Snowshack Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Mjo going into the COD I guess you haven't been following everyone's thoughts. Not too many people expected the high amplitude phase 5 in Dec or the recent quick return to unfavorable, so let’s hope that forecast for neutral pans out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Snowshack said: Not too many people expected the high amplitude phase 5 in Dec or the recent quick return to unfavorable, so let’s hope that forecast for neutral pans out that's the point I was trying to make above...folks said that once we got out of the last warm phase that we were all set and just as it was preparing to go through a ride from 7/8/1 it went back into the COD and popped out around 5 again and with some moderate amplitude. Even JB says today that it's not what he wants to see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: that's the point I was trying to make above...folks said that once we got out of the last warm phase that we were all set and just as it was preparing to go through a ride from 7/8/1 it went back into the COD and popped out around 5 again and with some moderate amplitude. Even JB says today that it's not what he wants to see.... Whatever JB or anyone else wants to see doesn't mean a thing. I have seen people on these boards call for a turnaround every year. Sometimes it happens sometimes not. Like I said elsewhere, it's like a medium doing a cold reading, you are bound to get some things right just from random chance. My unscientific take is that the writing is on the wall for this winter, and was the minute it snowed in Nov. But I would never take that to the bank because it would be foolish. I don't know the future or I'd by a winning lottery ticket. And as I've said, hope springs eternal. And we've got Anthony cheering us on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, weatherpruf said: Whatever JB or anyone else wants to see doesn't mean a thing. I have seen people on these boards call for a turnaround every year. Sometimes it happens sometimes not. Like I said elsewhere, it's like a medium doing a cold reading, you are bound to get some things right just from random chance. My unscientific take is that the writing is on the wall for this winter, and was the minute it snowed in Nov. But I would never take that to the bank because it would be foolish. I don't know the future or I'd by a winning lottery ticket. And as I've said, hope springs eternal. And we've got Anthony cheering us on.... we all love storms and cold in the winter, but I tend to agree, this year is not going to plan-yes the pattern changed but the sensible weather is more of the same...the cold we've had has been dry and eventless for the most part. Hoping for a change, but looks like we're looking to Feb now (or very close to it) and going essentially snowless for 2/3 of met winter....hope springs eternal fellow weenies!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: we all love storms and cold in the winter, but I tend to agree, this year is not going to plan-yes the pattern changed but the sensible weather is more of the same...the cold we've had has been dry and eventless for the most part. Hoping for a change, but looks like we're looking to Feb now (or very close to it) and going essentially snowless for 2/3 of met winter....hope springs eternal fellow weenies!!!! I will be happy with one decent event. Haven't seen too many storms over 8 inches here since 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 46 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: we all love storms and cold in the winter, but I tend to agree, this year is not going to plan-yes the pattern changed but the sensible weather is more of the same...the cold we've had has been dry and eventless for the most part. Hoping for a change, but looks like we're looking to Feb now (or very close to it) and going essentially snowless for 2/3 of met winter....hope springs eternal fellow weenies!!!! People have said the 2nd half of January will get better. You don't listen to anyone. We have told you ( on other forums also) , the pattern is going to get better and now the models show it . January isn't over yet. We will have more chances this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 55 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Whatever JB or anyone else wants to see doesn't mean a thing. I have seen people on these boards call for a turnaround every year. Sometimes it happens sometimes not. Like I said elsewhere, it's like a medium doing a cold reading, you are bound to get some things right just from random chance. My unscientific take is that the writing is on the wall for this winter, and was the minute it snowed in Nov. But I would never take that to the bank because it would be foolish. I don't know the future or I'd by a winning lottery ticket. And as I've said, hope springs eternal. And we've got Anthony cheering us on.... Look at the pattern and then get back to me. The mjo is going into the COD and the lag for the ssw is up. Things will quickly change for the better. It sucks right now but it's only January. Remember 2016? Alot of places didn't get their 1st major storm until the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 hours ago, Snowshack said: Not too many people expected the high amplitude phase 5 in Dec or the recent quick return to unfavorable, so let’s hope that forecast for neutral pans out No but majority of people said this will be a backloaded winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 A significant snowstorm is getting underway across parts of New York State and northern New England. By the time the snow ends tomorrow, several cities in that region could have their highest snowfall on record for the January 19-20 period. Along the coastal plain, strong warm air advection will limit snowfall amounts. Daily and 2-day snowfall records for select cities are below: The SOI was +8.86 today. Nevertheless, it has been negative for 15 out of the last 19 days. The SOI will likely go negative within 5-7 days. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.384. