January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

shows 4 -8 inches - at least its shown that in a couple of model runs recently - next week we will finally have some high pressure to the north with cold air feeding in  and a little blocking to our northeast to potentially force the system south of us

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/new-jersey/snow-depth-in/20190108-1800z.html

We'll see, but the maps I saw posted in the NE thread showed more like 3-4 inches for our area and then a change to rain.  Even that would be fine.  No one around here can complain with the kind of season we've had so far. If all we get this season is a few of those events, that would still be an okay season.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

shows 4 -8 inches - at least its shown that in a couple of model runs recently - next week we will finally have some high pressure to the north with cold air feeding in  and a little blocking to our northeast to potentially force the system south of us

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/new-jersey/snow-depth-in/20190108-1800z.html

Agree

All about timing. Thread the needle.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

During El Niño or recent neutral winters, the mildest portion of January has been typically during the first half. La Nina’s can be colder early on like last winter was before turning warmer second half. So the timing of things so far has followed expectations based on climatology alone. There are also some similarities to the neutral 12-13 winter with the record November snow and winter shutting off until later in the season. 

The similarity to 12-13 might be because of the fact that the weather pattern has behaved more like a La Nina in November and December.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The similarity to 12-13 might be because of the fact that the weather pattern has behaved more like a La Nina in November and December.

Or winter of 2014-2015

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Agree

All about timing. Thread the needle.

Heck if we could thread the needle in a pattern such as last Feb then we can Definately score a light to moderate event here.

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The similarity to 12-13 might be because of the fact that the weather pattern has behaved more like a La Nina in November and December.

The interesting thing about 12-13 is that it followed the typical El Niño progression from warm to cold and snow. This could be related to the fact that we got the odd El Niño that peaked on Labor Day before fading out. October had the typical El Niño pattern so that may have set the tone early on for the rest of the season. The cold and snowy November this year turning milder into January has also been similar.

[Rtd208]

 

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Or winter of 2014-2015

I definitely wouldn’t count on a 14-15 redux. The amount of snow we got from late January to early March that winter was a historic first in the entire history of weather record keeping for NYC

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The interesting thing about 12-13 is that it followed the typical El Niño progression from warm to cold and snow. This could be related to the fact that we got the odd El Niño that peaked on Labor Day before fading out. October had the typical El Niño pattern so that may have set the tone early on for the rest of the season. The cold and snowy November this year turning milder into January has also been similar.

If it happens if would also follow the pattern of the one big snowstorm in February.  Actually that snowstorm could have been historic for us had it not developed a bit too far to the east.  The problem is, using analogs like 12-13 and 14-15, that happened in BOTH winters consistently, so that may not have been a coincidence.

Besides the February snowstorm that buried SNE and Suffolk County in February 2013, what else did we get in the second half? I recall there were some events in March which gave us some snow too, but the heaviest parts of systems both those seasons favored those to the east and north of us.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, snowman19 said:

I wouldn’t definitely wouldn’t count on a 14-15 redux. The amount of snow we got from late January to early March that winter was a historic first in the entire history of weather record keeping for NYC

And that was even though we were close to the fringe on all those systems- they were heaviest east and north.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I definitely wouldn’t count on a 14-15 redux. The amount of snow we got from late January to early March that winter was a historic first in the entire history of weather record keeping for NYC

Why wouldn't you count on it ?

You don't know what's going to happen when the pattern changes.

Majority of winter forecasts have near 40 inches for our area.

[bluewave]

50 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

If it happens if would also follow the pattern of the one big snowstorm in February.  Actually that snowstorm could have been historic for us had it not developed a bit too far to the east.  The problem is, using analogs like 12-13 and 14-15, that happened in BOTH winters consistently, so that may not have been a coincidence.

Besides the February snowstorm that buried SNE and Suffolk County in February 2013, what else did we get in the second half? I recall there were some events in March which gave us some snow too, but the heaviest parts of systems both those seasons favored those to the east and north of us.

