January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

[IrishRob17]

42 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

The Thanksgiving storm was the best part of '14-'15, frankly

That was the best if you're looking at snowstorm totals and lets not talk about our blizzard wide right...  Aside from that, I had a snow pack from late January into the third week of March, over a month of which was a double digit snow pack.  I'd take that again. 

[NorthShoreWx]

38 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

To me the historically cold February was the real story of 2014-15.

That was a big story, but for me it was also the 2 foot snowpack still on the ground into the 2nd week of March and all of it not gone until about April 2.  That is unusual here.  It didn't hurt that the big blizzard miss in January wasn't a miss at all here (split the uprights), but I lost count of how many 6" snowfalls we piled on top of that.

[wdrag]

It may be premature-but ensembles are heading this way...  WPC 357 PM QPF has about 3" of qpf the next week or so near I84 (sleet-snow zone?).  if this materializes, hopefully snow load is not a problem the end of next week,  or if its rain~ I-80 south, rivers and streams...  Interesting time ahead.  Just have to take these one at a time. Season total snowfall with the 0.8" this morning 11.3 in our southern part of Wantage NJ.  

[gravitylover]

28 minutes ago, wdrag said:

It may be premature-but ensembles are heading this way...  WPC 357 PM QPF has about 3" of qpf the next week or so near I84 (sleet-snow zone?).  if this materializes, hopefully snow load is not a problem the end of next week,  or if its rain~ I-80 south, rivers and streams...  Interesting time ahead.  Just have to take these one at a time. Season total snowfall with the 0.8" this morning 11.3 in our southern part of Wantage NJ.  

Thanks for the heads up Walt. It's not exactly what I want to hear though ;)

[SnowGoose69]

0.5 in Central Park officially.  Oddly enough the Newark and LaGuardia totals seem a bit low at only 0.3

[MJO812]

What a pattern depicted by the ops and ensembles going forward.

The ssw most likely has to do something with this. The split happened early January.

 

[MJO812]

Anyone have the snowfall amounts from today's event ?

[donsutherland1]

Winter 2018-19 has so far featured an unseasonable early snowstorm in the northern Mid-Atlantic region, a major-historic December snowstorm in the Southeast/Lower Mid-Atlantic region, and a significant Middle Atlantic snowstorm. The recent Middle Atlantic snowstorm was only the 3rd such storm since 1900 to bring 10" or more snow to Washington, DC and no measurable snow to New York City.

Now a major snowstorm will bring a foot or more of snow in an area spanning central Pennsylvania, central New York State, and central and northern New England beginning later tomorrow. Following the storm, a fierce blast of cold air will send temperatures tumbling toward or into the single digits even in New York City.

The SOI rose sharply to 11.26 today. It has been negative for 15 out of the last 18 days.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.149. Prior to its return to positive values, the AO had been negative for 12 consecutive days. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.074.

On January 17, the MJO moved into Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.190 (RMM). That amplitude was slightly higher than the January 16-adjusted figure of 1.093.

The MJO will likely advance fairly quickly into and through Phase 4 and then into Phases 5 and 6. As the MJO moves through Phases 5 and 6, the AO could go positive for a time. However, with the MJO's likely pushing back toward or into the colder phases near the end of the month, the AO will very likely return to negative values. Strong to perhaps severe blocking could develop in late January. The persistence of such blocking could set the stage for a snowy to perhaps very snowy February in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas.

During the February 1-15 period, the AO was negative for 79% of New York City's, 73% Philadelphia's, and 64% of Washington, DC's 6" or greater snowstorms in the 1950-2018 period. A negative AO was also present for 80% of Philadelphia's and 100% of Washington DC's 10" or greater snowstorms during that period.

More immediately, the upcoming weekend storm will likely bring a 12"-18" snow with locally higher amounts to Albany, Bangor, Binghamton, Burlington, Concord, Portland, Rochester, Rutland, and Syracuse. As a result, seasonal snowfall deficits to date could be largely or fully erased in Albany, Concord, Rochester, and Syracuse. Boston, where a record low 0.2" snow had been recorded through this evening, could receive 6"-10". New York City will likely pick up 2"-4". However, any delay in the changeover to sleet, freezing rain, and then rain could result in an accumulation of several additional inches of snow.

The probability of a colder than normal average monthly temperature for January in the New York City area has continued to increase.

[NYCweatherNOW]

Hey how come NOAA.gov site is down and also what happened to intellicast.com? I don’t get it. 35 degrees outside and cooling down slowly

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Anyone have the snowfall amounts from today's event ?

