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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations


Rtd208

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have certainly been getting some contradictory patterns in the Pacific in recent years. The warming of the equatorial Pacific west of the Dateline has amped up the MJO. It used to be that the Westwrn Pacific would cool off during El Niño’s. But now we get a solid block of SST warmth from South America to Asia. There has also been quite a bit of SST warming of the equator in the Tropical Pacific. So we are mixing SST patterns together which would remain separate in the past. We can get this stuff like the SOI being out of phase with ENSO. Along with jet patterns that can look hybrid. We also had the record precipitation in 2017 for parts of California. That broke the super Niño records set in 1983 and 1998. Almost like a one year delay from the super El Niño in 2015-16.

Exactly, and well said. Basically where my thought process has been. Strongly agree with the bolded. 

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44 minutes ago, TwcMan said:

Wish we had a 50/50 for the 28th.

without that 50/50 you more then likely get the same results that this weekends event produced - teleconnections do not look totally  favorable moving forward into the medium term and we will have to rely on "threading the needle" type events which may or may not occur....

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14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

without that 50/50 you more then likely get the same results that this weekends event produced - teleconnections do not look totally  favorable moving forward into the medium term and we will have to rely on "threading the needle" type events which may or may not occur....

 

With the way this winter has been going, I’m inclined to believe it won’t work in our favor. But things could change. Maybe the 25th/26th clipper can act as pseudo 50/50 for the 28th.

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11 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

They seem to be wrong MORE than they are right = fixed that for you. In other news currently 13 degrees in New city

Come to think of it you are right. Especially when calling for double digit snows. In fact I don't often see more than 8 inches. Most of the time it's 3-5. Must be something about the geography over here. I seem to be either too west, too north, or too south.

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

We have certainly been getting some contradictory patterns in the Pacific in recent years. The warming of the equatorial Pacific west of the Dateline has amped up the MJO. It used to be that the Western Pacific would cool off during El Niño’s. But now we get a solid block of SST warmth from South America to Asia. There has also been quite a bit of SST warming off the equator in the Tropical Pacific. So we are mixing SST patterns together which would remained separate in the past. We can get this stuff like the SOI being out of phase with ENSO. Along with jet patterns that can look hybrid. There was also  record precipitation in 2016-2017 for parts of California that broke the super Niño records set in 1983 and 1998. Almost like a one year delay from the super El Niño in 2015-2016.

Yes, and by that measure next year will be our big backloaded winter lol.  Sort of like how 1965-66 had the el nino, but 1966-67 was the big backloaded winter, and in between one of the hottest summers on record.

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