January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

[John1122]

A prime pattern as we enter the heart of winter is about all you can hope for in a given year. Looks like we are going to have that for a portion or maybe even all of the January 15th-February 15th window.   Today was pretty chilly,  36 for the high, gonna be in the 10s tonight. Hopefully we can step down from here. Though normally in El Nino years we don't go full ice box with well below 0 temps, when the pattern is right, especially in the pacific, we can pile up snow while only being a little below normal. 2009-10 I had around 40 inches of snow and I don't recall getting below 0. Yet snow was on the ground for 40 days or something because it never got above 40 consistently during that time. 

[John1122]

5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Really like the PNA ridge:

 

It would be truly great to reel that look in.  -EPO, +PNA, -AO and at least not a hostile NAO that looks like it could be going towards something good. Should be a decent look for clippers and northern stream stuff too. 

[Carvers Gap]

Haven't had a chance to delve much into wx stuff this AM, but of note, the GEFS snow mean bumps up quite a bit between Jan 20-26.  Been doing that for a few runs.  Could just be a signal of cold...but something to watch.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

May be too soon, but what do y'all say about the Jan 20th time period. EPS/ GEFS/ GEPS in that order below:

 

 

The whole set up looks Miller Bish to me with A LOT of time to trend to a cutter or Miller A. Bob Chill seems to think it may trend further south so I'll keep that as hopeful. Looks to me (as Carvers typed above while I was typing this) like there will be at least two chances coming up between the 20th and end of the month. It seems that we usually get a miller B or a cutter before we get our shots, but could always be different. 

I don't think I can handle tracking it from 10 days out, but something to watch. The Jan 20th storm even has the Roger Smith full moon going for it. 

Ensembles N. American pattern still looks basically unchanged through days 10-15. If anything a little better with the big trough setting up just a hair west of us so energy could potentially dig to the Gulf before turning the corner if we get something like the day 15 500 mb ensemble mean look in reality. 

Also, here's some snow:

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

RGEM trying to bring the front end precip. back for SE KY, SW VA, and NE TN:

 

NAM showing that to a much smaller extent, but it's there nonetheless. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Yeah, it would be nice if Blunderstorm could get an inch or two after the storm that (at least for Blunderstorm) shall not be named. Hope the RGEM holds or even trends better.  I think it did well with the Dec 9-10 storm, but absolutely no proof of that, other than my memory which could be biased. 

Good luck Flash!

[nrgjeff]

It appears the long awaited and long advertised cold is trying to enter the 11-15 day forecast. ECMWF takes it west first; GFS straight in. Anybody surprised? Regardless, with the stout cold air supply in Canada I would expect a cold pattern to eventually work east. If it happens...

Lots of talk about the big storm approaching the Bering Sea. We had one 3 weeks ago. Instead of pumping up the AK ridge, the storm moved east into the GOA. This one is not forecast to do so; however, it remains a risk.

MJO is in a different phase which could help with cold, but some MJO analog years were colder in the Plains than here. Tenn Valley got a couple weeks of cold, then SER. Years 1993 1994 and 1997 were decent snow years for the Plains. Stayed could 3-4 weeks out there; only lasted two weeks here. I'm looking at temps only. Only snow data I have is memory in the Plains. What happened here? 

My concern is that like with previous storms this season, the Plains does better than the Southeast. I'm not just thinking typical climo. I'm talking storm tracks observed this season.

Concerns aside, the model data looks bullish for a few weeks of winter here in the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. CFS has been cold for a few runs. I expect the ECMWF weeklies will keep some cold weeks. Need to see the weeklies stay cold, and more week 3 cold progressing into week 2 (weeklies/ensembles).

We often talk about the cold flip around Martin Luther King Day. Cold has been delayed, but MLK Day is also about a week later than normal. Maybe the cold flip forecast will work out.

[Carvers Gap]

33 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

It appears the long awaited and long advertised cold is trying to enter the 11-15 day forecast. ECMWF takes it west first; GFS straight in. Anybody surprised? Regardless, with the stout cold air supply in Canada I would expect a cold pattern to eventually work east. If it happens...

