SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Area of snow beginning to expand now. Still doubt anyone sees over 1 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Light snow beginning here in scotch plains. Light coating already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Light snow falling here, temp 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Everything is white in New City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 26 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Light snow falling here, temp 33 27 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Light snow falling here, temp 33 Surprised your so warm. 30 in wantagh right on the bay. Light snow with tiny flake size right now on the Uws side. Snow growth must be pretty awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Really pathetic that tonight's dusting will be the most snow I've had since November. February better deliver something because this winter is top 3 worst for me as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 16 hours ago, Juliancolton said: The trend over the last 24 hours of modeling has been to slow the departure of the storm a bit, but it still seems like the stratiform shield should be eroding by 0z Monday. Totality begins just before midnight, by which time the GFS cloudcover outlook is pretty favorable. The nice thing about a lunar eclipse is that even with broken overcast, it would be almost impossible not to get a clear patch around the moon at some point over the course of an hour. A solar eclipse is totally cooked if you get one wayward Cu passing through. Indeed, and today the forecasts seem to push the precip out of here by the early afternoon, so I'm hopeful about the eclipse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Surprised your so warm. 30 in wantagh right on the bay. Light snow with tiny flake size right now on the Uws side. Snow growth must be pretty awful. nice hit of snow, the roads are snowcovered here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Area of snow beginning to expand now. Still doubt anyone sees over 1 inch there's a coastal associated with this storm isn't there? it's why it looks like areas near the water are seeing a nice hit of snow with roads snowcovered here already, heaviest snow expected around 5 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 hours ago, bluewave said: EPS weeklies are going for the classic El Niño progression to colder well into February. This matches up with the MJO weakening for the first time since October in about a week. https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1086035577428938752?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet Does it look like the cold pattern will last all the way through February and into March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2019/01/16/the-polar-vortex-has-fractured-and-eastern-faces-punishing-winter/jrlhdAzeBKtcvY0d91gSOI/story.html Saying the real cold and snow pattern should begin between Jan 25-30 and last between 4-8 weeks even down to the South and what we are getting right now is just the appetizer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 29degs., or 3degs. BN. *** There had been no snow for 63 days, or about 45 of these 16 day outlooks, but I do not think it ever reported a 0" Mean output during the period in question. As JWB said "Useless,useless" lol. Month to date is +2.4[34.9]. Should be +0.7[33.0] by the 26th. EURO is 3" of Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS is a 75% chance of at least 19" by Feb. 3. ***(10" of this is for Jan. 21!, seems questionable.) 32.1* here at 6am. Wet snow look with a little snow on ground. 33.5* at 7am. 35.0* at 8am. 37.4* by 10am. 41.5 by 11am. We were lucky to see any white on the ground early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Yawn. 3/4 of an inch. Yawn. Wasnt 2006-07 something like this? Not much snow to start and then a dusting one morning? Dont know why I remember that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Inch to inch and a half near Medford.Brother in Montauk hasn't seen a flake.Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Light snow still falling here, temp 28 Have around 0.5" of accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 El Niño pattern in full effect. First measurable snowfall of met winter coming on January 18th. Just 1 day later than the first measurable snowfall during our last El Niño winter in 15-16. That one occurred on 1-17-16 for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: El Niño pattern in full effect. First measurable snowfall of met winter coming on January 18th. Just 1 day later than the first measurable snowfall during our last El Niño winter in 15-16. That one occurred on 1-17-16 for many. this is a nice overachiever here- no mixing in SW Nassau and its sticking to the roads! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 0.6 in Central Park...anything less reported is wrong LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: this is a nice overachiever here- no mixing in SW Nassau and its sticking to the roads! Many times, a transition to an eventually snowier pattern begins with a small event like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Many times, a turnaround to an eventually snowier pattern begins with a small event like this. And yet the next two systems are mostly heavy rain events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Someone alert upton the models are wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: And yet the next two systems are mostly heavy rain events. We will still be dealing with P-Type issues along the coast since the pattern still isn’t ready for a big amped up system. But a little weak system like this can pretty much stay all snow. Baby steps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edubbs83 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Really pathetic that tonight's dusting will be the most snow I've had since November. February better deliver something because this winter is top 3 worst for me as of now. How old are you? Curious because there have been a few winters with almost nothing since the 90s worse than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 37 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 0.6 in Central Park...anything less reported is wrong LOL JFK better be reporting at least an inch, anything less than that is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: We will still be dealing with P-Type issues along the coast since the pattern still isn’t ready for a big amped up system. But a little weak system like this can pretty much stay all snow. Baby steps... Personally I wouldnt mind getting like two of these events a week and staying below 32 for a month straight rather than a bunch of mixing events or even one big snowstorm and thawing right after. If we had a bunch of these little events and it stayed cold for a few weeks it would be very much like January 2009. That felt very wintry lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Personally I wouldnt mind getting like two of these events a week and staying below 32 for a month straight rather than a bunch of mixing events or even one big snowstorm and thawing right after. If we had a bunch of these little events and it stayed cold for a few weeks it would be very much like January 2009. That felt very wintry lol. Agreed but if we want a month of winter feel we still need a solid storm to lay down some kind of base. These little systems better serve as pack refreshers than builders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Snowshack said: Agreed but if we want a month of winter feel we still need a solid storm to lay down some kind of base. These little systems better serve as pack refreshers than builders. Yes the ideal combo would be a couple of big bookenders and a bunch of little events in between and after lol. Hopefully that article is right and we have 8 weeks of a really good pattern starting Jan 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Personally I wouldnt mind getting like two of these events a week and staying below 32 for a month straight rather than a bunch of mixing events or even one big snowstorm and thawing right after. If we had a bunch of these little events and it stayed cold for a few weeks it would be very much like January 2009. That felt very wintry lol. We may be able to handle an amplified storm and stay all snow sometime after the system on Jan 24-25th. Not sure if the timing will work out to the last week of January or into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: We may be able to handle an amplified storm and stay all snow sometime after the system on Jan 24-25th. Not sure if the timing will work out to the last week of January or into February. If it's February then the 2012-13 analog ends up being the best. But if the great pattern lasts for 4-8 weeks like predicted, we should have more than just one opportunity for a huge event shouldn't we? In 2012-13 we only had the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 37 minutes ago, Edubbs83 said: How old are you? Curious because there have been a few winters with almost nothing since the 90s worse than this. Over the last 25-30 years, there have only been a few complete ratters. The ones that come to mind are 11/12, 01/02, 07/08, and 97/98. 29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Personally I wouldnt mind getting like two of these events a week and staying below 32 for a month straight rather than a bunch of mixing events or even one big snowstorm and thawing right after. If we had a bunch of these little events and it stayed cold for a few weeks it would be very much like January 2009. That felt very wintry lol. Yeah no thanks. I'll take a huge snowstorm over these dusting events any day even if it were all to melt in 5-7 days. Nothing more exciting to a weenie than tracking a huge snowstorm, after all those are the storms that we remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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