MJO812 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Gfs is way more favorable than 12z for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Monster hit incoming on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Gfs is way more favorable than 12z for next weekend. This is going to be the biggest hit this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Weenie map for laughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Wow that is one big storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 And a nice appetizer storm friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 PV really pressing on this, there could be some hefty snow totals for those on the right side of the gradient. This will have a very hard time cutting north, and we haven't exactly seen a north trend this season. If anything it's been a south one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Lol. RIP NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 26 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs blows up the 1st wave for Friday. That might be a little treat before the main event. We want an amped up solution for Friday. The main event looks good so far. is it Friday yet lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The actual track could be like the EPS mean. Path of least resistance between the pressing PV and SE Ridge. These hugger tracks have been very frequent since the fall. I agree 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Lol. RIP NE I assume they're using 20:1 ratios for the snow depth change calc? Only explanation I can think of for having most of CT/MA/NH having twice the depth vs. the depth of snowfall using the 10:1 ratio in the graphic below. Or is it because the 10:1 ratio graphic is somehow accounting for all the sleet that falls in much of NJ/NYC metro (at 3:1 for sleet, that significantly reduces the snowfall depth), although I always thought the "includes sleet...assuming 10:1 snow:liquid ratios" graphic meant that all of the sleet LE was converted to 10:1 snow, inflating snow depths. I'm confused, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: The actual track could be like the EPS mean. Path of least resistance between the pressing PV and SE Ridge. These hugger tracks have been very frequent since the fall. It all depends on the pv. We have seen storms trend south because of it. Major signal for a storm next Sunday with a small event on friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, RU848789 said: I assume they're using 20:1 ratios for the snow depth change calc? Only explanation I can think of for having most of CT/MA/NH having twice the depth vs. the depth of snowfall using the 10:1 ratio in the graphic below. Or is it because the 10:1 ratio graphic is somehow accounting for all the sleet that falls in much of NJ/NYC metro (at 3:1 for sleet, that significantly reduces the snowfall depth), although I always thought the "includes sleet...assuming 10:1 snow:liquid ratios" graphic meant that all of the sleet LE was converted to 10:1 snow, inflating snow depths. I'm confused, lol. Usually the positive depth change map deflates weenies. Given how cold this system is progged 10:1 in interior NE is laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It all depends on the pv. We have seen storms trend south because of it. Major signal for a storm next Sunday with a small event on friday. The exact track will really differentiate who gets snow vs. sleet. Boundary temps may be very cold throughout. EPS looks good and I don't think it'll change too much in the end. Ensembles do well with big storms even as far as a week out (example being SE storm in Dec). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 As of 1 pm, Baltimore had picked up 5.6" snow and Washington, DC had received 5.4". That makes the ongoing storm the biggest snowfall in both cities since January 22-23, 2016. Washington, DC now has its snowiest winter since 2015-16 when 22.2" snow was recorded. The SOI was -9.04 today. It has been negative for 12 out of the last 14 days. The AO was -0.653. That is the 8th consecutive day the AO has been negative. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.063. On January 12, the MJO was in Phase 8 with an amplitude of 0.802(RMM). That amplitude was below the January 11-adjusted figure of 1.062. Uncertainty persists for the MJO's medium-term forecast. Taking into consideration the greater consistency of the statistical guidance, the MJO could spend an extended period at a low amplitude. The ensemble forecasts for a prolonged AO- are consistent with the MJO's being in a mainly low amplitude. A predominant AO-/PNA+ combination remains likely after mid-month. The guidance continues to hint at the development of strong to perhaps severe blocking in the medium-range. An AO-/PNA+ combination has been present for most of the region's big January snowstorms. Since 1950, 68% of New York City's, 69% of Philadelphia's, and 64% of Washington D.C.'s 6" or greater January snowfalls occurred with a AO-/PNA+ combination. Following this weekend's Middle Atlantic snowstorm, another storm could impact the region during the January 19-21 period and again during the January 23-25 period. The possibility exists for a widespread moderate to significant snowfall from either or both of these events. The potential for above normal monthly snowfall remains on the table for such cities as Baltimore, Harrisburg, Philadelphia, Allentown, New York, Islip, and possibly Providence and Boston (where 0.2" snow has fallen to date, which is the lowest figure on record through January 13). With an estimated 7.5"-8.0" through 6 pm, Washington, DC has already received above normal snowfall for January. This storm is also Washington's 104th 6" or greater snowstorm. Baltimore had received an estimated 5.9"-6.1". The probability of a colder than normal average monthly temperature in the New York City area continues to increase, especially as some of the guidance is suggesting the potential for a severe cold shot following the January 19-21 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: More likely white rain verbatim. Only surface appears to be above freezing. I’m becoming more confident Friday may be snow. The high is wedging in enough on many of today’s ensembles and the flow is weak off the water. It’s also mid January now the water isn’t 60 degrees anymore. I think maybe eastern LI would rain but probably most places snow if that track holds but we are still relatively far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 New GFS is ridiculously cold at the surface but it's a rain to sleetfest to single digit snowstorm. 2" LE pretty much everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: I am just hoping it isn’t the Valentine’s Day 2007 variety of ice and sleet hugger. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2007/us0214.php#picture That was an awesome storm. Sign me up. Still waiting for that change to rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: I am just hoping it isn’t the Valentine’s Day 2007 variety of ice and sleet hugger. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2007/us0214.php#picture That was an awesome storm. Sign me up. Still waiting for that change to rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Anything on the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Utoh, I did it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I’m becoming more confident Friday may be snow. The high is wedging in enough on many of today’s ensembles and the flow is weak off the water. It’s also mid January now the water isn’t 60 degrees anymore. I think maybe eastern LI would rain but probably most places snow if that track holds but we are still relatively far out Glad I live on the North Shore now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said: Anything on the GEFS most falls frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said: Anything on the GEFS It looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Utoh, I did it.... https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51916-january-20th-22nd-winter-storm-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Para back to a sleet/ice fest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Remember a week ago when people were panicking and declaring January over? Next weekend has major potential, but expect things to shift around a lot over the next five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, BlizzardNYC said: Para back to a sleet/ice fest A beautiful "2 LE beast. I'll gladly take 5" of sleet topped off by 4" of dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: Remember a week ago when people were panicking and declaring January over? Next weekend has major potential, but expect things to shift around a lot over the next five days. Like I said you only need one storm to get 50%+ of your seasonal average and it seems we get at least one every year now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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