tnweathernut Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 45 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: Safe to say, if a few inches of snow can be laid down, there will not be much if any opportunity for moderation of any cold air dropping down from Canada! Good post by Carvers. Not much to add to that. Impressive cold now being shown. If we can keep the southern jet active you have to think we time one up pretty soon. SOI is back negative his am (-5.81), which is a good thing. Hope we can keep it mostly negative for the better part of the next 45 days. With all the snow being laid down just north of us. It would certainly aid the cold being colder than it would have otherwise been. Good times likely incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I can't remember the last time vodka cold produced more than 1-2 inches from clippers etc. It is pretty awesome how snow can hang around after that kind of cold but I'd rather see just slightly below normal for what is basically the coldest time of the year anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Starting to think Carver's is going to get his dream scenario at some point in the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I'll throw some reasoning in there too: Hopefully, by now, we've all seen the Fv3 and GFS 12z outputs beyond day 10. If you haven't check em out. I know the GFS/ Fv3 are normally problematic and the Fv3 at least isn't getting all the data it should because of the shutdown, but let's be honest, as poorly as they sometimes do against the Euro OP, they often do an ok job figuring out when a pattern is conducive for a storm, especially a big storm. Heck, they haven't been that far off on the big picture as it stands. GEFS help there too. I'll drop a Typhoon Tip quote from the NE forum and offer a translation: "But just about every member of the GEFs carries either an event or a trough flex ... indicative of favorability in the overall numerical guidance coverage. Usually important eras show up at extended leads because their presence ...however emergent, are either already detectable ...or the domain in question is exceptionally prone to something evolving given time - either way... The "already detectable" variety is usually < D10 however.." Possible translation: big storms show up at long leads on ops and even ensembles run off a poor model because many parts of the atmosphere/ pattern are already conducive, but we should be careful since this is beyond 10 days. Most numerical guidance, as I see it, has been pretty solid on some sort of a Miller B, inland cutter/ runner developing on an arctic boundary dropping in next weekend, now inside 10 days, Jeff's I-70 special. Could that change? Yeah, but I'm betting no. How far does the boundary get as it initially moves in? It's been so long that I can't remember, but don't these suckers usually have trouble making it over the plateau? I-70 can have that one if they want it. I'm hunting what comes after. Maybe the PLINKO analogy is useful here too. Normally there are a wide