January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

[RU848789]

0Z Euro is a nice improvement going from <1/2" for the 94 corridor from TTN to NYC at 12Z to 1-2" at 0Z with the 3" line running from about Allentown to Danbury.  Then into the icebox, as expected with temps in the low single digits for a few nights (and below 0F in much of the area) and highs below 32F through 2/2.  

But then the bridge jumping will begin in earnest, as temps hit 50F on 2/3 and 60F for most on 2/4 and 2/5 at the end of the run (I can't paste from weather.us).  Hopefully a temporary heatup, but this wasn't expected at all, from everything I've read for weeks.  

[CIK62]

Last 5 days of Jan. averaging 30degs., or 2degs. BN.

Month to date is +1.2[33.6].    Should end Jan.  at +0.6[33.0].

All 8 days averaging 29degs., or 3degs. BN.

EURO is 1" of Snow for the next 10 days.    GEFS is 50/50 chance of at least 5" by Feb. 12th.

CFS likes 2/12 for the big one.    The CFS likes a lot of things too---like pulling your leg when there is no ice to slip on.  lol.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

0Z Euro is a nice improvement going from <1/2" for the 94 corridor from TTN to NYC at 12Z to 1-2" at 0Z with the 3" line running from about Allentown to Danbury.  Then into the icebox, as expected with temps in the low single digits for a few nights (and below 0F in much of the area) and highs below 32F through 2/2.  

But then the bridge jumping will begin in earnest, as temps hit 50F on 2/3 and 60F for most on 2/4 and 2/5 at the end of the run (I can't paste from weather.us).  Hopefully a temporary heatup, but this wasn't expected at all, from everything I've read for weeks.  

Everyone is talking early spring in the Philly threads so I guess it's expected now.

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

0Z Euro is a nice improvement going from <1/2" for the 94 corridor from TTN to NYC at 12Z to 1-2" at 0Z with the 3" line running from about Allentown to Danbury.  Then into the icebox, as expected with temps in the low single digits for a few nights (and below 0F in much of the area) and highs below 32F through 2/2.  

But then the bridge jumping will begin in earnest, as temps hit 50F on 2/3 and 60F for most on 2/4 and 2/5 at the end of the run (I can't paste from weather.us).  Hopefully a temporary heatup, but this wasn't expected at all, from everything I've read for weeks.  

This pattern has become really stable. Warm up ahead of a storm that hugs or cuts followed by Arctic outbreak. Rinse...repeat...

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

This pattern has become really stable. Warm up ahead of a storm that hugs or cuts followed by Arctic outbreak. Rinse...repeat...

Exactly what I have been saying, persistence and stability has produced this pattern rather than some odd streak of bad luck.

If we do get a mild February as the models are now showing we can always hope for what happened last winter to happen again- an excellent March/April for snow!  Last winter so far has been light years better than this one has.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This pattern has become really stable. Warm up ahead of a storm that hugs or cuts followed by Arctic outbreak. Rinse...repeat...

You were alive in the 80s and early 90s outside of the super el nino of 1983 this is usually what happened.  Maybe the same mechanism is happening this year, I'd like to see a nice analysis of it post-season, something other than a streak of "bad luck" lol.  It would help us understand what happened back then too.

 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Exactly what I have been saying, persistence and stability has produced this pattern rather than some odd streak of bad luck.

If we do get a mild February as the models are now showing we can always hope for what happened last winter to happen again- an excellent March/April for snow!  Last winter so far has been light years better than this one has.

Our 3 storm track options since the fall have been cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream. We are seeing another suppressed southern stream storm  on Monday followed by the hugger then Arctic outbreak. Temps moderate several days later. Our only pattern change after January 10th has been stronger Arctic outbreaks following the storms. 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Our 3 storm track options since the fall have been cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream. We are seeing another suppressed southern stream storm  on Monday followed by the hugger then Arctic outbreak. Temps moderate several days later. Our only pattern change after January 10th has been stronger Arctic outbreaks following the storms. 

I do have a feeling this early February Arctic outbreak will be the last one of the year that will cause temps in the single digits or lower- do you feel the same way?

 

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I do have a feeling this early February Arctic outbreak will be the last one of the year that will cause temps in the single digits or lower- do you feel the same way?

 

At least for a while. A more -PNA La Niña-like pattern takes over during the first week of February. We then have to wait and see what happens after that. The -PNA interval looks like a MJO 6 pattern.

 

 

[TriPol]

Is any part of this country experiencing El Nino conditions?

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Is any part of this country experiencing El Nino conditions?

The suppressed storms that hit the south and lower mid atlantic like DC are suggestive of el nino conditions.

There's been more snow in DC and Baltimore along with the piedmont than there has been in NYC or Boston.

