January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

 

you forgot to add that no one has a clue as too what is actually going to happen the rest of the way...……...

True-it could turn 93-94 in 10 days and no one would care about the trainwreck before hand...of course it could continue warm and wet and we can all jump like rats off the sinking ship of winter 18-19

[sferic]

I begin to worry if nothing appreciable happens before daily highs begin to rise during the 2nd week of February.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

9 minutes ago, sferic said:

I begin to worry if nothing appreciable happens before daily highs begin to rise during the 2nd week of February.

I though they start to rise the second week of January. Regardless I see where your coming from. We need a full scale pattern change. I like post Jan 20th to bring the goods. 

[donsutherland1]

Even as winter has been largely on "pause" since the first half of December, unusual large-scale weather phenomena have been occurring. The SOI wound up averaging an El Niño record +9.14 in December with 45 days during which that index was positive. The MJO moved into Phase 5 and got locked in for a winter record duration while setting a preliminary December amplitude record for Phase 5.

On January 1, the MJO remained in Phase 5 for the 15th consecutive day with an amplitude of 2.715 (RMM). That amplitude is somewhat higher than the 12/31-adjusted figure of 2.508. There were only 6 prior situations when the MJO remained in Phase 5 for at least 15 consecutive days. All of them occurred either during meteorological summer and/or meteorological fall.

The MJO's move into Phase 6 at a high to very high amplitude is likely imminent, as some of the guidance initialized in Phase 6. During the second week of January, it will likely progress into Phase 7. As the MJO's progression has been consistently slower than modeled, there is some risk that it could make a slower progression through Phase 6 than currently modeled.

As the MJO moves into Phase 6, the SOI could experience fluctuations to negative values. Already, the SOI has been negative for 3 consecutive days for the first time since November 17-19. The AO will likely remain mainly positive at the onset, but could develop negative values as the MJO approaches Phase 7.

As the MJO reaches Phase 7, the SOI will likely go persistently negative and the AO will also become increasingly negative. The second half of January could feature the development of a predominant PNA+/AO- combination.

The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, which recently peaked, and has seen zonal winds at 1 mb and now 10 mb reverse, remains a wild card. While the polar vortex is beginning to split, considerable uncertainty exists about the overall evolution of events related to the SSW and their ultimate impact on North America. Any outcome will likely have a long-duration effect on the overall pattern following the completion of the ongoing event.

[qg_omega]

7 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

I'd give it a couple more weeks, but if we see the good pattern pushing back once again, it may be time to toss in the proverbial towel as that would follow the trend of some other notable duds where the modeling always had the good pattern 10-15 days out but it never moved up in time...

Difference this time their is no good pattern modeled 10 to 15 days away.  EPS is ugly out to 360 hours.  Deep trough remains over Alaska the whole run.

[Ji]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Even as winter has been largely on "pause" since the first half of December, unusual large-scale weather phenomena have been occurring. The SOI wound up averaging an El Niño record +9.14 in December with 45 days during which that index was positive. The MJO moved into Phase 5 and got locked in for a winter record duration while setting a preliminary December amplitude record for Phase 5.

On January 1, the MJO remained in Phase 5 for the 15th consecutive day with an amplitude of 2.715 (RMM). That amplitude is somewhat higher than the 12/31-adjusted figure of 2.508. There were only 6 prior situations when the MJO remained in Phase 5 for at least 15 consecutive days. All of them occurred either during meteorological summer and/or meteorological fall.

The MJO's move into Phase 6 at a high to very high amplitude is likely imminent, as some of the guidance initialized in Phase 6. During the second week of January, it will likely progress into Phase 7. As the MJO's progression has been consistently slower than modeled, there is some risk that it could make a slower progression through Phase 6 than currently modeled.

As the MJO moves into Phase 6, the SOI could experience fluctuations to negative values. Already, the SOI has been negative for 3 consecutive days for the first time since November 17-19. The AO will likely remain mainly positive at the onset, but could develop negative values as the MJO approaches Phase 7.

