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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations


Rtd208

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12 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

The substantial snow for nyc doesn’t come until tomorrow night-mon morn from the coastal. 

substantial ?

sub·stan·tial
/səbˈstan(t)SHəl/  
adjective
adjective: substantial
  1. 1.
    of considerable importance, size, or worth.
    "a substantial amount of snow"
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Just now, NEG NAO said:

substantial ?

sub·stan·tial
/səbˈstan(t)SHəl/  
adjective
adjective: substantial
  1. 1.
    of considerable importance, size, or worth.
    "a substantial amount of snow"

Meaning couple inches maybe at least into Staten Island, Long Island. Late adjustments are north as forky has illustrated 

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3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Almost 2" of liquid, all frozen, temps in the 20s. Either snow to sleet or major icing

Yep verbaitm EURO is a devastating ice storm.  I went through the December 12th 2008 ice storm in Albany. Don't want to get anywhere close to that again.

It then wants to take temps subzero right after the storm.

 

ecmwf_t2m_nj_39.png

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2 minutes ago, Mark McIntyre said:

Yep verbaitm EURO is a devastating ice storm.  I went through the December 12th 2008 ice storm in Albany. Don't want to get anywhere close to that again.

It then wants to take temps subzero right after the storm.

 

ecmwf_t2m_nj_39.png

thats actually 1.5" of ice at JFK, putting it on par with the historic Jan 1994 ice storm that was followed by subzero temps.

Even if not snow, that would be something amazing to witness.

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

thats actually 1.5" of ice at JFK, putting it on par with the historic Jan 1994 ice storm that was followed by subzero temps.

Even if not snow, that would be something amazing to witness.

It's funny I don't remember that 1994 ice storm but I remember the 1993 Superstorm.

As for this Euro run, it does go back to big snow totals with next weekend's storm. Please forgive me but I can't remember if this particular output includes sleet/ice pellets in the snow accumulation.

 

 

ecmwf_tsnow_nyc_41.png

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The first system is likely snow too outside of Long Island.  The SW flow will probably kill the boundary layer there.  That system has potential depending on how fast that high exits 

Models are trending toward a snowier scenario, could put down a few inches. 

Next weekend's system will be really interesting. There's so much cold bleeding south that it could easily press that system further south and/or keep low level temps cold. 

Of course given our luck this year, everything could bust and we're still looking at no snowfall or frozen by Jan 22/23. 

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The first system is likely snow too outside of Long Island.  The SW flow will probably kill the boundary layer there.  That system has potential depending on how fast that high exits 

There are two systems with next weekend's storm aren't there? The first is rain changing to snow and the second one is all snow?

 

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9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

thats actually 1.5" of ice at JFK, putting it on par with the historic Jan 1994 ice storm that was followed by subzero temps.

Even if not snow, that would be something amazing to witness.

And something we can all do without. That 94 event was devastating and people were killed. Snow is kinda fun, ice storms are in the category of natural disasters. No thanks.

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3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models are trending toward a snowier scenario, could put down a few inches. 

Next weekend's system will be really interesting. There's so much cold bleeding south that it could easily press that system further south and/or keep low level temps cold. 

Of course given our luck this year, everything could bust and we're still looking at no snowfall or frozen by Jan 22/23. 

I would just like the models to shift further to the south once it gets closer.

The gfs is still showing a warm storm and the euro is too close.

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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I would just like the models to shift further to the south once it gets closer.

The gfs is still showing a warm storm and the euro is too close.

Ugh usually they trend further north with time.  So both of them are showing a coastal hugger right now with the low passing overhead?

 

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Flurries early today for nw NJ as per Vernon report, but so far I haven't noticed any in this part of Wantage and lower elevation (740'MSL).  While there is still an option for a new resurgence later today/this evening (see GOES16 sector 1,2 IR loop of lift in OHIO Valley/nw PA), its doubtful ever to make I80 (dry low layer-attached TSEC image from the 06z/NAM for Sparta NJ). You'll see how it picked up on the Vernon flurries of early this morning. The SPC HREF ensemble (as well as drier GFS) from 12z/12 being a solid predictor of snow...keeping measurable melted w.e. to near I78. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/

If you haven't reviewed this above link, its worth a look.  Imperfect like anything else but useful.  

Wish it were better news up here... I see 5+" so far at IAD.

 

Screen Shot 2019-01-13 at 5.42.38 AM.png

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6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Ugh usually they trend further north with time.  So both of them are showing a coastal hugger right now with the low passing overhead?

 

Not this year

The north trend has been non existent.

We need a little push from the PV for the low to go under the area.

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25 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Flurries early today for nw NJ as per Vernon report, but so far I haven't noticed any in this part of Wantage and lower elevation (740'MSL).  While there is still an option for a new resurgence later today/this evening (see GOES16 sector 1,2 IR loop of lift in OHIO Valley/nw PA), its doubtful ever to make I80 (dry low layer-attached TSEC image from the 06z/NAM for Sparta NJ). You'll see how it picked up on the Vernon flurries of early this morning. The SPC HREF ensemble (as well as drier GFS) from 12z/12 being a solid predictor of snow...keeping measurable melted w.e. to near I78. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/

If you haven't reviewed this above link, its worth a look.  Imperfect like anything else but useful.  

Wish it were better news up here... I see 5+" so far at IAD.

 

Screen Shot 2019-01-13 at 5.42.38 AM.png

Snow has stopped here at the moment. Just a light dusting.

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7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Light snow here

Dusting

..not bad, ant..out here its overcast with no snow falling.

24*..noticed barometric pressures v. high.

ohhh so close.. and if next weekend turns into a Rainer you're going

to see some serious melting going on for us L.I.ders..i've started already.

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