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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in New York City Metro

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Europe for now has been benefitting from the SSWE, and we'll likely have to wait our turn.

But if the winter never turns then it wouldn't be the first time, all or nothing winters are very common. It's recently happened in 11/12, 07/08, 01/02, 97/98 and so forth. 

It does seem that once the pattern is set, it's very hard to break whether that be cold/snowy or warm/wet. However sometimes you get multiple forces that turn the pattern either very early like 10/11, 89/90 or much later like 14/15, 17/18. 

I’m having doubts about the pattern going cold and snowy after 1/21 now, I had been optimistic until Friday night’s guidance. I will say this, if we get to 2/1 without a major pattern change, that isn’t transient, already in place, it will be a very, very bad sign

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, wdrag said:

In the fwiw department; BANDING...well modeled days in advance, particular the ECMWF.  If you wish to eyeball what I think is fairly classic banding signature, look at the EPC 500mb pattern for 12z today and 00z/6.  Note where we are located with respect to the 500 flow---deformation and banding.  Pretty big rains are occurring ne PA and far nw NJ.  We had 0.27 prior to 8am EST,  now at 0.73"  I won't be able to reply to any comments for several hours but just wanted to pass on something that I think we could already see back around Dec 26-27. 

Final today was 1.52", all but 0.27 after 8AM Saturday. 

Walt, thanks for taking the time to post.  I had the pleasure of speaking with you a few times when you were at BOX. 

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Juliancolton

Juliancolton

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Agree, sometimes I doubt the Davis, but this map makes me feel better, you're readings fall in line too.:thumbsup:

The Davis definitely holds its own.

Over the holidays I got an Ambient WS-2902 as an "upgrade"/replacement to my failing decade-old system. Temp and moisture are really the only things I need to know, so while I considered buying a Davis, I went with the entry-level Ambient. At $160 for the whole package, its tipper gauge hasn't differed from the Stratus by more than 5 hundredths of an inch in each precip event so far. Granted, we haven't had any really challenging conditions yet, just steady rainfall rates with minimal wind. But given how accurate this glorified toy has proven, a more advanced system like the Davis should be pretty much bang-on.

The anemometer is still a farce, though.

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dmillz25

dmillz25

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m having doubts about the pattern going cold and snowy after 1/21 now, I had been optimistic until Friday night’s guidance. I will say this, if we get to 2/1 without a major pattern change, that isn’t transient, already in place, it will be a very, very bad sign

Well take a look at today’s guidance. Storm chance next weekend followed by a brief moderation then the real pattern sets up around 1/20

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The most prominent feature so far has been the split flow with the Northern Stream coming in stronger than normal for an El Niño. This pattern has only permitted cutter, hugger, or suppressed Suthern Stream storm tracks. Perfect benchmark tracks have been an endangered species. Good thing the November 15th hugger had so much cold air and arctic high pressure in place. Otherwise, we would only have a T so far.

Boston has 0.2" so far this winter...

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Boston has 0.2" so far this winter...

4th lowest seasonal snowfall by January 5th on record. 

1 2000-01-05 0.0 0
2 1892-01-05 T 0
3 1958-01-05 0.1 0
4 2019-01-05 0.2 1
5 1944-01-05 0.3 0
6 1928-01-05 0.5 1
- 1926-01-05 0.5 0
8 2007-01-05 0.8 0
- 1999-01-05 0.8 0
10 2016-01-05 0.9 0
- 1901-01-05 0.9 0
12 2012-01-05 1.0 0
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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

NYC can't set a record for the least amount of snowfall this year thanks to 6.4" in the November storm...2006-07 is in the lead for the least amount of snow up to January 6th...it had zero snowfall until a trace fell on January 10th...it was so bad the a priest in my church was praying for snow...the only none el nino on this list is 1999-2000...1973 had the latest measurable snow on record...it also had the least amount of snow for a season...2.8"...1919 had 1.4" on 3/23 to end up with 3.8"...1998 had the least amount of snow until a 5" snowfall on 3/22...it ended up with 5.5" for the season...

1/09/2007.....0

1/10/2007/73/00/66.. trace

1/19/2000/73/66...trace

1/28/1973.....trace

1/29/1995.....0.2"

2/04/1998.....0.5"

3/22/1919.....2.4"

3/28/1973.....2.8" to end...

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, uncle W said:

NYC can't set a record for the least amount of snowfall this year thanks to 6.4" in the November storm...2006-07 is in the lead for the least amount of snow up to January 6th...it had zero snowfall until a trace fell on January 10th...it was so bad the a priest in my church was praying for snow...the only none el nino on this list is 1999-2000...1973 had the latest measurable snow on record...it also had the least amount of snow for a season...2.8"...1919 had 1.4" on 3/23 to end up with 3.8"...1998 had the least amount of snow until a 5" snowfall on 3/22...it ended up with 5.5" for the season...