As the MJO reaches Phase 7, the SOI will likely go persistently negative and the AO will also become increasingly negative. The second half of January could feature the development of a predominant PNA+/AO- combination.

The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, which recently peaked, and has seen zonal winds at 1 mb and now 10 mb reverse, remains a wild card. While the polar vortex is beginning to split, considerable uncertainty exists about the overall evolution of events related to the SSW and their ultimate impact on North America. Any outcome will likely have a long-duration effect on the overall pattern following the completion of the ongoing event.

your sound way less confident every time you post:) see you on draft day

[donsutherland1]

30 minutes ago, Ji said:

your sound way less confident every time you post:) see you on draft day

It's a waiting game with the MJO. The guidance is in big disagreement on its evolution and amplitude. With the exception of  Australia's BOM, none of the other tools have had a good handle on its progression in recent weeks.

The SSW is a polar vortex-splitting event, not a displacement event. The latter typically has a larger, more wintry impact on North America.

There are some additional developments that will need watching.

My guess is that by January 15-20, winter's end game will be readily apparent. For now, it's a matter of waiting, as that's still more than two weeks away.

Have a great New Year. Hopefully, winter will revive in coming weeks to make the wait worth it.

 

[donsutherland1]

Among the following locations set annual precipitation records during 2018. This list is not all-inclusive.

Amherst, MA: 63.62"
Asheboro (2 W), NC: 74.67"
Asheville: 79.48"
Atlantic City: 68.57"
Baltimore: 71.82"
Beltsville, MD/: 65.90"
Boone (1 SE), NC: 93.42"
Boonton (1 SE), NJ: 76.58"
Caesars Head, SC: 115.10"
Charleston, WV: 67.05"
Columbus, OH: 55.18"
Cumberland (2), MD: 67.06"
Danville: 67.61"
Emmittsburg (2 SE) MD: 77.16"
Elizabeth City, NC: 63.95"
Elmira, NY: 57.62"
Farmingdale, NY: 50.84"
Frostburg (2), MD: 74.58"
Grandfather Mountain, NC: 100.59"
Green Bay: 39.21"
Greensboro: 64.11"
Hamburg, PA: 75.92"
Highlands, NC: 116.41"
Jocassee (8 WNW), SC: 123.45"
Kenosha, WI: 48.00"
Lakeland, FL: 72.90"
Lexington, KY: 71.98"
Louisville: 68.83"
Lynchburg: 65.70"
Mason City, IA: 50.01"
Mechanicsville (5 NE), MD: 80.78"
Morehead City (2 WNW), NC: 92.13"
Mt. Mitchell, NC: 139.94"
New Bern, NC: 79.17"
Newport/Morehead City WFO, NC: 101.96"
Oakland (1 SE), MD: 70.40"
Reading, PA: 68.08"
Roanoke: 62.45"
Scranton: 61.08"
Shirley, NY: 62.54"
Shrub Oak, NY: 66.01"
Sterling: 66.74"
Upton - NWSFO, NY: 70.71"
Washington, DC: 66.28"
Wilmington, DE: 61.37"
Wilmington, NC: 102.40"
Woonsocket, RI: 68.90"

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Even as winter has been largely on "pause" since the first half of December, unusual large-scale weather phenomena have been occurring. The SOI wound up averaging an El Niño record +9.14 in December with 45 days during which that index was positive. The MJO moved into Phase 5 and got locked in for a winter record duration while setting a preliminary December amplitude record for Phase 5.

On January 1, the MJO remained in Phase 5 for the 15th consecutive day with an amplitude of 2.715 (RMM). That amplitude is somewhat higher than the 12/31-adjusted figure of 2.508. There were only 6 prior situations when the MJO remained in Phase 5 for at least 15 consecutive days. All of them occurred either during meteorological summer and/or meteorological fall.

The MJO's move into Phase 6 at a high to very high amplitude is likely imminent, as some of the guidance initialized in Phase 6. During the second week of January, it will likely progress into Phase 7. As the MJO's progression has been consistently slower than modeled, there is some risk that it could make a slower progression through Phase 6 than currently modeled.

