January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

[Yanksfan]

SOI is tanking. Today's value is down to -20.30! I expect to see the MJO respond favorably in the coming days.

[dmillz25]

EPS improving for the second run in a row is what I like to see

[SnoSki14]

44 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

SOI is tanking. Today's value is down to -20.30! I expect to see the MJO respond favorably in the coming days.

We should see a more classic Nino response soon, guidance is starting to pick up on it as well. 

[snowman19]

A change to colder is coming. Going to be post 1/21 but it’s coming. Question is how long it lasts and is it snowy or dry? 

[SnoSki14]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A change to colder is coming. Going to be post 1/21 but it’s coming. Question is how long it lasts and is it snowy or dry? 

I think a dry pattern is highly unlikely. Even when the pattern turns colder, we'll likely still be dealing with the Pacific jet as well as the classic Nino southern stream/subtropical jet. 

SSWE are also quite stormy once they get propagate down to the troposphere (see last March).

[Brian5671]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A change to colder is coming. Going to be post 1/21 but it’s coming. Question is how long it lasts and is it snowy or dry? 

12-13 had a turn to cold around 1/20, but it was cold and bone dry.   Eastern folks cashed in with the Blizzard on 2/8 (30 inches here) but we had to wait for the cold to relax.

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

2004-05 looks like another fair analog along with 2012-13, didn't 2012-13 also end up with around 40" of seasonal snowfall in NYC, Don?

2006-07 and 2011-12 are in the back of my mind though

Don will the reversal happen at 30 mb too?

 

2013-13 had 26.1" in New York City. Islip had 46.9" snow.

The February 8-9, 2013 blizzard took a track farther to the east than had been modeled (and the GFS scored a major "win" over the ECMWF which was in the consensus of a farther west track). Parts of Long Island, including Upton received 30" snow from that blizzard. New York City picked up 11.4". 20" amounts were not far to the north and east, though.

 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

2013-13 had 26.1" in New York City. Islip had 46.9" snow.

The February 8-9, 2013 blizzard took a track farther to the east than had been modeled (and the GFS scored a major "win" over the ECMWF which was in the consensus of a farther west track). Parts of Long Island, including Upton received 30" snow from that blizzard. New York City picked up 11.4". 20" amounts were not far to the north and east, though.

 

Probably the greatest phasing blizzard of the decade so far. 

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/24hourprof/unprecedented-radar-reflectivities-and-snowfall-rates.html

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

2013-13 had 26.1" in New York City. Islip had 46.9" snow.

The February 8-9, 2013 blizzard took a track farther to the east than had been modeled (and the GFS scored a major "win" over the ECMWF which was in the consensus of a farther west track). Parts of Long Island, including Upton received 30" snow from that blizzard. New York City picked up 11.4". 20" amounts were not far to the north and east, though.

 

This is why an above average to much above average snowfall is still very much on the table. Just one storm can get us close to average while an extended 5 to 6 week period (2014 2015, last March and April, 2004 2005) can bring the general area to 125 to 150% of average. Of course there are some big IFS that need to occur.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Probably the greatest phasing blizzard of the decade so far. 

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/24hourprof/unprecedented-radar-reflectivities-and-snowfall-rates.html

That storm was so powerful. I was WEST of the major band and STILL ended up with 22 inches.

Question - if Central Park never turned to rain would the total QPF allow for 20 plus? I know coastal Westchester county has 20 plus totals.

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That storm was so powerful. I was WEST of the major band and STILL ended up with 22 inches.

Question - if Central Park never turned to rain would the total QPF allow for 20 plus? I know coastal Westchester county has 20 plus totals.

The late phase kept the heaviest snowfall totals and rates to the North and east of many of us.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/daes/atmclasses/atm401/blizzard13_files/09Feb2013.pdf

[snowman19]

33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think a dry pattern is highly unlikely. Even when the pattern turns colder, we'll likely still be dealing with the Pacific jet as well as the classic Nino southern stream/subtropical jet. 