range of options on the PLINKO board, but the more options we eliminate at closer leads (cold looks to be coming south, storm riding the boundary on all guidance) the less choices the PLINKO chip has at the start and the less likely some outcomes will be down the road and the more likely others will be. In fact, I would like it if the first wave would amplify enough to really pull the arctic boundary south. What does it encounter further south? The relatively warm waters of the Gulf and Atlantic. Fuel. Pull the boundary through. Let the I-70 special turn into a 50/50. Roll the (hopefully loaded) dice. Euro H5 relative vorticity from 0z: Notice how much faster the second shortwave is moving down the front range, almost as if it were about to catch the energy in the SE, slowing as it runs into an Atlantic ridge and trying to turn up the coast. I think if the 0z Euro were to run a little further out, it might have shown a similar solution to the 12z GFS, but getting there from a different approach. Now watch 12z Euro today shatter all this, lol. TBH I'm struggling to say what I'm thinking. Maybe all just wishful thinking. It almost seems like it's better to track highs and arctic air at this point. The storms we have had no shortage of. Arctic air and nicely placed highs, not so much other than Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 55 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Starting to think Carver's is going to get his dream scenario at some point in the next two weeks. Modeling is impressive. The cold coming is the real deal. Will be interesting to see what happens next weekend. The system occurring now was shown to snow on TN just a few days ago, then modeling moved to KY. It’s currently snowing all the way to Chicago.....lol. I think the modeling will have a chance to adjust the opposite direction next weekend. This type of cold USUALLY presses in faster than modeled. I could certainly envision the rain to ice/snow scenario being advertised on some current modeling for next weekend. What follows after next weekend would also have enough cold to provide opportunities somewhere in our forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I think we just got Euro'd: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Sure did, keeps up the cold press further south thing going and the rain to snow scenario on a more widespread basis. More changes coming, but it’s a pretty good look on modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I think we just got Euro'd: Hard to tell where the fz heights fall for frozen.My 3hr in increments stop after 7 days,this is for BNA THU 03Z 17-JAN 4.7 0.6 133 4789 25002 0.00 THU 06Z 17-JAN 4.8 0.8 133 5044 16002 0.00 THU 09Z 17-JAN 5.1 1.3 133 5877 16002 0.00 THU 12Z 17-JAN 5.0 1.1 133 8077 17003 0.00 THU 15Z 17-JAN 8.0 1.7 133 8528 17003 0.00 THU 18Z 17-JAN 12.2 3.1 134 8597 17004 0.00 THU 21Z 17-JAN 12.4 4.9 134 7722 17007 0.00 FRI 00Z 18-JAN 10.7 5.1 134 7519 18007 0.01 FRI 03Z 18-JAN 9.8 5.3 134 8003 18009 0.16 FRI 06Z 18-JAN 10.1 5.8 134 7675 19009 0.23 FRI 09Z 