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.064. On January 18, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.443 (RMM). That amplitude was slightly higher than the January 17-adjusted figure of 1.202. Since regular recordkeeping on the MJO began in 1974, no January snowstorm brought 6" or more to New York City when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.000 or above. There were two cases where New York City received 1.5" or more (January 13-14, 1978 and January 26-27, 1994). Both winters took a dramatic snowy turn afterward. The MJO will likely continue to advance through Phase 4 and into and into Phases 5 and 6 over the next 4-7 days. Initially, the MJO's amplitude will likely continue to increase, but it appears unlikely that the kind of high amplitudes that characterized late December into the start of January will develop. With the MJO's likely pushing back toward or into the colder phases near the end of the month, the AO will very likely return to negative values. Strong to perhaps severe blocking could develop in late January. The persistence of such blocking could set the stage for a snowy to perhaps very snowy February in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. Following this weekend's storm, there is a risk for two additional storms to impact the region: January 24-25 and January 27-29. The latter storm could be the bigger and snowier one. Details remain uncertain, but the extent of Atlantic blocking will be important. In fact, the GEFS ensembles show the AO diving around the January 28 timeframe +/- 1 day much as happened just ahead of the January 2005 blizzard. While a big storm is far from assured, the combination of the MJO's moving into its colder phases, strong to severe blocking rapidly developing, and frigid air lurking in Canada suggests real potential. The probability of a colder than normal average monthly temperature for January in the New York City area has continued to increase with the month possibly finishing on a much colder than normal note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Much colder version of today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 If you want to be pessimistic moving forward then I get it, but on paper the pattern looks very favorable for cold & snow starting around the 25/26. Ops & ensembles are very good last few days of Jan going into Feb. PV hangs around Hudson Bay, coldest anomalies are in the Midwest, -AO/NAO, excellent Miller B pattern actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 After this event many will have cashed in both to our South and North and we've had plenty to track. Our truly awful winters have seen an overall lack of storms and it was clear mid way through that it would be an early spring. Right now we don't see signs of that at least for the next few weeks so if we don't cash in it will be due to just really bad luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 23 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Look at the pattern and then get back to me. The mjo is going into the COD and the lag for the ssw is up. Things will quickly change for the better. It sucks right now but it's only January. Remember 2016? Alot of places didn't get their 1st major storm until the blizzard. I think that was our first here in Jan 2016 as well. Great storm, but it still didn't have that winter feel; I believe we had one other piddly event in Feb. And it melted so quickly. Hopefully Feb delivers; aside from the Dec 09 storm, we did nothing in 2010 til Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If you want to be pessimistic moving forward then I get it, but on paper the pattern looks very favorable for cold & snow starting around the 25/26. Ops & ensembles are very good last few days of Jan going into Feb. PV hangs around Hudson Bay, coldest anomalies are in the Midwest, -AO/NAO, excellent Miller B pattern actually. Prefer Miller A's, but will take anything.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: After this event many will have cashed in both to our South and North and we've had plenty to track. Our truly awful winters have seen an overall lack of storms and it was clear mid way through that it would be an early spring. Right now we don't see signs of that at least for the next few weeks so if we don't cash in it will be due to just really bad luck 2002 saw storms to our south; 2007 saw lots to our north IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 19 hours ago, bluewave said: The relationship between the MJO and SSW’s is an active area of current research. Last winter we saw a record MJO 7 nearly 4 SD in February. This was right around the time of the SSW. This winter the Jan SSW was preceded by the MJO spike near 3 sd around Christmas. Last year we had the great run from March into early April as the MJO weakened. Now we are seeing a similar weakening or decay in the MJO next week. So hopefully we get a great window of winter opportunity 5 weeks earlier than last year. Late Jan through Feb instead of March into April. Actually the one last year was for 8 weeks, both March and April. We would have had more snow, but it was April so after the first event it was just cold and rainy. If we get the same results this year, we'll have another 8 week run that will include both February and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 18 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: I am stoked that we actually see a negative NAO. First time This year. Last year the SSW resulted in 28 inches from March through April. Was epic even had a tree fall on my house early March. This SSW if similar would be better due to earlier timing and therefore better than 7 to 1 snow ratios. I dont think having a tree fall on your house is something to brag about lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 16 hours ago, weatherpruf said: It was 92, and they weren't really impressive down my way. Not enough to close school. I was teaching at the time. But it was a bit of a surprise, as we'd had a lot of mild Marches up til then. they were just "okay"- one changed to sleet and rain and the other one underperformed. We were supposed to get 6-8 inches of snow and ended up with 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 16 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: We had the late December storm in a very warm pattern that dumped 6-8". There was a noreaster in January with a good dump of snow before sleet and rain. Interior locations may have gotten up to a foot. There also a surprise storm in late Feb that gave parts of the city on east 6"+ yes! was that late Feb one the one that stalled SE of LI? it lasted for like 30 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: A significant snowstorm is getting underway across parts of New York State and northern New England. By the time the snow ends tomorrow, several cities in that region could have their highest snowfall on record for the January 19-20 period. Along the coastal plain, strong warm air advection will limit snowfall amounts. Daily and 2-day snowfall records for select cities are below: The SOI was +8.86 today. Nevertheless, it has been negative for 15 out of the last 19 days. The SOI will likely go negative within 5-7 days. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.384. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.064. On January 18, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.443 (RMM). That amplitude was slightly higher than the January 17-adjusted figure of 1.202. Since regular recordkeeping on the MJO began in 1974, no January snowstorm brought 6" or more to New York City when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.000 or above. There were two cases where New York City received 1.5" or more (January 13-14, 1978 and January 26-27, 1994). Both winters took a dramatic snowy turn afterward. The MJO will likely continue to advance through Phase 4 and into and into Phases 5 and 6 over the next 4-7 days. Initially, the MJO's amplitude will likely continue to increase, but it appears unlikely that the kind of high amplitudes that characterized late December into the start of January will develop. With the MJO's likely pushing back toward or into the colder phases near the end of the month, the AO will very likely return to negative values. Strong to perhaps severe blocking could develop in late January. The persistence of such blocking could set the stage for a snowy to perhaps very snowy February in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. Following this weekend's storm, there is a risk for two additional storms to impact the region: January 24-25 and January 27-29. The latter storm could be the bigger and snowier one. Details remain uncertain, but the extent of Atlantic blocking will be important. In fact, the GEFS ensembles show the AO diving around the January 28 timeframe +/- 1 day much as happened just ahead of the January 2005 blizzard. While a big storm is far from assured, the combination of the MJO's moving into its colder phases, strong to severe blocking rapidly developing, and frigid air lurking in Canada suggests real potential. The probability of a colder than normal average monthly temperature for January in the New York City area has continued to increase with the month possibly finishing on a much colder than normal note. thats interesting that 1936 popped up again after what you said about that 10+ inch DC storm that gave NYC nothing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 10 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: After this event many will have cashed in both to our South and North and we've had plenty to track. Our truly awful winters have seen an overall lack of storms and it was clear mid way through that it would be an early spring. Right now we don't see signs of that at least for the next few weeks so if we don't cash in it will be due to just really bad luck its not bad luck though its bad MJO and the lack of a -NAO, the same thing happened in the 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 10 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: If you want to be pessimistic moving forward then I get it, but on paper the pattern looks very favorable for cold & snow starting around the 25/26. Ops & ensembles are very good last few days of Jan going into Feb. PV hangs around Hudson Bay, coldest anomalies are in the Midwest, -AO/NAO, excellent Miller B pattern actually. Miller B's favor NE unless they develop well to our south and come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 10 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: its useless to analyze this far out but that high SE of us isn't exactly in a good place lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 18 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: I am stoked that we actually see a negative NAO. First time This year. Last year the SSW resulted in 28 inches from March through April. Was epic even had a tree fall on my house early March. This SSW if similar would be better due to earlier timing and therefore better than 7 to 1 snow ratios. from those charts it looks like there's going to be a disconnect between the AO and the NAO- what are the chances that the AO goes deeply negative while the NAO stays positive? The charts seem more undecided on the NAO post Feb 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 28degs., or 4degs. BN. Month to date is +2.4[34.8]. Should be +0.5[32.8] by the 28th. EURO is 5" of Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS is a 65% chance of at least 17" of Snow by Feb. 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 33 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days averaging 28degs., or 4degs. BN. Month to date is +2.4[34.8]. Should be +0.5[32.8] by the 28th. EURO is 5" of Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS is a 65% chance of at least 17" of Snow by Feb. 5. that's the best forecast I've seen the whole winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: The other wild card this year is models want to continue the split flow with the northern branch stronger than normal for an El Niño. So we are shifting to a more favorable MJO while that old jet pattern lingers at least through the end of January. Did notice the SOI becoming positive again. So I am not sure yet what this will mean. Could result model mayhem as the models often struggle with split flow patterns. What do you think of what Tacoman said in the main ENSO thread about this being the result of the la nina from last year transitioning to an el nino this year, which has caused the positive SOI as well as the Pacific blowtorch? He said el ninos that come after la ninas are generally colder in the West. I know la ninas that come after el ninos are usually really good for us (1995-96 and 2010-11 being prime examples) but I did not know about el ninos coming after la ninas being like this one is. Let's toss some other stuff in here lol- What would happen if the AO went strongly negative but the NAO stayed positive? That plus the above indicators you mentioned, could they result in suppression when its cold enough to snow and result in huggers or runners in between Arctic air masses (basically what we've been seeing already.) So basically, we could be getting more consistently cold but will have to rely on clippers for snow that bomb very late and only significantly impact eastern NE (there's your miller b's lol), while the big storms either get suppressed or are a snow/ice to rain scenario before the next blast of Arctic air comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 GEFS into Feb look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, EastonSN+ said: GEFS into Feb look. Looks nothing like the euro weeklies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Tels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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