 

[LibertyBell]

Chris, I know we talked about how 1996 never reached 5 or below in the NYC area.  I dont know if we will ever reach double digits below zero again like we did in December (of all months lol) in 1917 or February 1934, probably not we are not the upper Midwest after all, speaking of which I see the Minnesota state record of -60 in Tower, MN was set in February 1996!  Was that the lowest temp ever recorded east of the Rockies?  I think so!  1995-96 was underrated for its historic cold, especially in February for places in the Upper Midwest.  That rather heroically brought winter back for us after a 3 week hiatus during the extended January thaw and all the flooding that happened after the big blizzard.  What a multifaceted, multiregional winter that was!  And even onwards into Spring with frequent snows!

 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, I know we talked about how 1996 never reached 5 or below in the NYC area.  I dont know if we will ever reach double digits below zero again like we did in December (of all months lol) in 1917 or February 1934, probably not we are not the upper Midwest after all, speaking of which I see the Minnesota state record of -60 in Tower, MN was set in February 1996!  Was that the lowest temp ever recorded east of the Rockies?  I think so!  1995-96 was underrated for its historic cold, especially in February for places in the Upper Midwest.  That rather heroically brought winter back for us after a 3 week hiatus during the extended January thaw and all the flooding that happened after the big blizzard.  What a multifaceted, multiregional winter that was!  And even onwards into Spring with frequent snows!

 

Most of the great Arctic outbreaks from the late 70’s to the mid-90’s came on W or NW winds. The best NYC was able to do was -2. The 1917 and 1934 Arctic outbreaks came on a colder northerly flow for NYC. It’s been very difficult to get 1050 MB highs over the Great Lakes with the strongest Arctic outbreaks since 1934. That allowed a direct discharge of Arctic air down the Hudson Valley with little or no modification.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Most of the great Arctic outbreaks from the late 70’s to the mid-90’s came on W or NW winds. The best NYC was able to do was -2. The 1917 and 1934 Arctic outbreaks came on a colder northerly flow for NYC. It’s been very difficult to get 1050 MB highs over the Great Lakes with the strongest Arctic outbreaks since 1934. That allowed a direct discharge of Arctic air down the Hudson Valley with little or no modification.

 

Has there been any kind of simulation showing what the temps might be in NYC with a synoptic repeat of Dec 1917 or Feb 1934?  With current climate conditions that is- back then the Arctic was much colder so the source region delivered much colder air down to us.

I think the last time we went below -2 was in the 1940s,  getting colder than -2 in our new climate for NYC may be nearly impossible too.

According to biologists, the Anthropocene began in 1950......

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Has there been any kind of simulation showing what the temps might be in NYC with a synoptic repeat of Dec 1917 or Feb 1934?  With current climate conditions that is- back then the Arctic was much colder so the source region delivered much colder air down to us.

Not that I know of. But I think it could have happened in the 70’s to 90’s if there was a strong enough northerly flow event. Since several other locations set their all-time coldest records like Chicago during that period.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Not that I know of. But I think it could have happened in the 70’s to 90’s if there was a strong enough northerly flow event. Since several other locations set their all-time coldest records like Chicago during that period.

Yes even the 80s were far colder (I remember Don showed that for similar AO indices, the 80s were 4-5 degrees colder than our current climate.)

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

 

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes even the 80s were far colder (I remember Don showed that for similar AO indices, the 80s were 4-5 degrees colder than our current climate.)

At least in the 1980s we did OK with snowfall (is 50% of average) this year is in another level with 97 98 and 2001 2002.

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

At least in the 1980s we did OK with snowfall (is 50% of average) this year is in another level with 97 98 and 2001 2002.

Not down my way. Snow was hard to come by. I can remember only 4 storms of note in the whole decade.  And two were in 1982. One in 83, one in 87. There were some piddly events in between.

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Exactly what I have been saying, persistence and stability has produced this pattern rather than some odd streak of bad luck.

If we do get a mild February as the models are now showing we can always hope for what happened last winter to happen again- an excellent March/April for snow!  Last winter so far has been light years better than this one has.

Again, not everywhere. Out my way we had only one decent storm in March, the last one. The immediate metro area around the city isn't conducive to big snows in March.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

Not down my way. Snow was hard to come by. I can remember only 4 storms of note in the whole decade.  And two were in 1982. One in 83, one in 87. There were some piddly events in between.

This is the NYC snowfall by month. Only ratter was 88/89 winter. 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;source=web&amp;rct=j&amp;url=https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf&amp;ved=2ahUKEwid8dnilI7gAhWNhOAKHY9jDPMQFjAAegQIARAB&amp;usg=AOvVaw3FEGQwI8KNSBMHqqnxH0gI

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Exactly what I have been saying, persistence and stability has produced this pattern rather than some odd streak of bad luck.

