January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Most of the MJO plots go into phase 7 or COD. Only 1 loops back to 6. Do you think they are picking up an SOI drop, or will they correct back to 6 if SOI remains positive?

The VP anomalies are so strong now in phase 5 that there can be a lag. These charts below give a better representation when you see the individual components. It’s probably why the guidance is holding onto the MJO 5 or 6 look.

https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/rmm/

 

 

 

[NEG NAO]

[NEG NAO]

[snowman19]

I won’t wait until it’s blatantly obvious to fail, but my call for a pattern change for mid-January isn’t going to happen as it stands now. Too soon. It was mentioned already, but this unfavorable MJO wave was so strong and persistent that it’s going to have atmospheric lag effects. I also don’t think the SSW is going to be of much, if any help at all, the vortex is most likely going to dump on the other side of the hemisphere. I’m still hopeful for late January but it’s becoming obvious over the last few days that the pattern isn’t going to be in a full scale change by mid month

[MJO812]

Steve D

NY/NJWeather

 

Well, the stratospheric warming is happening right now.  Now we see how the dominos fall.  Sit back and relax, ENJOY THE SHOW!

[Zelocita Weather]

What did the euro show?

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

What did the euro show?

For when ?

[weatherpruf]

52 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I won’t wait until it’s blatantly obvious to fail, but my call for a pattern change for mid-January isn’t going to happen as it stands now. Too soon. It was mentioned already, but this unfavorable MJO wave was so strong and persistent that it’s going to have atmospheric lag effects. I also don’t think the SSW is going to be of much, if any help at all, the vortex is most likely going to dump on the other side of the hemisphere. I’m still hopeful for late January but it’s becoming obvious over the last few days that the pattern isn’t going to be in a full scale change by mid month

Don't be so hard on yourself. No one is that stellar at this. 

[Zelocita Weather]

28 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

For when ?

For the Jan 3/4 threat

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

For the Jan 3/4 threat

Heavy rain for the whole northeast

[nycwinter]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Heavy rain for the whole northeast

i'm looking forward to tropical weather season....

[Animal]

15 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Heavy rain for the whole northeast

Most likely takes Mountain Creek down.

mountain is scraping by on a few trails.

sorta unbelievable the amount of rain this winter.

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Steve D

NY/NJWeather

 

Well, the stratospheric warming is happening right now.  Now we see how the dominos fall.  Sit back and relax, ENJOY THE SHOW!

I can't imagine a pattern worse than what we have now?...

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I can't imagine a pattern worse than what we have now?...

The SSW last February 11th took 3 weeks to start producing for us. So this one would fit nicely with expected El Niño timing should it impact the troposphere. Even without it, we would still have El Niño back-loaded winter climo on our side. But the question with every El Niño is exactly how back-loaded will things get? 

[SnoSki14]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The SSW last February 11th took 3 weeks to start producing for us. So this one would fit nicely with expected El Niño timing should it impact the troposphere. Even without it, we would still have El Niño back-loaded winter climo on our side. But the question with every El Niño is exactly how back-loaded will things get? 

There are multiple variables that would be favorable for us. We'll have peak snow climo, possible SSW impacts, favorable MJO, back-loaded Nino climo, and let's not forget the active weather pattern in our favor. 

That might lead to several KU events from late Jan through mid March.

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

There are multiple variables that would be favorable for us. We'll have peak snow climo, possible SSW impacts, favorable MJO, back-loaded Nino climo, and let's not forget the active weather pattern in our favor. 

That might lead to several KU events from late Jan through mid March.

So far we have been on a roll with El Niño winters since 2000. The only dud was 06-07. It got really cold for February but Valentine’s Day produced more ice and sleet than snow. Could have been a KU with a few weather variable improvements.

Snowy 2nd half El Niño winters since 2000

02-03

04-05

09-10

14-15

15-16

Less snowy 2nd half but cold

06-07

[donsutherland1]

Despite the predominance of clouds and a brief period of light snow during the morning, the implied probability of December's averaging 40.0° or above in New York City has increased further based on the sensitivity analysis applied to the guidance. The implied probability is now 79%. The most likely range has narrowed to 40.1°-40.3°.　

