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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations


Rtd208

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Could be worse  

  Tonight
Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around -23. Wind chill values as low as -72. Very windy, with a northwest wind 85 to 90 mph increasing to 95 to 100 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 130 mph.
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For those with the chance of check 2M temp guidance...  take a look at current GFS vs EC 2m temp fcsts (this has also been the history of both models for this event).  Looks to me like the EC has outperformed the GFS in morning lows NYC-AVP and i think will be a winner with todays afternoon high when temps don't rise much more than 8F from the 730AM lows.  This because of the maximized cold pool, 500MB down to the sfc, represented by the -24C 850MB temp at 18z/21.  Also, I've noticed arctic chill is like molasses and it tends to trail the coldest air aloft. MAX today in CP might only be 14F.  A chilly day...not necessarily a big deal for most of us (its winter), except utilities use explicitly accurate hourly or 3 hourly temp fcsts for ensuring everyone has heat and fuel, including industry. For sure splitting the difference between the EC/GFS 2 m temp was an improvement, upon the GFS alone. 

 

Revising this: now that its % in CP and -2 here Wantage...this is ECMWF op run after op run superiority upon the GFS 2m temps from AVP to NYC for sure...  I see there EC 2m temps best on weather.us (subscriber).  In any case, I now think that NYC will be hard pressed to exceed 13F this afternoon. (8F rise form this mornings low). Updated 721A/21. 

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9 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

5 at CPK - there you have it for those wondering if it would be reached.

Can anyone remember the last time NYC had over 1.00” of rain followed by a drop to 5 or lower the next day?

County...
   Central Park          1.17  1251 PM  1/20  ASOS
Central Park   MOCLDY     5 
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41 minutes ago, wdrag said:

For those with the chance of check 2M temp guidance...  take a look at current GFS vs EC 2m temp fcsts (this has also been the history of both models for this event).  Looks to me like the EC has outperformed the GFS in morning lows NYC-AVP and i think will be a winner with todays afternoon high when temps don't rise much more than 8F from the 730AM lows.  This because of the maximized cold pool, 500MB down to the sfc, represented by the -24C 850MB temp at 18z/21.  Also, I've noticed arctic chill is like molasses and it tends to trail the coldest air aloft. MAX today in CP might only be 14F.  A chilly day...not necessarily a big deal for most of us (its winter), except utilities use explicitly accurate hourly or 3 hourly temp fcsts for ensuring everyone has heat and fuel, including industry. For sure splitting the difference between the EC/GFS 2 m temp was an improvement, upon the GFS alone. 

 

Revising this: now that its % in CP and -2 here Wantage...this is ECMWF op run after op run superiority upon the GFS 2m temps from AVP to NYC for sure...  I see there EC 2m temps best on weather.us (subscriber).  In any case, I now think that NYC will be hard pressed to exceed 13F this afternoon. (8F rise form this mornings low). Updated 721A/21. 

Jesus, you’re good.  I hope there’s a way for someone with your skills to get paid by energy traders or whatnot in a consulting capacity.

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Next 8 days averaging 28degs., or 4degs. BN

Month to date is +2.1[34.5].       Should be +0.3[32.6] by the 29th.   First days of Feb. are still AN, when yesterday they were the opposite.

EURO is 9" of Snow for the next 10 days(really just the 29th.).     GEFS is at least a 60% chance of 10" by Feb. 6.

Low here so far (7:45am) is +5.5*.  Bottomed at +5.1*(7:53am).   Took until exactly Noon to reach 10*.

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Looks like 6°F will do it here as the temperature has started rising. Ironically, this is about the average annual minimum temperature.

Average temperatures have turned the corner and are now rising from this point forward, though it’s winter and anything can (and will) happen.

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winters coldest max...days with a max 19 or lower...or lowest of the season...Central Park NYC...
Year..... days max...

2017-18...5....13

2016-17...0....23

2015-16...1....15

2014-15...1....19

2013-14...3....17

2012-13...0....20
2011-12...0....27.
2010-11...0....23.
2009-10...0....20
2008-09...1....16
2007-08...0....20
2006-07...1....18
2005-06...0....24
2004-05...2....18
2003-04...4....15
2002-03...1....15
2001-02...0....31
2000-01...0....25
1999-00...1....19
1998-99...0....25.
1997-98...0....29.
1996-97...1....17
1995-96...3....17
1994-95...0....20
1993-94...5....10
1992-93...0....27
1991-92...0....23
1990-91...0....20
1989-90...1....18
1988-89...0....20.
1987-88...1....17
1986-87...1....19
1985-86...0....22
1984-85...1......9
1983-84...3....13
1982-83...0....21
1981-82...6....15
1980-81...3....14
1979-80...0....21
1978-79...6....13
1977-78...0....21
1976-77...5....12
1975-76...2....15
1974-75...0....27
1973-74...0....22
1972-73...1....18.
1971-72...1....15
1970-71...4....12
1969-70...3....14
1968-69...0....22
1967-68...4....13
1966-67...1....16
1965-66...1....19
1964-65...3....16
1963-64...0....22
1962-63...1....13
1961-62...0....24
1960-61...2....19
1959-60...0....23
1958-59...0....22
1957-58...2....10
1956-57...1....12
1955-56...1....18
1954-55...1....17
1953-54...0....21
1952-53...0....29.
1951-52...0....20
1950-51...0....20
1949-50...0....22
1948-49...0....22.
1947-48...2....18.
......................................................................
1942-43...2......8.
1935-36...4....16
1934-35...5....16
1933-34...6......8.
1917-18.12......2.

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