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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations


Rtd208

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3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

This year was basically a La Nina given the positive SOI most of the winter.  Only few days of negative where we had more of an El Nino look and that produced the couple of snow storms in the mid Atlantic and southeast

It was the hybrid nature of the pattern that was noteworthy. The pattern was essentially an overlapping El Niño and La Niña pattern. Notice the La Niña ridge north of Hawaii along with stronger PAC Jet. More of an El Niño +PNA in Canada. It may have been the inteference between the two patterns that caused such low Dec-Jan snowfall here. We missed a few good snowstorms due to the northern stream suppressing the weaker southern stream. We could have a had a better shot at snow if one of those features was able to dominate. Also notice that there was actually decent blocking in the North Atlantic. But there is only so much we can do with such a poor Pacific.

786CC0F2-C574-42CB-877D-E1E691B82795.gif.a4d1b895c6b81db1cdce178f9d668819.gif

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Just now, bluewave said:

It was the hybrid nature of the pattern that was noteworthy. The pattern was essentially an overlapping El Niño and La Niña pattern. Notice the La Niña ridge north of Hawaii along with stronger PAC Jet. More of an El Niño +PNA in Canada. It may have been the inteference between the two patterns that caused such low Dec-Jan snowfall here. We missed a few good snowstorms due to the northern stream suppressing the weaker southern stream. We could have a had a better shot at snow if one of those features was able to dominate. Also notice that there was actually decent blocking in the North Atlantic. But there is only so much we can do with such a poor Pacific.

786CC0F2-C574-42CB-877D-E1E691B82795.gif.a4d1b895c6b81db1cdce178f9d668819.gif

I blame the SSW as I stated on here back in November.  It's playing with fire look at the PV split to Eastern Europe and NW Alaska.  I believe that got the ball rolling with the strong MJO in unfavorable phases and the roaring pac jet configuration.  No SSW or one that split the PV to different areas of the globe, different winter.

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10 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

And for the record, every single meteorologist is going to have misses in a winter.   I personally had a terrible November.

 

But I do think this winter had way too many people hashing out ideas that they couldn't fully explain or only had a half understanding of.  And I noticed the always cold/snow crowd again got run over because of this (JB, DiMartino, etc.). 

 

Think the next couple of weeks turn stormy, but the window for an east coast system that can deliver meaningful snow is fairly tight.  Some things working for the east coast are a decent supply of cold air in Canada and an active storm track.  Think you can squeeze something out of it if we can get a true phase 8 in Feb with some +PNA help.  But, P1 Feb can actually be hostile on the PNA for us and make inland runners more likely. 

The window is fairly tight, and perhaps something will happen, but the reality is an overweight woman is warming up her vocal chords. A few people will insist that we have 6 weeks of opportunity for some snow, and that is true, but it might also be wet and cold or sunny and brisk. Overall a disappointing winter for snow weenies to date, but we get these kinds of winters.  

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39 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Not many "normal" days but averaged all together it becomes... average

The big story is how mild this January will finish with Arctic cold below 5 in NYC.This will be the warmest with the least snow since 1980.

NYC

Year......Jan low....Jan avg......Jan snowfall

2019..........4.........33.7......+1.3.....0.7”

2014..........4.........28.6.......-4.0......19.7”

2004...........1.........24.7.......-7.9......17.3”

2000..........3.........31.3........-1.5.......9.5”

1997..........4.........32.1........-0.5.......4.4”

1994..........-2........25.5.........-7.1......12.0”

1985..........-2........28.8.........-3.1......8.4”

1982...........0........26.1.........-6.5.....11.8”

 1981..........2.........26.2..........-6.4.....8.0”

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The big story is how mild this January will finish for such strong Arctic outbreaks to drop NYC below 5. This will be the warmest and least snow since 1980.

NYC

Year......Jan low....Jan avg......Jan snowfall

2019..........4.........33.8......+1.4......0.7”

2014..........4.........28.6.......-4.0......19.7”

2004...........1.........24.7.......-7.9......17.3”

2000..........3.........31.3........-1.5.......9.5”

1997..........4.........32.1........-0.5.......4.4”

1994..........-2........25.5.........-7.1......12.0”

1985..........-2........28.8.........-3.1......8.4”

1982...........0........26.1.........-6.5.....11.8”

 1981..........2.........26.2..........-6.4.....8.0”

A very odd month. Add in the next two days and it will finish near normal temperature wise, in addition 15 days above normal and 16 days below, and snowfall wise a total dud in the immediate NYC area. Places N & W did close to average snowfall wise this month.

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24 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

A very odd month. Add in the next two days and it will finish near normal temperature wise, in addition 15 days above normal and 16 days below, and snowfall wise a total dud in the immediate NYC area. Places N & W did close to average snowfall wise this month.

