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January 2019 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark

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There it is... the inevitable ensemble carpet surfacing phenomenon... scouring for that "nugorshard"

That's what urban dictionary refers to for that accidental rock discard of crack that an addict scours the carpet hoping to find ... A kernel big enough to get 'em high during withdrawals. 

I say we indoctrinate that expression to mean the denial phase of a storm loss ...  Example: " ... The community took a collective sigh of relief during the nugorshard phase of the modeling debacle when a  new model threat appeared..."

Only eeks...  That is a god aweful GFS run after the 13th... I mean really - must NCEP parameterize the model to not storm?  amazing  

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I like the way those contours are pointing NNE

what site shows those individual members , would like to see the 144/156 for southern slower ensembles as well off Delmarva 

PSU ewall maybe? that site is hard on mobile though, TT just easier to check while taking a potty at work.

138:

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_24.png

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEFS looks take it inside of the BM and just off of ACK.

I think the color toning toward yellow is probably the bigger take away too - 

one of the big ones anyway...

It's the spread - ...showing the uncertainty is vectored - in this case ... - toward a semblance of greater impact. 

Thing is, that product strikes me as "place holders" for a bigger deal - ...boy, the real culprit, the more I look things over, is that abandonment of the N/stream ... Basically, ... a "Christiner"

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I think the color toning toward yellow is probably the bigger take away too - 

one of the big ones anyway...

It's the spread - ...showing the uncertainty is vectored - in this case ... - toward a semblance of greater impact. 

Thing is, that product strikes me as "place holders" for a bigger deal - ...boy, the real culprit, the more I look things over, is that abandonment of the N/stream ... Basically, ... a "Christiner"

Basically, the models have gone from a full phase to a non-phaser and instead the northern stream provides the cold air injection and leaves the southern stream disturbance enough room to amplify up the coast.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think the color toning toward yellow is probably the bigger take away too - 

one of the big ones anyway...

It's the spread - ...showing the uncertainty is vectored - in this case ... - toward a semblance of greater impact. 

Thing is, that product strikes me as "place holders" for a bigger deal - ...boy, the real culprit, the more I look things over, is that abandonment of the N/stream ... Basically, ... a "Christiner"

Totally anecdotal, but we are perilously close to the point when the overall tenor of this season should pull a complete 180, so always have to be on guard that this is the gateway system.

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