Snowfall totals from today:

BDR: 0.5"
EWR: 0.3"
ISP: 0.7"
JFK: 0.5"
LGA: 0.3"
NYC: 0.5"

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Hey how come NOAA.gov site is down and also what happened to intellicast.com? I don’t get it. 35 degrees outside and cooling down slowly

Web developers and programmers are furloughed. A growing number of .gov sites have seen their certificates expire.

https://www.zdnet.com/article/government-shutdown-tls-certificates-not-renewed-many-websites-are-down/

 

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Hey how come NOAA.gov site is down and also what happened to intellicast.com? I don’t get it. 35 degrees outside and cooling down slowly

Is this a trick question?

[JerseyWx]

39 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Hey how come NOAA.gov site is down and also what happened to intellicast.com? I don’t get it. 35 degrees outside and cooling down slowly

I'm very upset about Intellicast.  Looks like Weather Underground took over.  The site is very slow and not laid out as nice.

[NYCweatherNOW]

2 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

I'm very upset about Intellicast.  Looks like Weather Underground took over.  The site is very slow and not laid out as nice.

I agree. Intellicast was not perfect but it worked perfect on my iPhone. Kinda annoying. Wunderground is horrible. You know what it is, weather channel owns wunderground and I still think the weather channel sucks. The only time I liked weather channel was when Dave Schwartz and Paul Koćin was the winter weather expert. Now it’s just here with a bunch of ’s

[JerseyWx]

Also, I cannot seem to find where all the old Intellicast maps went regarding the labor index, respiratory distress, mood index, etc.  They even had one for bad hair day lol.  To me it's annoying that WU just came in and made changes.  They should have kept the layout the same and just used it as a sister website of sorts.

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

I'm very upset about Intellicast.  Looks like Weather Underground took over.  The site is very slow and not laid out as nice.

well it was actually the weather channel and their owners who took over.... stupid corporate supermergers defeat competition

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Winter 2018-19 has so far featured an unseasonable early snowstorm in the northern Mid-Atlantic region, a major-historic December snowstorm in the Southeast/Lower Mid-Atlantic region, and a significant Middle Atlantic snowstorm. The recent Middle Atlantic snowstorm was only the 3rd such storm since 1900 to bring 10" or more snow to Washington, DC and no measurable snow to New York City.

Now a major snowstorm will bring a foot or more of snow in an area spanning central Pennsylvania, central New York State, and central and northern New England beginning later tomorrow. Following the storm, a fierce blast of cold air will send temperatures tumbling toward or into the single digits even in New York City.

The SOI rose sharply to 11.26 today. It has been negative for 15 out of the last 18 days.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.149. Prior to its return to positive values, the AO had been negative for 12 consecutive days. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.074.

On January 17, the MJO moved into Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.190 (RMM). That amplitude was slightly higher than the January 16-adjusted figure of 1.093.

The MJO will likely advance fairly quickly into and through Phase 4 and then into Phases 5 and 6. As the MJO moves through Phases 5 and 6, the AO could go positive for a time. However, with the MJO's likely pushing back toward or into the colder phases near the end of the month, the AO will very likely return to negative values. Strong to perhaps severe blocking could develop in late January. The persistence of such blocking could set the stage for a snowy to perhaps very snowy February in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas.

During the February 1-15 period, the AO was negative for 79% of New York City's, 73% Philadelphia's, and 64% of Washington, DC's 6" or greater snowstorms in the 1950-2018 period. A negative AO was also present for 80% of Philadelphia's and 100% of Washington DC's 10" or greater snowstorms during that period.

More immediately, the upcoming weekend storm will likely bring a 12"-18" snow with locally higher amounts to Albany, Bangor, Binghamton, Burlington, Concord, Portland, Rochester, Rutland, and Syracuse. As a result, seasonal snowfall deficits to date could be largely or fully erased in Albany, Concord, Rochester, and Syracuse. Boston, where a record low 0.2" snow had been recorded through this evening, could receive 6"-10". New York City will likely pick up 2"-4". However, any delay in the changeover to sleet, freezing rain, and then rain could result in an accumulation of several additional inches of snow.

The probability of a colder than normal average monthly temperature for January in the New York City area has continued to increase.

Don haven't all these snowstorms that brought 10" or more to DC and nothing to NYC all occurred during El Ninos?  We had one of those in early Feb 2010 too.

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

That was a big story, but for me it was also the 2 foot snowpack still on the ground into the 2nd week of March and all of it not gone until about April 2.  That is unusual here.  It didn't hurt that the big blizzard miss in January wasn't a miss at all here (split the uprights), but I lost count of how many 6" snowfalls we piled on top of that.

There was a great early March snowfall that year too, a cross country snowstorm which I always love to see, rather than one that just hits the eastern zones or just the north and west folks lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, Snow88 said:

What a pattern depicted by the ops and ensembles going forward.