SSWE are also quite stormy once they get propagate down to the troposphere (see last March).

Cold and dry is certainly possible

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The late phase kept the heaviest snowfall totals and rates to the North and east of many of us.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/daes/atmclasses/atm401/blizzard13_files/09Feb2013.pdf

My 2nd favorite of all time behind 96.

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

My 2nd favorite of all time behind 96.

That storm was one of my few disappointments during this decade. Seems like powerful neg tilt phasing storms end up too far west like March 93 or east like February 13.

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That storm was one of my few disappointments during this decade. Seems like phasing storms end up too far west like March 93 or east like February 13.

I remember it being a super close call here...models had ticked east.  We got a foot from the over-running and just avoided the change to rain that LI had seen...  We caught the edge of the big band and got about 30 or slightly under.  Just 20 miles west of here and it was half that figure.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

On 12/31/2018 at 9:58 AM, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

I continue to like the period to begin sometime around Jan 10. My target period has been Jan 10 - Feb 20.

 

We are currently in p6 and should heading around into p8 over the next 2 weeks. We will have to wait for the p6 lag to bleed off so even though we head into p7 I think the transition will begin close to the 10th.

 

 

 

After that the alterations on the EPS day 9 - 14 vs yesterdays d 10 - 15 are already heading towards the GEFS which I like better. 

Hopefully these maps downloaded..

 

 

I don`t agree with the EURO taking the MJO into the null p after p7. The strat began to warm back on Dec 20 and it was similar to the warming that took place on Feb 20 earlier this year. The effects from that event ran from March 10 - April 20.

So this year the SSW event is a full 2 months earlier ( no 2 events are the same ) but the modeling looks like it wants to develop 3 vortexes.  One in Europe , One in Eurasia and One in the N/E N/A. 

These tend to run for about 60 days ( the caveat is where are they splitting ) .  I think this one works. 

 

 

I continue to like the period opined above , you can see the EPS looks even better to start off the period.

 

The old 10 -15 

 

The new day 5 - 10

 

 

PV-Forecast‏ @Forecas55175638 6h6 hours ago

More

The strat. vortex is currently weaker than all other years in the ERA interim record!!! The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -9.2 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -7.0 m/s 1985

 

 

 

Last night the weeklies were very cold through all of Feb starting in week 3 , but keep in mind that they were run off yesterdays 0z run which really corrected at 12z , so the speed at which this turns will be quicker.

So I continue to like the 10th as the start of ( the core comes after ) a pretty good winter period. 

 

[TJW014]

Could we be looking at a potential for thunder tomorrow?

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I remember it being a super close call here...models had ticked east.  We got a foot from the over-running and just avoided the change to rain that LI had seen...  We caught the edge of the big band and got about 30 or slightly under.  Just 20 miles west of here and it was half that figure.

Seeemd like many were ready to throw in the towel on that winter before the Euro first showed the phase 5 days earlier. It was nice having it pop up in the short range rather than a long and drawn out tracking event from further out in time. 

[purduewx80]

8 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

Could we be looking at a potential for thunder tomorrow?

slight chance morning thru midday.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

16 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

learn from prior years bud.   Sure it's exciting to see, but the weeklies have had the goods in the LR for about a month now with little movement forward.   First it was 12/20, then 1/1 then 1/15 and now we're pushing towards 2/1...

lol, no

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Seeemd like many were ready to throw in the towel on that winter before the Euro first showed the phase 5 days earlier. It was nice having it pop up in the short range rather than a long and drawn out tracking event from further out in time. 

Yep, it came at the end of a long cold dry period that had virtually no precip.  Saved what looked like a dud winter.

[donsutherland1]

18 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

I continue to like the period opined above , you can see the EPS looks even better to start off the period.

