soon as I can get a close up gif will post. What's even crazier, is that it wasn't far from something even bigger with the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 There seems to be a low in the lakes (shocker i know). That likely messes up the whole evolution. Likely would have been much bigger without that piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looks good for some areas: Set up at H5: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Lays it down quick too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Holy crap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Ninja'd That's what I was about to say! lol It's like the Euro said: "But wait, there's more! Act now and we'll throw in the TPV and a storm!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Nashville is below zero for at least 30 hours..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Mr Bob said: Holy crap! What are the temperatures behind that?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Mr Bob said: Nashville is below zero for at least 30 hours..... 1985ish or just below? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Definitely going to be interested in the EPS....this is as extreme as I have ever seen for down here so it has to be taken with a boulder of salt....but, the pattern is set for the extremity over the next 3 weeks. Hopefully not this bad though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Yet another case today where I need a 'wow' reaction: There's one point where it is below 0 at 18z ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The full run with the second storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 I didn't think I'd see another 30 inch snow map for my area on the Euro ever, but that's the second this winter. This one looks much more realistic given the pattern and 0 temp issues. 30 inch snow map and near 20 below zero. Similar to Feb 1996 when the area got 12-20 inches of snow and it was in that temp range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 47 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Ninja'd That's what I was about to say! lol It's like the Euro said: "But wait, there's more! Act now and we'll throw in the TPV and a storm!" Wow, finally got a good look at it. Now that would be nice to see. That drop into the negatives at the peak solar hours would be something I'd always remember. It would also break the previous record for the coldest air I've experienced at -17 by a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Well, MRX appears to be all-in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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