18-JAN 10.5 6.3 135 7225 20008 0.07 FRI 12Z 18-JAN 10.6 6.7 135 7751 20007 0.09 FRI 18Z 18-JAN 12.9 6.7 135 7741 22006 0.10 SAT 00Z 19-JAN 10.9 7.0 135 7598 35004 0.16 SAT 06Z 19-JAN 6.5 6.4 133 7396 36007 0.17 SAT 12Z 19-JAN 3.4 4.5 132 7202 02008 0.07 SAT 18Z 19-JAN 1.8 1.8 130 6010 03011 0.06 SUN 00Z 20-JAN -1.6 -1.9 128 0 02012 0.13 SUN 06Z 20-JAN -5.2 -5.6 126 0 36012 0.21 SUN 12Z 20-JAN -9.0 -8.0 124 0 00012 0.00 SUN 18Z 20-JAN -5.3 -6.7 125 0 01010 0.00 MON 00Z 21-JAN -6.8 -5.8 126 0 00005 0.00 MON 06Z 21-JAN -12.5 -4.4 126 0 03006 0.00 MON 12Z 21-JAN -10.0 -2.0 128 0 08004 0.00 MON 18Z 21-JAN 0.1 -1.3 129 50 16003 0.00 TUE 00Z 22-JAN -3.1 1.1 131 6634 17006 0.00 TUE 06Z 22-JAN -2.8 1.3 130 5628 18007 0.00 TUE 12Z 22-JAN -2.3 -1.0 129 0 18010 0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Would that be about 3 inches for BNA at 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: Would that be about 3 inches for BNA at 10:1? Should be,i'm wondering why the map you posted shows rain on the backside?That should be fz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Euro Kuchera output for giggles: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: 5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Should be,i'm wondering why the map you posted shows rain on the backside?That should be fz No clue, but I have noticed the weathermodels Euro precip. maps like to do that sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Nice ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 12Z JAN12 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 12-JAN 3.3 1.9 1026 67 76 0.00 570 549 SAT 18Z 12-JAN 6.7 3.3 1024 67 43 0.01 568 548 SUN 00Z 13-JAN 4.0 4.3 1022 98 97 0.16 566 548 SUN 06Z 13-JAN 4.1 6.4 1018 99 99 0.26 565 550 SUN 12Z 13-JAN 4.7 3.7 1018 96 55 0.11 561 547 SUN 18Z 13-JAN 7.5 2.6 1018 92 72 0.04 560 545 MON 00Z 14-JAN 7.3 1.3 1020 99 74 0.03 560 544 MON 06Z 14-JAN 4.2 -0.3 1023 98 47 0.05 561 542 MON 12Z 14-JAN 2.8 -2.2 1025 95 45 0.01 560 540 MON 18Z 14-JAN 2.9 -3.1 1026 87 31 0.02 560 540 TUE 00Z 15-JAN 2.1 -3.5 1026 89 62 0.02 558 537 TUE 06Z 15-JAN 1.3 -5.6 1026 89 69 0.01 556 535 TUE 12Z 15-JAN 0.2 -3.9 1026 85 21 0.00 558 537 TUE 18Z 15-JAN 3.2 -0.5 1026 69 7 0.00 560 540 WED 00Z 16-JAN 0.2 0.6 1024 85 6 0.00 561 542 WED 06Z 16-JAN -0.8 0.9 1024 86 5 0.00 562 543 WED 12Z 16-JAN -2.0 -0.2 1025 90 6 0.00 563 543 WED 18Z 16-JAN 7.9 0.5 1023 59 18 0.00 564 545 THU 00Z 17-JAN 3.3 0.4 1022 82 6 0.00 564 546 THU 06Z 17-JAN 4.0 -0.6 1023 84 24 0.00 564 545 THU 12Z 17-JAN 3.4 0.1 1023 90 19 0.00 564 545 THU 18Z 17-JAN 10.2 1.2 1022 67 34 0.00 565 548 FRI 00Z 18-JAN 7.6 3.2 1020 82 61 0.00 565 549 FRI 06Z 18-JAN 7.0 4.8 1017 94 96 0.09 563 549 FRI 12Z 18-JAN 8.0 5.5 1014 94 75 0.15 560 549 FRI 18Z 18-JAN 12.3 6.7 1012 84 68 0.03 560 550 SAT 00Z 19-JAN 11.0 6.9 1010 93 81 0.04 560 552 SAT 06Z 19-JAN 10.2 7.5 1010 98 93 0.04 559 551 SAT 12Z 19-JAN 8.5 6.8 1010 98 84 0.19 558 550 SAT 18Z 19-JAN 5.8 6.1 1011 98 98 0.17 557 549 SUN 00Z 20-JAN 0.8 2.1 1011 99 99 0.30 554 545 SUN 06Z 20-JAN -4.3 -7.3 1013 86 100 