Lots of talk about the big storm approaching the Bering Sea. We had one 3 weeks ago. Instead of pumping up the AK ridge, the storm moved east into the GOA. This one is not forecast to do so; however, it remains a risk.

MJO is in a different phase which could help with cold, but some MJO analog years were colder in the Plains than here. Tenn Valley got a couple weeks of cold, then SER. Years 1993 1994 and 1997 were decent snow years for the Plains. Stayed could 3-4 weeks out there; only lasted two weeks here. I'm looking at temps only. Only snow data I have is memory in the Plains. What happened here? 

My concern is that like with previous storms this season, the Plains does better than the Southeast. I'm not just thinking typical climo. I'm talking storm tracks observed this season.

Concerns aside, the model data looks bullish for a few weeks of winter here in the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. CFS has been cold for a few runs. I expect the ECMWF weeklies will keep some cold weeks. Need to see the weeklies stay cold, and more week 3 cold progressing into week 2 (weeklies/ensembles).

We often talk about the cold flip around Martin Luther King Day. Cold has been delayed, but MLK Day is also about a week later than normal. Maybe the cold flip forecast will work out.

All three of those winters I spent in Knoxville, but had family in TRI....

93 - Ho hum until well...the blizzard.

94 - John can comment here.  Knoxville got less snow than the Plateau, but it was very cold that winter.  I didn't remember it being that cold until John reminded me.  I think we had ice followed by snow for one storm, and it remained on the ground for some time.  I attended UT and lived on Papermill.  Was a major headache getting onto campus as the interstate was a mess.  (I took one meteorology class will at UT...was awesome)

97 - No memory.  Likely was a dud.  I could be wrong. The 90s winters in Knoxville were pretty bad.  That decade of winters, excluding 95-96/93 blizzard/93-94, was not great in the Central Valley.  Even TRI outside of one or two other storms(tnweathernut saw a big JC storm during the late 90s) did not have consistent snows.  09-10 and 14-15 were the best winters since 95-96.  

The TRI winters of the 90s are somewhat of an anomaly at least during my lifetime.  They are unlike any decade that I remember.  So, it is tough for me to compare winters to them, because they are very far outside of the norm.  94/95 and 95/96 were decent winters, but there are some near goose eggs in that decade.  TRI's winters have improved(if one likes snow) in terms of snow during the last two decades.   We have had many more smaller snows and some decent medium snows...but lack the big snows of the 80s.  Overall, just more consistent snow pattern with no boomers. I am not sure I can say that about Knoxville's.  My opinion of Knoxville snow is skewed, because I grew up there in the 1970s(snowed like crazy), and lived and worked there during the 90s(some really lousy winters in that decade)...two totally different decades of winter wx.  

Thanks for the extended write-up.  Interesting about the big storm in the Bering Sea area.  And yes, it is interesting to see the models diverge on where the cold goes first.  I am inclined to just blend the two and send the cold down just east of center for the US.  With the STJ being active, the SER concerns IMHO are always valid.  I suspect we do ok west of the Apps.  I think the SER might be an issue east of the Apps.

[tnweathernut]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

All three of those winters I spent in Knoxville, but had family in TRI....

93 - Ho hum until well...the blizzard.

94 - John can comment here.  Knoxville got less snow than the Plateau, but it was very cold that winter.  I didn't remember it being that cold until John reminded me.  I think we had ice followed by snow for one storm, and it remained on the ground for some time.  I attended UT and lived on Papermill.  Was a major headache getting onto campus as the interstate was a mess.  (I took one meteorology class will at UT...was awesome)

97 - No memory.  Likely was a dud.  I could be wrong. The 90s winters in Knoxville were pretty bad.  That decade of winters, excluding 95-96/93 blizzard/93-94, was not great in the Central Valley.  Even TRI outside of one or two other storms(tnweathernut saw a big JC storm during the late 90s) did not have consistent snows.  09-10 and 14-15 were the best winters since 95-96.  

