January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

[donsutherland1]

As the first weekend in January approaches, growing signs of the long-heralded pattern change are now beginning to appear on the guidance, including the EPS.

In terms of various indices that delineate the global pattern, the SOI has gone negative. It has now been negative for 5 consecutive days. Today's figure of -20.30 is its lowest reading since November 17 when it stood at -25.26. This development is consistent with the progression of the MJO and historic experience. The three December El Niño cases that had a positive SOI average all had a January SOI average below -10.00.

On January 3, the MJO was in Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.808 (RMM). That amplitude is down from the 1/2-adjusted figure of 2.016. The MJO will likely approach and then reach Phase 7 in the January 5-9 period at a high amplitude.

While the MJO remains in Phase 6, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will very likely remain mainly positive. However, as the MJO approaches and then moves into Phase 7, the AO will likely go negative. The AO's going negative will be the next significant domino to fall in paving the way for a return of winter.

Before then, milder conditions will prevail consistent with the MJO's being in Phase 6 at a high amplitude during El Niño January cases and an SOI-/AO+ combination. January 9-15, 2007 offers a representative example. Mean temperatures for select sites during that period were:

Atlantic City: 45.4°
Boston: 36.4°
Bridgeport: 38.1°
Harrisburg: 39.4°
Islip: 39.9°
New York City: 41.2°
Newark: 40.1°
Philadelphia: 43.4°
Richmond: 49.1°
Washington, DC: 46.2°

10 days later in January 2007, a sustained much colder than normal pattern had developed.

This year, the second half of January could feature the development of a predominant PNA+/AO- combination. Such a combination has been present for most of the region's big January snowstorms. As a result, a month that featured unseasonable warmth during its first week could turn cold and snowy.

The risk of a moderate or significant snowfall will increase from a very low probability for the first 7-10 days of January once the MJO moves into Phase 7. That probability will increase even more once the MJO moves into Phase 8.

[etudiant]

Thank you, donsutherland1 for this excellent outlook summary. It is the best winter status/expectations report for our area that I've seen.

[bluewave]

More extremes from this MJO.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Pabuk-Slams-Thailand-Watching-Unusual-Setup-Northeast-Pacific

The world’s tropics are kicking off 2019 with an impressive spate of activity. The developments include Thailand’s first tropical cyclone on record so early in the year, two named systems in the Southwest Pacific, and the potential for an oddly out-of-season tropical cyclone in the Northeast Pacific.

[MJO812]

Cfs shows a cold mid January to mid February

[weatherpruf]

30 minutes ago, TriPol said:

That's more like it! (Even if it is the 384 hr GFS)

Explain, as that looks on the not too cold side to me....

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Explain, as that looks on the not too cold side to me....

cold enough for snow

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Explain, as that looks on the not too cold side to me....

finally shows an arctic intrusion heading through the midwest and on its way east...15 days away so take it with a grain of salt and hope it moves up in time.

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

finally shows an arctic intrusion heading through the midwest and on its way east...15 days away so take it with a grain of salt and hope it moves up in time.

Ensembles move the cold air up in time

Mid month

[Gravity Wave]

CMC showing a big storm Sunday into Monday. Tracks straight north from Hatteras to EPA so it's all rain, but it's deeper and further east than 12Z. GFS and GEFS look about the same as their earlier runs. FV3 is now also showing a storm in that timeframe, although it's disorganized and off the coast.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 39degs., or 6degs.AN.

EURO is back to a Trace of Snow over the next 10 days.     GEFS is at 55% of at least 4" of Snow by the 22nd.

Please look for a stretch of 3 days+ of highs of 32 or less, before calling for snowstorms with bad MJO/TCs and bare land for 100's of miles west of us.

You gotta read today's convoluted 'Apology/I want to have it both ways' essay that JB produced.    It reminded me of the OJ cartoon from the NY Post nearly 25 years that had OJ searching the scene of the crime for clues by following some set of footprints that led back to him!

[MJO812]

Soi

 

-18.60

 

All the models show a miss now with next weekends storm .  A lot of waffling coming up.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.29" of rain so far today.

Current temp 43

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

As the first weekend in January approaches, growing signs of the long-heralded pattern change are now beginning to appear on the guidance, including the EPS.

In terms of various indices that delineate the global pattern, the SOI has gone negative. It has now been negative for 5 consecutive days. Today's figure of -20.30 is its lowest reading since November 17 when it stood at -25.26. This development is consistent with the progression of the MJO and historic experience. The three December El Niño cases that had a positive SOI average all had a January SOI average below -10.00.

On January 3, the MJO was in Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.808 (RMM). That amplitude is down from the 1/2-adjusted figure of 2.016. The MJO will likely approach and then reach Phase 7 in the January 5-9 period at a high amplitude.

