January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

[Animal]

My Holly nws is still indication a snow sleet mix interior areas Monday night.

[donsutherland1]

Signs of a significant pattern change around or perhaps shortly after mid-month continue to increase.

So far, the pattern progression appears to be on a reasonably good course relative to how things should evolve with the advance of the MJO. After a very warm first week of January, the second week will likely come in 4°-7° cooler than the first week. During the second week, there could be a fairly sharp but transient shot of cold air. Moderation could then follow ahead of the significant pattern change. Several days after the development of the trough in the East, sustained cold could move into the region.

The SOI was -18.60 today. It has now been negative for 6 consecutive days. The last time the SOI was negative for 6 consecutive days was November 14-19, 2018.

On January 4, the MJO moved into Phase 7 with an amplitude of 1.887 (RMM). That amplitude slightly higher than the January 3-adjusted figure of 1.808. The MJO's progression has accelerated in recent days. This acceleration may have more to do with redevelopment of the area of convection than the rate of progression to the East. The guidance suggests that the MJO's progression will likely slow again in coming days.

As the MJO moves through Phase 7, the AO will very likely go negative. In fact, the AO's descent may have begun. Today's preliminary value for the AO was +0.303. Yesterday, it was +0.647. To date, the AO has averaged +0.156 for meteorological winter. The AO has been positive on 67% days and negative on 33% days. Its lowest value so far is -1.201, which was reached on December 21.

The second half of January could feature the development of a predominant PNA+/AO- combination. Such a combination has been present for most of the region's big January snowstorms.

Finally, New York City's precipitation to date has surpassed 0.50" with today's rainfall with cities such as Allentown, Newark, Philadelphia, and Poughkeepsie having even higher precipitation to date. The January-March period could be wetter than normal. Since 1972, there were 7 prior cases to 2018 where New York City picked up 60" or more precipitation (none prior to 1972): 1972, 1975, 1983, 1989, 1990, 2007, and 2011. Five (71%) of those cases had above normal precipitation in the following January-March period. Only one saw much below normal precipitation during that period. In short, the turn to cold that appears increasingly likely after mid-month will likely be accompanied by opportunities for snowfall.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.45" of rain for the day.

Current temp 46

[sussexcountyobs]

1.45" of rain today. Currently 39° with mostly clear skies. 

 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

1.45" of rain today. Currently 39° with mostly clear skies. 

 

1.66” of rain out at Montauk. Big dry slot between NW NJ and Eastern LI.

[sussexcountyobs]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

1.66” of rain out at Montauk. Big dry slot between NW NJ and Eastern LI.

We need a dry slot!

[weatherpruf]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Weird thing was how did that storm track further east than modeled and yet here in SW Nassau we had rain for the first half of the storm?  An eastern track implies more cold air but somehow we still got rain at the beginning.

2014-15 which is another analog winter was similar, didn't the Euro predict us getting a 30" snowstorm in Jan 2015?  It was a year too early lol, we finally got it the following January.

 

There have now been several storms over the last few years where an apocalypse was predicted but we wound up with 4-8 in large portions of this subforum. It is tedious. Off the top of my head, Jan 2015, March 2017, March 2018. Forecasting snow amounts in some of these situations, I have learned, is dicey. Jan 2016 delivered though. Thing is, I had only seen one storm of such magnitude in my life in 1996, and I was 33 yrs old then. I've seen several of them since. 

[weatherpruf]

10 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Actually my area did not receive all much snow beyond 3/2

My township recorded 54 inches that year, with 3/2 being the last, but what a blast, literally, sleeted so hard it sounded like a sandblaster, Picked up 3-5 of slushy, back breaking sleet in that one. 

[weatherpruf]

9 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

there's a pretty cool ~850mb feature over northern jersey producing some heavy downpours in the region. 

with favorable synoptic support in most of the eastern mid-atlantic and southern new england, it now just comes down to the multiple, smaller areas of lift that rotate around the deepening, complex low. i think some of the heavier precip that has yet to develop should focus near the trowal (trough of warm air aloft) this afternoon. most of the hi-res seem to favor areas just s and e of the city for the deeper convection, including parts of the jersey shore and long island.

Nice to know I was in the same dry slot for the rain as I usually am for the snow. I am sick of this rain already. I have a dog that will not go out in the rain. Ya'll know what that means.....and he gets quite indignant when I bring it up. Snarls, growls, bears teeth and all....

