January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

[bluewave]

On 1/15/2019 at 12:19 PM, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

Hopefully now you can stop with these dumb RIMM plots. 

 

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From NOAA's latest Weekly MJO Update...

 

Bottom line is that it’s having enough impact when combined with the extra tropical pattern to force enough of a SE Ridge ahead of the storm on the 20th an perhaps beyond. Subtle effects can have a large impact on our sensible weather pattern here. So we are looking at P-type issues rather than 100% snow at this point.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

Just now, bluewave said:

Bottom line is that it’s having enough impact when combined with the extra tropical pattern to force enough of a SE Ridge ahead of the storm on the 20th an perhaps beyond. 

 

There is no SE ridge , it`s a Western Atlantic Ridge and there`s a 12 hour warm up before the dam breaks.

The pull back is the EPO pops + and that`s why the trough is pulled back.

The large scale hemispheric pattern is forecast to be night day from the mid to late DEC period. 

The MJO can fly around the RIMM plots all they want the rest of the month , the impact will be minimal at best as you have a TPV sitting over you through the end of the month.

 

 

 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

You can look at the CFS / WEEKLIES / EPS / GEFS or the GFS operational and you are going to see the same 500 emerging 

 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

This is what is going to push the pattern , Go take a look at where the AO is headed as this is propagating down.

 

You guys are looking in the wrong direction and think a 1 off system and a 12 hour spike in temps is mitigating what is coming

 

 

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

There is no SE ridge , it`s a Western Atlantic Ridge and there`s a 12 hour warm up before the dam breaks.

The pull back is the EPO pops + and that`s why the trough is pulled back.

The large scale hemispheric pattern is forecast to be night day from the mid to late DEC period. 

The MJO can fly around the RIMM plots all they want the rest of the month , the impact will be minimal at best as you have a TPV sitting over you through the end of the month.

 

 

 

Same difference for the impacts on our sensible weather. Notice how the MJO moving out into 4-5 shifted the pattern enough. The old run of the GEFS didn’t have the MJO going into 4-5 yet.

old run

New run

 

 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Same difference for the impacts on our sensible weather. Notice how the MJO moving out into 4-5 shifted the pattern enough. The old run of the GEFS didn’t have the MJO going into 4-5 yet.

old run

New run

 

 

 

And look at it`s old 11 -15 

And it`s new 6 to 10 

 

Look at the new depth of the trough. 

And it`s response regardless of the MJO phase here.

 

 

The SSW effects  will be felt in the pattern and will mitigate the MJO. 

 

 

[gravitylover]

Too much reliance on a particular index, in this case the MJO, will bite you in the bum. Using any index should just be one tool in your bag. 

Thanks to @PB COLTS NECK NJ for a better mixed outlook than so many here.

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

And look at it`s old 11 -15 

 

And it`s new 6 to 10 

 

 

Look at the new depth of the trough. 

And it`s response regardless of the MJO phase here.

 

 

 

The SSW effects  will be felt in the pattern and will mitigate the MJO. 

 

 

The MJO is forecast to move back closer to phase 7 or 8 near the end of the month anyway. Combined with the other players on the field, you would expect to see the changes that are showing up on the current day 11-15. But I don’t like to jump ahead to day 11-15 before discussing what is right in front of us. Remember, subtle shifts in the 8-10 will show up 11-15. 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The MJO is forecast to move back closer to phase 7 or 8 near the end of the month anyway. Combined with the other players on the field, you would expect to see the changes that are showing up on the current day 11-15. But I don’t like to jump ahead to day 11-15 before discussing what is right in front of us. Remember, subtle shifts in the 8-10 will show up 11-15. 

 

That`s day 6 - 10 .  The pattern flipped on the 10th evident by everyday since then being BN.  The only subtle shift I see now is the 1 to 2 inch coast , 2 to 4 inch snow that falls by Friday morning.

That was not seen 5 days ago. 

Followed by some front end snow and Ice a flip to rain and temps to 10 degrees 12 hours later.

What you will find is that very cold anomalies are going to set in well before the MJO gets back to 7 / 8.

That is because it`s being muted this time. 

 

 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Too much reliance on a particular index, in this case the MJO, will bite you in the bum. Using any index should just be one tool in your bag. 

Thanks to @PB COLTS NECK NJ for a better mixed outlook than so many here.

It bit the people in the bum who were saying it wouldn’t matter for the storm track this weekend.

[bluewave]

Just now, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

That`s day 6 - 10 .  The pattern flipped on the 10th evident by everyday since then being BN.  The only subtle shift I see now is the 1 to 2 inch coast , 2 to 4 inch snow that falls by Friday morning.

That was not seen 5 days ago. 

Followed by some front end snow and Ice a flip to rain and temps to 10 degrees 12 hours later.

