January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

[JustinRP37]

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

it's summertime in australia so of course the sst are going to be very warm....

They are showing anomalies, not sea surface temps... so the average is already warm, but these are above even the norm.

[Eduardo]

Too much living and dying by every model run in here.  The MJO is dictating everybody and everything this year—volatile LR guidance included.  And because it’s behaving so erratically thanks to the current PAC SST configuration, so too will the guidance.

Likely outcome IMO: Given the current SST landscape, just as happened earlier this month and back in Dec, we will make one more brief run through P8 and hopefully skirt P1 before the MJO reverts back to its crumby phases. During that short window, we will have a chance, possibly at something big.  Hopefully, bad luck won’t shut us out again.

 

Not a great winter for snow lovers so far, but definitely quite a learning experience.  Huge impact on how I view ENSO.

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

it's summertime in australia so of course the sst are going to be very warm....

Ummm that’s an anomaly above average map, so yea, they are wayyy above normal lmaooo

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

it's summertime in australia so of course the sst are going to be very warm....

He’s taking about the anomalies chief

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Too much living and dying by every model run in here.  The MJO is dictating everybody and everything this year—volatile LR guidance included.  And because it’s behaving so erratically thanks to the current PAC SST configuration, so too will the guidance.

Likely outcome IMO: Given the current SST landscape, just as happened earlier this month and back in Dec, we will make one more brief run through P8 and hopefully skirt P1 before the MJO reverts back to its crumby phases. During that short window, we will have a chance, possibly at something big.  Hopefully, bad luck won’t shut us out again.

 

Not a great winter for snow lovers so far, but definitely quite a learning experience.  Huge impact on how I view ENSO.

Good post.  The MJO has definitely ruled the roost and been unpredictable all season.  Same thing happened last feb when it took a surprise turn to 4-5-6 and we rained all month 

[MJO812]

The MJO looks better this morning compared to previous runs. I think we will have chances coming up.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Yep the SSTS are on fire out that way, sustaining the positive feedback process and beefing up the latent and sensible heat releases through strong convection and evaporation 

 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

and here we thought that higher SST in the Pacific were a good thing because that meant a stronger el nino.  Looks like climate change is rearing its head again and creating a new pattern- we are in uncharted waters (quite literally!)

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL066984/full

Finally, we reexamine the relationship between SST anomalies and MJO activity based on the historical record. Previously, Hendon et al. [1999] showed enhanced MJO activity, both globally and locally in the western/central Pacific, favored by positive SST anomalies in the central Pacific equatorial region around 160°E–160°W during November–March (their Figure 10). 

https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/6/2/45/htm

Abstract

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the largest contributor to intraseasonal weather variations in the tropics. It is associated with a broad region of enhanced rainfall that moves slowly eastward over the Indian and western Pacific Oceans, which has global impacts on atmospheric circulations. A number of recent observational and modeling studies have suggested that the MJO is becoming stronger as the oceans warm. In this study, the author explores the sensitivity of the MJO to ocean warming in a recently developed Lagrangian Atmospheric Model (LAM), which has been shown to simulate robust and realistic MJOs in previous work. Numerical simulations suggest that ocean warming leads to more frequent and intense MJOs that propagate more rapidly and cover a larger region of the tropics. The strengthening of the MJO is attributed to enhanced surface fluxes of moisture coming from the warmer ocean waters. While the LAM simulations have a number of limitations owing to idealized physical parameterizations and the use of prescribed sea surface temperatures, they provide additional evidence that the MJO will strengthen if the oceans continue to warm, and they also shed light on the mechanism of this strengthening.