[Juliancolton]

Had .98" today. 31F now and falling... getting icy 

[wdrag]

In the fwiw department; BANDING...well modeled days in advance, particular the ECMWF.  If you wish to eyeball what I think is fairly classic banding signature, look at the EPC 500mb pattern for 12z today and 00z/6.  Note where we are located with respect to the 500 flow---deformation and banding.  Pretty big rains are occurring ne PA and far nw NJ.  We had 0.27 prior to 8am EST,  now at 0.73"  I won't be able to reply to any comments for several hours but just wanted to pass on something that I think we could already see back around Dec 26-27. 

Final today was 1.52", all but 0.27 after 8AM Saturday. 

[uncle W]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Signs of a significant pattern change around or perhaps shortly after mid-month continue to increase.

So far, the pattern progression appears to be on a reasonably good course relative to how things should evolve with the advance of the MJO. After a very warm first week of January, the second week will likely come in 4°-7° cooler than the first week. During the second week, there could be a fairly sharp but transient shot of cold air. Moderation could then follow ahead of the significant pattern change. Several days after the development of the trough in the East, sustained cold could move into the region.

The SOI was -18.60 today. It has now been negative for 6 consecutive days. The last time the SOI was negative for 6 consecutive days was November 14-19, 2018.

On January 4, the MJO moved into Phase 7 with an amplitude of 1.887 (RMM). That amplitude slightly higher than the January 3-adjusted figure of 1.808. The MJO's progression has accelerated in recent days. This acceleration may have more to do with redevelopment of the area of convection than the rate of progression to the East. The guidance suggests that the MJO's progression will likely slow again in coming days.

As the MJO moves through Phase 7, the AO will very likely go negative. In fact, the AO's descent may have begun. Today's preliminary value for the AO was +0.303. Yesterday, it was +0.647. To date, the AO has averaged +0.156 for meteorological winter. The AO has been positive on 67% days and negative on 33% days. Its lowest value so far is -1.201, which was reached on December 21.

The second half of January could feature the development of a predominant PNA+/AO- combination. Such a combination has been present for most of the region's big January snowstorms.

Finally, New York City's precipitation to date has surpassed 0.50" with today's rainfall with cities such as Allentown, Newark, Philadelphia, and Poughkeepsie having even higher precipitation to date. The January-March period could be wetter than normal. Since 1972, there were 7 prior cases to 2018 where New York City picked up 60" or more precipitation (none prior to 1972): 1972, 1975, 1983, 1989, 1990, 2007, and 2011. Five (71%) of those cases had above normal precipitation in the following January-March period. Only one saw much below normal precipitation during that period. In short, the turn to cold that appears increasingly likely after mid-month will likely be accompanied by opportunities for snowfall.

none of the winters that followed those years had a major snowstorm...only two had near average snowfall...

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 35degs., or 2degs. AN.

Now that it is cold for a few days, both the EURO/GEFS have less snow progged.   EURO is No Snow for the next 10 days, the GEFS just 3" by the 22nd.    As it warms again, maybe we'll get a surprise event.

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

Long range starting to fall apart again. Maybe hitting on the mjo flying through 7/8 back into 5

[bluewave]

Looks like a continuation of the very fast Pacific flow. The ridge north of Hawaii briefly pulls back west mid to late week allowing a cold trough to dig over the Northeast. But the ridge returns the following week. More height rises in the Great Lakes and milder temps yet again. The warmest departures relative to normal continue over the Upper Midwest. Williston, ND is off to the 3rd warmest 12/1-1/5 period on record. 

1	2012-01-05	25.8	0
2	1955-01-05	24.8	0
3	2019-01-05	24.2	0

 

[wdrag]

In the fwiw department; BANDING...well modeled days in advance, particular the ECMWF.  If you wish to eyeball what I think is fairly classic banding signature, look at the EPC 500mb pattern for 12z today and 00z/6.  Note where we are located with respect to the 500 flow---deformation and banding.  Pretty big rains are occurring ne PA and far nw NJ.  We had 0.27 prior to 8am EST,  now at 0.73"  I won't be able to reply to any comments for several hours but just wanted to pass on something that I think we could already see back around Dec 26-27.

1.52" Wantage NJ 4 mi sw  8mi s High Point NJ.    1/5/18  Nice small stream rises ydy in our area, within bank.. Attached a screen shot entire 1/4-5/18 event max pcpn axis >.75".  

[donsutherland1]

10 hours ago, uncle W said:

none of the winters that followed those years had a major snowstorm...only two had near average snowfall...

