January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

[purduewx80]

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

now the American models aren't even downloading data - Government Shutdown to blame ? --this from tropical tidbits :

Jan 23: NOAA data downloads are very slow today, resulting in model delays. I'm working to retrieve the data.

It may just be that his data feed is affected. This happens a lot, but there are typically folks who remedy it in short order. The US models are running fine and on time, otherwise. 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

In other words, indexes based on previous atmospheric conditions may not be as useful as they used to be. Does this mean that the constant chatter about this or that index can be reduced? 

We have to look at these indices in non-canonical ways when there are so many overlapping influences.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

now the American models aren't even downloading data - Government Shutdown to blame ? --this from tropical tidbits :

Jan 23: NOAA data downloads are very slow today, resulting in model delays. I'm working to retrieve the data.

Gfs is running fine on Stormvista

[TriPol]

Shouldn't we be talking about tomorrow's storm threat?

[Snowlover11]

13 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Shouldn't we be talking about tomorrow's storm threat?

nope, cant you tell people cant take certain things to the banter threads?

[NEG NAO]

26 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Shouldn't we be talking about tomorrow's storm threat?

yeah - spring has sprung in January again after near zero temps 3 days previous from Upton:

FURTHERMORE, WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PROGGED OVER THE AREA  
(AFOREMENTIONED SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 2 TO -2), THERE IS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION, WHICH COULD ORGANIZE  
ITSELF AS A FINE LINE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IF THIS OCCURS,  
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO SEVERE LIMITS (AT LEAST 58  
MPH). IF THIS OCCURS, THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED BY A SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM WARNING. THIS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN THE CWA (FROM  
W TO E) FROM MID MORNING-MID AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

yeah - spring has sprung in January again after near zero temps 3 days previous from Upton:

FURTHERMORE, WITH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PROGGED OVER THE AREA  
(AFOREMENTIONED SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 2 TO -2), THERE IS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION, WHICH COULD ORGANIZE  
ITSELF AS A FINE LINE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IF THIS OCCURS,  
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO SEVERE LIMITS (AT LEAST 58  
MPH). IF THIS OCCURS, THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED BY A SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM WARNING. THIS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN THE CWA (FROM  
W TO E) FROM MID MORNING-MID AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY

A severe thunderstorm warning in January. I'll take anything at this point.

[donsutherland1]

Tonight and tomorrow will see another rainstorm bring a widespread 1"-2" rain with locally higher amounts to much of the region. Binghamton, Bridgeport, Islip, Poughkeepsie, Providence, and Scranton could challenge or break daily precipitation records for January 24. Current records for those cities are as follows: Binghamton: 0.67", 1965; Bridgeport: 2.05", 1979; Islip: 1.61", 1965; Poughkeepsie: 1.12"; 1998; Providence: 1.68", 1951; and, Scranton: 1.11", 1979.

The SOI was +4.86 today. The SOI could go negative within 1-4 days.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.295. That is the lowest figure since January 14 when the AO was -1.400. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.088.

On January 22, the MJO was in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 1.993 (RMM). That amplitude had risen further from the January 21-adjusted figure of 1.720.

The MJO will likely continue to advance through Phase 5 and then Phase 6 over the next several days to perhaps a week. The MJO's amplitude could also continue to increase in the near-term. The prospects of a rapid decline to a low amplitude state have diminished in recent days. It is now more likely than not that the MJO will remain at a high amplitude through the remainder of January.

With the MJO's likely pushing back toward lower amplitudes and/or into the colder phases toward the start of February, the AO will very likely return to negative values for a sustained period of time after perhaps some near-term positive fluctuations. Strong to perhaps severe blocking could develop in the closing days of January.

This blocking coupled with above average monthly precipitation could allow for February to be snowier than normal, especially if the MJO progresses into Phases 7, 8 and 1. Nevertheless, the risk of a less snowy outcome exists. One plausible scenario would involve the MJO's remaining in its warmer phases at a high amplitude.

The El Niño will likely remain weak and possibly basin-wide during much or even all of February. The ENSO outcome will likely be determined from a combination of the strength/persistence of a forecast westerly wind burst and the ENSO conditions prior to that development. As such an scenario is without precedent since 1950 when ENSO region data began to be tracked, the outcomes associated with neutral ENSO February cases may provide insight into the risks associated with weak basin-wide El Niño conditions.

[NEG NAO]

This does not look good through at least 1st week of Feb.

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

This does not look good through at least 1st week of Feb.

