January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

BNL almost made it to triple digits in 95-96 with 90.75.

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

Yes I think that would have matched one of the 1800s winters where both NYC and Philly probably got 100 inches of snow and constant snowcover November thru March.

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Up here we did a little better with 11.5 in March 93, 12 in Feb 95 before the 27 in Jan 96.

The last 4 winters of the 90s were all below average snowfall. Only 93/94 and 95/96 were above here. 92/93 was average.

 

thats how NYC ended up averaging less than 20 inches  and no snow days for us kids back then

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This is why we get our biggest snowstorms in February and March

and sometimes in December too, the wavelengths should be short then also.  Remember Boxing Day and Dec 1947!

 

 

[bluewave]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

yes like in the 80s when it was much colder yet much less snow lol

 

we dont want extreme cold - thats bad for big snowstorms.

The ESRL just updated for the 12/1 to 1/25 period. The Pacific Jet has been as hostile as it gets for big snowstorms so far. Hopefully, we can see some improvements between now and the end of the season.

[LibertyBell]

Thanks Chris, was the cause of this all the warm water in the West Pac?

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Chris, was the cause of this all the warm water in the West Pac?

The recent studies I posted linked the stronger MJO activity to the warmer SST departures just west of the Date Line. But I am not sure why the MJO phases were so slanted toward 4-6 as opposed to 8-2.Someone will probably end up doing a detailed study. But notice the greatest SST departures this winter so far are just west of the Date Line.

 

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The recent studies I posted linked the stronger MJO activity to the warmer SST departures just west of the Date Line. But I am not sure why the MJO phases were so slanted toward 4-6 as opposed to 8-2.Someone will probably end up doing a detailed study. But notice the greatest SST departures this winter so far are just west of the Date Line.

 

This will be known as the winter of (MJO) 4-5-6 for sure.   

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

This will be known as the winter of (MJO) 4-5-6 for sure.   

It would be great if there was a model that could predict the dominant winter MJO phases during the late fall. We would see a big improvement in seasonal forecast skill.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It would be great if there was a model that could predict the dominant winter MJO phases during the late fall. We would see a big improvement in seasonal forecast skill.

Do we need more probes in the oceans or the air above the oceans?

[the_other_guy]

With regards to Climate Change in respect to THIS winter in THIS sub forum:

Regions West of us above normal snow

Regions North of us normal to above normal snow

Regions South of us above normal snow

Philly-Boston is in a snow hole.

If we cry Climate change for every regional anomaly that we dont like, we distract from the real issues of climate change and give fodder to those that dont like CC facts.

 

How does the Climate Change discussion fit into a regional discussion when talking about cities in Maine this winter? Or Chicago?

If anything, the last few regional winters have demonstrated climate change extremes in a much more obvious way than this one has: extreme warmth and monster snow storms.

This winter features a cutter/hugger/suppressed pattern that seems entrenched.

The one particularly alarming thing about this winter is the early snow followed by nothing.

One has to wonder if Nov did not happen, would we be making a run at the lowest total ever in CPK?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

With regards to Climate Change in respect to THIS winter in THIS sub forum:

Regions West of us above normal snow

Regions North of us normal to above normal snow

Regions South of us above normal snow

Philly-Boston is in a snow hole.

If we cry Climate change for every regional anomaly that we dont like, we distract from the real issues of climate change and give fodder to those that dont like CC facts.

 

How does the Climate Change discussion fit into a regional discussion when talking about cities in Maine this winter? Or Chicago?

If anything, the last few regional winters have demonstrated climate change extremes in a much more obvious way than this one has: extreme warmth and monster snow storms.

This winter features a cutter/hugger/suppressed pattern that seems entrenched.

The one particularly alarming thing about this winter is the early snow followed by nothing.

One has to wonder if Nov did not happen, would we be making a run at the lowest total ever in CPK?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Conversely, one has to wonder if the pattern itself caused November's snowstorm to happen, therefore if the pattern was different, the November snowstorm wouldn't have happened and we might have had more snow in DJF!

Other than that, remember that the forecast for that storm was blown, the air was colder than progged, if there wasn't as much cold air around it would have been an inch of slop followed by rain.

 

The best way to associate this with CC is that this winter has followed the exact same script as an 80s winter, but 4-6 degrees warmer.  In the 80s we had similar weather to this winter but it was colder.