 

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL066984/full

Finally, we reexamine the relationship between SST anomalies and MJO activity based on the historical record. Previously, Hendon et al. [1999] showed enhanced MJO activity, both globally and locally in the western/central Pacific, favored by positive SST anomalies in the central Pacific equatorial region around 160°E–160°W during November–March (their Figure 10). 

https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/6/2/45/htm

Abstract

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the largest contributor to intraseasonal weather variations in the tropics. It is associated with a broad region of enhanced rainfall that moves slowly eastward over the Indian and western Pacific Oceans, which has global impacts on atmospheric circulations. A number of recent observational and modeling studies have suggested that the MJO is becoming stronger as the oceans warm. In this study, the author explores the sensitivity of the MJO to ocean warming in a recently developed Lagrangian Atmospheric Model (LAM), which has been shown to simulate robust and realistic MJOs in previous work. Numerical simulations suggest that ocean warming leads to more frequent and intense MJOs that propagate more rapidly and cover a larger region of the tropics. The strengthening of the MJO is attributed to enhanced surface fluxes of moisture coming from the warmer ocean waters. While the LAM simulations have a number of limitations owing to idealized physical parameterizations and the use of prescribed sea surface temperatures, they provide additional evidence that the MJO will strengthen if the oceans continue to warm, and they also shed light on the mechanism of this strengthening.

 

This is important work, and thanks for posting the abstract for nonscientists like me. My understanding, correct me please if I'm wrong, is the MJO is getting stronger due warming ocean temps, and this has global impacts, which they don't spell out in the abstract, but I think there are implications, ones that don't favor a lot of snowfall in these parts. Maybe.

[SnoSki14]

30 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The MJO looks better this morning compared to previous runs. I think we will have chances coming up.

It's a high amplitude MJO so there's a good chance it'll get to phase 8 by mid February. 

I think we'll get a 2-3 week window where something can still happen after Feb 10. I'm not expecting a repeat of last March though Nino's in the past have been known to produce late winter. 

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

This is important work, and thanks for posting the abstract for nonscientists like me. My understanding, correct me please if I'm wrong, is the MJO is getting stronger due warming ocean temps, and this has global impacts, which they don't spell out in the abstract, but I think there are implications, ones that don't favor a lot of snowfall in these parts. Maybe.

Changes in the MJO can modulate our snowy vs non-snowy intervals along with other factors. Just look at the volatility last winter....950 mb BM blizzard and record cold in early January....historic 80 degree warmth February....record snowfall March  into April. Adding to the level of forecast complexity is the relationship with MJO and SSW’s. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I think there has been way way too much focus on the MJO this winter. While it is a factor there are many reasons for our lack of snow. I think the biggest has been the wrong placement of the PNA ridge out west. This leads to the trough access in the east being in an unfavorable position. And we end up with rain event, cold, rain event and repeat. Had these two factors been different we would be looking out our windows at feet of snow.

[RU848789]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It's 2 (Feb 1994 and Jan 2014) but also the fact that having the rain/snow line cut through the area has been a persistent feature this winter.  If it was a winter like 2003-04 that would be a different story.  By the way this would also mean the rain/snow line would cut across or north of Central NJ

 

 

Whether it's 1 or 2 (I was referring to DonS's post about Feb 2014 (storms with 12" or more with a +NAO) is immaterial to the statistical point - 2 is nowhere near enough statistical power to make a conclusion that the coast can't get 12" of snow without sleet mixing in in a +NAO, especially when not too far away has done it twice in recent times.  Not trying to pick on you - just trying to illustrate a general point: many posters cite very low frequency events (<10 is definitely very low frequency; a decent rule of thumb is 30 or more events with nearly identical conditions for statistical relevance) as "proof" that x or y can or cannot happen and it's a fallacy, statistically speaking.  

[JustinRP37]

19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think there has been way way too much focus on the MJO this winter. While it is a factor there are many reasons for our lack of snow. I think the biggest has been the wrong placement of the PNA ridge out west. This leads to the trough access in the east being in an unfavorable position. And we end up with rain event, cold, rain event and repeat. Had these two factors been different we would be looking out our windows at feet of snow.

Each year I feel like there is an over-emphasis on something or other. A few years ago it was the Siberian snow cover index (which turned out to be horrible). Then it was SSW events, this year it is the MJO. There is not 'single' driver of the weather or a pattern. We are human and build models. The models are only as good as our current knowledge. The problem is the environment is not static, things are constantly changing, so while model X may work one year, it may be terrible in a different situation. I try to convey this to my ecology classes when I get the question "well scientists were wrong." It is more like new data or technology allowed us to see things a little differently. That is why I am not a huge fan of analogs either. 

