Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 51 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Actually the EPS, our statistically best medium to longer range forecasting tool is taking the MJO rapidly back into phase 5. So don’t get too excited yet there buddy. More 100% false info from a HS kid. Come on dude. Stop doing this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 You can see how the forcing (this is basically divergence at 200mb which would allow for convection) was centered near 135E and only slowly moved eastward. This are what I was looking at when I was speaking about the PAC jet back a couple of weeks ago. Now we have some subsidence moving through with another weak wave moving in later this month. But look how weak it is with some areas of possible forcing along the equatorial regions. This is why some guidance has in in the COD...it can't get a coherent signal. This likely would be a good thing to get a more favorable Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Per Don Sutherland: “Beyond Phase 8, the MJO forecast becomes more muddled. The EPS rapidly takes it to phase 5, mainly at a low amplitude by January 21. The GEFS takes it to a low amplitude and then loops it back into Phase 7. Based on a blend of the guidance, the baseline scenario is that the MJO would gradually move through Phase 8 at a high but lowering amplitude.” You have no clue. Be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 So Don must have no clue either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 12 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: So Don must have no clue either. He says it will gradually move through phase 8...what is your malfunction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You can see how the forcing (this is basically divergence at 200mb which would allow for convection) was centered near 135E and only slowly moved eastward. This are what I was looking at when I was speaking about the PAC jet back a couple of weeks ago. Now we have some subsidence moving through with another weak wave moving in later this month. But look how weak it is with some areas of possible forcing along the equatorial regions. This is why some guidance has in in the COD...it can't get a coherent signal. This likely would be a good thing to get a more favorable Pacific. I dunno I don't like those rmm plots. The continued COD bias they have had and they get side tracked with other noise in the atmosphere. Looking at that though, kind of agrees with Mike's Vp maps. Looks like current wave should hold into the IO from what I'm seeing. I guess the little convection in the maritime continent is what is throwing the rmm plots for a loop as to determine which is the wave to focus on? So basically they re caught in between both forcing mechanisms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Gfs still has a light snow event off the vistigial southern steam. The main difference I can tell is the northern stream handling. It's backed off the amplitude of the northern stream substantially so there's less diving in lakes to do the subsume capture scenario-that's really the only difference because the southern stream is actually been quite consistent last several cycles. Can somebody vet that the GFS data of formatting claim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Gfs still has a light snow event off the vistigial southern steam. The main difference I can tell is the northern stream handling. It's backed off the amplitude of the northern stream substantially so there's less diving in lakes to do the subsume capture scenario-that's really the only difference because the southern stream is actually been quite consistent last several cycles. Can somebody vet that the GFS data of formatting claim? The past couple runs have moved away from a well timed pv lobe but the initial h5 look thru friday is more organized and thus, a good or even better southern stream. If this continues, it becomes a decent quick hitting one stream wave. Not bad to get us back on winter’s horse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Looks like were going to get some northern stream interaction this run on the 0z GFS on the weekend system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Improved gfs. Confluence further north above our heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks like were going to get some northern stream interaction this run on the 0z GFS on the weekend system. Oh yeah...this should be more fun vs 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Partial phase this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Oh yeah...this should be more fun vs 18z. Northern stream s/w diving down the back if that southern stream s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 GGEM is a whiff....big hit for Mid-atlantic though. Kind of like PDI in 1979. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Not quite enough up here but better run for south coast and cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Where's my boy Zeus? I got a big banana for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Yea, almost. Kinda wierd how it has the trailing vort over the rockies dig west into the ridge instead of droping into the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I’m starting to feel more confident in something....unsure what but doubt it’s a miss completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Entertaining anyways, But wake me up when the Euro gets interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Entertaining anyways, But wake me up when the Euro gets interested. Euro isn't the model it use to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Mid to upper levels suggests the storm is a biggie on the 00z GFS, more QPF than it shows, and perhaps a deeper surface low, although the phase wasn't complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro isn't the model it use to be Ha, Still scores higher then the others............lol, Like i said, When its gets interested, I'll get interested, You want to hang your hat on the GFS, have at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Congrats ACY on both GFS and GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM is a whiff....big hit for Mid-atlantic though. Kind of like PDI in 1979. From cutter to big Maine crusher to a Mid Atl special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: Congrats ACY on both GFS and GGEM. Actually congrats CC not ACY on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: From cutter to big Maine crusher to a Mid Atl special. Given that it ranks at the bottom for accuracy, we should like this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Actually congrats CC not ACY on the GFS Damn casinos trying to steal Harwich’s snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Given that it ranks at the bottom for accuracy, we should like this run. It’s the canadian global version of the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Given the tremendous mid-levels modeled by the 00z GFS, I think more QPF is likely given the track of the 700mb low, that is almost a perfect track. The mid-level 500mb low opens up a tad as it passes through the 75w Longitude line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: From cutter to big Maine crusher to a Mid Atl special. Not gonna cut with that massive banana high overhead. Biggest risk is suppression, I believe it's a Mid-Atlantic special but a lot of time for changes. Big precip shield possible though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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