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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations


Rtd208

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs is the only one with the 2 lows

Why are you worried? Earthlight and others told you that the the mjo doesn't really have an effect on the pattern when a ssw occurs.

This is correct. A piece of the PV is in Canada. It WILL have and effect but more muted than lest few weeks. May HELP keep the PV from suppressing too much.

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5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Why are you calling every run with alot of snow clown maps? 

So if the euro comes in with alot of snow , is that a clown map?

Maybe it's overdoing it but the signal for a big storm is gaining for next weekend. 

Mjo is favorable

Pna and Ao are also favorable

MJO is favorable in 4 and 5 ???

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

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1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

exactly just goes to show you not to trust what the models are advertising for next weekend - who wants to be in the bullseye over 200hours out ?

Right. let's see if we can get an accumulating snow event of 4-8 inches, no? Cause we haven't seen even that since Nov...18+ storms just ain't common in my backyard. though if it's gonna happen this is the time of the year.

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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Looks great but more squashed than 0z because the pv is pressing more on this run and the wave before the storm was stronger

Southern stream lagging too. Snowing with sub-zero wind chills in NYC is nothing to sneeze at. That airmass pressing in looks brutal.

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9 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

there's a low chance the coastal gets enough room to amplify and give us a surprise tomorrow night

if enough of the system is left intact after the PV lobe swings through then it has plenty of room to amplify and come north

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