0.56 546 536 SUN 12Z 20-JAN -8.1 -10.2 1022 73 27 0.35 545 528 SUN 18Z 20-JAN -7.1 -13.7 1028 55 4 0.00 547 525 MON 00Z 21-JAN -10.9 -12.7 1033 69 14 0.00 550 525 MON 06Z 21-JAN -15.4 -5.6 1036 75 17 0.00 555 528 MON 12Z 21-JAN -15.4 -3.5 1036 77 12 0.00 564 536 MON 18Z 21-JAN -3.7 -2.1 1035 57 4 0.00 570 542 TUE 00Z 22-JAN -5.7 -0.8 1034 70 2 0.00 572 546 TUE 06Z 22-JAN -8.7 0.6 1033 72 3 0.00 572 546 TUE 12Z 22-JAN -9.1 -0.7 1034 73 6 0.00 569 542 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 12Z JAN12 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 12-JAN 4.4 3.7 1025 51 66 0.00 571 551 SAT 18Z 12-JAN 5.8 3.7 1024 60 25 0.01 568 549 SUN 00Z 13-JAN 4.0 5.6 1022 99 98 0.31 567 549 SUN 06Z 13-JAN 4.8 5.8 1019 100 71 0.36 565 550 SUN 12Z 13-JAN 5.1 3.9 1018 99 27 0.06 563 548 SUN 18Z 13-JAN 9.3 3.0 1019 90 27 0.02 563 547 MON 00Z 14-JAN 7.5 0.8 1021 94 32 0.02 564 546 MON 06Z 14-JAN 4.2 -0.4 1024 93 23 0.00 564 545 MON 12Z 14-JAN 3.3 -1.8 1026 89 39 0.00 563 542 MON 18Z 14-JAN 4.9 -2.1 1026 77 14 0.00 563 542 TUE 00Z 15-JAN 4.0 -3.3 1026 77 17 0.00 561 540 TUE 06Z 15-JAN 2.2 -2.2 1026 78 40 0.00 558 537 TUE 12Z 15-JAN 0.7 -1.1 1026 79 41 0.00 560 539 TUE 18Z 15-JAN 5.2 0.9 1026 61 18 0.00 562 542 WED 00Z 16-JAN 2.3 2.4 1024 80 6 0.00 562 543 WED 06Z 16-JAN -0.8 2.2 1025 91 5 0.00 564 545 WED 12Z 16-JAN -1.8 1.3 1025 94 15 0.00 565 545 WED 18Z 16-JAN 9.6 2.2 1024 55 9 0.00 566 547 THU 00Z 17-JAN 6.0 2.4 1022 76 34 0.00 567 548 THU 06Z 17-JAN 3.5 1.4 1023 89 41 0.00 566 547 THU 12Z 17-JAN 3.7 1.6 1023 90 33 0.00 566 548 THU 18Z 17-JAN 12.1 2.0 1022 64 38 0.00 568 550 FRI 00Z 18-JAN 9.4 4.5 1019 80 68 0.00 567 551 FRI 06Z 18-JAN 8.1 4.9 1018 99 96 0.19 564 550 FRI 12Z 18-JAN 8.5 6.5 1015 99 59 0.13 563 551 FRI 18Z 18-JAN 11.8 7.2 1012 92 50 0.05 562 552 SAT 00Z 19-JAN 12.0 7.8 1010 98 59 0.02 562 554 SAT 06Z 19-JAN 11.3 8.2 1010 99 68 0.05 561 553 SAT 12Z 19-JAN 11.5 7.6 1009 99 97 0.17 560 552 SAT 18Z 19-JAN 9.8 7.4 1009 100 96 0.26 558 551 SUN 00Z 20-JAN 3.3 5.4 1007 99 99 0.42 555 549 SUN 06Z 20-JAN -2.7 -3.9 1011 86 100 0.35 546 538 SUN 12Z 20-JAN -5.2 -6.3 1020 68 33 0.22 546 531 SUN 18Z 20-JAN -3.8 -7.0 1026 48 4 0.00 550 529 MON 00Z 21-JAN -6.1 -5.6 1031 60 14 0.00 552 528 MON 06Z 21-JAN -9.6 -3.3 1035 65 11 0.00 557 531 MON 12Z 21-JAN -11.9 -1.9 1036 71 7 0.00 566 538 MON 18Z 21-JAN -0.6 -1.2 1035 40 4 0.00 571 544 TUE 00Z 22-JAN -3.4 0.3 1033 60 3 0.00 574 547 TUE 06Z 22-JAN -4.4 1.7 1034 62 3 0.00 573 546 TUE 12Z 22-JAN -5.9 -1.1 1035 56 5 0.00 569 542 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 12Z JAN12 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 12-JAN 1.7 -0.6 1028 73 87 0.00 569 547 SAT 18Z 12-JAN 5.9 1.9 1026 42 44 0.01 568 547 SUN 00Z 13-JAN 2.3 3.5 1025 92 90 0.06 566 546 SUN 06Z 13-JAN 2.6 5.2 1021 99 68 0.23 564 547 SUN 12Z 13-JAN 3.6 3.0 1019 95 56 0.30 561 545 SUN 18Z 13-JAN 7.7 2.3 1017 82 75 0.01 559 544 MON 00Z 14-JAN 5.5 0.9 1020 100 94 0.11 558 542 MON 06Z 14-JAN 5.1 0.1 1021 99 91 0.04 559 542 MON 12Z 14-JAN 1.8 -2.0 1024 100 89 0.05 558 539 MON 18Z 14-JAN 2.2 -3.3 1025 