January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

[NEG NAO]

Just now, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

I never predict snow in the L/R ever.

 

I predict temps. 

You may be cold and dry , but the MJO is going into p8 and then p1 after a brief 5 or so day warm up.

So you may have a shot to snow while you are in those favored phases , but no one can tell you for sure.

 

So p8 , p1  and return to colder weather after the warm up yes I am predicting that 

ok that was the point of my previous post - BUT how long do you think the cold will last after the warmup ?

[SnowGoose69]

29 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

phase 8 is still a ways away the other teleconnections will have a say as to how or if this current pattern changes - no guarantees - so at this point its time to curb the enthusiasm for awhile...…...

It already appears the PNA is recersing back towards positive on some ensemble members.  This break may be a brief flip as a result of some lagged impact of the SSW.  I saw some discussion yesterday on Twitter from a few Mets who felt that’s all it is and by 2/10 we may very well be back to +PNA

[bluewave]

Root for the first more El Niño-like forcing of the season after the first week of February. This could finally allow the classic STJ pattern that undercuts the Niño +PNA  ridge longer range. While it’s outside the GEFS range, it does consolidate the Niño forcing near the Date Line for the first time this winter.

 

 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

ok that was the point of my previous post - BUT how long do you think the cold will last after the warmup ?

 

Great question man , if we get hung up in p8 and p1 then it`s prolonged , but we need to see where the sinking / convection goes after week 2. 

Jan 10 - Feb 20 was my BN period , I think that will work in the end / BUT I realize if it doesn`t snow you guys don`t GAF.

And I get it. 

 

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Root for the first more El Niño-like forcing of the season after the first week of February. This could finally allow the classic STJ pattern that undercuts the Niño +PNA  ridge longer range. While it’s outside the GEFS range, it does consolidate the Niño forcing near the Date Line for the first time this winter.

 

 

In the last few weeks models are quickly losing the El Niño for next winter.  Some of the BOM members evidently now show a La Niña.   That would really suck.  Just a month ago I was fairly confident we would at worst be neutral next winter 

[Ericjcrash]

2 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

With regards to Climate Change in respect to THIS winter in THIS sub forum:

Regions West of us above normal snow

Regions North of us normal to above normal snow

Regions South of us above normal snow

Philly-Boston is in a snow hole.

If we cry Climate change for every regional anomaly that we dont like, we distract from the real issues of climate change and give fodder to those that dont like CC facts.

 

How does the Climate Change discussion fit into a regional discussion when talking about cities in Maine this winter? Or Chicago?

If anything, the last few regional winters have demonstrated climate change extremes in a much more obvious way than this one has: extreme warmth and monster snow storms.

This winter features a cutter/hugger/suppressed pattern that seems entrenched.

The one particularly alarming thing about this winter is the early snow followed by nothing.

One has to wonder if Nov did not happen, would we be making a run at the lowest total ever in CPK?

 

 

 

 

 

 

It would definitely be a possibility. Friday could surprise I guess due to ratios if it could creep up a bit. Other than that there's nothing on horizon, and Friday has a very low probability.

[Brian5671]

20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

In the last few weeks models are quickly losing the El Niño for next winter.  Some of the BOM members evidently now show a La Niña.   That would really suck.  Just a month ago I was fairly confident we would at worst be neutral next winter 

A weak nina would be ok....moderate or strong and we'll be in trouble unless we get something freaky like '10-11

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

A weak nina would be ok....moderate or strong and we'll be in trouble unless we get something freaky like '10-11

We have seen this winter act like a Niña thus far. So unless it’s a strong Niña I tend to agree anything is possible. 

[MJO812]

55 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

so you are predicting the pattern will flip after the 5 day warm up and we will be going into a cold snowy pattern from Boston - Philly along the coast ?

It's very hard to predict snow but the pattern gets better after a brief warmup.

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It already appears the PNA is recersing back towards positive on some ensemble members.  This break may be a brief flip as a result of some lagged impact of the SSW.  I saw some discussion yesterday on Twitter from a few Mets who felt that’s all it is and by 2/10 we may very well be back to +PNA

Many meteorologist think the pattern will get better after the brief warmup. If that happens , winter might be salvageable.

[Gravity Wave]

12z CMC, FV3 and GFS now agree on the thaw being limited to 2 days: Monday and Tuesday. ICON doesn't have any thaw at all for the region. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, Snow88 said:

It's very hard to predict snow but the pattern gets better after a brief warmup.

LOL-thanks PB....

[Gravity Wave]

Also looking like a nice little squall line should come through with the arctic front around rush hour tomorrow. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

LOL-thanks PB....

Uh?