As the MJO moves into Phase 6, the SOI could experience fluctuations to negative values. Already, the SOI has been negative for 3 consecutive days for the first time since November 17-19. The AO will likely remain mainly positive at the onset, but could develop negative values as the MJO approaches Phase 7.

As the MJO reaches Phase 7, the SOI will likely go persistently negative and the AO will also become increasingly negative. The second half of January could feature the development of a predominant PNA+/AO- combination.

The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, which recently peaked, and has seen zonal winds at 1 mb and now 10 mb reverse, remains a wild card. While the polar vortex is beginning to split, considerable uncertainty exists about the overall evolution of events related to the SSW and their ultimate impact on North America. Any outcome will likely have a long-duration effect on the overall pattern following the completion of the ongoing event.

So just how unusual is it to have winter essentially paused  by the MJO like this? Do we have any other analogs to compare this too?

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Difference this time their is no good pattern modeled 10 to 15 days away.  EPS is ugly out to 360 hours.  Deep trough remains over Alaska the whole run.

that's ugly.     And it's the EPS so there's reason to worry.   If it were the GFS I'd be more relaxed....

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So just how unusual is it to have winter essentially paused  by the MJO like this? Do we have any other analogs to compare this too?

Last Feb, the MJO got stuck in a warm phase and we were warm and rainy most of the month outside of a president's weekend 4 incher than melted in a day

[snowman19]

28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's a waiting game with the MJO. The guidance is in big disagreement on its evolution and amplitude. With the exception of  Australia's BOM, none of the other tools have had a good handle on its progression in recent weeks.

The SSW is a polar vortex-splitting event, not a displacement event. The latter typically has a larger, more wintry impact on North America.

There are some additional developments that will need watching.

My guess is that by January 15-20, winter's end game will be readily apparent. For now, it's a matter of waiting, as that's still more than two weeks away.

Have a great New Year. Hopefully, winter will revive in coming weeks to make the wait worth it.

 

From the research I’ve read, getting a wind reversal is one of the most important factors in a SSW, it has a profound impact on the NAM state

[NittanyWx]

3 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

The eps has been killing off the mjo too soon just to correct later on.

This isnt true.  It has weakened the amplitude of the MJO, thanks in part to a westward moving Equatorial Rossby Wave firing up convection into the IO.  Looking at the VP space, that's not altogether unlikely right now.

Certainly had a better handle than the GEFS which amplified convection to the point that it was literally off the phase space chart.

 

[SnoSki14]

It would be something if it didn't snow at all for met winter. Have we ever seen a winter where Dec-March was shut out. 

I guess 11/12 would be the closest.

[donsutherland1]

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

From the research I’ve read, getting a wind reversal is one of the most important factors in a SSW, it has a profound impact on the NAM state

Yes. And the wind has reversed at 1 mb and 10 mb. It remains to be seen whether it will reverse at 30 mb.

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It would be something if it didn't snow at all for met winter. Have we ever seen a winter where Dec-March was shut out. 

I guess 11/12 would be the closest.

The closest call was 1997-98 with just 0.5" for DJF. The least snowfall any winter was 2.8" in 1972-73.

[donsutherland1]

47 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So just how unusual is it to have winter essentially paused  by the MJO like this? Do we have any other analogs to compare this too?

The is a meteorological winter record 15-consecutive days where the MJO was locked in Phase 5. That's never happened before since the MJO was recorded daily beginning in 1974. The closest case to that was December 20, 2013 through January 2, 2014.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The closest call was 1997-98 with just 0.5" for DJF. The least snowfall any winter was 2.8" in 1972-73.

Is there any comparisons to those years right now. The wet weather reminds me of 97/98.

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Is there any comparisons to those years right now. The wet weather reminds me of 97/98.

1972 was very wet: 67.03" precipitation in NYC; 1973 followed with 57.23" precipitation.

1997 and 1998 had 43.93" and 48.69" precipitation respectively.

2018 finished with 65.55" precipitation (4th highest on record and just below 1972).

