December 31-January 1, 2019 Storm

[Hoosier]

I realized it's been a month since we've had a thread for a winter system.  Sad.  

So here we go.  The main winter focus for this one generally looks to be north of I-80... and it could actually get going late on the 30th in western areas, but close enough.  We have a robust southern stream wave that will kick out and phase to some extent.  This does not look like a big storm right now, but I think there is upside potential.  We'll see how it trends.

[cyclone77]

This system isn't too far away from being a major storm.  Unfortunately for most of us the better the storm phases the more it means a cold rain as it would likely cut pretty far nw.  If that were to happen hopefully our Iowa/Wisconsin peeps can at least cash in.

[hlcater]

32 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

This system isn't too far away from being a major storm.  Unfortunately for most of us the better the storm phases the more it means a cold rain as it would likely cut pretty far nw.  If that were to happen hopefully our Iowa/Wisconsin peeps can at least cash in.

I’m not really liking where I sit. The trend towards a more phased system almost certainly means it cuts NW of even us.

[snowlover2]

Going to be nothing but a soaker here. Looks like a good 1-2" of rain.

[Stebo]

Locally if it phases we get rain and if it doesn't we get nothing. Oh the excitement is palpable. The only way it works out any better is if the northern stream is faster and brings in the cold air sooner. Beyond that it will be a junky mess like current system.

[Hoosier]

Canadian really hits the front end ice.  I don't have anything concrete to back this up but anecdotally speaking, I would say that is a bias of that model -- too cold at the surface and so too aggressive with freezing rain.  Certainly can't rule out a zone of some freezing rain, but for reasons mentioned in the other thread, it seems unlikely to be a significant ice maker.  

[cyclone77]

23 minutes ago, hlcater said:

I’m not really liking where I sit. The trend towards a more phased system almost certainly means it cuts NW of even us.

Yeah best case scenario for u guys would prob be a slightly less amped version with the phasing. Would mean lower totals in the snow swath but it would keep the rain/snow line further se. Not a very desirable situation lol. Down this way looks like cold rain or cirrus canopy will be the options.

[Hoosier]

This is not like the other 00z models.

[Stebo]

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This is not like the other 00z models.

Yeah more phased = rain unless you are north and west.

[cyclone77]

Great time for weatherbell's Euro data to crap the bed.

[snowlover2]

Just now, cyclone77 said:

Great time for weatherbell's Euro data to crap the bed.

Weather.us also not updating.

[RCNYILWX]

This is not like the other 00z models.

Much better developed cold sector due to the phasing but cuts much farther northwest for the same reason, as Stebo mentioned. The wishful thinking part of me will hold out hope for a happy medium between phasing and southern stream system having far enough east longitude when phasing occurs to allow for changeover to snow here in the Chicago area. Similar to a few nights ago, some 12z European ensemble members had this sort of idea.

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[cyclone77]

^That would be a nice storm for the Madison peeps who've been snow starved for awhile now.

[josh_4184]

6 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

^That would be a nice storm for the Madison peeps who've been snow starved for awhile now.

Don't forget us Northern Mi folks

[cyclone77]

15 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

Don't forget us Northern Mi folks

Hope you guys can cash in as well.  

Well, since last night things have definitely not become any more clear with if, or how much phasing will occur.  Obviously it's a setup that is teetering on the edge and can pretty much go either way.  Hopefully by this time tomorrow night we'll have a bit more confidence as to how this will evolve.  It certainly looks like if there's going to be any sig accumulations from the more phased version, that southern WI up into northern-lower MI would likely have the best shot.  For the most part whenever there's a more phased/amped up version of this storm that is where the heavy snows seem to fall.  ICON model runs have showed some decent snows down in Iowa and northwest IL as well.  

Hopefully the phasing can take place so this thing can dump some appreciable snows for someone in this sub.  Would hate to see the synoptic potential go to waste. 

[josh_4184]

51 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Hope you guys can cash in as well.  

Well, since last night things have definitely not become any more clear with if, or how much phasing will occur.  Obviously it's a setup that is teetering on the edge and can pretty much go either way.  Hopefully by this time tomorrow night we'll have a bit more confidence as to how this will evolve.  It certainly looks like if there's going to be any sig accumulations from the more phased version, that southern WI up into northern-lower MI would likely have the best shot.  For the most part whenever there's a more phased/amped up version of this storm that is where the heavy snows seem to fall.  ICON model runs have showed some decent snows down in Iowa and northwest IL as well.  