[495weatherguy]

2 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Each year I feel like there is an over-emphasis on something or other. A few years ago it was the Siberian snow cover index (which turned out to be horrible). Then it was SSW events, this year it is the MJO. There is not 'single' driver of the weather or a pattern. We are human and build models. The models are only as good as our current knowledge. The problem is the environment is not static, things are constantly changing, so while model X may work one year, it may be terrible in a different situation. I try to convey this to my ecology classes when I get the question "well scientists were wrong." It is more like new data or technology allowed us to see things a little differently. That is why I am not a huge fan of analogs either. 

Valid points

things are constantly changing/evolving

[weathermedic]

41 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think there has been way way too much focus on the MJO this winter. While it is a factor there are many reasons for our lack of snow. I think the biggest has been the wrong placement of the PNA ridge out west. This leads to the trough access in the east being in an unfavorable position. And we end up with rain event, cold, rain event and repeat. Had these two factors been different we would be looking out our windows at feet of snow.

Let’s not forget about the years when things were “EPO driven”

[nzucker]

1 minute ago, weathermedic said:

Let’s not forget about the years when things were “EPO driven”

Well they were: 13-14 and 14-15 were driven by a highly favorable PAC

 

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Each year I feel like there is an over-emphasis on something or other. A few years ago it was the Siberian snow cover index (which turned out to be horrible). Then it was SSW events, this year it is the MJO. There is not 'single' driver of the weather or a pattern. We are human and build models. The models are only as good as our current knowledge. The problem is the environment is not static, things are constantly changing, so while model X may work one year, it may be terrible in a different situation. I try to convey this to my ecology classes when I get the question "well scientists were wrong." It is more like new data or technology allowed us to see things a little differently. That is why I am not a huge fan of analogs either. 

It’s the interaction between important tropical forcing mechanisms like ENSO and MJO that counts for our sensible weather. What you call over-emphasis is just the discovery of how these interactions are playing out in real time. It’s very difficult to issue a winter forecast in the fall and be able to anticipate how these interactions will play out. Add our warming climate and more extreme weather to the mix. These factors result in  very low skill forecasts past the 6-10 day range. It’s like each winter during the 2010’s is a new learning experience for us. That’s why pre 2010’s analogs often fall short. Each winter presents new combinations of extremes that often leave people shaking their heads. Look at the early January 2018 benchmark 950 mb blizzard and record cold. Then the rapid shift to record 80 degree warmth in February. Followed by the historic late season snowy run. And that is just one example of many new combinations we have seen during this decade.

[uncle W]

On ‎1‎/‎25‎/‎2019 at 10:34 AM, TriPol said:

Have we ever gotten 12" of more with a +NAO?

the day the storm started...in some cases the nao was rising from a negative period...

12/21/1959...very positive...localized 12" storm in Central Park

3/3/1960

1/19/1961

2/6/1967

1/19/1978

2/19/1979

2/11/1994...very positive...

2/16/2003

2/13/2014

[uncle W]

31 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the day the storm started...in some cases the nao was rising from a negative period...

12/21/1959...very positive...localized 12" storm in Central Park

3/3/1960

1/19/1961

2/6/1967

1/19/1978

2/19/1979

2/11/1994...very positive...

2/16/2003

2/13/2014

snowstorm...date......AO......PNA......NAO......Enso/MEI....

12" 03/18/1956....0.470....0.186.....-0.225.....La Nina
12" 03/20/1958...-2.522....0.067.....-0.830.....El Nino
14" 12/21/1959....1.266....0.114......1.032.....Neutral-
15" 03/03/1960...-1.265...-0.834......0.249.....Neutral-
15" 12/11/1960...-0.343....1.527.....-0.316.....Neutral-
10" 01/19/1961...-1.506....1.587......0.392.....Neutral-
18" 02/03/1961....0.621....0.489.....-0.126.....Neutral-
13" 01/12/1964....0.385....0.654.....-1.180.....Weak El Nino
15" 02/06/1967....1.180....0.732......0.230.....Weak La Nina