 

The old 10 -15 

 

The new day 5 - 10

 

 

PV-Forecast‏ @Forecas55175638 6h6 hours ago

More

The strat. vortex is currently weaker than all other years in the ERA interim record!!! The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -9.2 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -7.0 m/s 1985

 

 

 

Last night the weeklies were very cold through all of Feb starting in week 3 , but keep in mind that they were run off yesterdays 0z run which really corrected at 12z , so the speed at which this turns will be quicker.

So I continue to like the 10th as the start of ( the core comes after ) a pretty good winter period. 

 

I will be looking for run-to-run continuity on the EPS later today. That one now sees the very early stages of an evolution toward the pattern shown on the multiple cycles of the weeklies is encouraging.

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep, it came at the end of a long cold dry period that had virtually no precip.  Saved what looked like a dud winter.

And many were worried about our snowfall prospects following the record early November 12 snowstorm. I guess memories of the late October 11 snowstorm and what followed were still on their minds. But the ENSO following the early fall El Niño was different that the 11-12 raging +EPO La Niña.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I will be looking for run-to-run continuity on the EPS later today. That one now sees the very early stages of an evolution toward the pattern shown on the multiple cycles of the weeklies is encouraging.

 

Yeh Don , the alterations between yesterday`s 0z ( which the weeklies were run off ) and it`s 12z were very notable.

1st yesterday at 12z the EPS finally kicked the trough out of AK which has been pinned there for a month.

 

It has corrected towards the GFS in terms of amplitude in p7 and then is correct taking into p8 as seen below 

 

Both have struggled with the MJO in the RIMM plots as last week the GFS was absurd with 5 SD p7 , but the Euro was just as bad as it took into the NULL p.

The correction was a blend of the 2. 

What spooked a lot of people was the insistence by the EPS that the ridge would reside over the OHV thru the 18th or so , but now that has since corrected .

 

Not sure who or what snows by mid month ( it`s Jan so you just need N and a shortening of wave lengths for that to happen ).

 

What I like are the alterations 2 runs in a row as I believe you will continue to see a correction to the better look at 500 sooner not later. 

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

55 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I remember it being a super close call here...models had ticked east.  We got a foot from the over-running and just avoided the change to rain that LI had seen...  We caught the edge of the big band and got about 30 or slightly under.  Just 20 miles west of here and it was half that figure.

Actually the entire coast from Westport to New Rochelle had 20 plus.

Just inland had half

 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is why an above average to much above average snowfall is still very much on the table. Just one storm can get us close to average while an extended 5 to 6 week period (2014 2015, last March and April, 2004 2005) can bring the general area to 125 to 150% of average. Of course there are some big IFS that need to occur.

An extended period such as 14-15 is quite rare.  I've read both volumes of Early Americans Winters and there are only a few similar  periods . And you have to keep in mind it was a colder climate during the time period that the volumes cover. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Actually the entire coast from Westport to New Rochelle had 20 plus.

Just inland had half

 

I remember Danbury having 10 inches or something like that-crazy, that's only 17 miles NW of me.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

I remember Danbury having 10 inches or something like that-crazy, that's only 17 miles NW of me.

Agreed once you got inland away from coast it dropped a lot. But along the sound it was 20 plus to almost NYC.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

An extended period such as 14-15 is quite rare.  I've read both volumes of Early Americans Winters and there are only a few similar  periods . And you have to keep in mind it was a colder climate during the time period that the volumes cover. 

Agreed on 2014 2015. However, since we already have a 6 incher in the books it will not take too much to get us above average IF the pattern is good. Even if you throw out 2014 2015.

[Brian5671]

29 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

An extended period such as 14-15 is quite rare.  I've read both volumes of Early Americans Winters and there are only a few similar  periods . And you have to keep in mind it was a colder climate during the time period that the volumes cover. 

I'd think we'd possibly get 2 periods of 2-3 weeks each with a warmer interval in between (if we're lucky)  Alternatively we get one good 3 week period in (like 15-16) and then it's an early spring.