 

There's also this:

 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/120F-Shadeand-Water-Australias-Record-Melting-Summer-Intensifies?cm_ven=hp-slot-2

 

All-time heat records are dissolving over large parts of Australia in what could end up as the nation’s hottest summer on record. An especially fierce heat spike swept across the nation’s south and east late this week, pushing wildfire risk to extreme levels.

At least 28 locations hit all-time highs on Thursday. In Adelaide, the capital of South Australia, the official West Terrace station rocketed to 46.6°C (115.9°F)—the highest temperature ever recorded at the designated reporting sites for any of Australia’s state or territorial capitals. About 200 miles away, the city of Port Augusta hit its all-time high on Thursday with a blistering 49.5°C (121.1°F). That’s unnervingly close to the nation’s all-time high of 50.7°C (123.3°F), notched at Oodnadatta, South Australia, on January 2, 1960.

 

The Port Augusta reading is exceptional in another way: it’s the highest temperature ever recorded at a coastal location in the Southern Hemisphere, according to independent weather researcher Maximiliano Herrera. This includes oceans, seas, gulfs, and lakes, Herrera said. Port August sits near the head of Spencer Gulf, north of Adelaide.

Just a day earlier, on Wednesday, the Red Rocks Point station—which faces Antarctica from the Nullarbor coast of Western Australia—hit 49.1°C (120.4°C). According to Blair Trewin (AU Bureau of Meteorology), the Red Rocks Point station is located only 70 meters (230 feet) from the water. “This is the highest temperature recorded anywhere in the world at such a close distance from an open ocean,” Herrera said. He noted that the sea surface temperature at the time was 22-23°C (72-73°F), quite chilly when compared to the sizzling atmosphere.

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Do we need more probes in the oceans or the air above the oceans?

Specific MJO phases may just be too difficult to model into the longer ranges. 

[dWave]

17 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Anybody else looking at that -12F for a high temp this week in Chicago?

We are barely getting the edge of that airmass.

Incredibly cold stuff out there. a low of -22 (!) windchills -40..

I don't want any part of that. MLK day here was more than cold enough for me.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, dWave said:

Incredibly cold stuff out there. a low of -22 (!) windchills -40..

I don't want any part of that. MLK day here was more than cold enough for me.

You'll probably get the same kind of cold again.

[NycStormChaser]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I saw the same fiery sunrise!

My sunrise was pretty dull up in Newburg but there's certainly a lot of ice. 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

This was always going into p8

 

[mikem81]

Just now, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

This was always going into p8

 

The EURO is really the only model with a favorable MJO evlolution right now. The others have it stuck in phase 6 for a bit

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

The Euro will correct even stronger into p8.

 

This is why I posted last week that the RIMM plots were wrong by killing it before 8.

 

In fact the MJO will go into 8 and then 1 

 

 

 

 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

Just now, mikem81 said:

The EURO is really the only model with a favorable MJO evlolution right now. The others have it stuck in phase 6 for a bit

 

Ignore the RIMM plots. 

[mikem81]

Just now, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

Ignore the RIMM plots. 

Which models have the best MJO verification scores so far?

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

5 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Which models have the best MJO verification scores so far?

The GFS is too amped ( like in early Jan )  the EURO bias is to run into the null ( but is better IMO ) . 

The VP 200 anomalies off Mike Ventrice MJO site has worked the best .

It caught the MJO back in early Jan  ( you will see that on the 1st 5 pages in this thread ) 

And it is catching it again. 

[Snowshack]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

With regards to Climate Change in respect to THIS winter in THIS sub forum:

Regions West of us above normal snow

Regions North of us normal to above normal snow

Regions South of us above normal snow

Philly-Boston is in a snow hole.

If we cry Climate change for every regional anomaly that we dont like, we distract from the real issues of climate change and give fodder to those that dont like CC facts.

 

How does the Climate Change discussion fit into a regional discussion when talking about cities in Maine this winter? Or Chicago?

If anything, the last few regional winters have demonstrated climate change extremes in a much more obvious way than this one has: extreme warmth and monster snow storms.

This winter features a cutter/hugger/suppressed pattern that seems entrenched.

The one particularly alarming thing about this winter is the early snow followed by nothing.

One has to wonder if Nov did not happen, would we be making a run at the lowest total ever in CPK?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agree - that has been an issue in the larger discussion.  Pointing to a couple of snowless months in one particular area and suggesting CC is the culprit is just as bad as some of the deniers using a big snowstorm to suggest there is no change occurring.     Then again, most people only care about or pay attention to the weather in their backyard so its easy to be frustrated and think snowless here is snowless everywhere. 