10" 03/21/1967....2.537...-0.387......1.142.....Weak La Nina
15" 02/09/1969...-3.114...-0.325......0.044.....Weak El Nino
14" 01/19/1978...-0.347....0.262......0.230.....Weak El Nino
18" 02/06/1978...-3.014....1.188.....-0.093.....Weak El Nino
13" 02/19/1979...-0.697...-0.042......0.254.....Neutral+

10" 04/06/1982....0.172...-0.799.....-0.982.....Neutral-
18" 02/11/1983...-1.806....0.845.....-0.567.....El Nino
10" 03/13/1993....0.764...-0.179......0.472.....Weak El Nino

09" 02/08/1994....0.296...-0.454.....-0.483.....Neutral+
13" 02/11/1994...-0.862...-0.589......0.927.....Neutral+
11" 02/04/1995....1.429....1.604......0.437.....El Nino
20" 01/08/1996...-1.200....0.447.....-0.392.....Weak La Nina
11" 02/16/1996....0.163...-0.421......0.534.....Weak La Nina
12" 12/30/2000...-2.354....1.075.....-0.537.....Weak La Nina
20" 02/16/2003....0.128....0.681......0.836.....El Nino
14" 12/05/2003....0.265....0.784.....-0.197.....Neutral+
10" 01/25/2004...-1.686....0.164.....-0.541.....Neutral+
14" 01/25/2005....0.356....1.098.....-0.035.....El Nino
27" 02/11/2006...-0.156....1.658......0.136.....Neutral-
11" 12/19/2009...-3.413....0.549.....-1.833.....El Nino
10" 02/09/2010...-4.266....0.622.....-1.136.....El Nino
21" 02/25/2010...-3.818....0.087.....-0.219.....El Nino
20" 12/26/2010...-2.631...-0.284.....-0.834.....La Nina
19" 01/26/2011...-1.683....1.233.....-0.142.....La Nina

11" 02/09/2013...-0.700....0.403......0.219.....neutral-

11" 01/21/2014...-1.843....1.172......0.137.....neutral-

10" 02/13/2014....0.182...-1.097......0.690.....neutral-

10" 01/26/2015....1.661....0.311......1.075.....El Nino

27" 01/23/2016...-0.085....1.687......0.082.....El Nino

09" 02/09/2017...-1.769....0.690......1.070.....La Nina

10" 01/04/2018...-1.506....0.872......0.725.....La Nina

[TwcMan]

Amazing that NYC was able to get 11” in Feb 96 with all of the teleconnections being unfavorable. It just wanted to snow that year.

[uncle W]

4 minutes ago, TwcMan said:

Amazing that NYC was able to get 11” in Feb 96 with all of the teleconnections being unfavorable. It just wanted to snow that year.

that storm would be the biggest of the winter for most years....it gets lost because of the January blizzard...

[MJO812]

12z gefs has the Nao,Ao and epo becoming favorable. That would bold well moving forward.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

12z gefs has the Nao,Ao and epo becoming favorable. That would bold well moving forward.

The EPS is more or less fully at odds with its own weeklies D9-15 now.  It’s most likely going to bust on that pattern although it probably will moderate somewhat for a week in there 

[weatherpruf]

13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The EPS is more or less fully at odds with its own weeklies D9-15 now.  It’s most likely going to bust on that pattern although it probably will moderate somewhat for a week in there 

For those of us who don't know what that means, please explain.

[weatherpruf]

19 minutes ago, uncle W said:

that storm would be the biggest of the winter for most years....it gets lost because of the January blizzard...

And it also wasn't 11 in every spot; I think I had about 4-5. The biggest storm I saw that year other than Jan 96 was the Dec 95 event. 

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, TwcMan said:

Amazing that NYC was able to get 11” in Feb 96 with all of the teleconnections being unfavorable. It just wanted to snow that year.

Many times storm tracks stay favorable following extended periods of favorable teleconnections. So the teleconnections can look unfavorable at storm time while the storm track remains locked in from the previous favorable period. Conversely, teleconnections can become more positive while storm tracks remain locked into previous unfavorable periods. This is how we can snow in unfavorable looking patterns and miss storms in favorable looking ones. 