The TRI winters of the 90s are somewhat of an anomaly at least during my lifetime.  94/95 and 95/96 were decent winters, but there are some near goose eggs in that decade.  TRI's winters have improved(if one likes snow) in terms of snow during the last two decades.   We have had many more smaller snows and some decent medium snows...but lack the big snows of the 80s.  Overall, just more consistent snow pattern with no boomers. I am not sure I can say that about Knoxville's.  My opinion of Knoxville snow is skewed, because I grew up there in the 1970s(snowed like crazy), and lived and worked there during the 90s(some really lousy winters in that decade)...two totally different decades of winter wx.  

Thanks for the extended write-up.  Interesting about the big storm in the Bering Sea area.  And yes, it is interesting to see the models diverge on where the cold goes first.  I am inclined to just blend the two and send the cold down just east of center for the US.  With the STJ being active, the SER concerns IMHO are always valid.  I suspect we do ok west of the Apps.  I think the SER might be an issue east of the Apps.

Those 90's winters (looking back on them) were pretty awesome.  I didn't used to feel that way, as I wanted all cold and snow all the time.   In general, there were a TON of days to get outside in the winter time and enjoy most years, but I saw the three biggest snows in my lifetime in the 90's.  93, 96, and 98.   Looking back on this time period I can now say it was pretty great.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I was in Kingsport in 94.  I do remember the cold. I remember there was a rain-snow storm in Feb (maybe 10-14th or so?). I actually wrote observations for it on my ceiling at my Kingsport home. Weird, I know, but it is me after all. 

Was looking at reanalysis data to see how it looked and was struck how much the surface features look like what we're seeing this weekend: 

 

[Carvers Gap]

17 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Those 90's winters (looking back on them) were pretty awesome.  I didn't used to feel that way, as I wanted all cold and snow all the time.   In general, there were a TON of days to get outside in the winter time and enjoy most years, but I saw the three biggest snows in my lifetime in the 90's.  93, 96, and 98.   Looking back on this time period I can now say it was pretty great.

Definitely a decade with some really big snows, but I think less "extended winter" patterns and less consistent snows.  I remember UT opened their outdoor pool one winter during January.  So yeah, plenty of days to get outside.  And I might be a bit skewed as my family is in Kingsport, and we missed the 98 storm.  I like to tell tnweathernut that we had a guy who missed a week of work in 98.  We got like two inches here in Kingsport (maybe 2") that was gone by mid-day.  JC received like two to three feet!  He kept telling folks that he couldn't get out of his driveway, that his power was out, and that trees were down all over his yard.  We thought he was just taking some time off.  Nope.  They got absolutely hammered.    This was before social media where folks would have been talking about it.  I think my work schedule prevented my from seeing the local news for a few days.  We felt terrible once we knew how much damage he had received.  Johnson City will sometimes get these weather systems that just sit over Buffalo Mountain.  During summer it results in torrential rains.  During winter it results in big snows.  The Methodist camp had to be moved due to flash flooding that knocked buildings off of their foundations.  And to this day, I hate that I missed the winter of '96 here in Kingsport.  I was in Knoxville, and it wasn't a shabby winter there either.  But I kept coming home to visit family, and the parking lots were full of towering mounds of snow after two heavy snows during three weeks.  So, I only have '93 in my back pocket out of those three big storms.  Now, Kingsport did get a big snow the year before or just after the big JC snow.  I think we got 18" on the west end of town and 5" on the other end...depended on if you were down wind of the industrial areas.  I think the winters of the past couple of decades are similar to the 80s excluding 84-85. We are long overdue for a region wide big snow of 12" plus...long overdue.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

While we're on 94, how in the world did this miss us? 

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/03-Mar-94.html 

 

[Carvers Gap]

I do think this is a big storm potential type of pattern upcoming.  Jeff was talking about storm tracks.  Seems like there have been plenty of storm tracks to our SE this winter.  I might argue that the southern track has been one of two dominant tracks...but we just had cold available once during early December.  If we can get cold added to the list of ingredients, I think the "low road" storm track has a chance to produce two or three events over the Upper South(not saying all of them will be big).  With having a warm stretch during the last 2/3 of Dec and first 1/3 of January, the cold was just not there for any snow no matter where the track was.   The 94 January/February pattern might be a good analog.  I have seen 14-15 tossed around as well as maybe 06-07.  I just think snow over the forum area is so tough to forecast at range.  In Alaska, one pretty much knows whatever falls during winter will be snow.  That is an extreme example.  Here, rain is always the best bet.  However, if things come together with our proximity to the GOM and Atlantic...sometimes things can get wintery.  I actually like the storm tracks that we have seen this winter...hopefully we will continue to see energy south of us.

