IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 57 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I’m going to keep quiet for the remainder of the tracking of this storm so I don’t get accused of anything and I’m not going to give my opinion of what I think is going to happen. All I’ll say is don’t get emotionally invested in this storm Yeah. I agree. Keep a good distance away from this one. The position of the tPV is the deal breaker with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 14 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Yeah. I agree. Keep a good distance away from this one. The position of the tPV is the deal breaker with this one. What's TPV? It sounds like something you don't want to be diagnosed with. And can we pin an acronym list somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, North and West said: What's TPV? It sounds like something you don't want to be diagnosed with. And can we pin an acronym list somewhere? The polar vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Hows EURO look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Euro is alot flatter than the Gfs Let's see who caves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro is alot flatter than the Gfs Let's see who caves We know the gfs will cave. It does every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: We know the gfs will cave. It does every time Euro is far from infallible, but it's hard to get too invested in this without it being at least close to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Let's see what the Euro Ensembles look like. Seems too early to focus on operational runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 The pattern change around the 10th is on target. Accumulating snow is likely for some Sun/ Mon . Not sure how much but I believe you will see some snow that is able to make it out of the S branch into very cold air which should accumulate. If you phase ( then it`s more snow ) , but right now I think there will be enough out of the S branch alone to make it this far N. There is no moderation on the Euro at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 18 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: We know the gfs will cave. It does every time No it doesn't Euro has caved many times in the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: No it doesn't Euro has caved many times in the past All models have had their fair share of problems with east coast storms, EURO definitely being one of them. And now with the euro running 4x a day I’m sure you will see just flip flops with it as you would with the gfs. I still would say the EURO is the best but it’s not sitting atop a mountain overlooking all the other models like it used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Don’t be surprised by the model volatility when each one has a different solution following phase 8. Add a fast Pacific Jet to the mix and you have even more uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 27 minutes ago, Snow88 said: No it doesn't Euro has caved many times in the past WPC bullish on at least .50 liquid and higher right along the coast Sunday 0Z to Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: Don’t be surprised by the model volatility when each one has a different solution following phase 8. Add a fast Pacific Jet to the mix and you have even more uncertainty. Bluewave or anyone else is MJO currently into phase 8 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 23 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Bluewave or anyone else is MJO currently into phase 8 ? The CPC charts have it in phase 8 today. But all models quickly take it to the circle by the end of the week. So it’s not enough time to change the fast Pacific flow while we get the trough back into the East. Probably not a good time to get invested in any specific storms right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 As nice as the GFS looks to me unfortunately this is a non threat until the Euro gets on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: The CPC charts have it in phase 8 today. But all models quickly take it to the circle by the end of the week. So it’s not enough time to change the fast Pacific flow while we get the trough back into the East. Probably not a good time to get invested in any specific storms right now. These have been preforming the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 13 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: These have been preforming the best Very quick runs through 8-1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 The 35-40 dbz echos near Allentown and Bethlehem PA is a graupel shower mixed with some large snow flakes. The intensity is way overdone on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Fwiw, the icon is more amped than the 12z run at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 28 minutes ago, Tatamy said: The 35-40 dbz echos near Allentown and Bethlehem PA is a graupel shower mixed with some large snow flakes. The intensity is way overdone on radar. Damn. I was looking forward to see if it held together. Doesn't look like it matters. Brightband city. Being a weenie, I'm hoping it does regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 17 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Fwiw, the icon is more amped than the 12z run at 120 hours. Encouraging, Norfolk got crushed on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Congrats southern mid Atlantic on the gfs. Confluence too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 New GFS looked like frame by frame rerun of the December snowstorm through 138, but at 144-150 it's trying to pull the storm up the coast. Heaviest banding still slides off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 This storm track will change 4 times a day for the next 3-4 days. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: This storm track will change 4 times a day for the next 3-4 days. Enjoy. The confluence is what needs to change. If that backs off then it's game on. People who know more about teleconnections than me can explain how likely that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: The confluence is what needs to change. If that backs off then it's game on. People who know more about teleconnections than me can explain how likely that is. NAO and PNA look to be slightly positive at this time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 21 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Congrats southern mid Atlantic on the gfs. Confluence too strong. (Just west of)OCMD no elevation jackpot. Makes sense synoptically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Sleet with a few flakes mixed in falling here. 26° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Another reason to be cautious about GFS solutions right now. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/07/national-weather-service-is-open-your-forecast-is-worse-because-shutdown/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.d23be43c6907 But in the meantime, the current Global Forecast System — or the GFS — the United States' premier weather model, is running poorly, and there’s no one on duty to fix it. “There was a dropout in the scores for all of the systems on Dec. 25,” Saha said of the scoring system used to rank how the forecast models are performing. “All of the models recovered, except for the GFS, which is still running at the bottom of the pack.” Not only does that mean the day-to-day weather forecast is worse, she said, it is also a national security risk. Saha thinks it has to do with the data format. The model brings in data from all over the world, from dozens of different countries that are now standardizing the format to adhere to new regulations. The Environmental Modeling Center was working to adjust for the new formats when the shutdown started. Saha said that even though the Weather Service is getting the data, the GFS doesn’t recognize the format, so it can’t use it. And a model forecast is only as good as its input data. S“Once the GFS scores start to go bad, it impacts everything,” Saha said. Transportation, the energy sector, national security, agriculture, the stock market, extreme weather. There are about 50 full-time federal employees at EMC and 150 contractors. Only one person is working during the shutdown, she said — a manager who does not work on data or the models. “Things are going to break, and that really worries me because this is our job. We are supposed to improve our weather forecasts, not deteriorate them.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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