[donsutherland1]

Through January 25, season-to-date snowfall figures include:

 

Albany: 28.6"/2.9" below normal
Baltimore: 9.2"/0.7" above normal
Bangor: 42.5"/10.1" above normal
Binghamton: 54.9"/12.2" above normal
Boston: 1.8"/19.0" below normal (3rd lowest on record to date)
Bridgeport: 7.5"/4.5" below normal
Burlington: 59.6"/19.3" above normal
Caribou: 101.9"/46.5" above normal (highest on record to date)
Chicago: 24.5"/6.3" above normal
Concord: 28.3"/3.5" below normal
Detroit: 13.7"/7.6" below normal
Harrisburg: 14.7"/2.3" above normal
Hartford: 15.0"/4.3" below normal
Islip: 5.0"/6.3" below normal
New York City: 7.1"/3.5" below normal
Newark: 6.8"/5.2" below normal
Philadelphia: 6.3"/2.2" below normal
Pittsburgh: 15.4"/4.5" below normal
Portland: 34.5"/3.6" above normal
Providence: 7.9"/9.5" below normal
Raleigh: 8.9"/5.9" above normal
Richmond: 13.0"/7.7" above normal
Scranton: 19.5"/2.5" below normal
Washington, DC: 12.7"/5.7" above normal
Worcester: 16.2"/14.7" below normal

The SOI was -6.35 today. This is the first time in 10 days that the SOI has been negative. The SOI could fall to -10.00 or below in coming days.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.433. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.180.

On January 25, the MJO moved into Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.803 (RMM). That amplitude had declined from the January 24-adjusted figure of 1.912.

The MJO will very likely gradually advance through Phase 6 and then move into Phase 7 within perhaps 5-8 days. Upon reaching Phase 7, its amplitude could decline toward low amplitude values. It remains uncertain whether the MJO will reach Phase 8 before it reaches low amplitude values. The GEFS favors such an outcome.

The historical data is more ambiguous. Since 1974, there have been 12 cases when the MJO reached Phase 5 with an Amplitude of 1.000 to 2.499 in the January 16-31 period. All of those cases proceeded directly to Phase 6 and 9 (75%) proceeded directly to Phase 7. The historical risks are balanced between the MJO's reversing back to Phase 6 or continuing to Phase 8. In any case, the MJO will likely remain at a high amplitude through the remainder of January and into the first week of February.

With the MJO's likely pushing toward or reaching Phase 7 toward the start of February, the AO will very likely see predominantly negative values for a sustained period of time. Strong to severe blocking could develop in the closing days of January.

Brutal cold could spread from the Midwest into the Northeast during next week. Readings in Chicago could fall to their lowest level in 25 years. Single-digit temperatures are possible in the big cities of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas.

A storm or frontal passage could bring some snow during the January 29-31 period with the Arctic cold front that brings severe cold to the East. Prospects for a more meaningful snowstorm may increase during the first week of February.

Finally, in coming days, the ENSO Region anomalies will become available. The nature of the ongoing weak El Niño event could have longer-term implications.

[RedSky]

Howell, NJ .80" ground zero and the new Death Valley 

Pick a point on the compass from here it's snowed more lol

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

14 hours ago, Ji said:

On 1/25/2019 at 7:16 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Probably somewhat afterward. The guidance has tended to rush the development of a NAO- this winter.

In 10 days euro has a blowtorch.

I'm aware of it. It may be due to how it is handling the MJO. A period of moderation is plausible, but we'll see what happens.

[donsutherland1]

13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It (EPS) actually starts to get really bad around day 8 but yea the pattern turns into a disaster in the 1st week of February. GEFS and GEPS also show this. At that point we are less than 4 weeks away from met spring. I have serious doubts as to whether we ever go into a sustained cold and snow pattern before winter’s end now

I suspect we'll know pretty soon. The actual evolution of the MJO will provide some insight. The ENSO region developments will provide additional insight.