In terms of annual precipitation, New York City has received 64.53" to date. That ranks as the 5th highest figure on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the guidance (through 18z), there is a 50% implied probability that New York City will reach 65.11" before midnight tomorrow night. That would tie 1989 as New York City's 4th wettest year on record. There is an implied probability of 46% that New York City's 2018 total will exceed 65.11".　

The 12/29 MJO data (RMM) is in. The MJO remained in Phase 5 for the 12th consecutive day with an amplitude of 2.547. This ties the December record for most consecutive days in Phase 5. The record was set during the December 7-18, 1994 period. The amplitude is down from the 12/28-adjusted figure of 2.854.　

The MJO will very likely move into Phase 6 in the next 1-3 days at a high to very high amplitude. During the second week of January, it will likely progress into Phase 7. Initially, both the SOI and Arctic Oscillation (AO) will likely remain predominantly positive. However, as the MJO approaches and then moves into Phase 7, the SOI will likely go persistently negative and the AO will also become increasingly negative. The second half of January could see a predominant PNA+/AO- combination. Such a combination has coincided with some of the region's biggest January snowstorms. 　

Perhaps as a hint of the Atlantic blocking that could develop in the extended range, a majority of GEFS members now show the AO going negative during the second week of January.

For New York City, the move to Phase 7 will coincide with the growing risk of at least a moderate (4" or greater) snowstorm. Should the MJO progress to Phase 8 afterward, the risk of a moderate or greater snowstorm will increase further.

Since MJO daily data was recorded beginning in 1974, 39% of New York City's 4" or greater January snowstorms occurred during Phases 7 or 8. During El Niño winters, that figure was 56%. No such snowstorms occurred during Phase 6 in El Niño winters.

[wdrag]

Hi everyone, I'm sort of confused.  I'm attaching WPC's day 5 prob of significant snow or ice for Thu into Fri.  Looks pretty good to me when you look at all the model guidance and potential for a chilling closed 500MB low passing across NJ/LI around Friday.  Could well be too warm, but I wouldn't give up.  Got a long ways to go, getting to Fridays probable substantial precip event, which could be heavy wet snow (comma head-banding) on the nw fringe as hinted in darker green on this image. Seems like a lot of us are siding with a wet EC.  I wouldn't be dismissing the GGEM option.  It imo, is very good in synoptic scale winter weather.  Until it gives up the snow, keep checking the models, especially when we get to 72 hours out. Walt 644PM/30

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The SSW last February 11th took 3 weeks to start producing for us. So this one would fit nicely with expected El Niño timing should it impact the troposphere. Even without it, we would still have El Niño back-loaded winter climo on our side. But the question with every El Niño is exactly how back-loaded will things get? 

back loaded like 1973 or bad loaded like 1966?...TWT...

[snowman19]

53 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Despite the predominance of clouds and a brief period of light snow during the morning, the implied probability of December's averaging 40.0° or above in New York City has increased further based on the sensitivity analysis applied to the guidance. The implied probability is now 79%. The most likely range has narrowed to 40.1°-40.3°.　

In terms of annual precipitation, New York City has received 64.53" to date. That ranks as the 5th highest figure on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the guidance (through 18z), there is a 50% implied probability that New York City will reach 65.11" before midnight tomorrow night. That would tie 1989 as New York City's 4th wettest year on record. There is an implied probability of 46% that New York City's 2018 total will exceed 65.11".　

The 12/29 MJO data (RMM) is in. The MJO remained in Phase 5 for the 12th consecutive day with an amplitude of 2.547. This ties the December record for most consecutive days in Phase 5. The record was set during the December 7-18, 1994 period. The amplitude is down from the 12/28-adjusted figure of 2.854.　

The MJO will very likely move into Phase 6 in the next 1-3 days at a high to very high amplitude. During the second week of January, it will likely progress into Phase 7. Initially, both the SOI and Arctic Oscillation (AO) will likely remain predominantly positive. However, as the MJO approaches and then moves into Phase 7, the SOI will likely go persistently negative and the AO will also become increasingly negative. The second half of January could see a predominant PNA+/AO- combination. Such a combination has coincided with some of the region's biggest January snowstorms. 　

Perhaps as a hint of the Atlantic blocking that could develop in the extended range, a majority of GEFS members now show the AO going negative during the second week of January.

