LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: A very negative nao would be great for the Mid Atlantic. A negative epo would be nice for our area. Okay so for us the best thing would be a neutral to slightly negative NAO with a negative EPO regardless of where the MJO is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 16 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Which makes me nervous. Cutter and suppression come to mind. I would feel a lot more confident if this event was inside 5 days. lol we seem to be in a thread the needle kind of pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: While it may seem like a long shot, there is a way the MJO and -EPO could work for us around Jan 20th. Even a less amplified move into 4-5 could pump the WAR just enough to prevent suppression like this weekends event. So we would need either a less amplified solution or a two wave low pressure event. A less amplified event would slide underneath and not get suppressed. A two wave event would have the first low come through warmer and drag the cold front to our east. The second low would overrun the front that gets pushed to our south. But it would take a perfect thread the needle effect to get the job done. Just a little bit off and it wouldn’t work. The lead wave coming out too amped would be warm and suppress the second wave to our south. Or the second wave never forms. All we can say from a climatology standpoint is that snowfall prospects generally improve with El Niño’s after Jan 15th. Chris, is this going to be a multiday storm? From wunderground maps, they're showing rain starting Friday and into Saturday and then changing to snow during the day Saturday which will last through Monday morning? That would ruin the chances for the eclipse, which is at totality from 11:41 pm Sunday night to 12:43 am Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 40 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Which makes me nervous. Cutter and suppression come to mind. I would feel a lot more confident if this event was inside 5 days. it should make you nervous since nothing has worked out in 2 months - plus the MJO which has been driving this pattern has to change - its scheduled to go into 4 and or 5 for about a week starting later next week - a chance there might be a coast hugger or cutter next weekend - which is a mixed bag or rain...……... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Para gfs has about a foot for NYC with over 20 inches for inland areas lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: it should make you nervous since nothing has worked out in 2 months - plus the MJO which has been driving this pattern has to change - its scheduled to go into 4 and or 5 for about a week starting later next week - a chance there might be a coast hugger or cutter next weekend - which is a mixed bag or rain...……... Weak amplitude if it does go into 4 or 5 which isn't a certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: There is no way to know from so far out in time if it wil be a two parter. All the solutions a few days ago were really amped up on the lead wave. Now the models are showing out a wide variety of solutions. But it would take a thread the needle event to get the job done. Two part events can be very tricky with many moving parts that need to go right. Yes thats what I was thinking too which is why they mostly go wrong lol. We haven't had many multiday events, I think December 2003 was the most notable one I can think of. The last storm in January 2011 was multipart but not multiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 21 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Para gfs has about a foot for NYC with over 20 inches for inland areas lol that might be why wunderground shows 7-14 for us spread out over 3 days and 11-19 for inland areas spread out over 4 days lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 24 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Para gfs has about a foot for NYC with over 20 inches for inland areas lol you forgot to mention the complex way it gets to the foot starting out with this - unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 8 hours ago, RU848789 said: People in DC/Balt/DelMarVa might not want to look at this. And not a flake north of about 195. Kind of like the 12Z GFS. Although the CMC, FV3, NAM, RGEM, etc., still look pretty good down in those areas. But I'd be a little nervous... My apologies. I pasted the 6 hour precip panel from the 0Z UK for 1 pm to 7 pm Sunday, thinking it was the cumulative precip from 7 pm Friday to 7 pm Sunday. Here's the actual cumulative precip for that 48 hour period (presumably all snow, except maybe the lower DelMarVa), which is still pretty good for DC/Balt/DelMarVa and even into far southern NJ and even into CNJ with the 1" line around 195 (and even maybe 1/2" at my house, lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, this pattern can’t handle a really amped up storm and stay cold near the coast. So we would need a weaker solution or one with 2 waves. Two wave solutions or anafrontal snows can be really tricky to rely on. I've been thinking that all season because pretty much every storm including the one snow storm we did have was a hugger and eventually changed to rain. We have had zero benchmark tracks, not this winter not even in the fall. Three tracks- hugger, cutter, and suppressed/well offshore track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 NAM and Euro just dropped 12-18” cold powder on DC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: NAM and Euro just dropped 12-18” cold powder on DC proper It also drops close to a foot for SNJ. Coastal is closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: It also drops close to a foot for SNJ. Coastal is closer. You're talking the current storm, Ant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 10 hours ago, Juliancolton said: I've been stuck at 13F for two hours. The air mass has been exhausted... just need the wind to die down now. I was up for a bit early this morning and the heat was kicking on frequently so I checked and it was 11*. Cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 This is Feb-2010 level steep gradient. Can't believe this would verify, but it's just nuts if it does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: If the Euro verifies that MJO push into 4-5, then it will be a first for the month of January. The MJO has never gone into 4-5 so soon after such an amplfied move through phase 8 in January. Records go back to the mid 70’s. What do you think that would mean for our weather if it were to verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, RU848789 said: This is Feb-2010 level steep gradient. Can't believe this would verify, but it's just nuts if it does... 8 to 10 inches of snow might not be out of the question, even for South Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Yes thats what I was thinking too which is why they mostly go wrong lol. We haven't had many multiday events, I think December 2003 was the most notable one I can think of. The last storm in January 2011 was multipart but not multiday. I was just thinking of the 12/03 event. It was fun...but never really panned out to all the hype of a 1-2 punch that was forecast. It was supposed to be a snowstorm/blizzard combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 RGEM just jogged a good bit NW. Too little way too late. It's amazing looking at national radar to think we probably don't see a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: RGEM just jogged a good bit NW. Too little way too late. It's amazing looking at national radar to think we probably don't see a flake. Radar looks great . You would think a big snowstorm is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Confluence is going to act like a cheese grater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Confluence is going to act like a cheese grater Yeah. SNJ is a forecast nightmare. Some places went from 0.3" to 0.75" to even 2.0" QPF(NAM) on some guidance in a single run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 The Sref is hilarious here, especially just south of the metro hours 30-48. Not much chance it’s correct though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 44 minutes ago, bluewave said: If the MJO can maintain good enough amplitude through 4-5, then maybe we get another chance at 7-1 near the start of February. But we often have to wait until the phases verify to see how the models actually correct on the 500 mb pattern. Sometimes it takes the models a while to catch up with the actual MJO. It can lead to very wide day 11-15 model swings. A strong phase 5 is warm isn't it? I would think we see models back off on the cold next week if (big if) that's correct.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Sref is hilarious here, especially just south of the metro hours 30-48. Not much chance it’s correct though Didn't we say that back in Nov? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Sref is hilarious here, especially just south of the metro hours 30-48. Not much chance it’s correct though SREF: Simply Ridiculously Erroneous Forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 38 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Confluence is going to act like a cheese grater Yep. The northern part of the shield is going to get shredded by confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 41 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Radar looks great . You would think a big snowstorm is on the way. nightmare of 2/5/10 relived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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