January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

[weathertree4u]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

As TNWN said, look at the 18z FV3-GFS. It's colder than 12z. It has highs below 10 nearly state wide and lows in the double digits below 0.

Spoiler alert lol, was just pulling it up!

[John1122]

The ratio'd snow map for the 18z FV3 is going to be ridiculous through 240, especially for Kentucky.

[John1122]

Yep, it's crazy, still snowing heavily from Nashville east when this ends as well. After this system there's multiple clippers. One of the coldest/snowiest runs of any model I've seen in a long time.

 

 

[jaxjagman]

That model is such a tease

[John1122]

11 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

That model is such a tease

It is but it's usually pretty good at 500mb if nothing else. I see big totals out of it on Tropical all the time but this is the first time I've seen a big map on Pivotal with the ratio added onto it.

[jaxjagman]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

It is but it's usually pretty good at 500mb if nothing else. I see big totals out of it on Tropical all the time but this is the first time I've seen a big map on Pivotal with the ratio added onto it.

Oh i think its gonna get cold,not sure about the snow but with a MJO,SSWE I CAN SEE THIS

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

If we can get a snowpack, maybe we can get some diamond dust again!

I think it was 2014 or 15 we had some reports of the phenomenon in Knoxville

 

[jaxjagman]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

If we can get a snowpack, maybe we can get some diamond dust again!

I think it was 2014 or 15 we had some reports of the phenomenon in Knoxville

 

I was just fixing to post something to the align.If there is a snow pack of that extreme,there should and would be some parts of the Valley seeing all time record lows..JMHO

[John1122]

With the temps/ratios and clippers that followed on the FV3 most of the region would see 10-30+ inches of snow over that 16 day run. I'm not sure if any place has a snow map for it for the entire 384 or not.

These temps aren't unrealistic with the time of year/pattern at 500mb and snow cover. This is also at 1am/12am in our region. Temps would probably be 3-4 degrees colder by sunrise.

[jaxjagman]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

With the temps/ratios and clippers that followed on the FV3 most of the region would see 10-30+ inches of snow over that 16 day run. I'm not sure if any place has a snow map for it for the entire 384 or not.

These temps aren't unrealistic with the time of year/pattern at 500mb and snow cover. This is also at 1am/12am in our region. Temps would probably be 3-4 degrees colder.

The PV is doing it's job,just like Berlin keeps the split and the cold daughter on the North America side.It's gonna get freaking cold.The coldest daughter continues to be on our side even 10 days out.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

So thoughts on model performance? I know since we've been talking about the American suite this may seem like a poke at it. It isn't. I feel like this upcoming period is important for us, so trying to figure out which of the big 3 (GFS, Fv3, Euro) to hedge on. Ok, well, to be totally fair, the question I have, is the Fv3 doing better than the GFS? I know Jeff said it was missing data, but the NE folks (even a Met) seem to think that has been resolved. 

 

Below are the trends of the forecast for those three for the current storm, in that order:

 

 

To me, it looks like the Fv3 did better than the GFS within 5 days. It also looks like once you get within 5 days, the general idea is pretty well what we get, even if those subtle shifts (100 miles N or S) make a world of difference

Here are the official stats too: 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I may be comparing apples and oranges though. The main thing I was looking at on those maps at first was the MSLP, but it looks to me like the GFS did better than the Fv3 with the upstream cut off anticyclone at 500 mb. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Stole this from another board, but also like this trend on the EPS for more split flow and PNA:

 

Context for the graphic for full disclosure:

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1548-eastern-us-jan-2019-consolidated-disc-obs/?page=180&tab=comments#comment-119031 

 

 

[John1122]

23 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

The PV is doing it's job,just like Berlin keeps the split and the cold daughter on the North America side.It's gonna get freaking cold.The coldest daughter continues to be on our side even 10 days out.

 

The FV3 got even colder towards the end of it's run. Over that deep snow pack and those shots of cold from clippers, we approach 1985 cold. Once again, this would be 1 am. Temps would probably be 3-5 degrees colder by sunrise. A few years ago models started advertising this crazy cold in February in the long range and I couldn't believe it. But then it actually happened. This type of cold also fits into the pattern when SSWE happen in late December. 

Extremely dry atmosphere by this time. The 700mb DP is off the charts, way below -40. 

[John1122]

To add to the post above, this would be 12/1pm the day before those lows. Widespread subzero temps in the early afternoon. These temp maps may not and are probably not quite going to happen to this extreme but show the potential of the pattern depicted, to deliver cold into the lower 48.

[jaxjagman]

10 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Stole this from another board, but also like this trend on the EPS for more split flow and PNA:

 

Context for the graphic for full disclosure:

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1548-eastern-us-jan-2019-consolidated-disc-obs/?page=180&tab=comments#comment-119031 

 

 

Not sure how you can tell tho if this is a split flow without looking at NA,this could just as well be a phase?

[jaxjagman]

3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Not sure how you can tell tho if this is a split flow without looking at NA,this could just as well be a phase?

Just saying

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

That's fair enough. 

I was putting the horse before the cart. 

 

 

I was going by the whole post I linked and should have been more thorough in my explanation and post, but it's Sat. night and a good time to look for all positives, substantiated or not. 

[jaxjagman]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

That's fair enough. 

I was putting the horse before the cart. 

 

Its all good

[Holston_River_Rambler]

No. 

[jaxjagman]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

No. 

Im with you

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I'm close to throwing everything all in. Late Jan to early March. But am reminded of an Old English proverb:

"Wyrd bið ful aræd!"

Translation:

"Events go always as they must!"

This is not helpful for a definite answer, but I think they meant it that way.

 

[jaxjagman]

The MJO shows signs of maybe hovering around the COD and weakening but could come out decent into 7-8,to early to tell just yet

[John1122]

Really nice ENS mean again. Shows the models are seeing storms in the pattern with plenty of cold around to take advantage.

[Daniel Boone]

I've only recorded 2 days of below zero highs in my 40 years of observations.  Jan. 21 1985(low of -27) and Feb. 5 1996(low of -21) Each with -4 degrees. One zero high ; Christmas 1983.

[jaxjagman]

The coldest daughter of the PV split continues to being shown into NA tonight,there doesn't look to be any sign of it moving

[jaxjagman]

Really wouldn't pay attention in the long range,believe someone in the Valley is going to get pounded.My concern tho is how cold it's going to get that could potentially suppress systems.We'll  see how it plays out.I still think the system to watch is around the 25-26th.But anyways the models are gonna have a rough time with the SSWE,just like the GFS this afternoon showed an Omega building into the AK region tonight shows an Omega trying to build into Greenland,Your gonna see many changes upcoming..JMHO

 

[John1122]

The FV3 may have actually gotten colder as hard as that is to believe. If it's off by 15 degrees it'd still be below 0 in our region. 

[weathertree4u]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

The FV3 may have actually gotten colder as hard as that is to believe. If it's off by 15 degrees it'd still be below 0 in our region. 

Yea, hard to believe that it has. What is the accuracy of the model at this range?

[Wurbus]

Wish we could see clown snow maps past 240, but the 12z FV3 brings the goods with 3 systems from the 23rd to the 29th and very cold air.