Hopefully the phasing can take place so this thing can dump some appreciable snows for someone in this sub.  Would hate to see the synoptic potential go to waste. 

Agreed, both Euro and GFS are trending towards a less phased solution and stronger southern stream which would leave the Midwest with a pretty week disturbance with not much moisture to work with, if we get a decent phase, then yest Wisconsin, Michigan are back in the game. Either way looks like the LES belts may get some LES on the backside regardless. 

[Hoosier]

MSN jackpot on 00z Euro.

[hlcater]

9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

MSN jackpot on 00z Euro.

Lots of cold sector precip on that run as well. Over half of it is wasted as rain down here though. If cold air came in faster, it would be a legitimate storm.

[Geoboy645]

I'm not believing anything until it starts to actually snow from this storm.

[hawkeye_wx]

12z euro is holding serve, dumping a couple inches in eastern Iowa up to several in southern Wisconsin.

[Hoosier]

00z NAM came in fairly hot.

[Hoosier]

You can say this a lot but this system would be big trouble from an ice perspective if it were about 5 degrees colder.  There's a zone with pretty good qpf where temps are progged to be like 33-35.  Even if it were to hang around 32 longer than progged in that area (though there's not much reason to think that happens with this synoptic setup), the precip rates would probably be high enough so that some would runoff.

[cyclone77]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

00z NAM came in fairly hot.

Looking like this could end up being a nice little setup for the Cedar Rapids crew.  Looks like it may rip pretty nicely after the rain changes to snow Monday afternoon.  Won't last long enough to be a huge snow, but a solid 3"+ with a nice period of moderate to heavy snowfall.

Looks like 95% cold rain for the QCA, with perhaps a light coating at the tail-end, similar to yesterday.

[ams30721us]

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

You can say this a lot but this system would be big trouble from an ice perspective if it were about 5 degrees colder.  There's a zone with pretty good qpf where temps are progged to be like 33-35.  Even if it were to hang around 32 longer than progged in that area (though there's not much reason to think that happens with this synoptic setup), the precip rates would probably be high enough so that some would runoff.

Yep, agreed. In fact temps have been off a bit in the models the past few days, leading to Friday's light freezing rain event here, and todays below forecasted temps. If trends of tonights 00z data continue through tomorrow mornings data set, i'd expect advisories to be issued for parts of central & eastern Iowa, and potentially northwestern Illinois. 

Looks like a light glaze of ice during the morning commute on Monday, followed by the potential for a few inches of snow by the afternoon & evening commute, especially along & west of the Mississippi. 

[hawkeye_wx]

14 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Looking like this could end up being a nice little setup for the Cedar Rapids crew.  Looks like it may rip pretty nicely after the rain changes to snow Monday afternoon.  Won't last long enough to be a huge snow, but a solid 3"+ with a nice period of moderate to heavy snowfall.

Looks like 95% cold rain for the QCA, with perhaps a light coating at the tail-end, similar to yesterday.

I'd like to see some snow falling, but I've never been a big fan of rain to snow systems.  If we get a couple inches it'll be heavy slop.  Twenty years ago I wouldn't mind cleaning that up, but not so much now.

[hlcater]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Looking like this could end up being a nice little setup for the Cedar Rapids crew.  Looks like it may rip pretty nicely after the rain changes to snow Monday afternoon.  Won't last long enough to be a huge snow, but a solid 3"+ with a nice period of moderate to heavy snowfall.

Looks like 95% cold rain for the QCA, with perhaps a light coating at the tail-end, similar to yesterday.

While I am with Hawkeye in that rain to snow sucks, the decent rates on many models will be something to look forward to. Unless we get pixie dust, but I can’t really see that happening as the system looks fairly robust and compact. Typically pixie dust is more of an issue in strung out systems like clippers. There’s probably no correlation at all, it just *seems* to be that way. That and it currently stands as a 2-4” event around here, though the models(aside from the GFS) continue to trend up with this. I’ll call it a massive win if we squeak 4”+ out of this. 

[hawkeye_wx]

00z euro.... weaker in Iowa, stronger in the lakes.

[hlcater]

2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

00z euro.... weaker in Iowa, stronger in the lakes.

As you saw me say, this solution coupled with the earlier maturation of the system on other models would be great. Some models even get this system going in SC Iowa.

[IWXwx]

A little bit of moisture to work with

[cyclone77]

12z HRRR further east with the precip shield.  Also keeps any snow north of the IL/WI border.  We're less than 24hrs out and it's still kind of up in the air with how things will evolve.