While the MJO remains in Phase 6, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will very likely remain mainly positive. However, as the MJO approaches and then moves into Phase 7, the AO will likely go negative. The AO's going negative will be the next significant domino to fall in paving the way for a return of winter.

Before then, milder conditions will prevail consistent with the MJO's being in Phase 6 at a high amplitude during El Niño January cases and an SOI-/AO+ combination. January 9-15, 2007 offers a representative example. Mean temperatures for select sites during that period were:

Atlantic City: 45.4°
Boston: 36.4°
Bridgeport: 38.1°
Harrisburg: 39.4°
Islip: 39.9°
New York City: 41.2°
Newark: 40.1°
Philadelphia: 43.4°
Richmond: 49.1°
Washington, DC: 46.2°

10 days later in January 2007, a sustained much colder than normal pattern had developed.

This year, the second half of January could feature the development of a predominant PNA+/AO- combination. Such a combination has been present for most of the region's big January snowstorms. As a result, a month that featured unseasonable warmth during its first week could turn cold and snowy.

The risk of a moderate or significant snowfall will increase from a very low probability for the first 7-10 days of January once the MJO moves into Phase 7. That probability will increase even more once the MJO moves into Phase 8.

Don, Lee Goldberg was already talking about consistent colder weather coming in following next week's storm on Tuesday and chances increasing for a coastal storm that would be predominantly snow the following weekend!

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Cfs shows a cold mid January to mid February

with how long we had to wait it sure better last longer than just thru  mid February

[LibertyBell]

22 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

2013-13 had 26.1" in New York City. Islip had 46.9" snow.

The February 8-9, 2013 blizzard took a track farther to the east than had been modeled (and the GFS scored a major "win" over the ECMWF which was in the consensus of a farther west track). Parts of Long Island, including Upton received 30" snow from that blizzard. New York City picked up 11.4". 20" amounts were not far to the north and east, though.

 

Weird thing was how did that storm track further east than modeled and yet here in SW Nassau we had rain for the first half of the storm?  An eastern track implies more cold air but somehow we still got rain at the beginning.

2014-15 which is another analog winter was similar, didn't the Euro predict us getting a 30" snowstorm in Jan 2015?  It was a year too early lol, we finally got it the following January.

 

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

My 2nd favorite of all time behind 96.

You didnt like the Jan 2016 blizzard?  That one certainly made up for what Jan 2015 lacked and exceeded even Jan 1996.

[LibertyBell]

22 hours ago, bluewave said:

Probably the greatest phasing blizzard of the decade so far. 

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/24hourprof/unprecedented-radar-reflectivities-and-snowfall-rates.html

I dont like phasing storms because they usually screw us, I loved Jan 2016, PD2 and Feb 1983, those are my three favorite snowstorms here.  Our biggest snowfall totals too.

 

Give me a weak low slowly moving up the coast attacking an arctic air mass!

 

 

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

That storm was one of my few disappointments during this decade. Seems like powerful neg tilt phasing storms end up too far west like March 93 or east like February 13.

Exactly Chris, the area that gets the extremely heavy snows is usually very narrow and you usually get either a changeover to rain or subsidence on either side.  It's why I prefer the slow moving weaker lows that attack arctic air masses that are typical of our biggest snowstorms.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

totally untrue. if you look at the clustering of canadian, euro and gfs ensembles, the vast majority favor the cold storm. 

yes thats why even quality mets like Lee Goldberg are talking about chances for a predominantly snow coastal snowstorm and sustained cold increasing after next week's rainer.

 

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

11-12 ended up being what 10-11 should have been.  10–11 was the strongest La Niña since 88-89 and for whatever reason it behaved like an El Niño with insane blocking and storminess.  I’m guessing it was a lag.  We’ve seen the lag effect many times before.  96-97 ended up being what 95-96 should have been based on ENSO. 93-94 seemed like an El Niño but was neutral and 95-96 may have been an El Niño STJ lag with all the storminess.  Exactly why I wouldn’t be surprised to see 19-20 possibly act more El Niño like than this winter did simply because we will have been in an El Niño base state for a long time where as this year we exited what was basically back to back cold neutrals 

I wouldnt say that, la ninas after el ninos are really good.... we had a great winter in 1995-96 in a la nina after the 1994-95 el nino too.

la nina winters can be very cold and stormy.

some of our coldest winters have been la ninas, usually weak la ninas.

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

I believe 10-11 was just a continuation of the record Atlantic blocking which began in June 09. For whatever reason, it is rare to get 2 cold La Nina’s together. 93-94 was effectively a weak modoki El Niño with the warm neutral conditions in Niño 4. We have seen how several  times 0 to +0.5 c ENSO SST’s behaved like an official weak El Niño. In 12-13 how we got  the El Niño  winter progression following the September 12 weak El Niño conditions.

right and do you remember when we looked at older analogs for the 2010-11 and 1995-96 la nina cold/snowy winters we learned that pre-1950 we had a ton of very cold and snowy la nina winters?

