EastonSN+ Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 11:38 AM, weatherpruf said: It has been no better here. I know it's superstition, but generally, in recent decades, a early season snow has been followed by lame winters, and so have, statistically, snowless Decembers. Correlation isn't causation and all, but still. Expand On the flip side, 4 inches fell in Nov. 1995 and it was the snowiest winter ever. 4 inches fell Nov. 2002 and it was the 2nd snowiest winter. 6 inches fell 2012 and my area ended above average while NYC reached average. So for every 1989, 2011 there are the above cases. Basically early snow has no affect on winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 12:09 PM, 495weatherguy said: Some years, despite a favorable pattern, it just doesn’t want to snow. Haven’t we had a few years in the recent past where we have had significant snowfalls that were “thread the needle” type situations? Expand This century has been nothing short of epic. I have experienced only 4 below average snowfall winters so yes a lot of luck for us where we scored on thread the needle events. Perhaps this is the flip where nothing goes our way, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 1:05 PM, Brian5671 said: Theme of the winter...the great pattern and storm is always 10 days away only to correct warmer/no storm as we move into medium range... Expand The good news is that we haven’t deviated much from expectations based on El Niño and big November snowstorm climatology. We seldom had 6”+snowstorms from 12/1 to 1/15 on those years. Early winters do better with 6” snows during La Niña and neutral years. Last year was a great example of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 1:02 PM, bluewave said: Met winter DJF had one of the lowest snowfall totals in NYC through February 7, 2013. People were just about to throw in the towel for that winter before the Euro showed the storm just 5 days before. 1 1998-02-07 0.5 0 2 1919-02-07 0.6 0 3 1900-02-07 1.1 0 4 1932-02-07 1.6 0 - 1914-02-07 1.6 0 6 1973-02-07 1.8 0 7 1901-02-07 2.1 2 8 1992-02-07 2.2 0 9 1906-02-07 2.5 0 10 2007-02-07 2.6 0 11 2013-02-07 2.7 0 Expand 14-15 should be on that list too (at least through about Jan 15-20), because we barely got anything that winter before then. Thanks for the list, Chris, could you do one from Dec 1-Jan 15 or Jan 20 too just to compare to this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 1:34 PM, bluewave said: The good news is that we haven’t deviated much from expectations based on El Niño and big November snowstorm climatology. We seldom had 6”+snowstorms from 12/1 to 1/15 on those years. Early winters do better with 6” snows during La Niña and neutral years. Last year was a great example of this. Expand yep, and so was 1995-96! November snowfall and significant snowfalls in every month that followed right through April lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 1:29 PM, EastonSN+ said: On the flip side, 4 inches fell in Nov. 1995 and it was the snowiest winter ever. 4 inches fell Nov. 2002 and it was the 2nd snowiest winter. 6 inches fell 2012 and my area ended above average while NYC reached average. So for every 1989, 2011 there are the above cases. Basically early snow has no affect on winter. Expand I dont remember any snow in Nov 2002, but I do remember getting a trace in October that season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Parkway in Toms River was heavily brined. Doubt it was needed. Hoping for some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 1:05 PM, Brian5671 said: Theme of the winter...the great pattern and storm is always 10 days away only to correct warmer/no storm as we move into medium range... Expand So true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/9/2019 at 10:20 PM, SnowGoose69 said: It’s likely due to the warm AMO. I would expect over the next 20-25 years we will see less big events Expand the 70s and 80s were also just as aberrant, they were the only decades we averaged in the teens for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 1:44 PM, Bosswx said: Parkway in Toms River was heavily brined. Doubt it was needed. Hoping for some snow! Expand They're trying to use it up. My town has huge piles of rock salt that have barely been touched.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 1:49 PM, Brian5671 said: They're trying to use it up. My town has huge piles of rock salt that have barely been touched.... Expand Long Island has a new "snow fighting strategy" they said they expect to deploy when the big surprise snowstorms strike later this winter. It would be fun to get one of those- get a 2 ft blizzard when sunny skies and fair weather is expected lol, or have the forecast for a 2 inch rainstorm turn into a 2 ft blizzard (or a snow to changeover prediction turn into a 2 ft blizzard). None of those outcomes has happened in a long time but we've had the reverse (March 2001, Jan 2008). Boxing Day 2010 was the closest we've come to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 1:45 PM, LibertyBell said: the 70s and 80s were also just as aberrant, they were the only decades we averaged in the teens for snowfall. Expand Excellent point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 1:05 PM, Brian5671 said: Theme of the winter...the great pattern and storm is always 10 days away only to correct warmer/no storm as we move into medium range... Expand Since late November, the cold and snowy pattern changes stay