January 2019 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Hope you're enjoying the holidays ... will open up a contest thread for January 2019, and assess where things stand from the number of entries. I won't continue the Rumble unless there's a request from the participants to keep up that particular phase of the contest. As is customary at the new year, the deadline is extended into the month (06z Jan 3rd) and the late penalties will probably be smaller than usual if needed.

I mentioned in the December thread that it might be a good idea to have a discussion about the contest, despite trying a number of things to pump up interest, eventually the turnout has decreased back to the core of about a dozen active participants. If somebody wants to host this and see if a change of host would make any difference, I am in favor of trying that and as to scoring, that new person could score or let me post scores, either way if a new host can attract new participants, we would all be happy about it. But it may not be a case of needing a new host, perhaps people naturally drop out when they find they are not near the lead. It was somewhat puzzling that two well-positioned forecasters disappeared at a late stage, but for whatever reason we are near that critical point where the contest seems to be in danger of fading out, which would not be a good thing as it has been with the forum even back in its earlier "eastern" incarnation. 

So enough about that, the contest will be the usual challenge of predicting the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 "normals" for these nine locations:

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(relaxed late penalties after deadline of 06z Jan 3, or end of the day Jan 2nd in all time zones). 

-- feel free to post any thoughts about the contest, or PM me if you prefer. 

The 2018 contest results will be posted during the period Jan 1-2, and it appears to be a very close finish in several of the contests, the results may come down to a few tenths of a degree difference at the final whistle. I have been updating the snowfall contest although that work is far from taxing.

Happy new year. 

 

[Tom]

 

DCA: -1.5

NYC: -1.1

BOS: -1.2

ORD: -2.5

ATL: -3.5

IAH: +0.5

DEN: +0.1

PHX: +0.3

SEA: +1.1

Philly

I will edit before end of month just venting about how bad winter has started, done all in the SSWE and PHASE 7-8-1 for the win show me the snow

[Roger Smith]

you look a bit low on some of those ...the only edit you might need would be nine decimal places.

(I should have quoted those earlier numbers which were like +20 ... )

 

[wxallannj]

DCA: +2.2

NYC: +1.8

BOS: +1.3

ORD: +2.2

ATL: +2.4

IAH: +0.6

DEN: +1.4

PHX: +0.3

SEA: +1.3

 

NYC

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.8    -0.4     -0.6      2.5      1.4    -0.3        2.0      0.5     4.1

 

NYC subforum

[Stebo]

DCA: +1.2

NYC: +1.3

BOS: +1.5

ORD: +1.7

ATL: -0.5

IAH: -1.2

DEN: +0.7

PHX: -1.3

SEA: -1.5

[wxdude64]

DCA: +1.4

NYC: +1.1

BOS: +0.8

ORD: -0.2

ATL: -0.4

IAH: -0.2

DEN: +1.2

PHX: +0.4

SEA: -0.4

[Scotty Lightning]

Thank god the deadline isn't until the 3rd...WHEW! 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.5      1.0       0.5      0.5     1.5     1.5          0.0     0.5     0.0 

[bkviking]

DCA: +0.8

NYC: +0.6

BOS: +0.6

ORD: +1.0

ATL: -0.2

IAH: -1.0

DEN: +1.1

 PHX: -1.0

 SEA: -0.3

Thanks for reprieve on timing, Roger. And keep contest going. 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA: +0.9

NYC: +0.5

BOS: +0.3

ORD: +1.2

ATL: +0.4

IAH: -0.1

DEN: +1.4

PHX: -0.3

SEA: +1.0

NYC

[Rjay]

DCA: +2.0

NYC: +2.0

BOS: +2.0

ORD: +1.5

ATL: +1.5

IAH: +1.0

DEN: +1.0

 PHX: -0.5

 SEA: -0.5

[Roger Smith]

Well I guess we will continue on then, as most of the regulars seem interested in the contest. I imagine RodneyS will be in later, he always likes to post near the deadline (which is this evening at 06z). Thanks for your comments above. 

Here's my shot in the dark ...

+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.5 ___ +2.0 _ --0.3 _ --0.5 ___ +1.5 _ +0.5 _ +1.8

will post a table when I think all entries are in. 

This pattern reminds me a bit of 1991-92 for some reason, that was not a very exciting winter where I lived at the time (east-central Ontario). 

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

3.2      3.5     2.8       4.9     3.4     2.2          1.9     -1.5     0.4 

[Roger Smith]

It would seem that we have the full turnout now, so here's the table of forecasts for January ... no late penalties which is a nice thing ...

