MJO812 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: heard that a few weeks ago. Until things get within the 4-5 day range, I'd be cautious.... Heard it from who? All the forecast I have seen had the 2nd half being colder and here we are. Pattern has changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Heard it from who? All the forecast I have seen had the 2nd half being colder and here we are. Pattern has changed LOL-really dude? Sure it will be colder, that's not much of a stretch after a warm dec and 1st 10 days of Jan that averaged +7. That's kind of like saying the 2nd half will be snowier than the first half of winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Could easily be warm and mostly rain and then back to coldish and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Could easily be warm and mostly rain and then back to coldish and dry Been the seasonal pattern so far....and the 20th could easily be a cutter (followed by cold) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 53 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Social media is part of the problem too-people post ridiculous maps that have no chance of verifying and the hype machine in general gets worse every year. Years like 93-94, 95-96, 14-15 are thrown out way too often as analogs... I completely agree with you regarding analog years. Those years along with 76-77 and 77-78 were tossed out there by numerous people. Those years are more than 40 years ago. At that time the big concern was about the planet cooling. Those years are going to be biased towards colder weather. We now live in the time of global warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I completely agree with you regarding analog years. Those years along with 76-77 and 77-78 were tossed out there by numerous people. Those years are more than 40 years ago. At that time the big concern was about the planet cooling. Those years are going to be biased towards colder weather. We now live in the time of global warming. A few people like HM were posting often in the fall that the stratosphere argued strongly against anything like 02-03 or 09-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: A few people like HM were posting often in the fall that the stratosphere argued strongly against anything like 02-03 or 09-10 those years were also in the heart of the warm AMO with a warm north atlantic that would enhance blocking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: A few people like HM were posting often in the fall that the stratosphere argued strongly against anything like 02-03 or 09-10 I saw several forecasts which included those years as analog years. I think the vast majority of people(non mets) who come up with their own winter forecasts are ones who love snow/cold. And I think their bias towards cold and snow influences their forecasts. The majority of seasonal forecasts that are posted within the various forums here and elsewhere online are winter forecasts. There are not many spring/summer/fall forecasts posted. The same happens when untrained weather hobbyists look at model runs. Some find a snowstorm hit in every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I saw several forecasts which included those years as analog years. I think the vast majority of people(non mets) who come up with their own winter forecasts are ones who love snow/cold. And I think their bias towards cold and snow influences their forecasts. The majority of seasonal forecasts that are posted within the various forums here and elsewhere online are winter forecasts. There are not many spring/summer/fall forecasts posted. The same happens when untrained mets look at model runs. Some find a snowstorm hit in every run. I feel like its been closer to 94-95 with the warmth and rain minus the early season snowstorm. Maybe we'll get one good hit like the early feb storm that year. Central Park had .2" going into Feb and ended with 11.8. Nearly all of it in the one storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 43 minutes ago, bluewave said: This will still be a less impressive cool down for NYC than the one in November. The November coldest minimum was 15 and the low max was 28 degrees. NYC is already 27 degrees without any lows near 15 for the remainder of this cool down. I think some real arctic air comes down into our area after 20th-22nd threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 UK is a bit snowier for Sunday (first time in awhile it's shown any snow N or 78, if I recall correctly) as are some other models - not saying we're going to get hammered, but I'm thinking an inch is in range for my area (Edison, where 0.5-1.0" seems to be the 12Z consensus), which is way better than cirrus. The RPDS is even more bullish, while the NAM and GFS show ~1/2" for the Edison area - and the Euro is somewhere between 0.5-1.0", which is an improvement from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: those years were also in the heart of the warm AMO with a warm north atlantic that would enhance blocking.... Great post. +AMO not only favors NATL blocking (-NAO), it also strongly favors more KU events. I don’t think the recent streak of +NAO winters since we’ve begun going into a -AMO is any coincidence. As we get deeper into the long term -AMO cycle, I’m willing to bet that we see a real big drop in the number of KU’s and majority +NAO winters coming up in the next decade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 On a more postive note, the Euro is adjusting the polar vortex south on this run, should see a better solution for the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: On a more postive note, the Euro is adjusting the polar vortex south on this run, should see a better solution for the 20th. yup, going to be big. hope the EPS makes the same changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, purduewx80 said: yup, going to be big. hope the EPS makes the same changes. Gefs and geps show a coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: yup, going to be big. hope the EPS makes the same changes. now its just a matter of fiquring out whats going to go wrong...……..this how we get fooled shows it at 9 days then come early next week things change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 OMG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Looks like the typical OP Euro digging the PV too much over SE Canada days 8-10. For some reason the OP loves to do this at that range. Dude look at the ensembles. They all show the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Looks like the typical OP Euro digging the PV too much over SE Canada days 8-10. For some reason the OP loves to do this at that range. Yep, was exactly a week ago that the 12Z run showed this weekend's storm as a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I completely agree with you regarding analog years. Those years along with 76-77 and 77-78 were tossed out there by numerous people. Those years are more than 40 years ago. At that time the big concern was about the planet cooling. Those years are going to be biased towards colder weather. We now live in the time of global warming. Having lived through the many winters of the 70s and 80s and early 90s I can assure you that there was no bias towards colder weather. You do know that there was a period of 20 years back then where there were only 4 KU events in the region. Average annual snowfalls were much less than they are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 55 minutes ago, RU848789 said: UK is a bit snowier for Sunday (first time in awhile it's shown any snow N or 78, if I recall correctly) as are some other models - not saying we're going to get hammered, but I'm thinking an inch is in range for my area (Edison, where 0.5-1.0" seems to be the 12Z consensus), which is way better than cirrus. The RPDS is even more bullish, while the NAM and GFS show ~1/2" for the Edison area - and the Euro is somewhere between 0.5-1.0", which is an improvement from yesterday. The soundings on many of the models I’ve looked at aren’t horrifyingly dry. The Euro does get precip as far north as NYC. It’s not impossible if we get a 30-40 mile adjustment north some people might at least be able to say their shutout is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Very cold storm next weekend on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Very cold storm next weekend on the Euro It went from 50s to single digits in 1 run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I'm pretty exhausted from shoveling all the digital snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, Dan76 said: I'm pretty exhausted from shoveling all the digital snow. I'm pretty exhausted people are giving up in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 DC gets over 30 inches next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: DC gets over 30 inches next weekend Yeah we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowheavyattimes Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: DC gets over 30 inches next weekend I’ll take half of that and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: DC gets over 30 inches next weekend drop the 3 and those are the exact odds of that happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like the typical OP Euro digging the PV too much over SE Canada days 8-10. For some reason the OP loves to do this at that range. PV will be key here. I too wouldn't be so sure it'll be that far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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