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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations


Rtd208

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Just now, NycStormChaser said:

Tell that to the people involved in a deadly pileup in Pennsylvania earlier. 

Tell that to the people in multiple accidents around THIS area that were let out of work early because of the squall instead of being told to wait it out. People got that alert and literally fled to the doors making what was a small event turn into a much worse situation on the roads. All roads are now back to normal around here and this is the normal rush hour. So no I'm not trying to make light of a tragic situation, but half the time lately these warnings put the fear of god into people. The alert should have said wait out the squall where you are. Once the line passes conditions will RAPIDLY improve. 

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3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Tell that to the people in multiple accidents around THIS area that were let out of work early because of the squall instead of being told to wait it out. People got that alert and literally fled to the doors making what was a small event turn into a much worse situation on the roads. All roads are now back to normal around here and this is the normal rush hour. So no I'm not trying to make light of a tragic situation, but half the time lately these warnings put the fear of god into people. The alert should have said wait out the squall where you are. Once the line passes conditions will RAPIDLY improve. 

That sounds like an employer problem and a problem for people who think it's smart to get an an alert like that and proceed to get into their car and drive. The NWS job is to warn people. They don't tell people to leave work early. 

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1 minute ago, NycStormChaser said:

That sounds like an employer problem and a problem for people who think it's smart to get an an alert like that and proceed to get into their car and drive. The NWS job is to warn people. They don't tell people to leave work early. 

While I agree their job is to keep people safe, they can improve the snow squall product. First that alert only goes out if the local area chooses too. NYC decided to make that weather alert a push notification to cell phones as an EAS alert. Second, with thunderstorm warnings they give very accurate timings as to the beginning and the approximate ending times as well. The same can be done for this weather product. Again, not trying to be a smart $ ss.

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6 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

While I agree their job is to keep people safe, they can improve the snow squall product. First that alert only goes out if the local area chooses too. NYC decided to make that weather alert a push notification to cell phones as an EAS alert. Second, with thunderstorm warnings they give very accurate timings as to the beginning and the approximate ending times as well. The same can be done for this weather product. Again, not trying to be a smart $ ss.

I agree with that 100%. That has been my issue with it since that small tornado hit college point, Queens over the summer. The damage path was maybe 10 blocks. Everyone in the 5 boroughs got the Tornado warning alert and freaked out. 

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26 minutes ago, TwcMan said:

Colder in Philadelphia than it is in Caribou atm.

Yeah but Caribou has a lot of snow OTG...but hey it looked like an all out snowstorm for ten mins or so on the Driscoll Bridge, even kinda scary. Can't get a decent snowstorm but we get this. Now if we can get that rate for maybe a few hours....

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3 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Tell that to the people in multiple accidents around THIS area that were let out of work early because of the squall instead of being told to wait it out. People got that alert and literally fled to the doors making what was a small event turn into a much worse situation on the roads. All roads are now back to normal around here and this is the normal rush hour. So no I'm not trying to make light of a tragic situation, but half the time lately these warnings put the fear of god into people. The alert should have said wait out the squall where you are. Once the line passes conditions will RAPIDLY improve. 

So, are you saying that we shouldn't warn people because they are too dumb to handle it?  I say screw the idiots and let the ones with brains have information they can use to make good decisions.  The SS Warning did indeed say to wait out the event until it had passed.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

So, are you saying that we shouldn't warn people because they are too dumb to handle it?  I say screw the idiots and let the ones with brains have information they can use to make good decisions.  The SS Warning did indeed say to wait out the event until it had passed.

 

 

Not saying that at all. The original snow squall warning did not have anything saying "wait out the event until it had passed" or anything like that. Here in our area it did not include timings either. That led to a lot of miscommunications just before the squall's arrival.  I noticed that eastern Mass and Maine did get that included with their warnings along with the timing of the arrival.

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In the wake of an Arctic front that brought a brief period of whiteout conditions to much of the region, bitterly cold air has sent the mercury tumbling into the single digits in a growing part of the area.

At 9 pm, the temperature in Central Park was just 9°. Earlier today, Chicago had a low temperature of -23°. That was that city's coldest reading sinc January 20, 1985 when the temperature fell to -27°. The high temperature was an icy -10°. That is only the fourth time on record that Chicago had a high temperature of -10° or lower.

The SOI was +3.02 today. While the MJO moves through Phase 6, the SOI could continue to retain positive values, as is currently the case. Afterward, it will likely return to negative values.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.503. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.230.

On January 29, the MJO was in Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.577 (RMM). That amplitude had fallen fairly sharply from the January 28-adjusted figure of 1.985.

The MJO will continue to advance through Phase 6 and then move into Phase 7 within perhaps 1-4 days. Upon reaching Phase 7, its amplitude could decline toward low amplitude values. It remains uncertain whether the MJO will reach Phase 8 before it either reaches low amplitude values or possibly reverses to Phase 6. The risks of a turn toward Phase 6 or a drop to low amplitude prior to any move to Phase 8 have increased somewhat in recent days.

Nevertheless, the MJO will likely remain at a high amplitude into at least the first week of February. For the month as a whole, the MJO will likely be at a high amplitude (1.000 or above) for a considerable part of February. The MJO will likely remain at a predominantly high amplitude during February.

Following the shot of extreme cold, a period of moderation appears likely during the middle of the first week of February. The operational ECMWF, GFS, and EPS forecast high temperatures in the 50s during the February 3-5 period in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Farther south, parts of the Middle Atlantic region could experience a high temperature of 60° or above. Colder air should follow by the end of that week. There is a possibility that a predominantly colder than normal regime could then lock in for at least a 2-3 week period.

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5 hours ago, shadowsintherain said:

Petering out now. Was a bit fun. I just thought the use of the word whiteout may have been a bit dramatic. Wind swept moderate snow for about 10 minutes. Now flurries here in Copiague. ‘‘Twas fun, and all we are going to get for a while. But whiteout? Definitely not. c108a60a1c3fe5049643b79e31678dcc.jpg



.

I can tell by how much less snow you have then I had on the uws that it was a different event there. We did have true whiteout conditions for a few min. I actually had to plow drifts between buildings. 

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