 

Table of forecasts for January, 2019

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

RodneyS _________________+3.2 _+3.5 _+2.8 __ +4.9 _+3.4 _+2.2 ___ +1.9 _--1.5 _+0.4

wxallannj ________________ +2.2 _+1.8 _+1.3 __ +2.2 _+2.4 _+0.6 ___+1.4 _+0.3 _+1.3

RJay ____________________ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___+1.0 _--0.5 _--0.5

Scotty Lightning ___________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 __ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ____0.0 _+0.5 __0.0

wxdude64 ________________ +1.4 _+1.1 _+0.8 __ --0.2 _--0.4 _--0.2 ___+1.2 _+0.4 _--0.4

Roger Smith ______________ +1.2 _+1.3 _+1.5 __ +2.0 _--0.3 _--0.5 ___ +1.5 _+0.5 _+1.8

 

___ Consensus ____________ +1.2 _+1.1 _+0.8 __ +1.5 _+0.4 _--0.1 ___ +1.1 _+0.3 _+0.4

 

Stebo ____________________+1.2 _+1.3 _+1.5 __ +1.7 _--0.5 _--1.2 ___ +0.7 _--1.3 _--1.5 

hudsonvalley21 ____________+0.9 _+0.5 _+0.3 __ +1.2 _+0.4 _--0.1 ___ +1.4 _--0.3 _+1.0

BKViking _________________ +0.8 _+0.6 _+0.6 __ +1.0 _--0.2 _--1.0 ___ +1.1 _--1.0 _--0.3

DonSutherland.1 ___________+0.8 _--0.4 _--0.6 __ +2.5 _+1.4 _--0.3 ___ +2.0 _+0.5 _+4.1

___ Normal ________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

Tom _____________________--1.5 _--1.1 _--1.2 __ --2.5 _--3.5 _+0.5 ___ +0.1 _+0.3 _+1.1

_______________________________________________________________________

warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded. Normal also joint coldest for DEN. 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

First report on anomalies and forecasts ...

______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_8th ___ (7d) __________+10.2_ +7.1_ +7.6 _+12.0_+12.5 _+1.8 __+2.7 _--6.2 _+2.7

_8th ___ (p14d) _________+4.5_ +2.5_ +2.8 _ +6.0 _ +5.8 _+2.0 __ +5.0 _--1.6 _+2.5

_8th ___ (p24d) _________+1.5_ +0.5_ +0.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 _+2.0 __ +1.5 _--2.0 _+1.5

[Roger Smith]

Snowfall contest 2018-2019

... updates through Jan 31st 

... forecasts marked in red have been passed by actual snowfall.

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

 

Snowfall to date ________  12.9 __ 7.5 __ 2.3 ___32.3 __21.4 __91.0___14.4 __ 0.0 __69.3 

 

RJay __________________33.0 _54.0 _ 70.0 __ 30.0 _ 38.0 _100.0___ 65.0 __ 6.0 _100.0

DonSutherland.1 ________ 32.5 _ 50.0 _ 57.5 __ 48.5 _ 53.5 _110.0___ 52.0 __ 3.5 _ 93.0

Tom __________________ 26.3 _ 56.4_ 65.6 __ 29.6 _ 41.6 _ 95.2 ___ 62.3 __ 1.9 _ 89.6

wxallannj ______________ 25.0 _ 47.0 _ 52.0 __ 49.0 _ 51.0 _ 83.0 ___ 57.0 _ 13.0_ 77.0

Scotty Lightning _________25.0 _ 42.0 _ 75.0__ 70.0_ 80.0_120.0___75.0 _ 10.0 _ 85.0

BKViking _______________24.0 _ 55.0 _ 71.0 __ 35.0 _ 39.0 _ 78.0 ___ 60.0 _ 18.0 _ 78.0

 

___ Consensus _________ 24.0 _ 44.5 _ 60.9 __ 37.5 _ 44.7 _ 92.6 ___ 58.5 __ 6.4 _ 88.8

___ Consensus dep _____ +11.1_+37.0_+58.6__+5.2_+23.3_+1.6 ___+44.1 _+6.4_ +19.5

 

dmillz25 _______________ 24.0 _ 53.0 _ 67.0 __ 40.0 _ 37.7 _ 85.0 ___ 57.0 __ 5.0 _ 90.0

wxdude64 _____________ 22.9 _ 40.6 _ 59.7 __ 38.9 _ 45.9 _ 98.4 ___ 67.6 __ 6.7 _ 90.3

hudsonvalley21 _________ 22.0 _ 40.0 _ 62.0 __ 36.0 _ 48.2 _101.5___ 51.0 __ 5.7 _ 88.0