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Many meteorologist think the pattern will get better after the brief warmup. If that happens , winter might be salvageable.

Lets be real here this winter has been fooling everyone since November - most METS are just guessing...…...

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

In the last few weeks models are quickly losing the El Niño for next winter.  Some of the BOM members evidently now show a La Niña.   That would really suck.  Just a month ago I was fairly confident we would at worst be neutral next winter 

It will be interesting to see what happens after the spring forecast barrier. Looks like the +PDO is ramping back up after the dip in the summer and fall.

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Uh?

he stated all that above...LOL

[NYCweatherNOW]

15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Lets be real here this winter has been fooling everyone since November - most METS are just guessing...…...

Yup anyone’s guess going into February. The mjo does look like it wants to jump to phase 8 on the euro which would indicate cold and snow

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Yup anyone’s guess going into February. The mjo does look like it wants to jump to phase 8 on the euro which would indicate cold and snow

only problem there is that it looked like it was going to do that earlier this month and then went quickly into the COD and back to its favorite place this winter (4/5/6), if so maybe we could get a 2-3 week period of decent winter.    I had visions of 2 months of cold and snow with the Russian marching down the frozen Hudson, but alas it was not meant to be this year....

[NYCweatherNOW]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

only problem there is that it looked like it was going to do that earlier this month and then went quickly into the COD and back to its favorite place this winter (4/5/6), if so maybe we could get a 2-3 week period of decent winter.    I had visions of 2 months of cold and snow with the Russian marching down the frozen Hudson, but alas it was not meant to be this year....

You know what I thought the same thing but my father always told me that this year the only winter will get is February and early March so I’m going to hope he’s right. He always said January will escape the snow. He’s been right the past few years I should have listened to him. Let’s see though we’ll talk about this in 6 weeks

[Gravity Wave]

Euro has a coastal at the end of its run after the mini thaw. Hopefully a sign of things to come.

[SnowGoose69]

Here is your NWS JFK TAF tomorrow evening....they are buying the snow squall potential

KJFK 291857Z 2919/3024 12010KT P6SM BKN020 OVC050
  FM292100 16011G20KT 5SM -RA BR OVC010
  FM300200 20012G20KT 5SM -RASN BR OVC010
  FM300300 23012G21KT 5SM -RASN BR OVC010
  FM300500 28014G21KT 2SM -SN BR BKN010
  FM300600 29014G21KT P6SM BKN250
  FM301600 25015G24KT P6SM SCT250
  FM301900 25015G24KT P6SM SCT250
  PROB30 3020/3022 32020G35KT 1/4SM +SN SQ BKN012

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Euro has a coastal at the end of its run after the mini thaw. Hopefully a sign of things to come.

It seems to believe in its MJO forecast then. 

[donsutherland1]

Extreme cold is now advancing eastward.

Single-digit temperatures are very likely in the big cities of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas, including Boston, Baltimore, New York, and Washington, DC.

The SOI was +3.30 today. While the MJO moves through Phase 6, the SOI could continue to retain positive values, as is currently the case.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.341. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.209.

On January 28, the MJO was in Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.984 (RMM). That amplitude had risen slightly from the January 27-adjusted figure of 1.935.

The MJO will continue to advance through Phase 6 and then move into Phase 7 within perhaps 2-5 days. Upon reaching Phase 7, its amplitude could decline toward low amplitude values. It remains uncertain whether the MJO will reach Phase 8 before it either reaches low amplitude values or possibly reverses to Phase 6. The risks of either outcome remain relatively balanced according to both the latest guidance and the historical data.

Regardless, the MJO will likely remain at a high amplitude into at least the first week of February. For the month as a whole, the MJO will likely be at a high amplitude (1.000 or above) for a considerable part of February. The MJO will likely remain at a predominantly high amplitude during February.

The passage of an Arctic cold front could continue to result in some precipitation tonight into tomorrow. A small accumulation is possible with most areas picking up a coating to 1" snow. Northwestern New Jersey, northeastern Pennsylvania, and New York City's northern and western suburbs have the potential to pick up a few inches. Already, accumulations include 2.6" at Binghamton and 2.2" at Scranton. As the Arctic air rushes in tomorrow, there is the potential for a heavy snow squall, especially during the afternoon hours.

Following the shot of extreme cold, a period of moderation appears likely during the middle of the first week of February. The operational ECMWF and EPS are particularly aggressive with the warming. Both are forecasting the temperature to crest in the lower and middle 50s sometime during the February 3-5 period. Should strong blocking develop near the beginning of the month, that blocking could blunt the extent of that warming. Colder air should follow by the end of that week.