92 63 0.03 558 538 TUE 00Z 15-JAN 1.1 -4.0 1025 97 89 0.03 556 536 TUE 06Z 15-JAN 0.3 -6.2 1025 96 83 0.03 554 534 TUE 12Z 15-JAN -1.0 -6.9 1026 89 19 0.00 556 535 TUE 18Z 15-JAN 2.3 -3.9 1025 59 10 0.00 558 538 WED 00Z 16-JAN -0.7 -2.3 1024 78 8 0.00 560 540 WED 06Z 16-JAN -2.6 -0.4 1024 88 5 0.00 560 541 WED 12Z 16-JAN -3.4 -0.7 1025 90 2 0.00 562 542 WED 18Z 16-JAN 6.3 -0.9 1023 59 25 0.00 562 543 THU 00Z 17-JAN 2.8 -0.5 1022 81 26 0.00 562 544 THU 06Z 17-JAN 2.0 -1.9 1024 91 8 0.00 562 543 THU 12Z 17-JAN 0.9 -1.9 1024 94 11 0.00 562 543 THU 18Z 17-JAN 7.7 0.4 1022 70 30 0.00 563 545 FRI 00Z 18-JAN 5.9 1.4 1021 83 38 0.00 564 546 FRI 06Z 18-JAN 5.4 2.9 1018 82 75 0.01 562 547 FRI 12Z 18-JAN 5.4 3.7 1014 95 100 0.17 559 547 FRI 18Z 18-JAN 9.4 4.9 1012 92 80 0.04 559 549 SAT 00Z 19-JAN 7.5 6.0 1010 99 93 0.06 559 550 SAT 06Z 19-JAN 7.4 6.2 1011 99 91 0.11 558 550 SAT 12Z 19-JAN 5.9 5.9 1011 98 98 0.23 557 548 SAT 18Z 19-JAN 4.8 5.8 1011 94 98 0.12 557 547 SUN 00Z 20-JAN -0.8 2.0 1012 98 96 0.34 554 544 SUN 06Z 20-JAN -6.2 -4.3 1012 83 96 0.70 548 538 SUN 12Z 20-JAN -10.5 -12.1 1023 73 43 0.18 544 526 SUN 18Z 20-JAN -9.2 -17.7 1028 50 2 0.00 545 523 MON 00Z 21-JAN -14.0 -16.8 1033 71 8 0.00 547 522 MON 06Z 21-JAN -20.7 -8.1 1037 82 18 0.00 552 524 MON 12Z 21-JAN -20.5 -5.6 1038 80 27 0.00 561 532 MON 18Z 21-JAN -2.9 -3.8 1034 44 7 0.00 567 540 TUE 00Z 22-JAN -6.1 -2.3 1033 67 2 0.00 571 544 TUE 06Z 22-JAN -12.9 -0.7 1034 76 2 0.00 571 545 TUE 12Z 22-JAN -15.2 -0.3 1034 72 5 0.00 569 542 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 12Z JAN12 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 12-JAN 6.0 2.7 1018 63 51 0.00 565 550 SAT 18Z 12-JAN 7.7 5.5 1015 94 64 0.41 561 549 SUN 00Z 13-JAN 9.6 4.6 1014 96 59 0.07 560 549 SUN 06Z 13-JAN 8.5 2.8 1016 98 33 0.03 561 548 SUN 12Z 13-JAN 4.5 -0.2 1021 91 21 0.00 563 546 SUN 18Z 13-JAN 5.2 0.2 1025 79 15 0.00 565 545 MON 00Z 14-JAN 4.9 -2.8 1027 75 13 0.00 566 544 MON 06Z 14-JAN 3.2 -2.5 1029 77 14 0.00 566 543 MON 12Z 14-JAN 0.6 -3.2 1029 87 19 0.00 566 542 MON 18Z 14-JAN 5.3 -3.0 1030 71 23 0.00 566 542 TUE 00Z 15-JAN 4.2 0.3 1028 76 42 0.00 564 541 TUE 06Z 15-JAN 2.3 1.6 1028 85 40 0.00 563 540 TUE 12Z 15-JAN -1.2 1.5 1028 94 36 0.00 564 542 TUE 18Z 15-JAN 7.4 2.5 1027 65 32 0.00 566 544 WED 00Z 16-JAN 4.0 3.2 1024 86 12 0.00 567 548 WED 06Z 16-JAN 3.1 3.7 1024 90 8 0.00 568 549 WED 12Z 16-JAN 2.4 3.6 1023 93 53 0.00 568 549 WED 18Z 16-JAN 11.8 3.1 1023 66 38 0.00 569 550 THU 00Z 17-JAN 7.9 3.8 1021 87 47 0.00 569 551 THU 06Z 17-JAN 7.9 3.0 1022 89 55 0.00 569 551 THU 12Z 17-JAN 8.6 4.7 1020 93 49 0.00 568 552 THU 18Z 17-JAN 14.0 7.0 1018 82 50 0.00 569 553 FRI 00Z 18-JAN 12.2 7.4 1015 95 48 0.05 565 553 FRI 06Z 18-JAN 12.1 7.4 1013 97 66 0.12 563 552 FRI 12Z 18-JAN 12.7 8.1 1010 99 57 0.02 562 554 FRI 18Z 18-JAN 15.2 8.4 1009 91 43 0.09 562 554 SAT 00Z 19-JAN 10.2 6.8 1010 94 38 0.05 560 552 SAT 06Z 19-JAN 6.3 6.1 1011 90 71 0.03 558 549 SAT 12Z 19-JAN 3.6 6.5 1011 88 82 0.02 555 546 SAT 18Z 19-JAN 1.9 5.2 1010 91 85 0.13 552 544 SUN 00Z 20-JAN -2.1 -5.6 1016 84 88 0.45 