snowman19 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: If you check out other forums , they arent worried about the mjo. Ssw might trumph the mjo. The problem would be if it gains amplitude in phases 4&5. Then we will have issues at the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: If you check out other forums , they arent worried about the mjo. Ssw might trumph the mjo. LOL. People not being worried about something doesn't mean it's right or wrong...lots of busting this winter so far...been a tough forecast all around...anyone predict a snowless first half of met winter out there??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: If you check out other forums , they arent worried about the mjo. Ssw might trumph the mjo. what regions are these posters from that aren't worried about it ? Even though some models show a MECS next weekend now - if they adjust to the 4 5 MJO then they probably will adjust west - so whoever gets a foot of snow out of this weekends system in the mid- atlantic might be dealing with flooding issues next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: what regions are these posters from that aren't worried about it ? Even though some models show a MECS next weekend now - if they adjust to the 4 5 MJO then they probably will adjust west - so whoever gets a foot of snow out of this weekends system in the mid- atlantic might be dealing with flooding issues next weekend... I'd tend to agree-we don't want a phase 5, but the Euro is going strongrt with it each run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: nightmare of 2/5/10 relived That one was pure torture as the cut off was quite extreme and closer to our area than this one will likely be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I'd tend to agree-we don't want a phase 5, but the Euro is going strongrt with it each run... No it isn't, very low amplitude MJO that cycles through 5/6 for a few days. I'm not sure it even gets out of COD. Not worried about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 34 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: what regions are these posters from that aren't worried about it ? Even though some models show a MECS next weekend now - if they adjust to the 4 5 MJO then they probably will adjust west - so whoever gets a foot of snow out of this weekends system in the mid- atlantic might be dealing with flooding issues next weekend... Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: No it isn't, very low amplitude MJO that cycles through 5/6 for a few days. I'm not sure it even gets out of COD. Not worried about it. Agree People are getting worried for no reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Cmc develops a strong low along the front next weekend with a big snowstorm. Gfs does the same but it's warmer ( colder than 6z and further south ) It then develops another low behind it which skims the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Cmc develops a strong low along the front next weekend with a big snowstorm. Gfs does the same but it's warmer ( colder than 6z and further south ) It then develops another low behind it which slims the coast. It’s getting very hard now because of the first system ahead of it. That could potentially help or hurt things depending what it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: No it isn't, very low amplitude MJO that cycles through 5/6 for a few days. I'm not sure it even gets out of COD. Not worried about it. You better hope this is wrong then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s getting very hard now because of the first system ahead of it. That could potentially help or hurt things depending what it does Gfs is the only one with the 2 lows 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: You better hope this is wrong then.... Why are you worried? Earthlight and others told you that the the mjo doesn't really have an effect on the pattern when a ssw occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 The push of cold air from the pv helped the low go further south on the 12z gfs run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 49 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: nightmare of 2/5/10 relived Not really, that storm delivered to well within CNJ. This one doesn't look to get past SNJ. There have been a number of storms over the years in the past that were SNJ and nothing here. Since this storm was never really a threat here, meh. On 2/6/10, I was teased with 3 inches. Now that kinda sucked, knowing 30 mins down the turnpike they had a foot or more. And more as you went south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 54 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: LOL. People not being worried about something doesn't mean it's right or wrong...lots of busting this winter so far...been a tough forecast all around...anyone predict a snowless first half of met winter out there??? No, but if IIRC the weather service kinda had us in the milder zone, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 19 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Cmc develops a strong low along the front next weekend with a big snowstorm. Gfs does the same but it's warmer ( colder than 6z and further south ) It then develops another low behind it which skims the coast. from the Damn CMC 's lips to Mother Natures ears !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: from the Damn CMC 's lips to Mother Natures ears !!!! CMC another clown in the circus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: CMC another clown in the circus You do realize all the models and ensembles have this signal ? We don't know the track just yet but the signal is big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: from the Damn CMC 's lips to Mother Natures ears !!!! Gfs came more south and colder from 6z but still rain but then develops a coastal low with the 2nd low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: No, but if IIRC the weather service kinda had us in the milder zone, no? Majority of forecasts had a mild december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Too many people staring at RMM plots when we have big time potential in the not too distance future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Too many people staring at RMM plots when we have big time potential in the not too distance future. I agree A lot of potential coming up. Hopefully we can cash in. The para gfs is very snowy through 300 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Too many people staring at RMM plots when we have big time potential in the not too distance future. From my perspective, just seeing some storms getting together shows we have some potential to get hit with something. ( rain and ice storms don't count! ) Whether it's a snow or sleet event, or a mixed one with a nice thump, we'll see. But ya gotta have some systems that aren't all rain coming along; maybe we're starting to see that with the changing pattern. I'll leave the rest up to the experts here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Anyone know why the FV3 is so slow to come out on Tropical Tidbits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I like the potential moving forward. Let's not get caught up in track details yet. Too far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 21 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Anyone know why the FV3 is so slow to come out on Tropical Tidbits? Para is already out on ncep Shows alot of snow for the interior and a mix for the coast to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Fv3 is INSANE for the 20th time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: I like the potential moving forward. Let's not get caught up in track details yet. Too far away. Best potential by far this winter Still many runs to go for track and precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said: Fv3 is INSANE for the 20th time frame Ridiculous is what I would call it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Animal said: Ridiculous is what I would call it. Snowmap through 300 is insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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