MJO812 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 8 ball or ouiji board ? And I will use whatever I want and other METS are using what I am. He's trying to help you. No need to get mad lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: I agree without blocking and the 50/50 low don't expect any SECS or MECS we will just continue with the same pattern...…..Its good just inland and in the middle of the country though. We have seen snow in bad patterns before but this pattern isn't bad at all. The COD and 7-8 ( especially 8 ) are good for us. Earthlight , isotherm and Don expects blocking to develop as we head into february. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 The warming is spreading from 60 E towards 80 E , and correlated to Jan 5- 11 RIMM plots in p8. So I expect that we get to p8 in early FEB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: I never get mad - I don't need anyones help - anyways to also post some other weather related info - JB in his morning video is going with the MJO graphic I displayed and thinks its going through the COD into phase 2 People use different mjo plots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: We have seen snow in bad patterns before but this pattern isn't bad at all. The COD and 7-8 ( especially 8 ) are good for us. Earthlight , isotherm and Don expects blocking to develop as we head into february. Sure you can get snow in bad patterns, but it depends on what kind of snow you are looking for. You can get a short duration SWFE that lasts like 6-8 hours and gives 6-8 inches and exits just before changing to rain or changes to sleet at the end, or you can get a fast moving Miller B that drops snow for a few hours and then changes to rain or mixed precip (or vice versa.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: But you just said the NAO is staying positive …??? I think he means AO is going to tank so we will have blocking just not NAO blocking lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 The 6z GEFS and 0z EPS take the NAO negative after the 30th , not sure what Anthony is looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1993-94 and 2012-13 are the winters to be looking at, both featured decent late season patterns even though all the connectors weren't lined up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The 6z GEFS and 0z EPS take the NAO negative after the 30th , not sure what Anthony is looking at. With the AO tanking and if the NAO goes negative in early February, the pattern will change like the flip of a switch. Hopefully it lasts for a few to several weeks. Both 1993-94 and 2012-13 delivered in February and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, LibertyBell said: With the AO tanking and if the NAO goes negative in early February, the pattern will change like the flip of a switch. I'm a bit skeptical of the AO tanking-forecast going back a month showed a negative position, yet the reality is neutral/slightly negative.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: You want to see the VP anomalies consolidate near the Date Line for it to look like a traditional February El Niño. The MJO passing through 6-7 is stretching the forcing west toward Indonesia to start February. The GFS is made public. But it’s hard to find the Euro which is best with MJO and tropical forcing in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: I'm a bit skeptical of the AO tanking-forecast going back a month showed a negative position, yet the reality is neutral/slightly negative.... The EPS / GEFS are - 3 to- 4 SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The 6z GEFS and 0z EPS take the NAO negative after the 30th , not sure what Anthony is looking at. Hi. Where can I harvest the GEFS and EPS Tels? I can only find the below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The EPS / GEFS are - 3 to- 4 SD good to see the EPS there-I could care less what the GEFS says...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Hi. Where can I harvest the GEFS and EPS Tels? I can only find the below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Have we ever gotten 12" of more with a +NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 17 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The 6z GEFS and 0z EPS take the NAO negative after the 30th , not sure what Anthony is looking at. Ncep tellies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, TriPol said: Have we ever gotten 12" of more with a +NAO? In the last 10-15 years we have several times. If you go back before that just about never. The Pacific was so favorable since 2000 the Atlantic often didn’t matter. I’m not sure of any 12 inch plus events prior to 2000 that occurred with a +NAO outside of 2/11/94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 20 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Whoa. Why is there a ground stop at LaGuardia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, TriPol said: Whoa. Why is there a ground stop at LaGuardia? Government shutdown, a lot of air traffic controllers called out sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Latest NAO stays positive PNA rises AO tanks Potentially quite promising. A number of February cases with strong-severe AO blocking have been snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Potentially quite promising. A number of February cases with strong-severe AO blocking have been snowy. And the NAO will go negative come February 1, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 42 minutes ago, TriPol said: Have we ever gotten 12" of more with a +NAO? February 12-13, 2014 is one such case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: February 12-13, 2014 is one such case. Yes it can be done but in both scenarios mentioned (Feb 1994 and Feb 2014) there was a change to sleet or rain at the coast. So the answer is, it can be done in Manhattan but not if you live in southern Queens or southern Brooklyn or the south shore of Long Island. But we live in a humid subtropical climate now anyway ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yes it can be done but in both scenarios mentioned (Feb 1994 and Feb 2014) there was a change to sleet or rain at the coast. So the answer is, it can be done in Manhattan but not if you live in southern Queens or southern Brooklyn or the south shore of Long Island. But we live in a humid subtropical climate now anyway ;-) You can't draw that conclusion from a sample size of 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 45 minutes ago, RU848789 said: You can't draw that conclusion from a sample size of 1. You could make the case for general climatology. But obviously there are a million factors that lead to the rain snow line setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Euro actually is rather interesting.. the southern low at hr96 is way north of other models. And then there is a 985 bomb over ct at hr 120 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 10 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Euro actually is rather interesting.. the southern low at hr96 is way north of other models. And then there is a 985 bomb over ct at hr 120 lol Few inches for D.C. Barely anything except light snow for NYC and Boston . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Few inches for D.C. Barely anything except light snow for NYC and Boston . Much better than what all the other models are showing. Hr 120 was close to something big for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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