547 535 SUN 06Z 20-JAN -4.8 -5.2 1023 70 60 0.23 549 531 SUN 12Z 20-JAN -8.5 -4.2 1030 76 11 0.00 551 528 SUN 18Z 20-JAN -4.6 -3.6 1034 56 9 0.00 554 528 MON 00Z 21-JAN -7.1 -2.9 1035 73 24 0.00 558 531 MON 06Z 21-JAN -12.3 -2.2 1036 69 7 0.00 566 538 MON 12Z 21-JAN -16.4 0.0 1035 69 3 0.00 571 545 MON 18Z 21-JAN -1.2 0.9 1033 47 2 0.00 573 548 TUE 00Z 22-JAN -2.7 2.1 1028 63 1 0.00 571 549 TUE 06Z 22-JAN -0.4 2.3 1029 72 7 0.00 568 545 TUE 12Z 22-JAN -1.2 -2.6 1028 86 14 0.00 562 540 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 If i missed someone give me your station and i will post if you want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just noticed the Euro got real cold in the Western Valley ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 12Z JAN12 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 12Z 12-JAN 42.8 31.1 14007 0.00 0.00 100 SAT 18Z 12-JAN 45.8 42.6 45.9 44.2 15013 0.41 0.00 100 SUN 00Z 13-JAN 50.2 45.9 49.2 48.2 16004 0.07 0.00 94 SUN 06Z 13-JAN 49.5 46.5 47.3 46.6 30010 0.03 0.00 100 SUN 12Z 13-JAN 47.3 40.1 40.1 37.7 30009 0.00 0.00 100 SUN 18Z 13-JAN 41.4 39.1 41.4 35.5 31009 0.00 0.00 100 MON 00Z 14-JAN 41.8 40.9 40.9 33.5 33007 0.00 0.00 100 MON 06Z 14-JAN 40.9 37.9 37.8 31.1 35006 0.00 0.00 87 MON 12Z 14-JAN 37.8 33.1 33.1 29.8 35005 0.00 0.00 64 MON 18Z 14-JAN 41.4 33.0 41.6 32.8 34005 0.00 0.00 97 TUE 00Z 15-JAN 43.0 39.7 39.6 32.5 34004 0.00 0.00 73 TUE 06Z 15-JAN 39.6 36.1 36.1 32.1 07002 0.00 0.00 46 TUE 12Z 15-JAN 36.2 29.7 29.9 28.4 13003 0.00 0.00 8 TUE 18Z 15-JAN 45.2 29.1 45.4 34.1 24001 0.00 0.00 9 WED 00Z 16-JAN 48.4 39.4 39.2 35.3 20004 0.00 0.00 36 WED 06Z 16-JAN 39.9 37.6 37.6 35.0 20005 0.00 0.00 0 WED 12Z 16-JAN 37.6 36.4 36.4 34.6 21005 0.00 0.00 0 WED 18Z 16-JAN 53.0 36.1 53.3 42.4 23005 0.00 0.00 93 THU 00Z 17-JAN 56.1 46.5 46.3 42.5 18005 0.00 0.00 23 THU 06Z 17-JAN 46.5 44.9 46.1 43.2 17004 0.00 0.00 92 THU 12Z 17-JAN 48.7 46.2 47.5 45.6 17006 0.00 0.00 92 THU 18Z 17-JAN 57.9 47.5 57.2 51.8 19010 0.00 0.00 99 FRI 00Z 18-JAN 57.7 54.0 54.0 52.7 18009 0.05 0.00 100 FRI 06Z 18-JAN 53.9 52.8 53.9 53.1 20007 0.12 0.00 100 FRI 12Z 18-JAN 55.4 53.9 54.9 54.5 19005 0.02 0.00 100 FRI 18Z 18-JAN 59.3 54.7 59.4 56.8 24006 0.09 0.00 99 SAT 00Z 19-JAN 61.9 50.7 50.3 48.7 01009 0.05 0.00 100 SAT 06Z 19-JAN 50.3 43.5 43.4 40.7 02009 0.03 0.00 100 SAT 12Z 19-JAN 43.4 38.7 38.5 35.3 03012 0.02 0.00 100 SAT 18Z 19-JAN 38.5 35.5 35.4 33.0 03015 0.13 0.00 100 SUN 00Z 20-JAN 35.4 28.4 28.3 24.2 01016 0.45 0.22 93 SUN 06Z 20-JAN 28.3 23.5 23.3 15.0 00016 0.23 0.23 100 SUN 12Z 20-JAN 23.4 16.7 16.6 10.3 00013 0.00 0.00 4 SUN 18Z 20-JAN 23.5 16.1 23.7 10.2 00009 0.00 0.00 1 MON 00Z 21-JAN 25.7 19.6 19.3 11.9 34005 0.00 0.00 0 MON 06Z 21-JAN 19.3 8.5 9.8 1.4 05006 0.00 0.00 0 MON 12Z 21-JAN 9.8 2.1 2.5 -5.5 12006 0.00 0.00 96 MON 18Z 21-JAN 29.3 2.3 29.9 12.0 16004 0.00 0.00 72 TUE 00Z 22-JAN 36.4 25.7 27.1 16.2 16006 0.00 0.00 92 TUE 06Z 22-JAN 31.2 27.2 31.2 23.1 17009 0.00 0.00 94 TUE 12Z 22-JAN 31.4 29.7 29.8 26.0 17008 0.00 0.00 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: 