What you will find is that very cold anomalies are going to set in well before the MJO gets back to 7 / 8.

That is because it`s being muted this time. 

 

 

It’s always how the MJO interacts with the greater pattern. But to say it has no impact is uninformed. 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It bit the people in the bum who were saying it wouldn’t matter for the storm track this weekend.

 

Here is p4 and p5

 

 

You will be in p4 and p 5 in the 6 to 10 

 

 

Here are your 2m  in the 6 - 10 

 

 

Do you not see that the MJO is being overridden ? 

 

 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

Here is p4 and p5

 

 

 

You will be in p4 and p 5 in the 6 to 10 

 

 

 

Here are your 2m  in the 6 - 10 

 

 

 

Do you not see that the MJO is being overridden ? 

 

 

Again, it’s all how the MJO interacts with a variety of other factors. You seem to be arguing against something that was never said in the first place. Try backing off a little bit and read what was actually said.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Again, it’s all how the MJO interacts with a variety of other factors. You seem to be arguing against something that was never said in the first place. Try backing off a little bit and read what was actually said. 

You responded to my post to Brian and Snoski who looked at the RIMM plots and decided to punt Jan. 

You then said the MJO has an " effect " here, in this case it`s 12 hours worth. The rest of period both before and after have no SE ridge that one would associate with a p4 or p5.

 

 I illustrated how the MJO in 4 - 5 will have minimal effect on the pattern. 

 

Maybe that will clear it up. 

 

[bluewave]

On 1/15/2019 at 1:19 PM, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

You responded to my post to Brian and Snoski who looked at the RIMM plots and decided to punt Jan. 

You then said the MJO has an " effect " here, in this case it`s 12 hours worth. The rest of period both before and after have no SE ridge that one would associate with a p4 or p5.

 

 I illustrated how the MJO in 4 - 5 will have minimal effect on the pattern. 

 

Maybe that will clear it up. 

 

Dude..I get it that you are angry about how winter has turned out so far. You are aware there can be interactions between multiple factors that yield a hybrid pattern look. This is the first time that an MJO jumped so strongly from 8 to 4-5 in January. So we are seeing a lingering cold influence from the recent MJO 8. The 4-5 is associated with the stronger rigging ahead of the Jan 20 storm. So you get a mash up type pattern where the Arctic air rushes in behind the storm. This is one situation where general MJO composites won’t do the pattern justice due to its unique nature. Maybe if the MJO had gone through 8-2, the low would have tracked further south with less resistance from the ridge near the East Coast. So now we are talking about P-Type issues rather than 100% snow.

[SnoSki14]

The ridging effects from the MJO are clear as day for the system on the 20th and the following one on the 24/25. 

There are other influences that will negate the warming effects of the typical phase 5/6 but when it comes down to the storms, it's a net negative. 

And yeah the 11-15 looks great but it has always looked great and in the grand scheme of things it makes no difference until that pattern can manifest itself in much shorter intervals.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

What I’m confused about is why are you guys acting like this weekends event already happened? 120 hours out? With a complex setup and a storm that is still over the open pacific?

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Dude..I get it that you are angry about how winter has turned out so far. You are aware there can be interactions between multiple factors that yield a hybrid pattern look. This is the first time that an MJO jumped so strongly from 8 to 4-5 in January. So we are seeing a lingering cold influence from the recent MJO 8. The 4-5 is associated with the stronger rigging ahead of the Jan 20 storm. So you get a mash up type pattern where the Arctic air rushes in behind the storm. This is one situation where general MJO composites won’t do the pattern justice due to its unique nature. Maybe if the MJO had gone through 8-2, the low would have tracked further south with less resistance from the ridge near the East Coast.

Chris , all due respect , my start date after seeing the DEC warm up has been Jan 10. Brian will attest that I def saw the warm up starting on Dec 13 and actually bet that those following 20 days were going to be 60 % AN , I lost to someone who`s forecast was 80 %.

But I was AN. 

Then I have been adamant about my period beginning on Jan 10th ( that went off without a hitch ) and lasting thru Feb 20.

I posted in here 2 weeks ago that the coldest anomalies were going to occur during the coldest part of the winter, honestly I could not be happier with the idea. 

My point about the MJO and how some in here are looking at it is it will be muted. I am looking at the overall pattern and not just 1 system.

You are going to snow on Friday morning with the same p4 that`s going to make it rain for a while on Sunday. 

P4 - P5 have ridging thru the lakes and on into the SE.  That`s not what`s coming . It gets thwarted by the blocking that going to take place as the strat has worked it`s way down. You already have a TPV in HB that will be forcing the trough through the lakes into the midsection and on east , completely opposite of what p4- p5 - p6 does.