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

While we're on 94, how in the world did this miss us? 

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/03-Mar-94.html 

 

Do you have a snow totals map?  Looks like the warm nose for the eastern valley.  System was very week until it scooted past us it appears.  Might have even been dry slotted with that look.  Slp looks slightly too close.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Snow totals are on that raymond martin site above the gif. Looks like most effects were further north.

Man, been going back and looking at '98 radar loops from mid/late Jan-Feb.  There were a couple of beasts. I was at DB at the time hoping we'd get hammered and get out of school, but I distinctly remember the radar loop I saw that AM before school with the closest thing to a real snow hole over KPT that I've ever seen. 

 

[nrgjeff]

Yes I concur secondary track south. In late January early February, with cold air in place, that would work out well.

32 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

...Seems like there have been plenty of storm tracks to our SE this winter.  I might argue that the southern track has been one of two dominant tracks...but we just had cold available once during early December.  If we can get cold added to the list of ingredients, I think the "low road" storm track has a chance to produce...

My primary Plains track might be influenced by watching yet another one this weekend gin up from KC to STL, the I-70 special. Sometimes weather makes me homesick, lol!

[Math/Met]

50 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Definitely a decade with some really big snows, but I think less "extended winter" patterns and less consistent snows.  I remember UT opened their outdoor pool one winter during January.  So yeah, plenty of days to get outside.  And I might be a bit skewed as my family is in Kingsport, and we missed the 98 storm.  I like to tell tnweathernut that we had a guy who missed a week of work in 98.  We got like two inches here in Kingsport (maybe 2") that was gone by mid-day.  JC received like two to three feet!  He kept telling folks that he couldn't get out of his driveway, that his power was out, and that trees were down all over his yard.  We thought he was just taking some time off.  Nope.  They got absolutely hammered.    This was before social media where folks would have been talking about it.  I think my work schedule prevented my from seeing the local news for a few days.  We felt terrible once we knew how much damage he had received.  Johnson City will sometimes get these weather systems that just sit over Buffalo Mountain.  During summer it results in torrential rains.  During winter it results in big snows.  The Methodist camp had to be moved due to flash flooding that knocked buildings off of their foundations.  And to this day, I hate that I missed the winter of '96 here in Kingsport.  I was in Knoxville, and it wasn't a shabby winter there either.  But I kept coming home to visit family, and the parking lots were full of towering mounds of snow after two heavy snows during three weeks.  So, I only have '93 in my back pocket out of those three big storms.  Now, Kingsport did get a big snow the year before or just after the big JC snow.  I think we got 18" on the west end of town and 5" on the other end...depended on if you were down wind of the industrial areas.  I think the winters of the past couple of decades are similar to the 80s excluding 84-85. We are long overdue for a region wide big snow of 12" plus...long overdue.

The 98 snowstorm in NE TN was probably my favorite weather event of all time. I didn’t realize that Kingsport missed it. I know Greene County, Washington County, and other spots along the mountains got hammered.  Incredible snowfall rates with that system and by far the biggest snowflakes I’ve ever seen (in person or video). I really wish someone had video from that event. I’ve looked several times but never found any footage.

[DownNDirtyTN]

26 minutes ago, Math/Met said:

The 98 snowstorm in NE TN was probably my favorite weather event of all time. I didn’t realize that Kingsport missed it. I know Greene County, Washington County, and other spots along the mountains got hammered.  Incredible snowfall rates with that system and by far the biggest snowflakes I’ve ever seen (in person or video). I really wish someone had video from that event. I’ve looked several times but never found any footage.