Spent the last three days in the central Adirondacks...nights below zero, 2-3ft of snowpack, secondary roads remain snowcovered - we're just on the wrong side of the gradient this year.

 

 

 

 

[Gravity Wave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Conversely, one has to wonder if the pattern itself caused November's snowstorm to happen, therefore if the pattern was different, the November snowstorm wouldn't have happened and we might have had more snow in DJF!

Other than that, remember that the forecast for that storm was blown, the air was colder than progged, if there wasn't as much cold air around it would have been an inch of slop followed by rain.

 

The best way to associate this with CC is that this winter has followed the exact same script as an 80s winter, but 4-6 degrees warmer.  In the 80s we had similar weather to this winter but it was colder.

 

There's also this:

 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/120F-Shadeand-Water-Australias-Record-Melting-Summer-Intensifies?cm_ven=hp-slot-2

 

All-time heat records are dissolving over large parts of Australia in what could end up as the nation’s hottest summer on record. An especially fierce heat spike swept across the nation’s south and east late this week, pushing wildfire risk to extreme levels.

At least 28 locations hit all-time highs on Thursday. In Adelaide, the capital of South Australia, the official West Terrace station rocketed to 46.6°C (115.9°F)—the highest temperature ever recorded at the designated reporting sites for any of Australia’s state or territorial capitals. About 200 miles away, the city of Port Augusta hit its all-time high on Thursday with a blistering 49.5°C (121.1°F). That’s unnervingly close to the nation’s all-time high of 50.7°C (123.3°F), notched at Oodnadatta, South Australia, on January 2, 1960.

 

The Port Augusta reading is exceptional in another way: it’s the highest temperature ever recorded at a coastal location in the Southern Hemisphere, according to independent weather researcher Maximiliano Herrera. This includes oceans, seas, gulfs, and lakes, Herrera said. Port August sits near the head of Spencer Gulf, north of Adelaide.

Just a day earlier, on Wednesday, the Red Rocks Point station—which faces Antarctica from the Nullarbor coast of Western Australia—hit 49.1°C (120.4°C). According to Blair Trewin (AU Bureau of Meteorology), the Red Rocks Point station is located only 70 meters (230 feet) from the water. “This is the highest temperature recorded anywhere in the world at such a close distance from an open ocean,” Herrera said. He noted that the sea surface temperature at the time was 22-23°C (72-73°F), quite chilly when compared to the sizzling atmosphere.

Is anyone blaming CC for this winter in particular? Temp departures haven't been the problem, storm tracks have. 

[ILoveWinter]

Some flurries in Manhattan 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said:

Is anyone blaming CC for this winter in particular? Temp departures haven't been the problem, storm tracks have. 

It's not blame but a comparison to seasons like this from the past.  And not about snowfall but about how the temperatures have been different with similar AO indices comparing the 80s to this decade.

 

I think going forward one must make allowances like this when making LR outlooks based on old analogs.

 

 

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

This was always going into p8

 

phase 8 is still a ways away the other teleconnections will have a say as to how or if this current pattern changes - no guarantees - so at this point its time to curb the enthusiasm for awhile...…...

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

phase 8 is still a ways away the other teleconnections will have a say as to how or if this current pattern changes - no guarantees - so at this point its time to curb the enthusiasm for awhile...…...

 

I told you last week that we were going into p8 , you responded are you betting against the EURO ? 

Now the Euro with those awful RIMM plots which failed in early Jan have failed again see p8 .

 

There is a 5 day break and that`s it, I think it`s time you pay attention to the guidance. 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

Here are your next 15 days 

 

 

 

Here`s your break 

 

 

 

 

 

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

I told you last week that we were going into p8 , you responded are you betting against the EURO ? 

Now the Euro with those awful RIMM plots which failed in early Jan have failed again see p8 .

 

There is a 5 day break and that`s it, I think it`s time you pay attention to the guidance. 

so you are predicting the pattern will flip after the 5 day warm up and we will be going into a cold snowy pattern from Boston - Philly along the coast ?

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

so you are predicting the pattern will flip after the 5 day warm up and we will be going into a cold snowy pattern from Boston - philly along the coast ?

 

I never predict snow in the L/R ever.

 

I predict temps. 

You may be cold and dry , but the MJO is going into p8 and then p1 after a brief 5 or so day warm up.

So you may have a shot to snow while you are in those favored phases , but no one can tell you for sure.

 

So p8 , p1  and return to colder weather after the warm up yes I am predicting that