LibertyBell Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 4 inches of sleet here with that one Yea I remember my doors got stuck shut with that one lol, 3-6 inches of sleet across our area. Both that and the VD7 storm were okay because they never changed to rain (maybe freezing rain just at the end.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yea I remember my doors got stuck shut with that one lol, 3-6 inches of sleet across our area. Both that and the VD7 storm were okay because they never changed to rain (maybe freezing rain just at the end.) I was working in new Hyde park at the time and there was a big difference between there and South Wantagh. I don’t think we ever went above freezing there with a bunch of ice accretion and it changed to plain rain at my house. I don’t think we have to worry about a repeat of that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 NYC has a shot at its 6th year since 2000 with a 60 degree temperature during the first week of January. What a difference from last year when the high for the week was only 30 degrees. 1 2007-01-07 72 0 2 2000-01-07 64 0 3 2012-01-07 62 0 - 2008-01-07 62 0 5 2005-01-07 60 0 6 2004-01-07 58 0 7 2015-01-07 56 0 8 2014-01-07 55 0 9 2011-01-07 53 0 10 2017-01-07 52 0 11 2006-01-07 50 0 - 2003-01-07 50 0 13 2016-01-07 46 0 - 2013-01-07 46 0 15 2009-01-07 43 0 - 2002-01-07 43 0 - 2001-01-07 43 0 18 2010-01-07 40 0 19 2018-01-07 30 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Good Monday morning-Dec 31, fwiw... i added my comments to the 12/26 second post on this 11 day period upcoming. It's there if you wish to review. No major change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Not a good look with this westward propagating ERW if you're hoping for cold anytime soon. High AAM base state remains, which means we're settling more into a P5 forcing look for now. I still like that post Jan 5-6 Jan period for a coastal, but if it's anything it's a thread the needle situation. The tropic setup is just not correct for major cold air transport to accompany it. Other than that, SSW remains a red herring for now. Way, way too much chatter and "talking your book" went on with that feature which I've noted already. Tropics and AAM running the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 16 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: Not a good look with this westward propagating ERW if you're hoping for cold anytime soon. High AAM base state remains, which means we're settling more into a P5 forcing look for now. I still like that post Jan 5-6 Jan period for a coastal, but if it's anything it's a thread the needle situation. The tropic setup is just not correct for major cold air transport to accompany it. Other than that, SSW remains a red herring for now. Way, way too much chatter and "talking your book" went on with that feature which I've noted already. Tropics and AAM running the show. My guess is that we will need to wait until the MJO moves into Phase 7 for material improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Yea I remember my doors got stuck shut with that one lol, 3-6 inches of sleet across our area. Both that and the VD7 storm were okay because they never changed to rain (maybe freezing rain just at the end.) I had 5 inches of sleet with temps in the teens in vday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: My guess is that we will need to wait until the MJO moves into Phase 7 for material improvements. Looks like we will be in 6 pretty soon and then 7 by mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 33 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: Not a good look with this westward propagating ERW if you're hoping for cold anytime soon. High AAM base state remains, which means we're settling more into a P5 forcing look for now. I still like that post Jan 5-6 Jan period for a coastal, but if it's anything it's a thread the needle situation. The tropic setup is just not correct for major cold air transport to accompany it. Other than that, SSW remains a red herring for now. Way, way too much chatter and "talking your book" went on with that feature which I've noted already. Tropics and AAM running the show. Thanks. In your opinion, do you think the flip to a colder pattern will still occur, or are you of the belief that this is the weather for the lionshare of winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 I am going to track the Ball Drop conditions starting today, at 120hrs. out, using the GFS: 120hrs >>> 52 Light Rain. 114hrs >>> 56 Rain Next 7 days averaging 45degs., or about 10/11degs. AN, through the 3rd. 108hrs >>> 50 Light Rain 102hrs >>> 46 Hvy. Rain 96hrs >>> 59 Rain 90hrs >>> 59 Light Rain Next 7 days averaging 42degs., or about 7/8degs. AN, through the 4th. 84hrs >>> 58 Light Rain 78hrs >>> 54 Rain 72hrs >>> 56 Light Rain 66hrs >>> 53 Light Rain Next 7 days averaging 44degs., or about 10degs. AN, through the 5th. 60hrs >>> 54 Rain 54hrs >>> 54 Rain 48hrs >>> 56 Rain 42hrs >>> 55 Hvy. Rain Next 7 days averaging 43degs., or about 9degs. AN, through the 6th. Taken literally, we would have 1 32* day in a 19 day period{12/20-1/6|. 