That’s correct. My focus as on continuing above normal precipitation for January through March. A better pattern should develop later this month and continue into February.

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

That’s correct. My focus as on continuing above normal precipitation for January through March. A better pattern should develop later this month and continue into February.

Maybe that hopefully clear total super lunar eclipse on the night of the 20th will usher in a new pattern shortly afterwards.

 

[gravitylover]

Does anybody have a handle on when this exceedingly wet pattern might break, or at least modify?

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

4 hours ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

Long range starting to fall apart again. Maybe hitting on the mjo flying through 7/8 back into 5

Nope.

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

Long range starting to fall apart again. Maybe hitting on the mjo flying through 7/8 back into 5

MJO isn't going towards 5, models have it in the COD. 

After a some cold this week, things will moderate for a bit before a more sustained cold pattern develops. The 14-20th period will be milder but then the 21st onward will likely turn colder again. 

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

MJO isn't going towards 5, models have it in the COD. 

After a some cold this week, things will moderate for a bit before a more sustained cold pattern develops. The 14-20th period will be milder but then the 21st onward will likely turn colder again. 

amazing though....it's like pulling teeth to get anything remotely wintry this year...it's muddy here with zero ice anywhere and local ski hills are hanging on for dear life with constant rainstorms wiping out their snowcover….

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

amazing though....it's like pulling teeth to get anything remotely wintry this year...it's muddy here with zero ice anywhere and local ski hills are hanging on for dear life with constant rainstorms wiping out their snowcover….

Europe for now has been benefitting from the SSWE, and we'll likely have to wait our turn.

But if the winter never turns then it wouldn't be the first time, all or nothing winters are very common. It's recently happened in 11/12, 07/08, 01/02, 97/98 and so forth. 

It does seem that once the pattern is set, it's very hard to break whether that be cold/snowy or warm/wet. However sometimes you get multiple forces that turn the pattern either very early like 10/11, 89/90 or much later like 14/15, 17/18. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe that hopefully clear total super lunar eclipse on the night of the 20th will usher in a new pattern shortly afterwards.

 

I think we will see the pattern change. The AO has now gone negative as the pieces of the pattern change are slowly coming together.

[hudsonvalley21]

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

In the fwiw department; BANDING...well modeled days in advance, particular the ECMWF.  If you wish to eyeball what I think is fairly classic banding signature, look at the EPC 500mb pattern for 12z today and 00z/6.  Note where we are located with respect to the 500 flow---deformation and banding.  Pretty big rains are occurring ne PA and far nw NJ.  We had 0.27 prior to 8am EST,  now at 0.73"  I won't be able to reply to any comments for several hours but just wanted to pass on something that I think we could already see back around Dec 26-27.

1.52" Wantage NJ 4 mi sw  8mi s High Point NJ.    1/5/18  Nice small stream rises ydy in our area, within bank.. Attached a screen shot entire 1/4-5/18 event max pcpn axis >.75".  

I had 1.56 in the Davis yesterday.  So the QPF map is spot on for here in northeastern Orange County.

[IrishRob17]

3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

I had 1.56 in the Davis yesterday.  So the QPF map is spot on for here in northeastern Orange County.

And I had 1.06” right in the middle of the heavier stuff to my west and east, off by .06” is pretty damn good IMO

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

amazing though....it's like pulling teeth to get anything remotely wintry this year...it's muddy here with zero ice anywhere and local ski hills are hanging on for dear life with constant rainstorms wiping out their snowcover….

The most prominent feature so far has been the split flow with the Northern Stream coming in stronger than normal for an El Niño. This pattern has only permitted cutter, hugger, or suppressed Suthern Stream storm tracks. Perfect benchmark tracks have been an endangered species. Good thing the November 15th hugger had so much cold air and arctic high pressure in place. Otherwise, we would only have a T so far.

[hudsonvalley21]

1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

And I had 1.06” right in the middle of the heavier stuff to my west and east, off by .06” is pretty damn good IMO

Agree, sometimes I doubt the Davis, but this map makes me feel better, you're readings fall in line too.

[IrishRob17]

9 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Agree, sometimes I doubt the Davis, but this map makes me feel better, you're readings fall in line too.

I had 1.08” in the Stratus but I’m not sure it was completely empty before this event, I’m off my game a bit. 

[IrishRob17]

2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I had 1.08” in the Stratus but I’m not sure it was completely empty before this event, I’m off my game a bit. 

In fact now that I think of it, the light coating of sleet/snow I had Friday morning was still in the Stratus.