The ssw most likely has to do something with this. The split happened early January.

 

Is this the same kind of thing that happened last winter, only it's a month earlier than when it happened last winter?

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, Eduardo said:

Nobody remembers the first half of 2014-15 and they only remember the first half of 2015-16 because of the batshittery that was December 2015.  With the MJO decaying, I think we are in for a decent run that will allow some of us to forget the disappointments we have seen thus far.  I think we snow to the coast and that "retention snobs" like me will be satisfied given the deep cold that's on the way!

lol we all have different memories of that 2015-16, for me it was wonderful because I got to see the biggest snowstorm I have ever seen and might well be the only 30" snowstorm I will ever see in my life.

There were a few other snow events after that too, including a big one that caused a crane to collapse in NYC.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 34degs., or 2degs. AN.

Month to date is +2.4[34.8].     Should be +2.3[34.6] by the 27th.

EURO is 2" of Snow for the next 10days.     GEFS is a70% chance of at least 12" of Snow by Feb. 4.   It would be colder w/o any snow threats!   Those are the warmest days with current setups.  Lol.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 34degs., or 2degs. AN.

Month to date is +2.4[34.8].     Should be +2.3[34.6] by the 27th.

EURO is 2" of Snow for the next 10days.     GEFS is a70% chance of at least 12" of Snow by Feb. 4.   It would be colder w/o any snow threats!   Those are the warmest days with current setups.  Lol.

this winter is something straight of the 1980's...

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

this winter is something straight of the 1980's...

I see you guys are coming around to my way of thinking, although I'm still holding out hope for a 2012-13 type turnaround, nothing as extreme as 2014-15, if that was going to happen it would have started already.  We haven't even had a proper benchmark track yet in the past 6 months.  So a 2012-13 type turn around is the best we can hope for, and the worst?  Something like 2006-07 happening where sure it gets colder- cold enough for a bunch of mixing events in February and March and then a cold April with a lot of rain lol.

[EastonSN+]

Watch us get 2 big snowstorms to get us to average in March and when looking back we will just see an average winter in lieu of catastrophic.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

The new HRRR is really ugly, not like any of the other models are better, but it has a changeover to rain already in the progress even up in Rockland and Sussex Counties by 18 hours after only 1-2 inches of snow

given the western track of the low and strong mid level warmth that's definitely on the table....

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don haven't all these snowstorms that brought 10" or more to DC and nothing to NYC all occurred during El Ninos?  We had one of those in early Feb 2010 too.

1936 was a neutral ENSO.

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Can’t really say this warmer storm track on the 20th was much of surprise. This is what happens when the MJO makes a record jump from 8 to 4-5 in January. The good thing is that the MJO is set to finally weaken after January 25th. 

 

Hence all the predictions for a true start of winter then.

I'm a bit skeptical of a few things though.

1) will the changed pattern truly last for 4-8 weeks or will it be an intermittent pattern of arctic shots followed by huggers/cutters and then more arctic shots.

or two

2) will we get into a cold and dry pattern where the storms will go by to our south much like what happened in early December and earlier this month?

Or maybe 1+2 = we have arctic surges during which the storm track gets compressed to our south and in between the arctic shots we have storms that cut or hug.

The MJO must've been doing this a lot in the 80s.

 

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Hence all the predictions for a true start of winter then.

I'm a bit skeptical of a few things though.

1) will the changed pattern truly last for 4-8 weeks or will it be an intermittent pattern of arctic shots followed by huggers/cutters and then more arctic shots.

or two

2) will we get into a cold and dry pattern where the storms will go by to our south much like what happened in early December and earlier this month?

Or maybe 1+2 = we have arctic surges during which the storm track gets compressed to our south and in between the arctic shots we have storms that cut or hug.

The MJO must've been doing this a lot in the 80s.

 

Long live the blizzard of 83.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Long live the blizzard of 83.

YES we need an el nino that strong it completely overrules every other signal lol.  We had a nice el nino in 2002-03 and 2009-10 too.  And one for the blizzard of 2016

 

[frd]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Can’t really say this warmer storm track on the 20th was much of surprise. This is what happens when the MJO makes a record jump from 8 to 4-5 in January. The Arctic cold rushes in behind the storm. The good thing is that the MJO is set to finally weaken after January 25th. 

 

You always post timey metrics , well done !  

@bluewave Do you think the MJO is ruling the house this winter ?   it sure seems that way. 

Also, I heard once the MJO is in the COD at a lower amp other players can come to the forefront and have more of an influence. 

I have read many good things lining up for Feb including the lessening MJO, increased AAM and better phases of the GWO , downwelling effects from the SSWE. and this all leads to significant blocking. 

However, would appreciate your general ideas, they are always very timely and insightful.