I am saying that the MJO effects are muted in Jan and will not in any way mimic what you saw in December. 

 

Too many gauge the pattern by their backyard , I think you will see the MJO muted here. 

 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

Chris , all due respect , my start date after seeing the DEC warm up has been Jan 10. Brian will attest that I def saw the warm up starting on Dec 13 and actually bet that those following 20 days were going to be 60 % AN , I lost to someone who`s forecast was 80 %.

But I was AN. 

Then I have been adamant about my period beginning on Jan 10th ( that went off without a hitch ) and lasting thru Feb 20.

I posted in here 2 weeks ago that the coldest anomalies were going to occur during the coldest part of the winter, honestly I could not be happier with the idea. 

My point about the MJO and how some in here are looking at it is it will be muted. I am looking at the overall pattern and not just 1 system.

You are going to snow on Friday morning with the same p4 that`s going to make it rain for a while on Sunday. 

P4 - P5 have ridging thru the lakes and on into the SE.  That`s not what`s coming . It gets thwarted by the blocking that going to take place as the strat has worked it`s way down. You already have a TPV in HB that will be forcing the trough through the lakes into the midsection and on east , completely opposite of what p4- p5 - p6 does.

I am saying that the MJO effects are muted in Jan and will not in any way mimic what you saw in December. 

 

Too many gauge the pattern by their backyard , I think you will see the MJO muted here. 

 

Again, you are arguing against an argument that I never made. Way too much of an angry vibe on these forums recently.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Again, you are arguing against an argument that I never made. Way too much of an angry vibe on these forums recently.

oh boy man , that`s not arguing or angry in the least.

You said you get it upset , I stated I couldn`t be happier the way things are evolving. 

Have a great day bro. 

 

 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The ridging effects from the MJO are clear as day for the system on the 20th and the following one on the 24/25. 

There are other influences that will negate the warming effects of the typical phase 5/6 but when it comes down to the storms, it's a net negative. 

And yeah the 11-15 looks great but it has always looked great and in the grand scheme of things it makes no difference until that pattern can manifest itself in much shorter intervals.

 

Pattern looks great now , you are going to snow Friday morning , N and W of NYC are going to get a nice snow and sleet storm on Sunday before we at the coast rain , then you`re going to 10 degrees Monday morning with the 6 to 10 , not just the 11 to 15 looking cold.

 

Do not give up on the 24/25 , that`s got a chance in this pattern.

[Juliancolton]

On 1/14/2019 at 3:30 PM, Juliancolton said:

Finally able to walk out on my pond again as of this afternoon. Thickness jumped from about 1.5" yesterday to >2.5" presently. Ice is very young and transparent... it's like looking through aquarium glass at the fish swimming below my feet.

Just measured 3.6" on the same side as the outlet stream, so probably even a little thicker farther out.

[David-LI]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

What I’m confused about is why are you guys acting like this weekends event already happened? 120 hours out? With a complex setup and a storm that is still over the open pacific?

Yo have the best models being consistent each run combined with no blocking. Just not the right setup and climo for a coastal snowstorms. I'm not throwing the towel until I see the NAM though. It has surprised us a few times in the past.

[Stormlover74]

Gfs has a nice coastal late next week but still a rainmaker

[SnoSki14]

Gfs is frigid in the LR and I buy it. The Pacific will be radically different than what we've seen. 

The polar vortex may enter the lower 48 for a time. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

56 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Yo have the best models being consistent each run combined with no blocking. Just not the right setup and climo for a coastal snowstorms. I'm not throwing the towel until I see the NAM though. It has surprised us a few times in the past.

Agreed this most likely will not be a coast all snow event for the exact reasons you stated. But we have seen things fall apart and or come together within 48 hours let alone 120. There is no way anyone can say they know exactly what’s going to happen at this point. Friday if the models show the 850 low or Montreal then it’s time to throw in the towel.

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Agreed this most likely will not be a coast all snow event for the exact reasons you stated. But we have seen things fall apart and or come together within 48 hours let alone 120. There is no way anyone can say they know exactly what’s going to happen at this point. Friday if the models show the 850 low or Montreal then it’s time to throw in the towel.

NWS service is talking about a mainly rain event. That's good enough for me to look past it and hope for the next one. 

[Rjay]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

NWS service is talking about a mainly rain event. That's good enough for me to look past it and hope for the next one. 

That would be silly.  

[weatherpruf]

Just now, Rjay said:

That would be silly.  

Why? You don't have much faith in them? They seem pretty sanguine about this one, at least from what I saw posted in the storm thread.

[Rjay]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

Why? You don't have much faith in them? They seem pretty sanguine about this one, at least from what I saw posted in the storm thread.

I have lots of faith in the NWS.  I think it would be silly to overlook the icing threat especially away from the coast.