 

Lived in Greene County for the 98 snowstorm. I remember that it was my senior year in High School and I had a marketing co-op class that allowed me to get credit for my job (K-Mart) and I also had an off-campus. So I got out of school at like 11:30. I came home and told my dad that he might want to go get my sister from school because it was really starting to snow but they hadn't called schools out yet. He didn't want to listen to me for a couple of minutes then said oh crap and headed out to get her. They closed schools while he was on his way. 

I was supposed to work that night from 4-10 and called in sick. My uncle was the assistant store manager and was not happy with me. But then the storm just blew up and everything got impassible. I'm pretty sure they closed most of the stores down by mid-afternoon with the snow just hammering down. Dad made it home with my sister from school just in time. Plenty of people were stuck trying to get their kids home. 

I remember that storm as being kind of out of nowhere. Maybe I just didn't pay enough attention to the weather then but I'm pretty sure we got like 20" of snow or something close to that and if they were calling for snow it definitely wasn't that much to my recollection. The main takeaway I had was that it came hard, fast, and the flakes were gigantic. It was the hardest I've ever seen it snow in my lifetime. 

[tnweathernut]

28 minutes ago, Math/Met said:

The 98 snowstorm in NE TN was probably my favorite weather event of all time. I didn’t realize that Kingsport missed it. I know Greene County, Washington County, and other spots along the mountains got hammered.  Incredible snowfall rates with that system and by far the biggest snowflakes I’ve ever seen (in person or video). I really wish someone had video from that event. I’ve looked several times but never found any footage.

3+" per hour for over 6 straight hours.  I remember thinking at the time i'd likely never see anything like it again.....   I would have given anything back then to have the technology and social media presence we have now.  the videos would have been awesome.  As a side note, local forecasters NEVER bit on a big snow and were always playing catch up.  The power went out in my part of JC and there was about 6-7" of snow on the ground (either 5:15 or 6:15).  I remember the time because WJHL (Mark Reynolds) was on TV saying don't be surprised if we see some 6-7 inch reports, then poof.......power went out.  We ended up with over 20" and the sounds of transformers blowing all over JC.

[tnweathernut]

3 minutes ago, DownNDirtyTN said:

 

Lived in Greene County for the 98 snowstorm. I remember that it was my senior year in High School and I had a marketing co-op class that allowed me to get credit for my job (K-Mart) and I also had an off-campus. So I got out of school at like 11:30. I came home and told my dad that he might want to go get my sister from school because it was really starting to snow but they hadn't called schools out yet. He didn't want to listen to me for a couple of minutes then said oh crap and headed out to get her. They closed schools while he was on his way. 

I was supposed to work that night from 4-10 and called in sick. My uncle was the assistant store manager and was not happy with me. But then the storm just blew up and everything got impassible. I'm pretty sure they closed most of the stores down by mid-afternoon with the snow just hammering down. Dad made it home with my sister from school just in time. Plenty of people were stuck trying to get their kids home. 

I remember that storm as being kind of out of nowhere. Maybe I just didn't pay enough attention to the weather then but I'm pretty sure we got like 20" of snow or something close to that and if they were calling for snow it definitely wasn't that much to my recollection. The main takeaway I had was that it came hard, fast, and the flakes were gigantic. It was the hardest I've ever seen it snow in my lifetime. 

Upper level low that just sat and spun over the southern apps for hours.  Basically snowed itself out.  Forecast was for light rain and highs in the upper 30's.  Every burst of heavier precip turned the switch to snow.  When it would lighten up it would go back to a light rain.  We were under WWA twice, BOTH while they were already occurring.  We finally went from a winter weather advisory to a warnings, but that was after there was 4-6" of snow already on the ground (from what I remember).  Crazy crazy storm.

[John1122]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

While we're on 94, how in the world did this miss us? 