9.8 2.1 Woah, there's the arctic air I've been looking for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just pure speculation and probably more banter talk than anything.But the GFS late in the run is showing an Omega building into the GOA and AK.The only problem would be the split flow look but it would be nice to see a bowling ball to come though with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 17 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Woah, there's the arctic air I've been looking for! Yeah if the thermals are right and any snow pack on the ground seems like potential it could get sub 0,once again if it's right of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 45 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Just noticed the Euro got real cold in the Western Valley ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 12Z JAN12 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 12Z 12-JAN 42.8 31.1 14007 0.00 0.00 100 SAT 18Z 12-JAN 45.8 42.6 45.9 44.2 15013 0.41 0.00 100 SUN 00Z 13-JAN 50.2 45.9 49.2 48.2 16004 0.07 0.00 94 SUN 06Z 13-JAN 49.5 46.5 47.3 46.6 30010 0.03 0.00 100 SUN 12Z 13-JAN 47.3 40.1 40.1 37.7 30009 0.00 0.00 100 SUN 18Z 13-JAN 41.4 39.1 41.4 35.5 31009 0.00 0.00 100 MON 00Z 14-JAN 41.8 40.9 40.9 33.5 33007 0.00 0.00 100 MON 06Z 14-JAN 40.9 37.9 37.8 31.1 35006 0.00 0.00 87 MON 12Z 14-JAN 37.8 33.1 33.1 29.8 35005 0.00 0.00 64 MON 18Z 14-JAN 41.4 33.0 41.6 32.8 34005 0.00 0.00 97 TUE 00Z 15-JAN 43.0 39.7 39.6 32.5 34004 0.00 0.00 73 TUE 06Z 15-JAN 39.6 36.1 36.1 32.1 07002 0.00 0.00 46 TUE 12Z 15-JAN 36.2 29.7 29.9 28.4 13003 0.00 0.00 8 TUE 18Z 15-JAN 45.2 29.1 45.4 34.1 24001 0.00 0.00 9 WED 00Z 16-JAN 48.4 39.4 39.2 35.3 20004 0.00 0.00 36 WED 06Z 16-JAN 39.9 37.6 37.6 35.0 20005 0.00 0.00 0 WED 12Z 16-JAN 37.6 36.4 36.4 34.6 21005 0.00 0.00 0 WED 18Z 16-JAN 53.0 36.1 53.3 42.4 23005 0.00 0.00 93 THU 00Z 17-JAN 56.1 46.5 46.3 42.5 18005 0.00 0.00 23 THU 06Z 17-JAN 46.5 44.9 46.1 43.2 17004 0.00 0.00 92 THU 12Z 17-JAN 48.7 46.2 47.5 45.6 17006 0.00 0.00 92 THU 18Z 17-JAN 57.9 47.5 57.2 51.8 19010 0.00 0.00 99 FRI 00Z 18-JAN 57.7 54.0 54.0 52.7 18009 0.05 0.00 100 FRI 06Z 18-JAN 53.9 52.8 53.9 53.1 20007 0.12 0.00 100 FRI 12Z 18-JAN 55.4 53.9 54.9 54.5 19005 0.02 0.00 100 FRI 18Z 18-JAN 59.3 54.7 59.4 56.8 24006 0.09 0.00 99 SAT 00Z 19-JAN 61.9 50.7 50.3 48.7 01009 0.05 0.00 100 SAT 06Z 19-JAN 50.3 43.5 43.4 40.7 02009 0.03 0.00 100 SAT 12Z 19-JAN 43.4 38.7 38.5 35.3 03012 0.02 0.00 100 SAT 18Z 19-JAN 38.5 35.5 35.4 33.0 03015 0.13 0.00 100 SUN 00Z 20-JAN 35.4 28.4 28.3 24.2 01016 0.45 0.22 93 SUN 06Z 20-JAN 28.3 23.5 23.3 15.0 00016 0.23 0.23 100 SUN 12Z 20-JAN 23.4 16.7 16.6 10.3 00013 0.00 0.00 4 SUN 18Z 20-JAN 23.5 16.1 23.7 10.2 00009 0.00 0.00 1 MON 00Z 21-JAN 25.7 19.6 19.3 11.9 34005 0.00 0.00 0 MON 06Z 21-JAN 19.3 8.5 9.8 1.4 05006 0.00 0.00 0 MON 12Z 21-JAN 9.8 2.1 2.5 -5.5 12006 0.00 0.00 96 MON 18Z 21-JAN 29.3 2.3 29.9 12.0 16004 0.00 0.00 72 TUE 00Z 22-JAN 36.4 25.7 27.1 16.2 16006 0.00 0.00 92 TUE 06Z 22-JAN 31.2 27.2 31.2 23.1 17009 0.00 0.00 94 TUE 12Z 22-JAN 31.4 29.7 29.8 26.0 17008 0.00 0.00 95 Wow, that is some serious cold. I’ll be busy covering greens at the course in the coming week if this look continues to show! