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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Totally anecdotal, but we are perilously close to the point when the overall tenor of this season should pull a complete 180, so always have to be on guard that this is the gateway system.

That is why I think it will be a more powerful storm in the end Ray, normally these pattern changing storms are powerhouses as they open the arctic door.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Totally anecdotal, but we are perilously close to the point when the overall tenor of this season should pull a complete 180, so always have to be on guard that this is the gateway system.

I follow ...   

I was sort of leaving the implicit option open there for the N/stream to show back up... I don't see any reason why it won't - it's just abandoned ... Whether that is "for now" or "for always" yeah, 5.5 days is plenty of time. duh -

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I follow ...   

I was sort of leaving the implicit option open there for the N/stream to show back up... I don't see any reason why it won't - it's just abandoned ... Whether that is "for now" or "for always" yeah, 5.5 days is plenty of time. duh -

That is curious....I think from here on out the N steam is going to often be under modeled and will really assert itself. If this system gets it done, then that would be why IMO. 

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5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Basically, the models have gone from a full phase to a non-phaser and instead the northern stream provides the cold air injection and leaves the southern stream disturbance enough room to amplify up the coast.

The non bold portion I agree with ..absolutely. 

The bold part sounds like one of your patented imagination exerpts - buuut, I'm not saying any of that is untrue. Just that to be careful to filter that through analytical thinking/comparative to guidance before assuming that's the right interpretation.  Just as a constructive critique, we should all strive to that sort of weighting internally before we expose our thinking to the outside world. 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The non bold portion I agree with ..absolutely. 

The bold part sounds like one of your patented imagination exerpts - buuut, I'm not saying any of that is untrue. Just that to be careful to filter that through analytical thinking/comparative to guidance before assuming that's the right interpretation.  Just as a constructive critique, we should all strive to that sort of weighting internally before we expose our thinking to the outside world. 

I think he may have taken my "gateway system" comment too literally....it was just a metaphor.

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1 minute ago, Mr. Weather said:

What do we think it’s going to be like for the Patriots game on Sunday?

Wild, blizzard conditions with three feet of snow on the field, Tom Brady throws a TD pass to Gronk in a foot of snow, after they just plowed the field during a fourth-quarter timeout as the Patriots win 7-0.

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You were the first one i thought of being in your new location that this track will work for your area as well.

Wilmington and Methuen are very similar....Methuen is just a bit more resistant to coastal fronts and do better in SWFE.

Snowfall difference is negligible, but retention and increased potential for icing are relatively substantial due to the coastal front issue.

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1 minute ago, Mr. Weather said:

Thanks for the response. Will be coming in from out of state and not use to the weather there. I know it’s still a few days out so a lot can still change but about how much are we talking? Want to pack appropriate. 

Oh well then, sorry for the sarcasm, hopefully that is what ends up happening, but in reality, probably a few inches and a few wind gusts to 35-40mph with temperatures near 20F

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wilmington and Methuen are very similar....Methuen is just a bit more resistant to coastal fronts and do better in SWFE.

Snowfall difference is negligible, but retention and increased potential for icing are relatively substantial due to the coastal front issue.

Yeah I suspect that if you compare my numbers for the last few years, they are probably very close snowfall wise.

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