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/03-Mar-94.html 

 

I had 2 inches of snow from that system and almost 2 inches of rain.  Temps were marginal. 38/31.  As usual, Wise Va was the big winner in the region with 4.5 inches. January 94 had about 3 weeks of cold/snowy/icy weather depending on where you were located. There was a major winter storm on January 17th. If I remember correctly from Tri to Knox to Crossville to Nashville had some pretty big ice with 2-3 inches of snow on top of it. It stayed snow here and across Southern Kentucky with 6-10 inches falling. I can remember watching channel 6 news and Knoxville was a skating rink and my area had massive snowflakes falling. It had been frigid in the days leading up to it and the ground was frozen brick solid. Potent cold front passage with it, temps fell 20 degrees in an hour or two. temps were in the 10s below 0 across a lot of the area after the front passed over the snow/ice cover. Temps stayed cold for the next week after and the snow stayed on the ground for around 8-10 days. After the January cold, February was pretty warm. Which as we know is par for the course here, we often manage 4-5 weeks of cold and 4-5 weeks of warm in certain winters.

[tnweathernut]

My recollection is about a week later we had the exact same setup.  That low ended up going west and backing into the plateau, where more than a foot fell.  I remember driving I-40 and seeing the bend evergreens along the interstate being bent to a horizontal state.  I also had a buddy working for the state of TN who was staying in Cookeville for a project who told me all about how heavy the snow was.  He lived in middle Tennessee and it was partly cloudy and around 52 the afternoon it was snowing so heavily in the Johnson City area the week before.

[Daniel Boone]

11 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I had 2 inches of snow from that system and almost 2 inches of rain.  Temps were marginal. 38/31.  As usual, Wise Va was the big winner in the region with 4.5 inches. January 94 had about 3 weeks of cold/snowy/icy weather depending on where you were located. There was a major winter storm on January 17th. If I remember correctly from Tri to Knox to Crossville to Nashville had some pretty big ice with 2-3 inches of snow on top of it. It stayed snow here and across Southern Kentucky with 6-10 inches falling. I can remember watching channel 6 news and Knoxville was a skating rink and my area had massive snowflakes falling. It had been frigid in the days leading up to it and the ground was frozen brick solid. Potent cold front passage with it, temps fell 20 degrees in an hour or two. temps were in the 10s below 0 across a lot of the area after the front passed over the snow/ice cover. Temps stayed cold for the next week after and the snow stayed on the ground for around 8-10 days. After the January cold, February was pretty warm. Which as we know is par for the course here, we often manage 4-5 weeks of cold and 4-5 weeks of warm in certain winters.

The January 94 storm produced record amounts of snow in Kentucky with over 2 feet reported in Maysville. Rain changed to snow rather abruptly during the afternoon here in Lee County with 7 inches accumulated. Harlan, Ky had 10. A steady increase as you went north in Kentucky. 

 A side note, Mccreary and Wayne Co. KY were big winners in the Feb. 98 storm with 2 feet reported. 

 

[BNAwx]

8 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

My recollection is about a week later we had the exact same setup.  That low ended up going west and backing into the plateau, where more than a foot fell.  I remember driving I-40 and seeing the bend evergreens along the interstate being bent to a horizontal state.  I also had a buddy working for the state of TN who was staying in Cookeville for a project who told me all about how heavy the snow was.  He lived in middle Tennessee and it was partly cloudy and around 52 the afternoon it was snowing so heavily in the Johnson City area the week before.

Yeah, I lived in Cookeville at the time and I vividly remember when the rain began mixing with then changing over to heavy wet snow.  It was definitely unexpected and I believe we ended up with right at 13" if my memory serves my correctly (I'll have to dig out my old notes from back then).

Ironically, my wife (girlfriend at the time) lived in Greeneville and I remember calling her and her telling me that they had over a foot of snow, the power was out and it was still coming down hard.  She said her dad had picked her up from work and by the time they got home, he was basically plowing the snow with the front of his car because it had gotten so deep.

I just remember being jealous that I wasn't there to see it.  Little did I know about a week later the same thing would happen in Cookeville.