For New York City, the move to Phase 7 will coincide with the growing risk of at least a moderate (4" or greater) snowstorm. Should the MJO progress to Phase 8 afterward, the risk of a moderate or greater snowstorm will increase further.

Since MJO daily data was recorded beginning in 1974, 39% of New York City's 4" or greater January snowstorms occurred during Phases 7 or 8. During El Niño winters, that figure was 56%. No such snowstorms occurred during Phase 6 in El Niño winters.

I still think we see a turn at the end of January. I rushed things expecting a full fledged pattern change at mid-month but as of now I can still see the tide turn afterwards. It’s obvious after the last few days that this is going to be a slow transition 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I still think we see a turn at the end of January. I rushed things expecting a full fledged pattern change at mid-month but as of now I can still see the tide turn afterwards. It’s obvious after the last few days that this is going to be a slow transition 

The big question is does the storm track suddenly go dead.  It’s hard to believe we can hold this type of activity all winter.  When we finally flip we may end up drier.  Even in an El Niño it’s hard to keep things going the whole way through.  

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The big question is does the storm track suddenly go dead.  It’s hard to believe we can hold this type of activity all winter.  When we finally flip we may end up drier.  Even in an El Niño it’s hard to keep things going the whole way through.  

I honestly was thinking about the same thing. Eventually the faucet is going to turn off. I know everyone wants -NAM and I’m pretty sure that’s what’s coming but it may equal suppressed storm tracks even with an active STJ once the pattern change occurs

[donsutherland1]

56 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I still think we see a turn at the end of January. I rushed things expecting a full fledged pattern change at mid-month but as of now I can still see the tide turn afterwards. It’s obvious after the last few days that this is going to be a slow transition 

IMO, there's more uncertainty than usual. The timing of the pattern change likely depends on the progression of the MJO. The SSW remains a wildcard. We'll see what happens.

[MJO812]

Next storm to track will be next week.  December wasn't friendly at all with snow. Hopefully it changes this upcoming month.

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The big question is does the storm track suddenly go dead.  It’s hard to believe we can hold this type of activity all winter.  When we finally flip we may end up drier.  Even in an El Niño it’s hard to keep things going the whole way through.  

The storm track has never been good this season.  We've yet to see a benchmark track, it's all been either huggers or cutters- even the November snow storm was a hugger which was why it changed to rain.  That was one of the questions I had about the forecasts- you want to see benchmark tracks in the fall even when it's raining.

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I won’t wait until it’s blatantly obvious to fail, but my call for a pattern change for mid-January isn’t going to happen as it stands now. Too soon. It was mentioned already, but this unfavorable MJO wave was so strong and persistent that it’s going to have atmospheric lag effects. I also don’t think the SSW is going to be of much, if any help at all, the vortex is most likely going to dump on the other side of the hemisphere. I’m still hopeful for late January but it’s becoming obvious over the last few days that the pattern isn’t going to be in a full scale change by mid month

That sounds like winter 2006-07 and the hugger and cutter tracks match up with that winter too- even when the winter turned colder we still had the hugger tracks like the storm we saw in November.

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, nycwinter said:

i'm looking forward to tropical weather season....

That may be more exciting than the Yankees season and this snow season combined lol

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, uncle W said:

back loaded like 1973 or bad loaded like 1966?...TWT...

1966-67 was the real backloaded winter.

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

So far we have been on a roll with El Niño winters since 2000. The only dud was 06-07. It got really cold for February but Valentine’s Day produced more ice and sleet than snow. Could have been a KU with a few weather variable improvements.

Snowy 2nd half El Niño winters since 2000

02-03

04-05

09-10

14-15

15-16

Less snowy 2nd half but cold

06-07

IMO the St Paddys Day storm in March 2007 was more impressive (out this way anyway.)  The track that winter was always going to favor mixed events rather than snowstorms.  I dont get the obsession over ENSO anyway because most of our historically best winters have been of all different ENSO phases.  The biggest snowstorms for the south shore- now thats a different story.

[MJO812]

55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

IMO the St Paddys Day storm in March 2007 was more impressive (out this way anyway.)  The track that winter was always going to favor mixed events rather than snowstorms.  I dont get the obsession over ENSO anyway because most of our historically best winters have been of all different ENSO phases.  The biggest snowstorms for the south shore- now thats a different story.

4 inches of sleet here with that one