At least we know that the temperature pattern so far in early January 19 is closer to 13 than 15. We had that very impressive arctic shot during the first week of January 15 with single digit lows in NYC. 12-13 was all about winter being just 10 days away until it finally clicked later on. 12-13 was probably the most recent winter getting pushed back every week  like this year.

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least we know that the temperature pattern so far in early January 2019 is closer to 2013 than 2015. We had that very impressive arctic shot during the first week of January  2015 with single digit lows in NYC. 12-13 was all about winter being just 10 days away until it finally clicked later on. 2013 was probably the most recent winter getting pushed back every week  like this year.

Jan 2013 did have a very cold and dry period at the end of the month.....let's hope we don't see that this year after all the storms we've had.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Jan 2013 did have a very cold and dry period at the end of the month.....let's hope we don't see that this year after all the storms we've had.

People will tolerate a winter that keeps pushed back if it eventually produces later on. 

[495weatherguy]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Name a few

I meant to say experience.    And yes, I grew up in the 70’s and 80’s on LI when we were snow challenged.   Numerous times “snowy winters” were predicted only to fall short.   Blizzards were rare, even 8 inch storms were rare

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I definitely wouldn’t count on a 14-15 redux. The amount of snow we got from late January to early March that winter was a historic first in the entire history of weather record keeping for NYC

I think your thinking of Boston and south eastern New England. NYC had historic February cold but not snows. 

Patterns tend to really lock in, in our current climate so if we are going to get that full scale reversal to cold and snowy I would expect it to be major. The only question is when and if that happens.

[NJwx85]

A stronger system Friday night into Saturday would have produced a good snowstorm for the interior. Even as is, the surface is in the mid 30's inland, even on the warm biased GFS. The problem is that 993mb and a weakening system overall is just not going to get it done. With those weak dynamics, the mid levels torch. 

I don't like that system for the 12th either, way too much confluence over Southeastern Canada. Looks like a typical suppression pattern. Things could shift Northward over time but the pattern looks more like the one that delivered all that snow to the Carolina's a few weeks ago.

[NJwx85]

The FV3-GFS has something interesting going on early next week with a Southerly wave ejecting out from the Southwest and a Northern stream piece coming down from the Plains but the phase is too late so the low cuts to our West and North. The teleconnections actually would support a storm digging further Southeast with the -NAO/+PNA if the phase could happen further West.

[NittanyWx]

I think the 8th/9th is the best chance we got here as far as snowfall through the next couple of weeks.  I don't hate the look in theory, front end thump with overrunning and a wedge cold with HP in Quebec.  But it will not stay as snow.  It's really a front end thump and changeover scenario to me if we can get something.  Still a week away though.

 

[RU848789]

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Why wouldn't you count on it ?

You don't know what's going to happen when the pattern changes.

Majority of winter forecasts have near 40 inches for our area.

The majority of winter forecasts have near 40 inches for our area probably because the majority of people making those forecasts like snow, lol.  

[Brian5671]

37 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

The majority of winter forecasts have near 40 inches for our area probably because the majority of people making those forecasts like snow, lol.  

the majority of forecasts also had us in the icebox by now, instead the torch has continued unabated....can't really put alot of stock in LR forecasts at this point in time...so much can go wrong as we've seen the past few weeks.

[TriPol]

48 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

I think the 8th/9th is the best chance we got here as far as snowfall through the next couple of weeks.  I don't hate the look in theory, front end thump with overrunning and a wedge cold with HP in Quebec.  But it will not stay as snow.  It's really a front end thump and changeover scenario to me if we can get something.  Still a week away though.

 

Sounds like our November storm...

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Why wouldn't you count on it ?

You don't know what's going to happen when the pattern changes.

Majority of winter forecasts have near 40 inches for our area.