Yeah, it looks like NYC won’t be too far from the current 32.6 average. The odd part is the previous 15 years since 1950 with a monthly January low under 5 degrees averaged 27.4 degrees. The only other year to even reach freezing was 1997 at 32.1.

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1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

A very odd month. Add in the next two days and it will finish near normal temperature wise, in addition 15 days above normal and 16 days below, and snowfall wise a total dud in the immediate NYC area. Places N & W did close to average snowfall wise this month.

Some places... If I put the last storm down as the ~4" before the change to freezing rain then I'm at about 4.5" for the month. That doesn't speak to how difficult the conditions have been for a good number of days though and will be today and tomorrow. Hopefully I can pull a few inches this afternoon but I don't think there's even a remote chance to get to 10" for the month. :( 

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2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

A very odd month. Add in the next two days and it will finish near normal temperature wise, in addition 15 days above normal and 16 days below, and snowfall wise a total dud in the immediate NYC area. Places N & W did close to average snowfall wise this month.

After yesterdays snow I'm slightly above normal for snowfall.  25.6" on the season with average of 23.5"

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14 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Some places... If I put the last storm down as the ~4" before the change to freezing rain then I'm at about 4.5" for the month. That doesn't speak to how difficult the conditions have been for a good number of days though and will be today and tomorrow. Hopefully I can pull a few inches this afternoon but I don't think there's even a remote chance to get to 10" for the month. :( 

I only received 2.6 inches from this last debacle and am now at 7.9 for the month, definitely below normal snowfall wise for January.

Some towns in NW Orange County only 20 miles from me received 6-8 from yesterdays storm, with one report of 10, not sure I'm buying that one. It's just how this winter rolls.

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18 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I only received 2.6 inches from this last debacle and am now at 7.9 for the month, definitely below normal snowfall wise for January.

Some towns in NW Orange County only 20 miles from me received 6-8 from yesterdays storm, with one report of 10, not sure I'm buying that one. It's just how this winter rolls.

This is the first January since 2013 that the Scranton, PA area beat Islip for snowfall. 

2019.....AVP....10.6....ISP.....0.7

2018...............10.3...............22.0

2017................3.9................14.0

2016................4.5................24.8

2015................15.2..............30.2

2014................13.0...............25.2

2013.................5.9................3.3

 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

This is the first January since 2013 that the Scranton, PA area beat Islip for snowfall. 

2019.....AVP....10.6....ISP.....0.7

2018...............10.3...............22.0

2017................3.9................14.0

2016................4.5................24.8

2015................15.2..............30.2

2014................13.0...............25.2

2013.................5.9................3.3

 

Wow, it wasn't even close either. 

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

One of the most boring January's in quite some time.  Even the clunkers of 01-02 and 11-12 had snow in January...

Are there any other years where NYC went from mid November into early February with an inch or under of snow? I honestly can’t find one. Today definitely isn’t promising on the HRRR, NAM or RGEM

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Are there any other years where NYC went from mid November into early February with an inch or under of snow? I honestly can’t find one 

1918/19 0.6 inches Nov through January

1931/32 0.9 inches in Dec and January but 2.0 inches in November

1994/95 0.2 inches Nov-January, What a nightmare

1997/98 0.5 inches Nov-Jan, another nightmare.

We really paid dearly for 93/94 and 95/96 with some of the biggest clunkers ever in the 90's

and of course this year 0.7 in December and January and 6.4 in November

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6 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

1918/19 0.6 inches Nov through January

1931/32 0.9 inches in Dec and January but 2.0 inches in November

1994/95 0.2 inches Nov-January, What a nightmare

1997/98 0.5 inches Nov-Jan, another nightmare.

We really paid dearly for 93/94 and 95/96 with some of the biggest clunkers ever in the 90's

and of course this year 0.7 in December and January and 6.4 in November

Thank you. Yea, this winter going into February, definitely ranks right up there with 94-95, 97-98, 01-02 and 11-12 for NYC’s worst in the last 25 years

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40 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Thank you. Yea, this winter going into February, definitely ranks right up there with 94-95, 97-98, 01-02 and 11-12 for NYC’s worst in the last 25 years

This year, my neighborhood streets would have out performed those winters just on salt depth alone. As always ....

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1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

1918/19 0.6 inches Nov through January

1931/32 0.9 inches in Dec and January but 2.0 inches in November

1994/95 0.2 inches Nov-January, What a nightmare

1997/98 0.5 inches Nov-Jan, another nightmare.

We really paid dearly for 93/94 and 95/96 with some of the biggest clunkers ever in the 90's

and of course this year 0.7 in December and January and 6.4 in November

By this time next week 1994/1995 will be ahead of us with snowfall (that storm gave me a foot). That's crazy.

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