[Math/Met]

1 hour ago, tnweathernut said:

3+" per hour for over 6 straight hours.  I remember thinking at the time i'd likely never see anything like it again.....   I would have given anything back then to have the technology and social media presence we have now.  the videos would have been awesome.  As a side note, local forecasters NEVER bit on a big snow and were always playing catch up.  The power went out in my part of JC and there was about 6-7" of snow on the ground (either 5:15 or 6:15).  I remember the time because WJHL (Mark Reynolds) was on TV saying don't be surprised if we see some 6-7 inch reports, then poof.......power went out.  We ended up with over 20" and the sounds of transformers blowing all over JC.

 

1 hour ago, DownNDirtyTN said:

I remember that storm as being kind of out of nowhere. Maybe I just didn't pay enough attention to the weather then but I'm pretty sure we got like 20" of snow or something close to that and if they were calling for snow it definitely wasn't that much to my recollection. The main takeaway I had was that it came hard, fast, and the flakes were gigantic. It was the hardest I've ever seen it snow in my lifetime. 

That’s how I remember it as well. I’m pretty sure that the original forecast was for a rain/snow mix changing to rain by the afternoon. It actually changed to rain in Greeneville, but it changed back to snow when the heavier precip developed.

I’m not sure that the NWS was ever truly aware that such a major snowstorm was occurring. It was a fairly localized event and no social media to get reports. By the time the warnings were finally issued, we had already exceeded the totals mentioned in the warning.

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

It appears the long awaited and long advertised cold is trying to enter the 11-15 day forecast. ECMWF takes it west first; GFS straight in. Anybody surprised? Regardless, with the stout cold air supply in Canada I would expect a cold pattern to eventually work east. If it happens...

Lots of talk about the big storm approaching the Bering Sea. We had one 3 weeks ago. Instead of pumping up the AK ridge, the storm moved east into the GOA. This one is not forecast to do so; however, it remains a risk.

MJO is in a different phase which could help with cold, but some MJO analog years were colder in the Plains than here. Tenn Valley got a couple weeks of cold, then SER. Years 1993 1994 and 1997 were decent snow years for the Plains. Stayed could 3-4 weeks out there; only lasted two weeks here. I'm looking at temps only. Only snow data I have is memory in the Plains. What happened here? 

My concern is that like with previous storms this season, the Plains does better than the Southeast. I'm not just thinking typical climo. I'm talking storm tracks observed this season.

Concerns aside, the model data looks bullish for a few weeks of winter here in the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. CFS has been cold for a few runs. I expect the ECMWF weeklies will keep some cold weeks. Need to see the weeklies stay cold, and more week 3 cold progressing into week 2 (weeklies/ensembles).

We often talk about the cold flip around Martin Luther King Day. Cold has been delayed, but MLK Day is also about a week later than normal. Maybe the cold flip forecast will work out.

I assumed you meant Jan/Feb of those three years or are you saying 93-94, 94-95, 96-97.  I took it as 92-93, 93-94, 96-97.  It is possible that I gave you information that you weren't asking about....

[Carvers Gap]

Is this the 98 snowstorm?

https://fox41blogs.typepad.com/wdrb_weather/2013/02/february-1998-the-forgotten-snowstorm.html

[Holston_River_Rambler]

For those interested here is the RADAR loop:

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=50&interval=60&year=1998&month=2&day=3&hour=0&minute=0 

Here's the Jan one: 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=200&interval=60&year=1998&month=1&day=25&hour=0&minute=0

[John1122]

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Is this the 98 snowstorm?

https://fox41blogs.typepad.com/wdrb_weather/2013/02/february-1998-the-forgotten-snowstorm.html

It's the one that hit here but their snow map was off into Tennessee. I'm pretty sure it was a very plateau/eastern rim and points north event. Dynamic cooling with heavy heavy snow. 16-24 inches across Campbell/Scott/Fentress areas and 8-14 across the highland rim. Daniel Boone will know more about if Claiborne got in on it. 

[Math/Met]

15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Is this the 98 snowstorm?

https://fox41blogs.typepad.com/wdrb_weather/2013/02/february-1998-the-forgotten-snowstorm.html

The Northeast TN storm was 1/27/98.

The January 1998 storm was discussed in the following link (it is primarily about 2009). 

https://www.highknoblandform.com/2010/01/mega-disaster-storm-of-december-2009.html