Roger Smith ____________18.0 _ 28.0 _ 45.0 __ 30.5 _ 35.5 _ 90.0 ___ 60.5 _ 10.0 _ 78.0

Stebo _________________ 13.2 _ 34.3 _ 53.5 __ 33.5 _ 47.0 _ 87.0 ___ 37.0 _ 10.7 _ 97.0

RodneyS _______________12.5 _ 25.0 _ 37.5 __ 41.0 _ 43.5 _ 89.0 ___ 52.5 __ 4.5 _ 73.0

_____________________________________________________________________

High forecasts in bold, low forecasts in italic. 

Consensus is median, average of 6th and 7th ranked forecasts. 

Normal will be added later from NWS daily climate data snowfalls late in season. 

... watch for updates to season totals and this post will migrate to new months as we move along .

[Roger Smith]

Continued reports on anomalies and forecasts ...

______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_8th ___ (7d) __________+10.2_ +7.1_ +7.6 _+12.0_+12.5 _+1.8 __+2.7 _--6.2 _+2.7

15th __ (14d) __________ +5.5_ +3.1_ +3.9 __ +6.9_ +6.9 _+1.5 __+2.9 _--2.1 _+4.1

22nd __ (21d) __________+2.9_ +0.9_ +2.1 __ +4.3_ +4.8 _+1.1 __+4.2 _--0.6 _+3.8

25th __ (24d) __________ +2.8_ +1.4_ +2.4 __ +3.3_ +4.4 _+1.1 __+2.8 _--1.1 _+3.6 ((*))

29th __ (28d) __________ +2.4_ +1.3_ +2.7 __ +0.3_ +3.5 _+0.9 __+1.8 _--0.9 _+3.6 

 

_8th ___ (p14d) _________+4.5_ +2.5_ +2.8 __ +6.0 _+5.8 _+2.0 __+5.0 _--1.6 _+2.5

15th ___ (p21d) _________+3.5_ +1.2_ +1.8 __ +3.8_ +5.0 __0.0 __ +2.3 _--1.0 _+2.7

22nd ___ (p28d) ________ +2.0_ +0.1_ +0.5 __ +0.8_ +2.0 _--1.0 __ +2.8 _+0.5 _+3.1

 

_8th ___ (p24d) _________+1.5_ +0.5_ +0.5 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _+2.0 __ +1.5 _--2.0 _+1.5 ((*))

15th ___ (p31d) _________+0.5_--1.5_ --1.0 ____ 0.0 _ +2.0 _--1.5 __--1.5 _--1.7 _+0.5

22nd ___ (p31d) ________ +0.5_--0.5_ --0.5 ____ 0.0 _ +1.0 _--1.5 __ +2.0 _+0.5 _+4.0

29th ___ (p31d) _________+1.5_ +0.5_ +2.0 ___--2.5 _+2.0 __0.0 __ +1.5 _--0.5 _+3.0

31st __ final anomalies ___ +1.2_ --0.1_ +1.8 ___--2.8_ +2.6 _+0.3 __+1.3 _--0.4 _+3.0

 

____________________________________________________________

15th _ The expected cooling trend was reasonably well predicted with an average error of 1.04 deg. The coming week will see most locations falling slowly at first and then much faster from their current positive anomalies. Then the GFS advertises very cold anomalies for most locations after 21st, and this should begin to turn some of the positives to negatives before the month ends. 

22nd _ The faster cooling trend in the past seven days was well handled except at DEN and SEA which warmed more than expected. The next seven days will be a collection of very cold days with milder than average intrusions, making the reliability of the seven-day (and therefore end of month) outlooks a bit subject to change, then the last three days look very cold in the east, cold to milder further west. SEA should hold on to a large positive anomaly which will be good news for DonS if I am reading the charts right. 

Provisional scoring will follow later today, based on the new end of month figures. 

25th _ The 16d forecast from 8th is verified today ((*)) rows can be compared. The average error is 1.5 deg and the score for the "forecast" would be 640, about the same as our consensus from the first, so no improvement and similar numbers to our consensus. I have not updated end of month because it seems that if the cold is extreme the numbers will verify and if not some locations will come in higher by 0.5 to 1.0, so I will revisit this on 29th. 

