SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 On 1/4/2019 at 2:48 PM, bluewave said: And many were worried about our snowfall prospects following the record early November 12 snowstorm. I guess memories of the late October 11 snowstorm and what followed were still on their minds. But the ENSO following the early fall El Niño was different that the 11-12 raging +EPO La Niña. Expand 11-12 ended up being what 10-11 should have been. 10–11 was the strongest La Niña since 88-89 and for whatever reason it behaved like an El Niño with insane blocking and storminess. I’m guessing it was a lag. We’ve seen the lag effect many times before. 96-97 ended up being what 95-96 should have been based on ENSO. 93-94 seemed like an El Niño but was neutral and 95-96 may have been an El Niño STJ lag with all the storminess. Exactly why I wouldn’t be surprised to see 19-20 possibly act more El Niño like than this winter did simply because we will have been in an El Niño base state for a long time where as this year we exited what was basically back to back cold neutrals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 On 1/4/2019 at 3:46 PM, Brian5671 said: I'd think we'd possibly get 2 periods of 2-3 weeks each with a warmer interval in between (if we're lucky) Alternatively we get one good 3 week period in (like 15-16) and then it's an early spring. Expand At this point even a single 2-3 week period would be a major improvement. I live in NE Mass. Only 1 1/4 of snow during the last 45 days. At this point it's going to take either significant storms or a good 2.5-3 month stretch to get to normal snowfall for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 On 1/4/2019 at 4:01 PM, SnowGoose69 said: 11-12 ended up being what 10-11 should have been. 10–11 was the strongest La Niña since 88-89 and for whatever reason it behaved like an El Niño with insane blocking and storminess. I’m guessing it was a lag. We’ve seen the lag effect many times before. 96-97 ended up being what 95-96 should have been based on ENSO. 93-94 seemed like an El Niño but was neutral and 95-96 may have been an El Niño STJ lag with all the storminess. Exactly why I wouldn’t be surprised to see 19-20 possibly act more El Niño like than this winter did simply because we will have been in an El Niño base state for a long time where as this year we exited what was basically back to back cold neutrals Expand I believe 10-11 was just a continuation of the record Atlantic blocking which began in June 09. For whatever reason, it is rare to get 2 cold La Nina’s together. 93-94 was effectively a weak modoki El Niño with the warm neutral conditions in Niño 4. We have seen how several times 0 to +0.5 c ENSO SST’s behaved like an official weak El Niño. In 12-13 how we got the El Niño winter progression following the September 12 weak El Niño conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 On 1/4/2019 at 3:46 PM, Brian5671 said: I'd think we'd possibly get 2 periods of 2-3 weeks each with a warmer interval in between (if we're lucky) Alternatively we get one good 3 week period in (like 15-16) and then it's an early spring. Expand If we can hold some sort of El Niño semblance I think there’s a tendency for spring to be mild. There aren’t a ton of cases of back to back El Niño’s (I think just 4 in the last 80 years) but I believe they all had warm early springs following the first winter. 1953 and 1991 I think are two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 6:24 PM, forkyfork said: that convection is pumping the pac subtropical ridge and that keeps the flow across the ocean compressed. thus we can't get a s/w to wave break and get the -epo rolling Expand Yeah that's a chunk of it for sure...other component is AAM. At least these AAM trends look a bit better of late.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 On 1/4/2019 at 4:01 PM, SnowGoose69 said: 11-12 ended up being what 10-11 should have been. 10–11 was the strongest La Niña since 88-89 and for whatever reason it behaved like an El Niño with insane blocking and storminess. I’m guessing it was a lag. We’ve seen the lag effect many times before. 96-97 ended up being what 95-96 should have been based on ENSO. 93-94 seemed like an El Niño but was neutral and 95-96 may have been an El Niño STJ lag with all the storminess. Exactly why I wouldn’t be surprised to see 19-20 possibly act more El Niño like than this winter did simply because we will have been in an El Niño base state for a long time where as this year we exited what was basically back to back cold neutrals Expand JB has mentioned on several occasions that the cool down following the 15-16 Nino wasn't as significant as the cool down following other El Ninos. Actually I think the pattern during the last several weeks has been rather typical of an El Nino. It will be interesting to see if the Nino weakens or strengthens as the year moves along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 On 1/4/2019 at 4:15 PM, SnowGoose69 said: If we can hold some sort of El Niño semblance I think there’s a tendency for spring to be mild. There aren’t a ton of cases of back to back El Niño’s (I think just 4 in the last 80 years) but I believe they all had warm early springs following the first winter. 1953 and 1991 I think are two Expand I’m still of the opinion that March is warmer than normal this time around, unlike the last few. El Niño climo as one reason yes. Another factor is that the +QBO will be strengthening and descended into the bottom of the stratosphere by the beginning of March. I think the high latitude blocking breaks down, pattern retrogrades and it’s spring time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Gefs has a nice signal for a coastal on the 13th. Pattern looks great midmonth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 We need at minimum a flash flood watch for most of the area from late tonight through late tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 On 1/4/2019 at 5:27 PM, snowman19 said: I’m still of the opinion that March is warmer than normal this time around, unlike the last few. El Niño climo as one reason yes. Another factor is that the +QBO will be strengthening and descended into the bottom of the stratosphere by the beginning of March. I think the high latitude blocking breaks down, pattern retrogrades and