If we do get a mild February as the models are now showing we can always hope for what happened last winter to happen again- an excellent March/April for snow!  Last winter so far has been light years better than this one has.

Even during the 11-12 winter, we had 1 snow event in the 4-12” range across the area on 1-21.So it would be really extreme if we don’t at least do the same this year. The 07-08 winter also managed to sneak one in on 2-22.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSOKX&e=201201212209

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSOKX&e=200802222244

[SnoSki14]

Just now, bluewave said:

Even during the 11-12 winter, we had 1 snow event in the 4-12” range across the area on 1-21.So it would be really extreme if we don’t at least do the same this year. The 07-08 winter also managed to sneak one in on 2-22.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSOKX&e=201201212209

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSOKX&e=200802222244

I'm pretty confident we see almost zero additional snowfall for Feb & March. Pattern is locked in, stable, and we know what to expect. 

If we're lucky maybe we'll add 1-3" from dustings and light coatings but I do think this winter, snow wise, is pretty much over.

[Yanksfan]

OK I've seen enough. Time to throw in the towel for any hopes of a cold/snowy pattern settling in. The atmosphere just won't allow it this year. You can thank the MJO and lack of blocking for that. I'm already looking forward to next winter where we can reshuffle the deck and hope for a better hand. Having said all that I still expect a rogue winter storm to occur at some point this winter.

[the_other_guy]

No offense, the experts on this forum kept telling us about snow and cold for xmas week until the Saturday before xmas.

Please, with all respect to the experts and the patterns that are locked in, You don’t have the ability to make a zero snowfall February and March prediction during the last week of January.

If bad patterns and AN temps meant no snow, NYC would have had a few snowless winters over the past few years.

 

Again, no offense meant...but let’s get real with LR forecasting...especially being in uncharted territory with Pacific waters

 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

You were alive in the 80s and early 90s outside of the super el nino of 1983 this is usually what happened.  Maybe the same mechanism is happening this year, I'd like to see a nice analysis of it post-season, something other than a streak of "bad luck" lol.  It would help us understand what happened back then too.

 

Even the 80s which everyone constantly brings up as an example of bad winters had snow events. Not blockbusters but snow events. If we throw out the November storm what we have seen this winter is unprecedentedly bad.

I still think the warmup is is much more muted then modeled and we do see a few snow events at the coast before we throw in the towel for good 

[weatherpruf]

24 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is the NYC snowfall by month. Only ratter was 88/89 winter. 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;source=web&amp;rct=j&amp;url=https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf&amp;ved=2ahUKEwid8dnilI7gAhWNhOAKHY9jDPMQFjAAegQIARAB&amp;usg=AOvVaw3FEGQwI8KNSBMHqqnxH0gI

 

I'm south of the city. There are many times CP had more snow than me.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm pretty confident we see almost zero additional snowfall for Feb & March. Pattern is locked in, stable, and we know what to expect. 

If we're lucky maybe we'll add 1-3" from dustings and light coatings but I do think this winter, snow wise, is pretty much over.

That would be historic since there have only been 4 years in NYC with less than 4” after December 1st. We may see a pattern where everyone cancels winter and then a 4+ or 6+ snowstorm sneaks up on us before the season is over. 

1	2019-04-20	0.7	84
2	1973-04-20	2.8	0
3	1932-04-20	3.3	0
4	2002-04-20	3.5	0
5	1919-04-20	3.8

 

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Even the 80s which everyone constantly brings up as an example of bad winters has snow events. Not blockbusters but snow events. If we throw out the November storm what we have seen this winter is unprecedentedly bad.

I still think the warmup is is much more muted then modeled and we do see a few snow events at the coast before we throw in the towel for good 

I sure hope so. A number of the 80's events were too small to be noteworthy. So I tend to forget them. Schools were open, and I had to go to work. I think I may have had to shovel the driveway in 1985 once. I seem to remember it. The ones I remember were blockbusters, ( by 80's standards ) April 82, Feb 83, Jan 87. Really that was about it; Jan 82 was memorable because of the plane going down in DC.

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

No offense, the experts on this forum kept telling us about snow and cold for xmas week until the Saturday before xmas.

Please, with all respect to the experts and the patterns that are locked in, You don’t have the ability to make a zero snowfall February and March prediction during the last week of January.

If bad patterns and AN temps meant no snow, NYC would have had a few snowless winters over the past few years.

 

Again, no offense meant...but let’s get real with LR forecasting...especially being in uncharted territory with Pacific waters

 

 

I think a lot of us, myself included, tend to forget the smaller events, or remember years like 97 and 98. Some of those years featured some events NIMBY, but had significant snow in the city or other areas in the metro region.