29th _ Got to this task very late so I have the anomalies for the 29th as well. The forecasts from 22nd were generally too cold in the east and too warm in the west, so changes in the end of month are mostly due to that fact rather than anything unexpected from today to Thursday. Chicago will plummet with record cold on top of the severe cold they've had all week, and the eastern cities will only get a glancing blow, so those numbers are going to change substantially. The western three will all come in a bit colder than earlier forecast, I think. Scores will be adjusted soon.

31st _ 1st overnight __ updating anomalies and scoring __ no big surprises except that IAH already reported, usually they are last in. 

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for January 2019

 

FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ all nine TOTAL

 

hudsonvalley21 ____________94 _ 88 _ 70 __ 252 __ 20 _ 56 _ 92 __ 168 __ 420 __ 98 _ 98 _ 60 __ 256 _____676

wxallannj _________________80 _ 62 _ 90 __ 232 __ 00 _ 96 _ 94 __190 __ 422 __ 98 _ 86 _ 66 __ 250 _____ 672

Roger Smith _____________100 _ 72 _ 94 __266 __ 04 _ 42 _ 84 __ 130 __ 396 __ 96 _ 82 _ 76__ 254 _____ 650

DonSutherland.1 ___________92 _ 94 _ 52 __ 238 __ 00 _ 76 _ 88 __ 164 __ 402 __ 86 _ 82_ 78__ 246 _____ 648

 

___ Consensus ___________100 _ 76 _ 80 __ 256 __ 14 _ 56 _ 92 __ 162 __ 418 __ 96 _ 86 _ 48 __ 230 _____ 648

 

wxdude64 ________________96 _ 76 _ 80 __ 252 __ 48 _ 40 _ 90 __ 178 __ 430 __ 98 _ 84 _ 32 __ 214 _____ 644

RJay ____________________ 84 _ 58 _ 96 __ 238 __ 14 _ 78 _ 86 __ 178 __ 416 __ 94 _ 98 _30 __ 222 _____ 638

Scotty Lightning ___________ 94 _ 78 _ 74 __ 246 __ 34 _ 78 _ 76 __ 188 __ 434 __ 74 _ 82_ 40 __ 196 _____ 630

 

___ Normal _______________76 _ 98 _ 64 __ 238 __ 44_ 48 _ 94 __ 186 __ 424 __ 74 _ 92 _ 40 __ 206 _____ 630

 

BKViking _________________ 92 _ 86 _ 76 __ 254 __ 24 _ 44 _ 74 __ 142 __ 396 __ 96 _ 88 _ 34 __ 218 _____ 614

Tom _____________________46 _ 80 _ 40__ 166 __ 94 _ 00 _ 96 __ 190 __ 356 __ 76 _ 86 _ 62 __ 224 _____ 580

Stebo ___________________100 _ 72 _ 94 __266__ 10 _ 38 _ 70 __ 118 __ 384 __ 88 _ 82 _ 10 __ 180 _____ 564

RodneyS _________________ 60 _ 28 _ 80 __ 168 __ 00 _ 84 _ 62 __ 146 __ 314 __ 88 _ 78 _ 48 __ 214 _____ 528

_______________________________________________________________________

 

Extreme forecasts  ... DCA, IAH, PHX and DEN have high scores near middle of pack. 

NYC was cold enough at -0.1 to make DonS the winner with second coldest forecast (Normal also gets a win) and Tom takes a loss with coldest forecast and a lower score. 

BOS was the other way round, second warmest forecast of RJay (+2.0) wins and RodneyS takes the loss. 

ATL has the same result, except that it's wxallannj (+2.4) with the win and RodneyS a bit too warm there also.

ORD ended so cold (-2.8) that Tom is a winner at -2.5, and his score will freeze your scores too (no mercy rule if anyone's raw score is 60+). With the anomaly at +3.3 on the 24th, Tom's -2.5 was looking like a real outlier until this mega-cold-wave showed up (ORD anomalies have been dropping about 1.0 per day, unheard of at end of the month). 

SEA was locked into a finishing value between Don's highest forecast (+4.1) and Roger's second highest (+1.8), so +3.0 (or higher) made it a win for Don.

So ... five locations qualify, three where a win-loss situation developed and two with an outright winner. 

STANDINGS

DonSutherland1 ______ 2-0

Tom ________________1-1

RJay ________________1-0

wxallannj ____________1-0

Normal ______________1-0

RodneyS ____________ 0-2

______________________________________________________________________________