January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

[weathertree4u]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

 

 

Appears more south than prio?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

1 minute ago, weathertree4u said:

Appears more south than prio?

I hate to say it, but honestly it looks a little worse to me overall. On the other hand, if that verbatim verified, I'd be happy. 

[The unknown]

Thanks and it does definitely look a lot worse than the previous runs.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Now, what I'm interested in is what the Euro showed at the end:

 

Thought I'd change up the maps for fun. 

Seems like an unlikely outcome to me, but intriguing possibility.

Now, in the big picture, if we are going to talk about a single OP run being good or not, 12z Euro was........unique at H5, especially in the AO, NAO domains:

 

Pretty different from 0z and will likely be just as different at 0z tomorrow. 

 

 

 

[John1122]

36 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Appears more south than prio?

It's just according to which run the past couple of days you've looked at. At one point it was showing 2-4 inches over SW Tennessee. Last night it was 2-3 inches in NWTn. So definitelya downward trend in snowfall for western areas. I'm sure 0z will have its own look too. 

[PowellVolz]

I love looking at the snow maps because it’s a simple way to follow trends but it seems more difficult now because instead of trends we get huge swings one way that turns around and goes against itself the next run or two.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

Was thinking the Euro Control looked similar something we'd been talking about. Well, the Control is mostly rain, but the system it shows at day day 10+ kind of looks like the Jan 1998 storm:

 

 

Almost 21 years to the day. 

[John1122]

Healthy mean on the EPS again. 2-6 inches across the forum area with some isolated 6-8 inch ares in the SEKY/SWVA/Mountains. Pretty good for an average of 50 members.

[Blue Ridge]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Was thinking the Euro Control looked similar something we'd been talking about. Well, the Control is mostly rain, but the system it shows at day day 10+ kind of looks like the Jan 1998 storm:

Almost 21 years to the day. 

Yes, I'll take one 1/27/98 redux, please. 

[weathertree4u]

42 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

Yes, I'll take one 1/27/98 redux, please. 

Still looking pretty cold in the long range if nothing else 

[The unknown]

Has the euro ran its 18z run

[Holston_River_Rambler]

It has

[John1122]

Gonna be bn precip (Jeff already noted this can be a good thing if we want snow) but we get this day 6-10 and 8-14. Plus I've already saw mets talking about how great weeks 3-4 look on the Weeklies this evening. 

 

[The unknown]

Did the snowfall increase any for this weekend or did it go down

[Holston_River_Rambler]

To my eye the snowfall total went down.

Please don't take this the wrong way, but I recommend just watching how things develop at this point. Could end up better, could end up worse. As others have said above these things bounce around from run to run and the sort of mesoscale dynamics that could produce snow in W TN this weekend are usually hard to predict, even 24 hours out. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Found some weeklies? action:

 

 

 

 

[The unknown]

I appreciate the advice and even we don’t luck out with this system at least the future looks promising 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

And to be fair, I am one to know. I have spent waaaayyyyyy too many hours of my life waiting for the next model run. I still do it (see below). Looks good one run, bad the next. 

Not to stir the pot, but 0z 3k NAM jumped south. This could very well jump back north at 6z, but for now:

 

For this sort of set up (correct me if I'm wrong) live radar is the best to go by as it develops. Once the energy starts to jump to the coast, it's usually game over for the comma head band.

I would say watch for trends, but don't get too hung up on precise placement. The storm is coming, wherever it all sets up, precise details to be determined. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Some decent looking T-storms in that run too. 

[Carvers Gap]

I think for the first time that I can ever remember...the Euro Weeklies were BN for every, single week.  The first 32 days feature AN precip.  I would list through d46, but looks like the algorithm is not working correctly as evidenced by the single, uniform color of mauve.  Anyway, for NE TN folks, the snow mean was 14-16".  I am not saying whether these Weeklies verify...but this evening's run probably set the benchmark for BN temps and consecutive weeks.  I will say, I was less than impressed with the teleconnection package.  The AO was negative, and the lone feature that seems to mean business.  Everything else was basically weakly in our favor.  Other than that, tough to gripe about anything on that run.  Lettuce(purposeful) hope that we are about to embark on a long stretch of winter.  I want to see this board hopping.

[Greyhound]

And to be fair, I am one to know. I have spent waaaayyyyyy too many hours of my life waiting for the next model run. I still do it (see below). Looks good one run, bad the next. 
Not to stir the pot, but 0z 3k NAM jumped south. This could very well jump back north at 6z, but for now:
 
For this sort of set up (correct me if I'm wrong) live radar is the best to go by as it develops. Once the energy starts to jump to the coast, it's usually game over for the comma head band.
I would say watch for trends, but don't get too hung up on precise placement. The storm is coming, wherever it all sets up, precise details to be determined. 
 

I know gulf storms can sometimes rob our area of anything decent and we end up with little.....could that be a possibility based on this gif you posted? I wouldn’t think so....at least not this time b/c of the strength of the system, the placement of the low, and it looks like more of a squall line instead of persistent cells firing along the coastal regions. But based on the microclimates of our area.... I never say never.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

@Greyhound I’m on the same page with never say never, but ususlly if the convection robs the moisture it is parallel to the gulf coast. If convection is perpendicular to the coast as the NAM is depicting it can act more like a conveyor belt. 

[John1122]

GFS has a similar solution next midweek to the FV3 earlier today. Stalled front with a low riding up east of the Apps, 2-5 inches basically east of the plateau, along and north of 40 that run. Also ice accumulations in the area. Overall cold but way warmer than some of the super cold runs the past few days. That's going to bounce around like all the long range operational model runs. 

[John1122]

The Euro was a monster from the Plateau east with the midweek system. The FV3 hit Plateau and west towards Nashville. The GFS/FV3/UKIE/Euro are all very similar with the mid week system developing a wave and Tennessee being in the cold air for it.

Euro was roughly 4 inches Eastern Middle. 8 inches central Plateau. 10-12 in my area into SEKY. 6-8 inches around Knoxville into NE TN/SW Va. 10+ in the mountains. 2-4 around Northern Alabama to Chattanooga, 1-2 around Nashville.

[John1122]

The Euro follows that system with a quick clipper, and then another miller A at day 9 into 10. 240 hour totals say  1-3 inches fall over west Tennessee, 3-5 over western middle Tennessee, 8-10 over northern and eastern middle Tn, and across Knoxville, the Southern Plateau and to just north of Chattanooga, 4-5 over Northern Alabama, Northeastern Ga to Chattanooga. 2-4 over Eastern Mississippi, and 2-4 into central Alabama. 14-18 over the Northern Plateau/SEKY. 10-12 over NE TN/SWVA.

I'd take that run of the Euro and probably be close to satisfied for the entire winter season.

[Reb]

Thanks John! Maps??? Sounds like a great run 

[John1122]

Also, that's the non-ratio version of the snow potential. Some of it would be higher ratio due to some very cold temps.

[John1122]

Midweek storm.

 

240 total.

[John1122]

Different view with more of our forum in it.

[John1122]

Ratio'd maps you can add 2-6 inches to those totals through 240.