36hrs >>> 55 Rain 30hrs >>> 54 Rain 24hrs >>> 54 Rain 18hrs >>> 53 Rain Next 7 days averaging 43degs., or about 9/10degs. AN, through the 7th. (Next 30 on CFS 18AN 12BN) 12hrs >>> 53 Hvy. Rain 06hrs >>> 50 Rain Final Prediction Actual by me at midnight 49.5*, Lt. Rain, Ground Hugging Fog. Made for strange fireworks display here. Shells exploding just above the fog, and illuminating it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks. In your opinion, do you think the flip to a colder pattern will still occur, or are you of the belief that this is the weather for the lionshare of winter? I do think it will occur in time, but I've been rewarded every single time I've preached delay. I don't see a reason to rush things, and with MJO support becoming a lot less clear now, we're once again in a less favorable look than we (the met community at large) thought. This Indian Ocean convection is a major problem, and I don't believe most of us meteorologists are skilled enough to be able to discern what a westward propagating ERW does to the pattern better than these models. I think my own comments mete that out. To me, the main thing I'm noting is this high AAM base state. We need that to go away before we can start more seriously talking about sustainability in any notable cold. I'm a bit surprised at how bad the Pacific looks right now. That'll take some time to undo. By the way, I was never of the opinion that the SSW guaranteed cold in December in January. The basis for my view was and has been MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 7 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: I do think it will occur in time, but I've been rewarded every single time I've preached delay. I don't see a reason to rush things, and with MJO support becoming a lot less clear now, we're once again in a less favorable look than we (the met community at large) thought. This Indian Ocean convection is a major problem, and I don't believe most of us meteorologists are skilled enough to be able to discern what a westward propagating ERW does to the pattern better than these models. I think my own comments mete that out. To me, the main thing I'm noting is this high AAM base state. We need that to go away before we can start more seriously talking about sustainability in any notable cold. I'm a bit surprised at how bad the Pacific looks right now. That'll take some time to undo. By the way, I was never of the opinion that the SSW guaranteed cold in December in January. The basis for my view was and has been MJO. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 I continue to like the period to begin sometime around Jan 10. My target period has been Jan 10 - Feb 20. We are currently in p6 and should heading around into p8 over the next 2 weeks. We will have to wait for the p6 lag to bleed off so even though we head into p7 I think the transition will begin close to the 10th. After that the alterations on the EPS day 9 - 14 vs yesterdays d 10 - 15 are already heading towards the GEFS which I like better. Hopefully these maps downloaded.. I don`t agree with the EURO taking the MJO into the null p after p7. The strat began to warm back on Dec 20 and it was similar to the warming that took place on Feb 20 earlier this year. The effects from that event ran from March 10 - April 20. So this year the SSW event is a full 2 months earlier ( no 2 events are the same ) but the modeling looks like it wants to develop 3 vortexes. One in Europe , One in Eurasia and One in the N/E N/A. These tend to run for about 60 days ( the caveat is where are they splitting ) . I think this one works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Looks like another 1-2” of rain tonight with locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 22 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: I continue to like the period to begin sometime around Jan 10. My target period has been Jan 10 - Feb 20. We are currently in p6 and should heading around into p8 over the next 2 weeks. We will have to wait for the p6 lag to bleed off so even though we head into p7 I think the transition will begin close to the 10th. After that the alterations on the EPS day 9 - 14 vs yesterdays d 10 - 15 are already heading towards the GEFS which I like better. Hopefully these maps downloaded.. I don`t agree with the EURO taking the MJO into the null p after p7. The strat began to warm back on Dec 20 and it was similar to the warming that took place on Feb 20 earlier this year. The effects from that event ran from March 10 - April 20. So this year the SSW event is a full 2 months earlier ( no 2 events are the same ) but the modeling looks like it wants to develop 3 vortexes. One in Europe , One in Eurasia and One in the N/E N/A. These tend to run for about 60 days ( the caveat is where are they splitting ) . I think this one works. Betting against the EURO ? Always a risky proposition IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 28 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: I continue to like the period to begin sometime around Jan 10. My target period has been Jan 10 - Feb 20. We are currently in p6 and should heading around into p8 over the next 2 weeks. We will have to wait for the p6 lag to bleed off so even though we head into p7 I think the transition will begin close to the 10th. After that the alterations on the EPS day 9 - 14 vs yesterdays d 10 - 15 are already heading towards the GEFS which I like better. Hopefully these maps downloaded.. I don`t agree with the EURO taking the MJO into the null p after p7. The strat began to warm back on Dec 20 and it was similar to the warming that took place on Feb 20 earlier this year. The effects from that event ran from March 10 - April 20. So this year the SSW event is a full 2 months earlier ( no 2 events are the same ) but the modeling looks like it wants to develop 3 vortexes. One in Europe , One in Eurasia and One in the N/E N/A. These tend to run for about 60 days ( the caveat is where are they splitting ) . I think this one works. 