1/09/2007.....0

1/10/2007/73/00/66.. trace

1/19/2000/73/66...trace

1/28/1973.....trace

1/29/1995.....0.2"

2/04/1998.....0.5"

3/22/1919.....2.4"

3/28/1973.....2.8" to end...

was that Father Snow ?:snowman:

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m having doubts about the pattern going cold and snowy after 1/21 now, I had been optimistic until Friday night’s guidance. I will say this, if we get to 2/1 without a major pattern change, that isn’t transient, already in place, it will be a very, very bad sign

The Pacific jet is the big question mark. If it continues to roar without any signs of it relaxing, then you might be right. 

Though even then I think the Nino influences would try to override it and we get a very cold Feb a la 06/07. So yeah I'm currently split between a 14/15 and 06/07 back-end. 

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Cfa

Cfa

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

The Davis definitely holds its own.

Over the holidays I got an Ambient WS-2902 as an "upgrade"/replacement to my failing decade-old system. Temp and moisture are really the only things I need to know, so while I considered buying a Davis, I went with the entry-level Ambient. At $160 for the whole package, its tipper gauge hasn't differed from the Stratus by more than 5 hundredths of an inch in each precip event so far. Granted, we haven't had any really challenging conditions yet, just steady rainfall rates with minimal wind. But given how accurate this glorified toy has proven, a more advanced system like the Davis should be pretty much bang-on.

The anemometer is still a farce, though.

That’s the same station I have, I got it back in March after that storm at the beginning of the month wrecked my temp/humidity sensor. My wind readings are shot, since it’s an all-in-one station mounted at 5 feet, but everything else has been pretty spot on.

My only complaint is the lack of an aspirating fan, on sunny mornings with dead calm winds my temperature runs a few degrees too high, but (thankfully) never to the point where it affects the daily high temperature. This happens roughly 1-2 times per month.

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gravitylover

gravitylover

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, uncle W said:

NYC can't set a record for the least amount of snowfall this year thanks to 6.4" in the November storm...2006-07 is in the lead for the least amount of snow up to January 6th...it had zero snowfall until a trace fell on January 10th...it was so bad the a priest in my church was praying for snow...the only none el nino on this list is 1999-2000...1973 had the latest measurable snow on record...it also had the least amount of snow for a season...2.8"...1919 had 1.4" on 3/23 to end up with 3.8"...1998 had the least amount of snow until a 5" snowfall on 3/22...it ended up with 5.5" for the season...

1/09/2007.....0

1/10/2007/73/00/66.. trace

1/19/2000/73/66...trace

1/28/1973.....trace

1/29/1995.....0.2"

2/04/1998.....0.5"

3/22/1919.....2.4"

3/28/1973.....2.8" to end...

Of course, 1998 was the year after I opened my old ski shop and the year I moved into a standalone building.  It was a "challenging" year. 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

The guidance is continuing to indicate a significant pattern change around or perhaps shortly after mid-month. Already, important milestones along the way to this pattern change have been reached. The MJO moved into Phase 7. The SOI turned negative. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has just gone negative for the first time since December 25.

The SOI was -8.66 today. It has now been negative for 7 consecutive days. The last time the SOI was negative for 7 or more consecutive days was September 18 through October 3, 2018, a stretch of 16 consecutive days.

On January 5, the MJO was in Phase 7 with an amplitude of 2.442 (RMM). That amplitude was higher than the January 4-adjusted figure of 1.887. The MJO's progression has accelerated in recent days and it could reach Phase 8 as early as the January 6 reading. However, both the dynamical and statistical guidance suggests that the MJO's progression will likely slow again in coming days. There is the potential for a slow progression through Phase 8.

With the MJO moving through Phase 7 at a high amplitude, the AO had been very likely go negative. Today's preliminary value for the AO was -0.615. As the MJO moves into Phase 8, the AO will likely become predominantly negative.

The second week of January will very likely feature a sharp but transient cold shot. Moderation should occur afterward ahead of the larger pattern change to sustained cold.

The risk of a moderate (4" or more) or significant (6" or more) snowfall will begin to increase as the MJO continues to move through Phase 7. That probability will increase even more once the MJO reaches and then advances through Phase 8. Already, several shortwaves in the January 13-15 and January 19-22 period bear watching.

A predominant PNA+/AO- combination could develop near mid-month. Such a combination has been present for most of the region's big January snowstorms. Since 1950, 68% of New York City's and 69% of Philadelphia's 6" or greater January snowfalls occurred with a PNA+/AO- combination.

All said, a month that featured unseasonable warmth during its first week could turn cold and snowy. Dramatic turns to colder weather have occurred in such El Niño winters as 1965-1966 and 2004-05. Winter 2018-19 appears to be in line for a similar flip.

Finally, the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event that resulted in a reversal of the 1 mb and 10 mb zonal winds has also led to a splitting of the polar vortex. Some of the guidance suggests that the polar vortex will remain split through at least 360 hours. This situation would increase the prospects of an extended-duration polar blocking regime.

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