Lets all root hard for EURO.

Weeklies should be interesting tomorrow.

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

This does not look good through at least 1st week of Feb.

Pattern has pretty much locked in and is just recycling itself. 

So expect mostly wet & mild with the occasional arctic cold shot. Jan's temp departures could be identical to December's. 

It's basically a warmer version of a 1980s winter pattern.

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Pattern has pretty much locked in and is just recycling itself. 

So expect mostly wet & mild with the occasional arctic cold shot. Jan's temp departures could be identical to December's. 

It's basically a warmer version of a 1980s winter pattern.

The monthly temperature departure will probably come down to the last few days of January. Departures will get pushed further above normal with the warmth coming in tomorrow. A strong enough Arctic outbreak next week could tip the departure to colder.

 

[JustinRP37]

HPN is running 1.4 degrees F above normal. I could see January being right around normal, but I do not think much if any below. December finished +3.2F. We will see if we can get February to cooperate. 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Pattern has pretty much locked in and is just recycling itself. 

So expect mostly wet & mild with the occasional arctic cold shot. Jan's temp departures could be identical to December's. 

It's basically a warmer version of a 1980s winter pattern.

Yeah I keep checking back here to see if things are changing, but they aren't. Spent a lot of last week tracking what in truth was basically more rain for a lot of us. We are closing in on Feb now and I don't see anything ahead to get excited about, except spring. Not that it would matter, as these long term projections have proven useless this year. Will check back to see if the odd storm might pop up, but it looks like I'll be draining the gas from the snowblowers while it is good enough to use for the cars. Hopefully something will happen, but I am old enough to have seen where the whole winter winds down like this. Hoping for a Feb 95 type event at this point. Cheers.

[donsutherland1]

At 10 pm, the temperature was 51° in Central Park. That's the first time since January 1 that the temperature has reached 50° or above in New York City. The high temperature on January 1 was 58°.

[JustinRP37]

Sad to report that we are just about at that time where our daily average temperatures begin to rise. For most of the tri-state area this is the week (Friday for my closest station) where average temperatures begin their long, slow journey to spring and summer. Those early season forecasts of a below average temperature meteorological winter are just about done now. February would need a strong negative departure to bring DJF to below average temperatures. Fingers crossed that we can still get to average snowfall, but I am beginning to fear that call too. We will almost certainly finish the season now with below average number of days with snow cover of 1 inch or more area wide. 

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The monthly temperature departure will probably come down to the last few days of January. Departures will get pushed further above normal with the warmth coming in tomorrow. A strong enough Arctic outbreak next week could tip the departure to colder.

 

Nationwide warmth first 3 weeks....

[the_other_guy]

That is amazing as it is 39 here less than 15 miles north. And I was in Queens earlier this evening where it was 44.

 

[MJO812]

Rain in the winter sucks

I'm still waiting for the pattern change that some people are still expecting.

[nzucker]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Rain in the winter sucks

I'm still waiting for the pattern change that some people are still expecting.

Considering you're on 5.5" for the season, that may point to the fact that it's not happening as planned. We may get a snowy period late January and early February, but that's probably not going to make up for the futility of the rest of the season. And late Feb/March snow aren't the same since they melt so quickly.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The monthly temperature departure will probably come down to the last few days of January. Departures will get pushed further above normal with the warmth coming in tomorrow. A strong enough Arctic outbreak next week could tip the departure to colder.

 

Well at least we're not alone.

It looks like everyone in the eastern two thirds of the country other than upstate NY and northern NE are in the same boat

[MJO812]

44 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Considering you're on 5.5" for the season, that may point to the fact that it's not happening as planned. We may get a snowy period late January and early February, but that's probably not going to make up for the futility of the rest of the season. And late Feb/March snow aren't the same since they melt so quickly.

I'm 0.5 for the winter ( not counting Nov)

Worst winter since 2001-2002

[NycStormChaser]

18 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I'm 0.5 for the winter ( not counting Nov)

Worst winter since 2001-2002

Why wouldn't you count November? Also, tomorrows storm will be very interesting even if it is rain and not snow. 

[winterwx21]

The arctic blast for late next week is really starting to look intense. It could be almost as cold as the one we just had, but longer lasting. Such an irritating pattern to get a big rainstorm in between brutal arctic blasts. I hope the calls for a snowy February pan out.

[LibertyBell]

On 1/22/2019 at 7:45 PM, donsutherland1 said:

The SOI was +3.82 today. The SOI could go negative within 2-5 days.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.577. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.065.