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Thanks, Jax for sharing the text stuff.... love data like that! Hope we can reel something in like what is shown on the Euro today. Would be fun to track. Maybe we already are tracking. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 hour ago, jaxjagman said: Should be,i'm wondering why the map you posted shows rain on the backside?That should be fz If you notice, models often do this, it's basically their representation of mist/high humidity that isn't even falling to the surface. Not sure why it does it but I began to notice it a while back. I saw it explained better by someone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 The best thing about seeing that on a ratio map is that it means it's darn cold when the precip is falling. Much better than worrying about 850s and 925s and surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 So, it appears that the latest GFS run is not having any of the frigid cold and storminess, hopefully just a hiccup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 30 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: So, it appears that the latest GFS run is not having any of the frigid cold and storminess, hopefully just a hiccup... Check the FV3... 2 snowstorms for you. The second is a full TN Valley system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 32 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: So, it appears that the latest GFS run is not having any of the frigid cold and storminess, hopefully just a hiccup... It's still cold and stormy, the difference in the two runs was the 18z was more suppressed with the storm at 252-264. 12z was more wound up, less suppressed and went almost due north instead of OTS once it passed beneath us. It laid down heavier snow cover and brought down the extreme sub 0 cold at 12z. Still deep troughs rolling through the east on both runs with huge blocking over Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, John1122 said: It's still cold and stormy, the difference in the two runs was the 18z was more suppressed with the storm at 252-264. 12z was more wound up, less suppressed and went almost due north instead of OTS once it passed beneath us. It laid down heavier snow cover and brought down the extreme sub 0 cold at 12z. Still deep troughs rolling through the east on both runs with huge blocking over Alaska. All right, I will trust you, and hope to see my frigid temps back over night lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, weathertree4u said: All right, I will trust you, and hope to see my frigid temps back over night lol! As TNWN said, look at the 18z FV3-GFS. It's colder than 12z. It has highs below 10 nearly state wide and lows in the double digits below 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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