 

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If we can hold some sort of El Niño semblance I think there’s a tendency for spring to be mild.  There aren’t a ton of cases of back to back El Niño’s (I think just 4 in the last 80 years) but I believe they all had warm early springs following the first winter.  1953 and 1991 I think are two 

and to make the inverse point of my last post, in the 80s and 90s we had a ton of el nino winters that were mild and snowless.  I think you can have either pattern in either ENSO state, as other factors determine the predominant pattern when the ENSO signal doesn't overwhelm.

 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

right and do you remember when we looked at older analogs for the 2010-11 and 1995-96 la nina cold/snowy winters we learned that pre-1950 we had a ton of very cold and snowy la nina winters?

 

Yes, I remember. The fire hose NP Jet this year reminds me of La Niña. Notice the Niña-like ridge holding on stubbornly north of Hawaii. This is creating a stronger jet further north than we typically see during an El Niño. So we continue to have these fast NP jet issues over North America. The latest EPS means continue this for at least the next week to 10 days. 

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

An extended period such as 14-15 is quite rare.  I've read both volumes of Early Americans Winters and there are only a few similar  periods . And you have to keep in mind it was a colder climate during the time period that the volumes cover. 

The periods last anywhere from 6-8 weeks typically.  It's just a matter of getting lucky, even in the good periods.  An example is winter 06-07, we had a change to a much colder pattern starting in the second week of February that lasted thru the third week of April, however the storm track was such that we got mostly mixed or icing events.

Lots of winters that were very cold in the 80s where we got unlucky with snow too.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yes, I remember. The fire hose NP Jet this year reminds me of La Niña. Notice the Niña-like ridge holding on stubbornly north of Hawaii. This is creating a stronger jet further north than we typically see during an El Niño. So we continue to have these fast NP jet issues over North America. The latest EPS means continue this for at least the next week to 10 days. 

Chris do you buy this idea that the pattern may suddenly snap back into winter reality following next week's rainer, so around the 13th or so?  Or will that be a "warning shot" for what's to come later, and we'll see a more gradual back and forth before real winter weather finally sets in without interruption?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Soi

 

-18.60

 

All the models show a miss now with next weekends storm .  A lot of waffling coming up.

Paul did say the risk was now going to be more of storms being suppressed and going east instead of being too warm and cutting west lol.

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, Lee Goldberg was already talking about consistent colder weather coming in following next week's storm on Tuesday and chances increasing for a coastal storm that would be predominantly snow the following weekend!

 

My thinking right now is that the cold won’t lock in until around or just after mid-month. The first cold shot will be transient.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

The periods last anywhere from 6-8 weeks typically.  It's just a matter of getting lucky, even in the good periods.  An example is winter 06-07, we had a change to a much colder pattern starting in the second week of February that lasted thru the third week of April, however the storm track was such that we got mostly mixed or icing events.

Lots of winters that were very cold in the 80s where we got unlucky with snow too.

 

 

There is a big difference between a good period that lasts 6-8 weeks and a period such as what occurred in 15. That period in 2015 wasn't good, it was historic. It was like living in the snowbelt  areas around the Great Lakes. We were fortunate to experience that period during our lifetimes.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

There is a big difference between a good period that lasts 6-8 weeks and a period such as what occurred in 15. That period in 2015 wasn't good, it was historic. It was like living in the snowbelt  areas around the Great Lakes. We were fortunate to experience that period during our lifetimes.

What happened in 2014 also lasted approximately 8 weeks (Jan 20-Mar 20) but because of the storm track you got hit with almost every storm basically, two a week for 8 weeks.  Another winter which was stormy almost end to end was 1993-94 but that winter we had a lot of snow-ice scenarios because of the storm track, even though it was historically cold.  There were 2 storms every week that winter for the entire winter (over two dozen storms!) and NYC ran out of road salt, but the the snow totals, while very high (over 50") could have been even higher had the storm track been slightly different.

 

We had something similar to what you had in 2014-15 down here in 2010-11, but that period only lasted 5 weeks here.  However in that 5 weeks we had 2 20"+ snowstorms and for eastern parts of the region a third one in between (which was about 10" for the rest of us.)  Snow cover from Christmas to the end of February.

 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

What happened in 2014 also lasted approximately 8 weeks (Jan 20-Mar 20) but because of the storm track you got hit with almost every storm basically, two a week for 8 weeks.  Another winter which was stormy almost end to end was 1993-94 but that winter we had a lot of snow-ice scenarios because of the storm track, even though it was historically cold.  There were 2 storms every week that winter for the entire winter (over two dozen storms!) and NYC ran out of road salt, but the the snow totals, while very high (over 50") could have been even higher had the storm track been slightly different.

 

Actually my area did not receive all much snow beyond 3/2