at day 10+ and never move forward in time. The long range never advances and when it becomes medium range it corrects much warmer. It honestly reminds me of 2011-2012. Deja Vu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 1:44 PM, Bosswx said: Parkway in Toms River was heavily brined. Doubt it was needed. Hoping for some snow! Expand I legit washed my car yesterday too. And that road has gotten terrible with the potholes from the TR toll plaza southward the past two years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 2:02 PM, CarLover014 said: I legit washed my car yesterday too. And that road has gotten terrible with the potholes from the TR toll plaza southward the past two years Expand The potholes used to be really bad down on 72 in Manahawkin they recently paved them but it was like a dirt road. I dont think local roads were brined because Dover rd was not and 37 wasn't either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 2:03 PM, Bosswx said: The potholes used to be really bad down on 72 in Manahawkin they recently paved them but it was like a dirt road. Expand I am pleased that Route 37 has been paved recently. But, add some freezing rain to that fresh asphalt and it'll be a skating rink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 2:05 PM, CarLover014 said: I am pleased that Route 37 has been paved recently. But, add some freezing rain to that fresh asphalt and it'll be a skating rink. Expand Maybe this Sunday the snow will accumulate better on it. Temps will be perhaps in the 20s so maybe a 15:1 ratio could be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 1:59 PM, snowman19 said: Since late November, the cold and snowy pattern changes stay at day 10+ and never move forward in time. The long range never advances and when it becomes medium range it corrects much warmer. It honestly reminds me of 2011-2012. Deja Vu Expand Also the threats that stay snow, end up going way suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 2:09 PM, snowman19 said: Also the threats that stay snow, end up going way suppressed Expand I dont think that the AMO phase has been the cause of the big snowfall seasons. I think we are just getting bigger precip storms because of our climate changing and warmer air holding more moisture. It's not like our winters are getting colder, they're actually getting warmer, but in borderline events we are getting more snow because storms carry more moisture. You see that in the other seasons with more 3"+ rain events than we did before too. And places which are on the other side, like Washington DC, are actually seeing less snow now than they did in the 80s. So it's not about the AMO at all, it's about our changing climate. And once we warm up enough, guess what will happen- our snowfall averages will be where DC is now. It will happen before 2100 and maybe by 2050. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/9/2019 at 11:03 PM, 495weatherguy said: Excellent point! The way the winters have been around here that’s pretty much all we haven’t seen yet. I was always so jealous of those who lived “north and west” of NYC, we on LI would get rain while they cashed in. Now lots of snow is normal. Unreal Expand Yeah I grew up so envious of those living "north & west." 3" events in the city was enough to make me happy back then. That what I grew up under so like most things, ppl use there formative years as the baseline for the rest of their life. All these big snow events on a regular basis in the 2000s has been a dream come true, but I never got confortable with it. I feel it can end any time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 1:41 PM, LibertyBell said: yep, and so was 1995-96! November snowfall and significant snowfalls in every month that followed right through April lol Expand Yeah, It’s rare to get a 6”+ event during an El Niño from 12-01 to 01-15. Years with 12-01 to 01-15 snow of 6”+ since 1990 17-18 La Nina 16-17 La Nina 13-14 neutral 10-11 La Nina 09-10 El Nino 05-06 La Niña 03-04 neutral 02-03 El Nino 00-01 La Nina 95-96 La Nina 90-91 neutral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 2:18 PM, bluewave said: Yeah, It’s rare to get a 6”+ event during an El Niño from 12-01 to 01-15. Years with 12-01 to 01-15 snow of 6”+ since 1990 17-18 La Nina 13-14 neutral 10-11 La Nina 09-10 El Nino 05-06 La Niña 03-04 neutral 02-03 El Nino 00-01 La Nina 95-96 La Nina 90-91 neutral Expand and notice the El Ninos that did have them had a lot more blocking than this one and were stronger too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 2:18 PM, LibertyBell said: I dont think that the AMO phase has been the cause of the big snowfall seasons. I think we are just getting bigger precip storms because of our climate changing and warmer air holding more moisture. It's not like our winters are getting colder, they're actually getting warmer, but in borderline events we are getting more snow because storms carry more moisture. You see that in the other seasons with more 3"+ rain events than we did before too. And places which are on the other side, like Washington DC, are actually seeing less snow now than they did in the 80s. So it's not about the AMO at all, it's about our changing climate. And once we warm up enough, guess what will happen- our snowfall averages will be where DC is now. It will happen before 2100 and maybe by 2050. Expand DC has it bad..in terms of snowfall they might as well be Atlanta now. Meanwhile we have increasing snow avgs. The