[Brian5671]

29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It would be something if it didn't snow at all for met winter. Have we ever seen a winter where Dec-March was shut out. 

I guess 11/12 would be the closest.

89-90 was close as well.   A little in Dec, but Jan and Feb were mostly snowless that year

[MJO812]

Icon is colder but all rain for next week

Cmc is snow and a few inches

[SnoSki14]

32 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Icon is colder but all rain for next week

Cmc is snow and a few inches

East based -NAO trending stronger on guidance. 

Could turn more interesting if trends continue. Maybe a snow to rain scenario if we're lucky. Odds probably 20% right now of any snow. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

1972 was very wet: 67.03" precipitation in NYC; 1973 followed with 57.23" precipitation.

1997 and 1998 had 43.93" and 48.69" precipitation respectively.

2018 finished with 65.55" precipitation (4th highest on record and just below 1972).

The crazy thing about 72-73 is I think many stations in the southern US had their snowiest winter on record so it was probably just a boatload of bad luck up this way.  I know in February that year a massive storm occurred in Georgia and South Carolina with places like Augusta seeing 20 inches 

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

The MJO is moving, it'll be in phase 7 in less than a week. They'll probably be some lag before we see the effects of it, but I feel good about the winter pattern post 1/20. 

Pretty much every Nino this decade has been back-loaded, I fully expect the same this year. It's not hard to get AN snow totals either in a short time frame, it's happened frequently the past two decades. 

Delayed not denied this season.

Enso is in a neutral phase and is not even a Nino attm per CPC so yeah.

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

At least we know that the temperature pattern so far in early January 19 is closer to 13 than 15. We had that very impressive arctic shot during the first week of January 15 with single digit lows in NYC. 12-13 was all about winter being just 10 days away until it finally clicked later on. 12-13 was probably the most recent winter getting pushed back every week  like this year.

Chris, was the February 2013 snowstorm the only 6"+ event we had that winter?

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

I think the 8th/9th is the best chance we got here as far as snowfall through the next couple of weeks.  I don't hate the look in theory, front end thump with overrunning and a wedge cold with HP in Quebec.  But it will not stay as snow.  It's really a front end thump and changeover scenario to me if we can get something.  Still a week away though.

 

Thats what I was thinking too, looks like your typical 2-4" before changeover scenario.  The only thing is if the cold is stubborn to leave and we could stay as snow until almost the end of the storm, we could get more.  I remember something like that happening in February of 2008 another mild winter, and we ended up getting a surprise 6-8" that only changed over right at the end to drizzle, and that ended up being the biggest storm of the season.  We also had a delayed changeover in November, so it's possible.

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Exactly.  And as per my earlier post, it's not just the clickbait folks trying to make ad money, although they're the worst - it's also the decent percentage of folks on weather boards like this that likely suffer from a bit of confirmation bias, i.e., letting their desire for snow influence what they predict.  90% or more of the folks on these boards are here for the snow and are more likely to predict snowier than normal winters - just go back and look at the seasonal forecasts by non-pros in particular - almost all went above normal.  

It's also true that we get some of our snowiest winters when no one predicted them lol- remember 2010-11?

Long range forecasting is little more than tossing dice.  Too much emphasis is placed on ENSO when it doesn't matter more than any other signal unless it's very strong and overwhelms the pattern.

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Not a chance.  It would be like late December 01 when we did get a strongly -AO and NAO but it didn’t matter because the pacific was terrible.  December 1996 was similar 

I was just going to say having a -NAO with no true arctic air north of us reminds me of 2001-02.  You need to have elevation to get snow in that kind of pattern, it's why it snowed in the mtns and even piedmont of the Carolinas that winter and not here.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 42deg., or about 9degs. AN.

EURO is a Trace of Snow for the next 10 days.     GEFS is 65% chance of at least 4" by the 19th.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The crazy thing about 72-73 is I think many stations in the southern US had their snowiest winter on record so it was probably just a boatload of bad luck up this way.  I know in February that year a massive storm occurred in Georgia and South Carolina with places like Augusta seeing 20 inches 

Same thing happened in 01-02.