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Betting against the EURO ? Always a risky proposition IMO. He rarely bets against the euro mjo progression but others are doing it also. The Euro has been struggling with the mjo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Betting against the EURO ? Always a risky proposition IMO. Euro finally moves the mjo into 8 and then cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro finally moves the mjo into 8 and then cod COD is not such a bad location for the MJO - some of our MECS have occurred while in the COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: COD is not such a bad location for the MJO - some of our MECS have occurred while in the COD. Agree Lets hope it it goes back into 7 8 or 1 when it comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 19 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Betting against the EURO ? Always a risky proposition IMO. And here is it`s new MJO which now takes it into P8. ( Yesterday`s wanted to take it into the Null ) . So it looks like it wants to come around to where the VP 200 anomalies want to line this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Solid. So this looks really good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Solid. So this looks really good looks like suppression pattern to me with most of the metro in below normal precip with the northern jet dominating the patttern and above precip confined to the southeast U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: looks like suppression pattern to me with most of the metro in below normal precip with the northern jet dominating the patttern and above precip confined to the southeast U.S. Always Possible. Cold does not always beget snow , especially when the vortex presses in. You may have to deal with cold and dry for a bit , but there should be chances when the vortex slightly releases that you will get your heights to rise in the east. I will take my chances and build HP through H/B down into the N/E and see what comes of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: looks like suppression pattern to me with most of the metro in below normal precip with the northern jet dominating the patttern and above precip confined to the southeast U.S. Quite possible but too early to say. Like pb said , I rather take my chances with the cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 What a storm on the Gfs for sne Nice Miller b It's anyone's guess right now the track but I'm loving the confluence to the north. Mjo will be favorable by the time this storm happens ( if it does ) Cmc shredded this storm. Long duration storm also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 52 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: looks like suppression pattern to me with most of the metro in below normal precip with the northern jet dominating the patttern and above precip confined to the southeast U.S. A weak Phase 8 amplitude can introduce cold and wetter conditions. The CPC will eventually see that it's no different for this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 29 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What a storm on the Gfs for sne Nice Miller b It's anyone's guess right now the track but I'm loving the confluence to the north. Mjo will be favorable by the time this storm happens ( if it does ) Cmc shredded this storm. Long duration storm also The track makes no sense really. The disturbance would have to eject out with perfect timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The track makes no sense really. The disturbance would have to eject out with perfect timing. Nice banana high to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: He rarely bets against the euro mjo progression but others are doing it also. The Euro has been struggling with the mjo. This is incorrect. The GFS suite has had a rough time of late with the MJO, in large part why it was showing all of this cold for late December through early January. That has continually been kicked back and weakened with time. After over-amplifying the P7 look dramatically, it caved again this week. People need to look beyond the RMM charts if they want to diagnose what the MJO is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 18 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: This is incorrect. The GFS suite has had a rough time of late with the MJO, in large part why it was showing all of this cold for late December through early January. That has continually been kicked back and weakened with time. After over-amplifying the P7 look dramatically, it caved again this week. People need to look beyond the RMM charts if they want to diagnose what the MJO is doing. Did you see the mjo charts for the euro yesterday ? Euro wanted the mjo to go back into 6. Now it travels into 7-8-cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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