spread in avg snowfall is massive now over an area not *that* far apart. Prevailing storm tracks seem to consistantly suck for that area. Snow always to the north or south. Norfolk ends up doing better than DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 2:18 PM, dWave said: Yeah I grew up so envious of those living "north & west." 3" events in the city was enough to make me happy back then. That what I grew up under so like most things, ppl use there formative years as the baseline for the rest of their life. All these big snow events on a regular basis in the 2000s has been a dream come true, but I never got confortable with it. I feel it can end any time lol. Expand Well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 12:00 AM, donsutherland1 said: Beyond Phase 8, the MJO forecast is beginning to come into better focus on the guidance. Both the GEFS and EPS forecast the MJO to move to low amplitude values through Phase 8. For now, with the MJO only slowly losing amplitude, the baseline scenario remains the MJO's gradually moving through Phase 8 at a high but lowering amplitude. It would then move into Phase 1 and probably into a low amplitude at some point. As that happens, the AO could have some positive fluctuations before it returns to mainly negative values. Expand Don, any idea whether you think we still see a severe drop in the AO sometime in the next few weeks? At times is was talked about, and the various longe range modeling has blocking at top, yet when I check the CPC for the AO ensemble forecast it has been varying. Granted, negative, but not as much agreement on a big dive like there was a few days ago. In the background the SSWE continues and warming at the pole seems on target along with the hopeful lag effect of a -AO and eventual drop to negative with the NAO. Maybe the "steep" decline in the AO awaits a lag to hit, speculating later this month? Just wondering your thoughts on this, and maybe the CPC product is not the best indicator of the AO's furture forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 2:25 PM, dWave said: DC has it bad..in terms of snowfall they might as well be Atlanta now. Meanwhile we have increasing snow avgs. The spread in avg snowfall is massive now over an area not *that* far apart. Prevailing storm tracks seem to consistantly suck for that area. Snow always to the north or south. Norfolk ends up doing better than DC. Expand Yeah we had that in the 80s lol, more snow both south and north of us. Examples: 86-87, 87-88, 88-89, 89-90! Specific storms- all of 86-87, Vet Day 1987, Feb 1989, Dec 1989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 We're in the confluence zone between the two streams. The models that gave us significant overrunning had a much sharper Northern stream. Now that everything has flattened out it's suppression city. At this rate even DC might struggle to get much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 2:18 PM, LibertyBell said: I dont think that the AMO phase has been the cause of the big snowfall seasons. I think we are just getting bigger precip storms because of our climate changing and warmer air holding more moisture. It's not like our winters are getting colder, they're actually getting warmer, but in borderline events we are getting more snow because storms carry more moisture. You see that in the other seasons with more 3"+ rain events than we did before too. And places which are on the other side, like Washington DC, are actually seeing less snow now than they did in the 80s. So it's not about the AMO at all, it's about our changing climate. And once we warm up enough, guess what will happen- our snowfall averages will be where DC is now. It will happen before 2100 and maybe by 2050. Expand It will be interesting to see how long this snowy transition period lasts. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-02992-9 Recent boreal winters have exhibited a large-scale seesaw temperature pattern characterized by an unusually warm Arctic and cold continents. Whether there is any physical link between Arctic variability and Northern Hemisphere (NH) extreme weather is an active area of research. Using a recently developed index of severe winter weather, we show that the occurrence of severe winter weather in the United States is significantly related to anomalies in pan-Arctic geopotential heights and temperatures. As the Arctic transitions from a relatively cold state to a warmer one, the frequency of severe winter weather in mid-latitudes increases through the transition. However, this relationship is strongest in the eastern US and mixed to even opposite along the western US. We also show that during mid-winter to late-winter of recent decades, when the Arctic warming trend is greatest and extends into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, severe winter weather—including both cold spells and heavy snows—became more frequent in the eastern United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 2:29 PM, LibertyBell said: Yeah we had that in the 80s lol, more snow both south and north of us. Examples: 86-87, 87-88, 88-89, 89-90! Specific storms- all of 86-87, Vet Day 1987, Feb 1989, Dec 1989 Growing up loving snow in NJ sucked in the 80s.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 3:05 PM, Superstorm said: Growing up loving snow in NJ sucked in the 80s. . Expand Jan 87 was awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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