it’s spring time Expand I would not mind that after the snow we received in Morris County last March (we had at least 40", when you count April 2nd, give or take). Of course, super fun to watch it happen... not so fun when the little league fields aren't playable yet, or your backyard is muddy, or the kids just want to go outside. It would bemuse me if we had a Red Flag warning in March or April (we usually do) if it turns warmer, if only after all of this rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 How long do you think the benchmarks set in Nov. will hold up? ie. a 6.4" surprise Snow event on the 15th, and a 15* low near Thanksgiving. I mused a month ago here, that neither of these would set a record if they held up for the entire winter season---and that was scary. The only snow record in play would seem to be 'Fewest Measureable Snow Events' in a season. I am assume that it is greater than one time! For the temperature, how about 'Fewest 32 Degree Lows' and 'Fewest Highs 32 and Under'(each unknown by me). Normal is like 80/20 or so, Oct-May? We are 17/2 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Euro coming in hot for the 13th/14th; a lot like the past few runs of the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Well, it's nice to finally have a potential threat to track, at least. Euro gives us some nice cold air to work with before the storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 On 1/4/2019 at 6:53 PM, purduewx80 said: Euro coming in hot for the 13th/14th; a lot like the past few runs of the EPS. Expand Gefs and geps have a good signal for the 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 On 1/4/2019 at 7:14 PM, bluewave said: It could shift warmer in a flash like the GEM and FV3 with the pacific so unfavorable. Expand The PAC is no longer unfavorable after the 10th. You shut off the flow here in W Canada and driving the ridge thru Montana. These SW`s are all going to start shifting colder. Different regime after the 12th + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 You `re in p8 so the ridging in the SE is gone as the NEG is diving off the W/C and not into the 4 corners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 On 1/4/2019 at 7:29 PM, bluewave said: Looks like the same thing that the EPS was indicating for the middle of next week before it corrected to a warmer track. I don’t really trust these models with anything frozen near the coast past day 5 with such an unfavorable Pacific. But if it should survive to within 120 hrs...then game on. But I don’t want to buy so far out in time. Expand The corrections are post Jan 10. Look at what is waiting for the system after the 10th on the EPS, Then both the GEFS and Euro OP dive this that NEG off the WC and drive the ridge between Boise and Montana The PAC is slower here and that SW never makes into the 4 Corners. The 9th had this in front of it Again the 13th will have this out ahead of it. Pre game / Night and Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 All that strong convection down South today should help to pump the ridge and drag the heavier rains and dynamics further West for tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Are you really expecting a change of 22 degrees, from 52>30 in one run, on D!0 no less, to hold up? Most likely the EPS is embarrassing itself for the fourth time recently, with these one-run blowoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 On 1/4/2019 at 7:52 PM, CIK62 said: Are you really expecting a change of 22 degrees, from 52>30 in one run. Most likely the EPS is embarrassing itself for the fourth time recently, with these one-run blowoffs. Expand Is the GEFF is embarrassing itself too ? Guys , wake up the warm up is ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 On 1/4/2019 at 7:58 PM, bluewave said: Look how the Euro is struggling from run to run past 120 hrs with such a fast Pacific flow. Expand Chris , the corrections began at 12 z yesterday post d10 , so I think you are looking at a different 500 evolving here. I think you are going to see this continue in that direction as the MJO continues thru p8 I always like to wait until we are inside 5 days before I even look at E/C storms , but I think this is pretty good look off OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 On 1/4/2019 at 8:14 PM, bluewave said: The control looks just like the GEM. Expand Plenty of time to sort it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Models should trend colder due to the favorable mjo projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 On 1/4/2019 at 8:27 PM, bluewave said: You can see the warmer risks with a more amped up system like the GEM and 0z Euro. But if the Euro can hold serve till under 120, then it will be something to watch. I am just tired of these cold solutions day 6-10 that get pushed back. Expand EVERY storm since mid DEC shifted N , so I feel your pain. The only thing I kept alluding too away was that being in p5 the ridging should have been expected. Now I think the error is east once past the 12th or so . We will see I think the risk here is east not west this time in the L/R. I agree let`s circle back in 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 On 1/4/2019 at 6:26 PM, NJwx85 said: We need at minimum a flash flood watch for most of the area from late tonight through late tomorrow. Expand new NAM doesn't have all that much precip- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 On 1/4/2019 at 8:32 PM, Brian5671 said: new NAM doesn't have all that much precip- Expand Garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 On 1/4/2019 at 8:35 PM, NJwx85 said: Garbage Expand I just looked at all the models, most are similar-RGEM does have a bullseye over NJ.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 On 1/4/2019 at 8:31 PM, NEG NAO said: with SHOULD being the keyword - 13th to 14th is too early and that coastal the Euro shows on the 13th won't verify like that it - either won't happen or be another system to go west of us - when is the last time a day 9 model run worked out ? Expand I'm not buying ANYTHING (Cold, snow etc) until it's within 5 days-so many teases going back to mid-December only to verify warm and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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