On January 21, the MJO moved into Phase 5 with an amplitude of 1.711 (RMM). That amplitude had risen somewhat from the January 20-adjusted figure of 1.627.

The MJO will likely continue to advance through Phase 5 and then Phase 6 over the next several days to perhaps a week. The MJO's amplitude could continue to increase in the near-term, before leveling off and then declining. However, its amplitude is very unlikely to reach the levels seen during late December into the start of January. Nevertheless, a rapid collapse of the MJO into low amplitude values is unlikely. Instead, the process will likely be gradual perhaps requiring an additional 4 or more days.

With the MJO's likely pushing back toward lower amplitudes and/or into the colder phases near the end of the month, the AO will very likely return to negative values for a sustained period of time after perhaps some near-term positive fluctuations. Strong to perhaps severe blocking could develop in the closing days of January. The persistence of such blocking could set the stage for a snowy February in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. Even the Southeast could experience potential snowfall opportunities.

Before then, a potentially moisture-laden storm could bring a widespread 1"-2" rainfall with locally higher amounts to the region from late January 23 into January 25. Another storm could impact the region in the January 27-29 period. That storm could bring snowfall to parts of the region. Yet another storm could move into the region to conclude the month.

Finally, it appears that the El Niño will remain weak and basin-wide in nature during February. That outcome could have implications for the month as a whole. However, since 1950, there have been no cases where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C to +0.99°C with a similar or even warmer ENSO 1+2 anomaly in February. In other words, the current ENSO is in somewhat uncharted meteorological territory if anomalies similar to the current weekly anomalies prevail during February.

looks like the NAO might stay near neutral or even a little positive, Don.

 

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, bluewave said:

I wouldn’t go that far since it only takes one with snowstorms just like hurricanes. We have had a number of winters where 1 storm saved the whole winter. We just need to get some improvement from the Pacific Jet and finally see the MJO decay. Perhaps, at some point in February we can get a more traditional STJ pattern and see the PAC jet weaken. This could happen if the MJO decays and allows a more typical El Niño forcing to become eastablished near the Date Line. 

Root for this pattern to emerge in February

I think its unprecedented to have a 40"+ snowfall winter when there has been zero all snow events of 1" or higher in December or January.

 

It looks like the NAO wont be going negative anytime soon either,

 

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

I think that’s what we have to hope for at this point.  February 2006 delivered the goods in a generally horrid winter

that still wont be a blockbuster winter lol 1982-83 and 2015-16 werent blockbuster winters either, they were above average though because of one amazing storm.  I would love to see another 30" snowstorm here but at this point, it would have to be a 30 inch snowstorm for me to consider it memorable in a positive way.

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

I would say the general hybrid look to the Pacific pattern that I posted a few days ago.

We have certainly been getting some contradictory patterns in the Pacific in recent years. The warming of the equatorial Pacific west of the Date Line has amped up the MJO. It used to be that the Western Pacific would cool off during El Niño’s. But now we get a solid block of SST warmth from South America to Asia. There has also been quite a bit of SST warming off the equator in the Tropical Pacific. So we are mixing SST patterns together which would remained separate in the past. We can get this stuff like the SOI being out of phase with ENSO. Along with jet patterns that can look hybrid. There was also  record precipitation in 2016-2017 for parts of California that broke the super Niño records set in 1983 and 1998. Almost like a one year delay from the super El Niño in 2015-2016.

Yes which makes me think next year may be our great backloaded winter.  I hope it's a weak la nina because that would really do it (or at least cold neutral like 1966-67 was)- la ninas after el ninos are awesome.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

The monthly temperature departure will probably come down to the last few days of January. Departures will get pushed further above normal with the warmth coming in tomorrow. A strong enough Arctic outbreak next week could tip the departure to colder.

 

I dont think it really matters, its still within the average range, besides in the 80s we had some very cold Januarys with very little snow, so this really is just a warmer version of an 80s January lol

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, nzucker said:

Considering you're on 5.5" for the season, that may point to the fact that it's not happening as planned. We may get a snowy period late January and early February, but that's probably not going to make up for the futility of the rest of the season. And late Feb/March snow aren't the same since they melt so quickly.

I dont know what RSI (Regional Snowfall Index?) is but I saw a chart somewhere that showed how many Cat 3 or higher RSI snowstorms we have seen by month since the 1870s, and there have been 4 in December, 10 in January, 13 in February and 0 in March.