[Stormlover74]

Something interesting I noticed. If NYC doesn't drop below 30 by midnight there will no days with highs in the 20s for the month but there will be 2 days with highs in the teens. Seems unusual

[NittanyWx]

8 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Lets be real here this winter has been fooling everyone since November - most METS are just guessing...…...

Not the case for all.   I again remind everyone of the echo chamber.

 

What I hope people learned this year is that there is no such thing as a rule of thumb when it comes to mid and long range weather forecasts.  This winter challenged a lot of preconceived ideas and half thoughts, and I hope people learned from it.

 

In the very least, I hope people learned that SSW's are complex processes in their own right, and that's before you try to figure out if/when the warming breaks through the tropopause.  And I hope people learned that these processes take time before potentially influence the pattern, and even then it doesn't mean much in figuring out how it impacts sensible weather spatially. 

 

And also, guys, need to ditch the Nino/Nina = x for our backyard when it comes to snow.  Theres no statistically signicant correlation.

[NittanyWx]

And for the record, every single meteorologist is going to have misses in a winter.   I personally had a terrible November.

 

But I do think this winter had way too many people hashing out ideas that they couldn't fully explain or only had a half understanding of.  And I noticed the always cold/snow crowd again got run over because of this (JB, DiMartino, etc.). 

 

Think the next couple of weeks turn stormy, but the window for an east coast system that can deliver meaningful snow is fairly tight.  Some things working for the east coast are a decent supply of cold air in Canada and an active storm track.  Think you can squeeze something out of it if we can get a true phase 8 in Feb with some +PNA help.  But, P1 Feb can actually be hostile on the PNA for us and make inland runners more likely. 

[CIK62]

Last 2 days of Jan. are averaging 13degs., or 20degs. BN.

Month to date is +1.3[33.7].     Should end Jan. at -0.1[32.3].   Surprise!  Used 7/25 for today.

All 8 days averaging 31degs., or 2degs. BN.     First week of Feb. could be +8*

EURO is No Snow for next 10 days.   GEFS is just 50/50 for 4" of Snow by Feb.15.

Going to euthanize these snow predictors, unless they start showing something in line with MJO/Teleconnections.   GEFS has had 60+, 16-Day Periods to show the 0.7" we have actually received and never once showed 0" for the next 16 days.   They walk last mile manana.

21.7* here at 6am.

[qg_omega]

19 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

In the last few weeks models are quickly losing the El Niño for next winter.  Some of the BOM members evidently now show a La Niña.   That would really suck.  Just a month ago I was fairly confident we would at worst be neutral next winter 

This year was basically a La Nina given the positive SOI most of the winter.  Only few days of negative where we had more of an El Nino look and that produced the couple of snow storms in the mid Atlantic and southeast

[qg_omega]

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Extreme cold is now advancing eastward.

Single-digit temperatures are very likely in the big cities of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas, including Boston, Baltimore, New York, and Washington, DC.

The SOI was +3.30 today. While the MJO moves through Phase 6, the SOI could continue to retain positive values, as is currently the case.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.341. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.209.

On January 28, the MJO was in Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.984 (RMM). That amplitude had risen slightly from the January 27-adjusted figure of 1.935.

The MJO will continue to advance through Phase 6 and then move into Phase 7 within perhaps 2-5 days. Upon reaching Phase 7, its amplitude could decline toward low amplitude values. It remains uncertain whether the MJO will reach Phase 8 before it either reaches low amplitude values or possibly reverses to Phase 6. The risks of either outcome remain relatively balanced according to both the latest guidance and the historical data.

Regardless, the MJO will likely remain at a high amplitude into at least the first week of February. For the month as a whole, the MJO will likely be at a high amplitude (1.000 or above) for a considerable part of February. The MJO will likely remain at a predominantly high amplitude during February.

The passage of an Arctic cold front could continue to result in some precipitation tonight into tomorrow. A small accumulation is possible with most areas picking up a coating to 1" snow. Northwestern New Jersey, northeastern Pennsylvania, and New York City's northern and western suburbs have the potential to pick up a few inches. Already, accumulations include 2.6" at Binghamton and 2.2" at Scranton. As the Arctic air rushes in tomorrow, there is the potential for a heavy snow squall, especially during the afternoon hours.

Following the shot of extreme cold, a period of moderation appears likely during the middle of the first week of February. The operational ECMWF and EPS are particularly aggressive with the warming. Both are forecasting the temperature to crest in the lower and middle 50s sometime during the February 3-5 period. Should strong blocking develop near the beginning of the month, that blocking could blunt the extent of that warming. Colder air should follow by the end of that week.

It's extreme historic cold for the Midwest, not so much for the East Coast.  I'm not expecting many records to fall.