I don’t ever count on getting over 40 inches of snow between late January and early March. As Don already pointed out, it’s only happened one time in NYC weather history (winter 14-15)

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t ever count on getting over 40 inches of snow between late January and early March. As Don already pointed out, it’s only happened one time in NYC weather history (winter 14-15)

only thing we have going for us is the 5-6 inches already in the books from the November storm.   Without that 40 would really be a stretch

[CIK62]

ACCUWEATHER LR discussion still sounds like it has given up on Jan., other than getting back toward a normal week before month's end.     Again mentioning a wrong way MJO and the need for a second SSW, that may save some of Feb.     JB keeps giving himself excuses, but still likes second half of Jan.

Too much reliance on analogs, which probably have a bad track record anyway,  when you insist on predicting BN anywhere.    Just say AN on a seasonal forecast and you will right 60% of the time with your eyes closed.     Analogs are just that and can hide features that will come back to bite later.    

 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

ACCUWEATHER LR discussion still sounds like it has given up on Jan., other than getting back toward a normal week before month's end.     Again mentioning a wrong way MJO and the need for a second SSW, that may save some of Feb.     JB keeps giving himself excuses, but still likes second half of Jan.

Too much reliance on analogs, which probably have a bad track record anyway,  when you insist on predicting BN anywhere.    Just say AN on a seasonal forecast and you will right 60% of the time with your eyes closed.     Analogs are just that and can hide features that will come back to bite later.    

 

I'd give it a couple more weeks, but if we see the good pattern pushing back once again, it may be time to toss in the proverbial towel as that would follow the trend of some other notable duds where the modeling always had the good pattern 10-15 days out but it never moved up in time...

[jm1220]

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t ever count on getting over 40 inches of snow between late January and early March. As Don already pointed out, it’s only happened one time in NYC weather history (winter 14-15)

All I know is, until the roaring Pacific Jet driven pattern ends, we can maybe sneak in a moderate snow event at best in between milder than normal conditions. The MJO being stuck isn’t good-we need it to move to a more favorable state. 

Will it turn around eventually-probably, but we’ll need to do some serious catching up to get everyone above or well above average snow. Maybe we can get a beast like the Jan 2016 storm but you can’t rely on something like that. 

 

 

 

[JustinRP37]

To those always wondering why long range forecasters say above average snowfall year in and year out... what do you see on Twitter and click more? A headline that says below average snowfall expected in the Northeast or “Bitter Cold and Snowy Winter for the Northeast Expected”? This is why people have to look at the track record of the person calling for the brutal cold. To us winter sports enthusiasts, this is peak season! One massive storm doesn't make the season! It isn't even cold enough to make snow at night currently in Southern NY and southern New England. 

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

All I know is, until the roaring Pacific Jet driven pattern ends, we can maybe sneak in a moderate snow event at best in between milder than normal conditions. The MJO being stuck isn’t good-we need it to move to a more favorable state. 

Will it turn around eventually-probably, but we’ll need to do some serious catching up to get everyone above or well above average snow. Maybe we can get a beast like the Jan 2016 storm but you can’t rely on something like that. 

 

 

 

The MJO is moving, it'll be in phase 7 in less than a week. They'll probably be some lag before we see the effects of it, but I feel good about the winter pattern post 1/20. 

Pretty much every Nino this decade has been back-loaded, I fully expect the same this year. It's not hard to get AN snow totals either in a short time frame, it's happened frequently the past two decades. 

Delayed not denied this season.

[North and West]

22 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

To those always wondering why long range forecasters say above average snowfall year in and year out... what do you see on Twitter and click more? A headline that says below average snowfall expected in the Northeast or “Bitter Cold and Snowy Winter for the Northeast Expected”? This is why people have to look at the track record of the person calling for the brutal cold. To us winter sports enthusiasts, this is peak season! One massive storm doesn't make the season! It isn't even cold enough to make snow at night currently in Southern NY and southern New England. 

Correct.