MJO812 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 47 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: It’s going to mostly snow. It’s definitely colder than modeled and it seems that no models ever gets the dynamic cooling and evaporative cooling. Remember when the precipitation moves in its going to start as snow flurries. If we get enough instability from the low pressure, building up about 100 south of Boston we could have a mostly mix to snow event. Regardless it’s going to be interesting. This could easily overachieve, or not. I agree 850s are very cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said: It’s going to mostly snow. It’s definitely colder than modeled and it seems that no models ever gets the dynamic cooling and evaporative cooling. Remember when the precipitation moves in its going to start as snow flurries. If we get enough instability from the low pressure, building up about 100 south of Boston we could have a mostly mix to snow event. Regardless it’s going to be interesting. This could easily overachieve, or not. This doesn't apply to inland, but the morning flurries on LI implied by the NAM would basically be snizzle / junk snow on the low level southeast flow off the ocean. If correct, the boundary won't be dry enough for much evaporative cooling, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 0z models continue to be unimpressive with the warmup. FV3 and CMC have a Monday-Tuesday event, while GFS extends to Wednesday. Monday is upper 30s-low 40s, Tuesday is low-mid 50s, and GFS has mid 50s again for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Eps disagrees with weeklies again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Last 3 days of Jan. averaging 25degs., or 8degs. BN. Month to date is +1.3[33.7]. Should end Jan. at +0.4[32.8]. All 8 days are averaging 29degs., or 4degs. BN. EURO is 1" of Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS is 50/50 chance of at least 7" of Snow by Feb. 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 3 hours ago, Ji said: Eps disagrees with weeklies again Euro looks alot better than previous runs moving forward. Weeklies weren't bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 9:49 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Even the 80s which everyone constantly brings up as an example of bad winters had snow events. Not blockbusters but snow events. If we throw out the November storm what we have seen this winter is unprecedentedly bad. I still think the warmup is is much more muted then modeled and we do see a few snow events at the coast before we throw in the towel for good the 80s were also 4-5 degrees colder lol, we averaged in the teens for snowfall so we definitely should get somewhere around there and possibly into the 20-25 inch range if we get that one big snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 9:26 AM, EastonSN+ said: This is the NYC snowfall by month. Only ratter was 88/89 winter. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwid8dnilI7gAhWNhOAKHY9jDPMQFjAAegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw3FEGQwI8KNSBMHqqnxH0gI No 10 inch snowfalls though and trust me 89-90 (which would be considered part of the 80s since 1990 is considered the last year of the 80s) was a ratter. Also check out the early 90s, 90-91 and 91-92. Part of the same climate group. Average snowfall during the 80s was the least ever and I believe the 70s was the second least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 9:35 AM, bluewave said: Even during the 11-12 winter, we had 1 snow event in the 4-12” range across the area on 1-21.So it would be really extreme if we don’t at least do the same this year. The 07-08 winter also managed to sneak one in on 2-22. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSOKX&e=201201212209 https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSOKX&e=200802222244 Yes even our worst winters have those, even if its pre or post winter. The question is, do we count Nov 15th as that one event lol? In 1997-98 we had our one event after winter officially ended with 5.0" During official winter we only had 0.5" When was our one decent snowfall in 2001-02? How much was that? Since I can remember, our less than double digit seasons (1997-98, 2001-02, 2011-12) all had one event in the 3-5 inch realm. Our worst seasons didn't have any 6 inch snowfalls- and there were quite a few of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 10:15 AM, NutleyBlizzard said: On another note, this is a message to all the so called climate change theorists... just because we're experiencing a dead ratter winter, does not mean this is the new norm from here on out. I have a family member who believes in this assumption. We have been incredibly fortunate coming off a string of above normal winters. We were due for a bad one at some point. If anything climate change has been increasing snowfalls here while lowering them across the DC area, this was expected. During the 80s our temps were 4-5 degrees lower while snowfall was half of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 9:16 AM, EastonSN+ said: At least in the 1980s we did OK with snowfall (is 50% of average) this year is in another level with 97 98 and 2001 2002. we did pretty badly with snowfall in the 80s since it was our least snowy decade and after Feb 1983 there were no 10 inch snowstorms until March 1993 which changed to rain, and if you're a purist, the first real 10 inch snowstorm after Feb 1983 was Jan 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yes even our worst winters have those, even if its pre or post winter. The question is, do we count Nov 15th as that one event lol? In 1997-98 we had our one event after winter officially ended with 5.0" During official winter we only had 0.5" When was our one decent snowfall in 2001-02? How much was that? Since I can remember, our less than double digit seasons (1997-98, 2001-02, 2011-12) all had one event in the 3-5 inch realm. Our worst seasons didn't have any 6 inch snowfalls- and there were quite a few of those. Even during the winter portion of the 01-02 snowfall season we had a 3-6 event across the area on January 19th. It was the 6th warmest January on record at nearly 40 degrees and over +7. That was a classic example of sneaking in a snow in an unfavorable pattern. The February 2017 snowstorm in a one of the warmest Februarues was an even better snowstorm in a challenging pattern. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSOKX&e=200201202135 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Even during the winter portion of the 01-02 snowfall season we had a 3-6 event across the area on January 19th. It was the 6th warmest January on record at nearly 40 degrees and over +7. That was a classic example of sneaking in a snow in an unfavorable pattern. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSOKX&e=200201202135 I remember that happened in Feb 08- that was actually a nice event with around 8 inches here in an SWFE that only changed to drizzle at the end, not the rain we were supposed to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, LibertyBell said: I remember that happened in Feb 08- that was actually a nice event with around 8 inches here in an SWFE that only changed to drizzle at the end, not the rain we were supposed to get. Right. That was after everyone threw in the towel for the winter. It turned out to be a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Right. That was after everyone threw in the towel for the winter. It turned out to be a nice event. I wonder if people were frustrated in March 1998 because we came so close to a record low snowfall that season until that last event sneaked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I wonder if people were frustrated in March 1998 because we came so close to a record low snowfall that season until that last event sneaked in. Just goes to show how hard it is to get a full season with no snow. Even the most hostile seasons to snowfall produced something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Just goes to show how hard it is to get a full season with no snow. Even the most hostile seasons to snowfall produced something. Easier for Philly which only got a T in 1997-98! But ironically, their biggest snowfall season (2009-10) is bigger than ours (1995-96). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Easier for Philly which only got a T in 1997-98! But ironically, their biggest snowfall season (2009-10) is bigger than ours (1995-96). BNL almost made it to triple digits in 95-96 with 90.75. https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 42 minutes ago, bluewave said: Even during the winter portion of the 01-02 snowfall season we had a 3-6 event across the area on January 19th. It was the 6th warmest January on record at nearly 40 degrees and over +7. That was a classic example of sneaking in a snow in an unfavorable pattern. The February 2017 snowstorm in a one of the warmest Februarues was an even better snowstorm in a challenging pattern. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSOKX&e=200201202135 simply amazing how inept we have been at getting a snow event in this less hostile pattern (as compared to other years). One would have to think we score something before March concludes. Its fascinating though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: Just goes to show how hard it is to get a full season with no snow. Even the most hostile seasons to snowfall produced something. I equate it to going through spring and summer without a single thunderstorm, extremely hard to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I remember that happened in Feb 08- that was actually a nice event with around 8 inches here in an SWFE that only changed to drizzle at the end, not the rain we were supposed to get. 9.5 here. The shining star of that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 57 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: we did pretty badly with snowfall in the 80s since it was our least snowy decade and after Feb 1983 there were no 10 inch snowstorms until March 1993 which changed to rain, and if you're a purist, the first real 10 inch snowstorm after Feb 1983 was Jan 1996. Up here we did a little better with 11.5 in March 93, 12 in Feb 95 before the 27 in Jan 96. The last 4 winters of the 90s were all below average snowfall. Only 93/94 and 95/96 were above here. 92/93 was average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: Last 3 days of Jan. averaging 25degs., or 8degs. BN. Month to date is +1.3[33.7]. Should end Jan. at +0.4[32.8]. All 8 days are averaging 29degs., or 4degs. BN. EURO is 1" of Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS is 50/50 chance of at least 7" of Snow by Feb. 14. I am riding the EURO from here on out this winter. Been far more accurate w/r/t snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: simply amazing how inept we have been at getting a snow event in this less hostile pattern (as compared to other years). One would have to think we score something before March concludes. Its fascinating though. An unfavorable Pacific is often more challenging than a general lack of cold temperature departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: An unfavorable Pacific is often more challenging than a general lack of cold temperature departures. I have heard that "wavelengths shorten" in Feb and March which is better for our area. What does this mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 They should have issued a Salt Storm warning yesterday. I got caught in a Heavy Salt Storm late last night coming home from Oceanside. Nothing on Long Island then once I hit the Queens side of the Cross Island, I see about an inch of salt on the road then I had an unfortunate clash with the salt truck that laid down the salt so I went through a Saltout as I neared it and immediately pulled back as it pelted my car at an alarming rate and stayed back until my exit neared. Seriously, WTF is wrong with them? Between everybody flooding the supermarkets 2 weeks ago for the impending rainstorm as if the apocalypse was upon us and these salt demons the last few months, I feel like society has gone mad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I equate it to going through spring and summer without a single thunderstorm, extremely hard to do. Or going through an entire summer without a 90 degree day, thats never happened here on the south shore of Nassau county. The least number of 90 degree days we ever had was either 2 or 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I have heard that "wavelengths shorten" in Feb and March which is better for our area. What does this mean? it means you can have a trough on both coasts and a ridge in between- the renowned Omega block! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: An unfavorable Pacific is often more challenging than a general lack of cold temperature departures. yes like in the 80s when it was much colder yet much less snow lol we dont want extreme cold - thats bad for big snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, LibertyBell said: it means you can have a trough on both coasts and a ridge in between- the renowned Omega block! This is why we get our biggest snowstorms in February and March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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