NEG NAO Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 12 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: The substantial snow for nyc doesn’t come until tomorrow night-mon morn from the coastal. substantial ? sub·stan·tial /səbˈstan(t)SHəl/ adjective adjective: substantial 1. of considerable importance, size, or worth. "a substantial amount of snow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: substantial ? sub·stan·tial /səbˈstan(t)SHəl/ adjective adjective: substantial 1. of considerable importance, size, or worth. "a substantial amount of snow" Meaning couple inches maybe at least into Staten Island, Long Island. Late adjustments are north as forky has illustrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Wow sure looks as if this system traveled way farther North then was advertised on the models. Im not sure what is making it to the ground but as someone else said look at the current radar it is real close to NYC https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Tomorrow does look kinda interesting. The fact that some moisture is coming from the northern stream tonight is a good indicator that precip will be further north than forecast tomorrow with the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark McIntyre Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Got home an hour ago from a double shift in Manhattan - noticed the clouds and the smell of snow in the air. SI should be the place to be as far as NYC is concerned for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark McIntyre Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Welp the 00Z Euro is back to a zany solution. Slower and way more amped. Also gives nearly 1.0" of ice to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, Mark McIntyre said: Welp the 00Z Euro is back to a zany solution. Slower and way more amped. Also gives nearly 1.0" of ice to NYC. Almost 2" of liquid, all frozen, temps in the 20s. Either snow to sleet or major icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark McIntyre Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Almost 2" of liquid, all frozen, temps in the 20s. Either snow to sleet or major icing Yep verbaitm EURO is a devastating ice storm. I went through the December 12th 2008 ice storm in Albany. Don't want to get anywhere close to that again. It then wants to take temps subzero right after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Mark McIntyre said: Yep verbaitm EURO is a devastating ice storm. I went through the December 12th 2008 ice storm in Albany. Don't want to get anywhere close to that again. It then wants to take temps subzero right after the storm. thats actually 1.5" of ice at JFK, putting it on par with the historic Jan 1994 ice storm that was followed by subzero temps. Even if not snow, that would be something amazing to witness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark McIntyre Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, LibertyBell said: thats actually 1.5" of ice at JFK, putting it on par with the historic Jan 1994 ice storm that was followed by subzero temps. Even if not snow, that would be something amazing to witness. It's funny I don't remember that 1994 ice storm but I remember the 1993 Superstorm. As for this Euro run, it does go back to big snow totals with next weekend's storm. Please forgive me but I can't remember if this particular output includes sleet/ice pellets in the snow accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 The first system is likely snow too outside of Long Island. The SW flow will probably kill the boundary layer there. That system has potential depending on how fast that high exits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The first system is likely snow too outside of Long Island. The SW flow will probably kill the boundary layer there. That system has potential depending on how fast that high exits Models are trending toward a snowier scenario, could put down a few inches. Next weekend's system will be really interesting. There's so much cold bleeding south that it could easily press that system further south and/or keep low level temps cold. Of course given our luck this year, everything could bust and we're still looking at no snowfall or frozen by Jan 22/23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The first system is likely snow too outside of Long Island. The SW flow will probably kill the boundary layer there. That system has potential depending on how fast that high exits There are two systems with next weekend's storm aren't there? The first is rain changing to snow and the second one is all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: thats actually 1.5" of ice at JFK, putting it on par with the historic Jan 1994 ice storm that was followed by subzero temps. Even if not snow, that would be something amazing to witness. And something we can all do without. That 94 event was devastating and people were killed. Snow is kinda fun, ice storms are in the category of natural disasters. No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Starting to see some flurries here in Bethlehem PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Radar is pretty healthy on the northern extent...just to much dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Snowing lightly here. 19.8° Looks like it just started maybe 15 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Models are trending toward a snowier scenario, could put down a few inches. Next weekend's system will be really interesting. There's so much cold bleeding south that it could easily press that system further south and/or keep low level temps cold. Of course given our luck this year, everything could bust and we're still looking at no snowfall or frozen by Jan 22/23. I would just like the models to shift further to the south once it gets closer. The gfs is still showing a warm storm and the euro is too close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I would just like the models to shift further to the south once it gets closer. The gfs is still showing a warm storm and the euro is too close. Ugh usually they trend further north with time. So both of them are showing a coastal hugger right now with the low passing overhead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Flurries early today for nw NJ as per Vernon report, but so far I haven't noticed any in this part of Wantage and lower elevation (740'MSL). While there is still an option for a new resurgence later today/this evening (see GOES16 sector 1,2 IR loop of lift in OHIO Valley/nw PA), its doubtful ever to make I80 (dry low layer-attached TSEC image from the 06z/NAM for Sparta NJ). You'll see how it picked up on the Vernon flurries of early this morning. The SPC HREF ensemble (as well as drier GFS) from 12z/12 being a solid predictor of snow...keeping measurable melted w.e. to near I78. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/ If you haven't reviewed this above link, its worth a look. Imperfect like anything else but useful. Wish it were better news up here... I see 5+" so far at IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Ugh usually they trend further north with time. So both of them are showing a coastal hugger right now with the low passing overhead? Not this year The north trend has been non existent. We need a little push from the PV for the low to go under the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 We have a dusting in jersey city. Still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 25 minutes ago, wdrag said: Flurries early today for nw NJ as per Vernon report, but so far I haven't noticed any in this part of Wantage and lower elevation (740'MSL). While there is still an option for a new resurgence later today/this evening (see GOES16 sector 1,2 IR loop of lift in OHIO Valley/nw PA), its doubtful ever to make I80 (dry low layer-attached TSEC image from the 06z/NAM for Sparta NJ). You'll see how it picked up on the Vernon flurries of early this morning. The SPC HREF ensemble (as well as drier GFS) from 12z/12 being a solid predictor of snow...keeping measurable melted w.e. to near I78. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/ If you haven't reviewed this above link, its worth a look. Imperfect like anything else but useful. Wish it were better news up here... I see 5+" so far at IAD. Snow has stopped here at the moment. Just a light dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 33degs., or about 1deg. AN. EURO is again up to 12" for the next 10 days. GEFS is 60% chance of at least 10" by the 29th. 19th to 21st looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days averaging 33degs., or about 1deg. AN. EURO is again up to 12" for the next 10 days. GEFS is 60% chance of at least 10" by the 29th. 19th to 21st looks nice. Nice to see this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Light snow here Dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Pretty decent band of snow here. Everything is covered, roads, grass, cars, etc. Got about half an inch on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 The snow is sticking on contact Looks nice outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Light snow here Dusting ..not bad, ant..out here its overcast with no snow falling. 24*..noticed barometric pressures v. high. ohhh so close.. and if next weekend turns into a Rainer you're going to see some serious melting going on for us L.I.ders..i've started already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Light snow here in bed stuy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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